Box Office Preview [Archive] - The Superhero Hype! Boards

Excel

01-16-2006, 05:54 PM

Marketing
Superman’s marketing will be the key to weather Superman Returns reaches the uber blockbuster status some are predicting. So far, the films had 1 teaser trailer that aired with Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire.It grossed around 290 million in the U.S. and is approaching 900 million worldwide. So its teaser, which was mildly effective, has gotten very big exposure. It’s teaser poster is in theaters and features just the logo. It’s leaving a lot to the mind. With supposably no super bowl spot planned e some might be alarmed at what could be considered a lack of marketing. To describe what’s going on and what’s going to happen, Ill compare this campaign to that of two movies-Batman Begins and Star wars episode 3. At this point, Batman Begins had 2 posters and 2 trailers. It had a superbowl spot. It then had tie ins with March Madness. But what happened? They showed us a lot of marketing early on and when June rolled around, there was nothing. A few tv spots and ad’s but the marketing budget was drained. Star Wars on the other hand, at this point had, like Superman, one teaser trailer that basically got word out the movie was coming. It had a poster that basically said the movie was coming, and left much to the mind. It had no super bowl spot or tie ins with college sports. Obviously Superman’s marketing is comparable to that of Star Wars, and whose marketing turned out to better - Batman or Star Wars? Star wars instead saved its marketing money for May when it counted, and rode a wave of free marketing (read below) to make up for its lack of official stuff, and then bombarded us in the quiet early weeks of May creating a huge hype machine. It was smart marketing and looks to be what W.B.’s doing with Superman.

Free marketing-free marketing is basically press. Star Wars dominated thislast year and the return of the man of steel looks to do the same this year. It’s magazine covers, articles, talked up on show’s like Entertainment Tonight or Access Hollywood. Superman should ride a wave of free press till June when they’ll release the real good stuff. After a theatrical trailer(hopefully a really good one ala Star Wars) with Blockbuster disaster flick POSEIDON, exposure will be mild to big. Then when everything that’s supposed to get the public interested is released, expect hype to blow up

Effect-good for now, possibly great around release

*update: i seem to have been right. superman has gotten incredible free marketing, and the marketing is exploding in may and june like i thought. 3 trailers and posters in may, and in june all the tie ins and tv spots are being released. the hype is growing and 26 days to go, it should be mammoth.

Theater count
Theater count will defiantly be in favor of Superman Returns. Opening unmatched on June 30th, Superman is the sole release that will be fighting for screens. The week before features Adam Sandler’s comedy CLICK, which should do his usual 40 million opening and a 120 finish. That will have around 3200 theaters. Garfield 2 and Cars will both still be in 2000. With just CLICK over 3000, and probably just over, Superman Returns will probably open into at least 3800 theaters, probably around 4100, or possibly break the theater count record (4223) and get about 4250

Effect-good

*update. 4000 look slike a good estomate, sa cars will still 3000 and click will be in 3200-3400. the man of steel will open to abut 4000 on wednesday and probably increase to 4050 on friday.

Competition
With nothing opening against and no real big threat’s in their second weekend, The Man of Steels big screen revival has arguably the most anticipated film of next year in its second weekend; the box office juggernaut Pirates of the Caribbean 2: Dead Mans chest. If it stays on the Friday that should open to 100 million 3 day with relative ease. Talk has it moving back to the following Wednesday but that doesn’t look like it’s happening. The fact is that film appeals to each one of Superman’s prime audiences-the action, kids, and romance genres. Granted superman action will be bigger, it’s more of a kids movie, and the love story plays a bigger part, it will still surely eat into Supermans second weekend. But the fact is Superman should still be in over 4000 theaters which will limit pirates to around 3500-3700 theaters. Add in that if superman opens big it wont lose screens at these theaters and that Pirates should be long(original was 163 minutes), there will be a lot of Pirates sell outs that’ll give Superman more audience. So similar to how Narnia had more screens and show times then Kong did, Superman should have more screens and show times then Pirates 2 will.

Effect-negative

*update-while still negative it obviously isnt as big of problem cause superman moved up to wednbesday.

Release date
Possibly Superman’s biggest positive source is his release date. The July 4th holiday is always a huge movie time and it will inflate Superman’s opening weekend and week. This inflation means that with good word of mouth, it will help Superman in his second weekend cause if his first weeks 150 million of good word of mouth, that’ll spread and help it’s second weekend out greatly. It also gives Superman time to get a big head start on Pirates of the Caribbean2 for the summer title, as most think it’ll come down to these 2 for the title of biggest film of the summer and possibly of the year.

Effect- very positive

Character name appeal and recognition
Lets be honest, Superman’s the most famous superhero ever created and his world renown recognition ranks up there with Jesus Christ. His logo is second only to the cross. He’s survived for near 70 years in American pop culture and remains big today. The fact is, he’s immensely popular and the name SUPERMAN is a bigger draw then any actor around. His fan base in terms of size is second to none. Not as dedicated as Star Wars or Potter, but in terms of size it’s the biggest

Effect: positive

What could happen:
Lots of things could happen with this flick. What could happen is hype spreads fast and big but the film doesn’t deliver and Pirates 2 does. If this is the case, a 65 million 3 day/105 million 5 day opening en route to a 235 million dollar domestic total and 525 world wide.

What might happen
The only comparison Superman really has right now is what happened with Star Wars: Episode 1. Star wars and Superman were both very popular franchise that were popular with everybody-kids, teens, adults-in 70’sand 80’s and are very fondly remembered by most. They were the 2 flagship franchises into SPECIAL EFFECTS. When Star Wars returned in 1999, it’s hype built extremely easily due to the pent up demand from such a popular franchise being gone for so long(it was 16 for them, its 19 for Superman), and the same might happen to Superman. If the film delivers and this happens, expect a 76 3 day/125 5 day, and a 170 million opening week and a total around 340-360 million in the U.S. and near 800 million world wide, even with Pirates of the Caribbean 2.

What will happen:
Heres what I think is going to happen though-Superman Returns will open into around 4000 theaters with immense hype and have a opening day of 28 million, with about 5-6 million from combined midnights and 10 pm. screenings. on thursday it will fall to 16 million, and rise on friday to 25 million. itll increase a bit to 25.5 milion and drop to 22.5 million on sunday for a 3 day take of 73 million, and a 5 day of 117 million. a monday drop to 19 million and a tuesday drop to 14 million give it an opening week of 150 million.
wednesday will see a 50% drop to 7.5 milion, and another 6.8 million on thursday. friday se a 55% friday-to-friday drop, for about
11.5 million, 14 million on saturday, and then 10 million sunday for a second weekend of 35.5 million, -49%, and giving it a 12 day total of 200 million, and ending out around 283 million in the united staes, and about 342 million overseas for a huge 625 million worldwide take.

dr collossus

01-16-2006, 06:01 PM

Er...ok.

Where did you get all those figures from? They all seem a bit arbitrary.

Weadazoid

01-16-2006, 06:12 PM

Excell how much do you think Pirates will make? I think your numbers are a bit high, wouldn't think so if it had may date and only one or two other movies around it.

Weren't you 100% sure Pirates would move at one point... hey it could still happen, films have been known to flinch look at F4.

also your SW compariosn is a bit off IMO

The Og Star wars made 307 Million before any re isses in 1977 Superman did not even make half in 1978

Excel

01-16-2006, 06:18 PM

pirates....115/345 i doubt itll move after the success of narnia in the battle it had with kong. but i dont think a 90/280s high.....

Weadazoid

01-16-2006, 06:28 PM

I think SR will run at about 90 to 100 on opening weekend, it will be the 4rth of July movie to go see, where it's legs carry it still left to be seen. I want to say it reaches 300 Million easily domestic but hey I thought the same of Kong, now that seems impossible.

the only thing that hurst Supes is this

Superman $134,218,018 12/15/1978
Superman II $108,185,706 6/19/1981
Superman III $59,950,623 6/17/1983
Superman IV: The Quest for Peace $15,681,020 7/24/1987

that is a SERIOUS drop in public support now I know this movie will erase memories of the Quest and I know 1987 is long time ago, but it still lingers in the back of my mind.

just a reminder Star wars

Star Wars $307,263,857 5/25/1977
Star Wars (Re-issue) $15,476,285 8/13/1982
Star Wars (Special Edition) $138,257,865 1/31/1997

is and wil always be in a leuague of it's own when it comes to fan bases.

Do you think if they re edited Superman TMP in 1998 (Instead of ever doing the Quest) the numbers to go see it again would have been huge.

Excel

01-16-2006, 07:02 PM

well superman 2 woulda beaten superman 1 except it opened against a small, 240million dollar blockbustercalled raiders of the lost arc.

Fatboy Roberts

01-16-2006, 07:37 PM

134 Million in 1978 was nothing to sneeze at. At the time, I believe it was the 9th highest grossing movie ever. top ten all time boxoffice straight out the gate is pretty impressive.

I also don't think people will consider it an either/or thing with Superman and Pirates of the Caribbean. People will choose both. If anything, it might prolong the legs both films will have, because people who see the one will see the other the next weekend

Mentok

01-16-2006, 07:43 PM

What will happen:
Heres what I think is going to happen though-Superman Returns will open into around 4000 theaters with immense hype and have a opening day of 29 million, and a Saturday of 33. The July4th holiday will create a inflated Sunday/Monday gross, and with good word of mouth, Returns will get 30 on Sunday for an opening weekend of 92 million. Its Monday gross will be 26 and its Tuesday gross will be 18 for a 5 day gross of 136 million and it’ll have 150 million 1st week. Another 44 million in it’s second week for a 10 day total of 194 million, and a U.S. total of 280 million and a world wide total of 640.

Sounda about right, although I am not a Box Office whore and am not that good at judging those things...

... I wonder how much it will take in DVD sales.

Mr. Socko

01-16-2006, 08:27 PM

I hate how people mention how bad Batman Begins did compared to Revenge of The Sith. Star Wars Episode III was destined to do great because of the HUGE fan base and it being the very last Star Wars movie(to our knowledge, you know how George Luca$ works, but that is another story for another time). The last Batman movie before Begins did awful leaving a bad taste in everyone's mouth so they had they doubts about a Batman Begins. Superman has been anticipated for a very long time and we haven't had a Superman movie since the 80s and a good Superman movie since the 70s. So lets compare it to something realistic and not Batman Begins. Star Wars Episode I, it had been 16 years since the people had a Star Wars movie and when Episode I came out, everyone was in line to see it. I definitely see Superman returns doing over 600 worldwide, it'll probably get the highest gross of the year.

Cinemaman

01-17-2006, 07:35 AM

Excel, I don't think it will be true.

1. "Star Wars" is popular franchise and that is why Revenge of the Sith (ROTS) didn't have big marketing.
I think SR should have some bigger, but not like BB.

2. ROTS released on May 19th, it wasn't a hard month to break $300m cross. And SR will be on June 30th, that is why I doubt SR will have more than $370m.

3. July 4th isn't a problem for movie like Superman. This superhero is American icon, so I think it will help SR to get big money.

4. Look at Spidey 2. It was realesed on 30th June too, but it had $373m.

5. People thought that Kong would win compitition with Narnia. But it didn't. Narnia realesed one week earlier than Kong, and now it had $546m in worldwide.

6. About SR vs. POTC2, look at competition between Spidey and Star Wars II. It look like competotion between SR and POTC2. Plus, Spidey was realesed a one week before Attack of Clones.

7. I don't think POTC will have bigger box-office than SR in Domestic. But I don't think SR will have bigger box-office than POTC2 in overseas.

8. American people likes this hero, children and teenagers will go to see this great movie.

9. In overseas people likes POTC, so POTC2 will have a big money.

10. I think SR should have more than $35m opening day.

11. Look at competition between Spidey 2 and King Arthur.
Of course I don't think POTC2 will not have more than $300m.

12. My forecast.

SR
Domestic: $340m-350m
Overseas: $370-380m
Worldwide: $720m-730m

POTC2
Domestic: $290m-300m
Overseas: $390m-400m
Worldwide: $680m-$690m

kakashi

01-17-2006, 02:18 PM

I'm not a box office expert....and not really good at judging those things.

Excel, i'm sure those points you mentioned in your post such as release date, competition and name appeal will help SR box office performance. I just personally don't think that SR will be THAT huge a success.

There's one more thing that could be a stumbling block in my opinion. People might see SR as ' just another Superman movie'

Don't get me wrong...i definitely think that SR will be succesfull...Just not as succesfull as some of us might expects.

Personally i think it will make as much money as BB...maybe a bit more...or a bit less.

ohmshalone

01-17-2006, 07:48 PM

special effects don't sell movies anymore as much as they did in the 80's and 90's ( I wasn't born in the 70's, but I'm guessing they did then too), at least that's what I think is one of the reasons the Box office is going down.

SR needs to really deliver in the non-action scenes to make it big

Superchan

01-17-2006, 08:28 PM

While nothing can compare to starwars's appeal, Superman's iconic status and the movie's quality (if good/great) will launch SR into box office gold. I personally think superman's box office triumph will be oversees, and a 400-450million international take is well within reach if the movie's quality is high, since donner's original did about 456 million internationally (adjusted from 163 million). People really shouldn't underestimate superman's international appeal, as it easily surpasses his domestic one!
Domestically, I could see superman doing 280-310 million if again the movie's quality lives up to expectations.
This leaves SR at the 700 million mark, with DVD and merchandising guaranteeing us many sequels to come.
As for Pirates, sure the movie will have a huge opening, but not even johnny depp's great performance will champion the movie if it doesn't live up to the original, which is rarely the case with sequels. Never the less, pirates will do great B.O. (after all, its designed for it!), and like Fatboy Roberts stated, there is no reason why these 2 massive movies wouldn't help instead of sink eachother at the B.O.

ohmshalone

01-17-2006, 08:35 PM

As for Pirates, sure the movie will have a huge opening, but not even johnny depp's great performance will champion the movie if it doesn't live up to the original, which is rarely the case with sequels.

hasn't Hollywood found the cure for sequalitis?

Spider-man 2, X2

there not as immediately recognisable as better movies over their predessesors (sp?) as much as terminator 2, but...? Hollywood's getting better at finding a path for sequals

EDIT: but fine, i guess you're talking about money, not quality

Superchan

01-17-2006, 09:08 PM

hasn't Hollywood found the cure for sequalitis?

Spider-man 2, X2

there not as immediately recognisable as better movies over their predessesors (sp?) as much as terminator 2, but...? Hollywood's getting better at finding a path for sequals

EDIT: but fine, i guess you're talking about money, not quality

Very true, but those are exceptions to the rule. Sequals rarely live up to their predecessors.

Mentok

01-17-2006, 11:08 PM

Spider-Man 2 sucked :down

Scooter

01-17-2006, 11:09 PM

Spider-Man 2 sucked :down

:down

Mentok

01-17-2006, 11:20 PM

It did :o

Scooter

01-17-2006, 11:42 PM

It did :o

Well, maybe...but at least it wasn't as bad as Superman: The Movie.

:o :down

Excel

01-18-2006, 11:21 PM

imo superman 2 is still the best super hero sequel n will never be toped. perfect in everyway.

Cinemaman

01-19-2006, 11:56 AM

The one thing that I afraid is competition.
Examples:
2002 Spidey vs. Star Wars - Spidey won.
2003 POTC vs. T3 - POTC won
2004 Spidey2 vs. King Arthur - Spidey2 won.
2005 Kong vs. Narnia - I think Narnia will win.
2006 SR vs. POTC2

SR realesed one week before POTC2 will, so SR should have about $200m in sesond weekend.
And SR will win because it has kids and teens.
But sometimes I thinks that there would be a situation like T3 vs. POTC.
And sometimes I thinks there will be a situation like Spidey vs. SW.

explode7

01-20-2006, 10:04 AM

Cinemaman

01-20-2006, 10:08 AM

Believe me people SR wont make much overseas because everyone I asked said they are expecting POTC2 more since I live in the Caribbean. They just watched SR pics of BR and their reaction were like they don't care. But I still think it might do 200 million if thats any good for u guys and your BO predictions.

U lives in Caribbean, POTC.
In overseas SR will make more than $350m, believe me.
When people see SR trailer, they will say it is cool.

dark_b

01-20-2006, 10:25 AM

Cinemaman

01-20-2006, 10:30 AM

king arthur??? this is not a summer blockbuster :o

King Arthur
Release Date: July 7, 2004 (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/schedule/?view=bydate&release=theatrical&date=2004-07-07&p=.htm)
Domestic: $51,882,244 25.5%+ Overseas: $151,518,000 74.5%= Worldwide: $203,400,244

Cinemaman

01-20-2006, 10:33 AM

Believe me people SR wont make much overseas because everyone I asked said they are expecting POTC2 more since I live in the Caribbean. They just watched SR pics of BR and their reaction were like they don't care. But I still think it might do 200 million if thats any good for u guys and your BO predictions.

Look at competition between Spidey and SW or Spidey 2 and KA.
And SR vs. POTC2 will be like KK vs. Narnia.

Excel

02-25-2006, 11:13 PM

supermans wide appeal assures a huge oveseas gross, likely over 350 million.

Cinemaman

02-26-2006, 10:26 AM

I am sure SR will make more than $300m domesticly.

And I am sure it will make more than $350m in overseas.

And I am sure it will make more than $680m in worldwide.

Hunter Rider

02-27-2006, 04:29 PM

I think $250M US is about right with between $550M-600M WW

Showtime

02-27-2006, 04:34 PM

I think $250M US is about right with between $550M-600M WW

250 million is probably right around target, I am giving it a little more and sticking with my 280 million.

explode7

02-27-2006, 06:21 PM

^ I'll give it a 220M.

Showtime

02-27-2006, 06:23 PM

^ I'll give it a 220M.

I think you're lowballing it just a bit...more likely between 240million and 260 million, but I am sticking with 280 million.

explode7

02-27-2006, 06:27 PM

Lets just wait and see then we'll see who's right ok?

Showtime

02-27-2006, 06:29 PM

Lets just wait and see then we'll see who's right ok?

Sure, whats the bet then?

explode7

02-27-2006, 06:31 PM

^ A hamburger.

SuperDaniel

02-27-2006, 06:50 PM

Bah. Superman Returns is going to make 300 million for sure!

Showtime

02-27-2006, 06:51 PM

^ A hamburger.

I prefer cheese, how about whomever loses has to use an avatar picture of the winnders choosing for one week.

explode7

02-27-2006, 06:55 PM

Yeah agreed. I don't know whats that but agreed.

sameone

03-11-2006, 10:50 AM

Superman returns 185 domestically and around 200 in foreigh box for a WW take of 385 million. Slightly better than the BB WW take.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 10:53 AM

Superman returns 185 domestically and around 200 in foreigh box for a WW take of 385 million. Slightly better than the BB WW take.

This is the dumbest forecast I ever heard.

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 10:56 AM

This is the dumest forecast I ever heard.

You do realize he has already decided that Superman Returns will fail

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:01 AM

You do realize he has already decided that Superman Returns will fail

As I understood he is X-fan and Super-hater.

sameone

03-11-2006, 11:04 AM

You do realize he has already decided that Superman Returns will fail

No exactly as I feel it will do better WW than BB. The two will be in the same ballpark.

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 11:05 AM

As I understood he is X-fan and Super-hater.

From what I understand he does like Superman but just not this Movie & he thinks that what ever he thinks is fact & if he hates a Photo or anything else then everyone else in the World hates it as well just because he does & he thinks People are FORCING themselves to like this Movie just because he does not & this is the exact reason why he got banned at BlueTights under his old nick lexlives. He was going around saying his word is fact & he was speaking for everyone & the mods one day got sick of it.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:11 AM

No exactly as I feel it will do better WW than BB. The two will be in the same ballpark.

What? This is real crap.

SR is big light movie blockbuster, it can't make these low numbers.

It will be able to get $300m domesticly and make more than $650m in worldwide.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:12 AM

From what I understand he does like Superman but just not this Movie & he thinks that what ever he thinks is fact & if he hates a Photo or anything else then everyone else in the World hates it as well just because he does & he thinks People are FORCING themselves to like this Movie just because he does not.

He is crazy man.

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 11:14 AM

He is crazy man.

& what I said is exactly why he got banned at BlueTights. He was speaking for everyone & was going into every single Thread like he does here saying how this stinks / that stinks etc mods just got annoyed one day despite warnings he wouldnt stop & he uses old ass articles to try to proove his points. Which of course each has been debunked by newer articles

sameone

03-11-2006, 11:20 AM

What? This is real crap.

SR is big light movie blockbuster, it can't make these low numbers.

It will be able to get $300m domesticly and make more than $650m in worldwide.

HP did not make 300 million this past year and it is bigger than Superman - a broader appeal. 300 mil - even X-Men is not going to do that and POTC will probably do just short of that.

If the trailer is as stylized, understated and lacking in "gotcha" as was the teaser don't see a huge rush to see this film so the 300 mil figure to me looks totally off the wall.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:23 AM

HP did not make 300 million this past year and it is bigger than Superman - a broader appeal. 300 mil - even X-Men is not going to do that and POTC will probably do just short of that.

If the trailer is as stylized, understated and lacking in "gotcha" as was the teaser don't see a huge rush to see this film so the 300 mil figure to me looks totally off the wall.

Look, you just don't want to understand it.

Superman has million fans in all world, and in USA too.

POTC2 will make huge BO, but it will not hurt SR.

And full trailer will come only in May.

So you says stupid f***ing words.

Please go away from this forum.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:24 AM

& what I said is exactly why he got banned at BlueTights. He was speaking for everyone & was going into every single Thread like he does here saying how this stinks / that stinks etc mods just got annoyed one day despite warnings he wouldnt stop & he uses old ass articles to try to proove his points. Which of course each has been debunked by newer articles

Yep, he is really boring and stupid person.

sameone

03-11-2006, 11:25 AM

Look, you just don't want to understand it.

Superman has million fans in all world, and in USA too.

POTC2 will make huge BO, but it will not hurt SR.

And full trailer will come only in May.

So you says stupid words.

Please go away from this forum.

I think when the trailer is released in may we will all be able to "true up" our predictions one way or the other.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:27 AM

I think when the trailer is released in may we will all be able to "true up" our predictions one way or the other.

No, every movie have a full trailer to have big numbers in BO, it is marketing.

And we all can predict SR box office.

But your predictions are stupid.

Venom71

03-11-2006, 11:30 AM

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 11:30 AM

And if BB made only $203m, it doesn't mean anything.

BB was like X-Men, and SR will be like Spidey.

But Batman and Superman have more powerful and strong hystory than X-Men and Spidey.

Venom71

03-11-2006, 11:32 AM

I think when the trailer is released in may we will all be able to "true up" our predictions one way or the other.
You couldn't just say we will see which of our preditions was right? True Up???? WTH? :eek:

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 11:33 AM

lexlives is all alone with what he thinks

Excel

03-11-2006, 11:35 AM

You couldn't just say we will see which of our preditions was right? True Up???? WTH? :eek:

lol he means if the trailers good hell raise his predicts but if itsucks hell lower them.

the more i see it, im loving my 90/100-325 prediction.

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 11:36 AM

lol he means if the trailers good hell raise his predicts but if itsucks hell lower them.

He already thinks the Movie sucks I doubt the Trailer will end up any different for him

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 12:02 PM

lol he means if the trailers good hell raise his predicts but if itsucks hell lower them.

the more i see it, im loving my 90/100-325 prediction.

I can agree with your forecast (90/100 in opening weekend, 325 domesticly).

But I doubt it will get 90-100m opening weekend. It will be realesed on June 30th, and even Spidey 2 didn't make more than $85m.

So I think it will make about $83-86m, because it will be realesed on Friday.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 12:14 PM

Crossing $300M with POTC2 opening the next week is highly unlikely

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 12:16 PM

Crossing $300M with POTC2 opening the next week is highly unlikely

As you think, for you it is.

But for me, it isn't.

And SR will have big opening weekend (I am sure in it), which can help him to continue good BO after POTC2 premiere.

dark_b

03-11-2006, 12:19 PM

i think it will be something like the star wars movies.
the fanbase is like with SW.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 12:25 PM

As you think, for you it is.

But for me, it isn't.

And SR will have big opening weekend (I am sure in it), which can help him to continue good BO after POTC2 premiere.

Even if it makes $100M in it's first weekend (Which i doubt) that means it needs to make triple that over the next weeks with the biggest film of the summer as it's competition,it's just not realistic

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 12:42 PM

Even if it makes $100M in it's first weekend (Which i doubt) that means it needs to make triple that over the next weeks with the biggest film of the summer as it's competition,it's just not realistic

In our world all can be realistic.

The same here.

SR makes $600m domesticly, that is not realistic.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 12:50 PM

In our world all can be realistic.

The same here.

SR makes $600m domesticly, that is not realistic.
I'm sorry but that doesn't really make sense,you can't ignore logic

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:00 PM

I'm sorry but that doesn't really make sense,you can't ignore logic

So you think if it is Superman, it can't make huge BO?

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 01:03 PM

So you think if it is Superman, it can't make huge BO?

No i never said that did i ?

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:05 PM

No i never said that did i ?

But it sounds like you want to say it.

sameone

03-11-2006, 01:08 PM

lol he means if the trailers good hell raise his predicts but if itsucks hell lower them.

the more i see it, im loving my 90/100-325 prediction.

The trailer and if it gets the general movie going audience which seems lukewarm on this film to change their minds and go wow will make a difference.

I don't think it will - based on everything so far beiong released kind of not living up to my expectations. The trailer then probably won't either.

I have factored that into my 185 mill domestic box estimate. If the trailer surprises me and is WOW material then I'd up my estimate to 210 million or so. Beating out BB by a bit domestically.

Everything is really riding on the trailer now - maybe too much so but WB has inadvertently caused that by not giving out any other stuff like a second teaser or more movie posters that you normally would get.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 01:08 PM

But it sounds like you want to say it.

See cinemaman that is where we differ,i love Superman the character and I'm cautiously hopeful this will be a good movie but i don't ignore logic when talking box office just because I'm a fan
POTC2 and SR being so close together will eat into both movies BO and both will not likely reach $300M IMO

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:13 PM

See cinemaman that is where we differ,i love Superman the character and I'm cautiously hopeful this will be a good movie but i don't ignore logic when talking box office just because I'm a fan
POTC2 and SR being so close together will eat into both movies BO and both will not likely reach $300M IMO

Look, I am a fan of Superman and POTC too. But why didn't say it to others?
Most people from these boards says that it can make $300m.

sameone

03-11-2006, 01:13 PM

See cinemaman that is where we differ,i love Superman the character and I'm cautiously hopeful this will be a good movie but i don't ignore logic when talking box office just because I'm a fan
POTC2 and SR being so close together will eat into both movies BO and both will not likely reach $300M IMO

I totally agree hunter.

Realism is in order. How many movies break 300 mil - few. I actually think POTC will almost but not quite reach that number.

BB was a great movie with great buzz once it opened, lots of repeat business, in theatres till September but it only made 205 domestically.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:14 PM

I totally agree hunter.

Realism is in order. How many movies break 300 mil - few. I actually think POTC will almost but not quite reach that number.

BB was a great movie with great buzz once it opened, lots of repeat business, in theatres till September but it only made 205 domestically.

You don't use logic and realism too.

You are just hater.

VGPOP

03-11-2006, 01:17 PM

Marketing-

What will happen:
Heres what I think is going to happen though-Superman Returns will open into around 4000 theaters with immense hype and have a opening day of 29 million, and a Saturday of 33. The July4th holiday will create a inflated Sunday/Monday gross, and with good word of mouth, Returns will get 30 on Sunday for an opening weekend of 92 million. Its Monday gross will be 26 and its Tuesday gross will be 18 for a 5 day gross of 136 million and it’ll have 150 million 1st week. Another 44 million in it’s second week for a 10 day total of 194 million, and a U.S. total of 280 million and a world wide total of 640.

SR opens on a Friday. I just don't see this movie with so much hype and anticipation at that particular time to open with less than $30 million. There hasn't been a Superman movie for 18+ years and since Superman II (25+ years)(the last good Superman movie). SR will probably open at midnight, Friday June 30th (I'll go at that time if available AND I'll go AGAIN Friday night with my girlfriend and her whole family). Now, I don't know how much money it will make for its midnight showings (which they will add it to the opening day), but I can tell you this: I see this movie making at least $40 million opening day. And I'm basing that just on a teaser and that loooooooonnnnnggggggg wait for Superman fans. If the theatrical trailer is something beyond this world, watch out. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Superman fans will flock theaters the first day, that's a guarantee.

I can't give a prediction on this movie because I haven't seen a theatrical trailer yet.

But Superman hardcore fans can push this movie and that long wait for $40 million without a problem on Friday, June 30th.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 01:18 PM

Look, I am a fan of Superman and POTC too. But why didn't say it to others?
Most people from these boards says that it can make $300m.

These boards are hardly the epicenter of good BO predicitng as last years BB threads showed

I have had SR at number 2 on every review ive done for BO in 2006,you just want to brand me a "hater" becuase i won't say it will make $300M

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:19 PM

SR opens on a Friday. I just don't see this movie with so much hype and anticipation at that particular time to open with less than $30 million. There hasn't been a Superman movie for 18+ years and since Superman II (25+ years)(the last good Superman movie). SR will probably open at midnight, Friday June 30th (I'll go at that time if available AND I'll go AGAIN Friday night with my girlfriend and her whole family). Now, I don't know how much money it will make for its midnight showings (which they will add it to the opening day), but I can tell you this: I see this movie making at least $40 million opening day. And I'm basing that just on a teaser and that loooooooonnnnnggggggg wait for Superman fans. If the theatrical trailer is something beyond this world, watch out. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Superman fans will flock theaters the first day, that's a guarantee.

I can't give a prediction on this movie because I haven't seen a theatrical trailer yet.

But Superman hardcore fans can push this movie and that long wait for $40 million without a problem on Friday, June 30th.

$40m? Are you kidding?

Man, it will hardly make $36m.

sameone

03-11-2006, 01:20 PM

$40m? Are you kidding?

Man, it will hardly make $36m.

Both these numbers for the first day are over the top IMO. I saw 25 million the first day.

Venom71

03-11-2006, 01:23 PM

The trailer and if it gets the general movie going audience which seems lukewarm on this film to change their minds and go wow will make a difference.

I don't think it will - based on everything so far beiong released kind of not living up to my expectations. The trailer then probably won't either.

I have factored that into my 185 mill domestic box estimate. If the trailer surprises me and is WOW material then I'd up my estimate to 210 million or so. Beating out BB by a bit domestically.

Everything is really riding on the trailer now - maybe too much so but WB has inadvertently caused that by not giving out any other stuff like a second teaser or more movie posters that you normally would get.
Why do you constantly speak and think you know how everyone feels about this movie? The general public isn't on these message boards or other movie message boards like we are and don't know as much about the film as we do...heck most of the general audience doeesn't know about the movie so how would you know that the general public are lukewarm about SR? The general public will know more about it once the trailer and the TV spots are released....thats what will really get the word out. You really just need to stop.:down

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:23 PM

Both these numbers for the first day are over the top IMO. I saw 25 million the first day.

For me, $26-36m are possible.

VGPOP

03-11-2006, 01:23 PM

$40m? Are you kidding?

Man, it will hardly make $36m.

No, I'm not kidding. I'll be here on Saturday, July 1st when the estimates come out in the morning.

If I have to guess, SR grabs $3-$4 million for midnight showings. And $35-$38 million for the rest of the day. And that's calculating at a $40 million opening day.

You'll see....:up:

sameone

03-11-2006, 01:28 PM

Why do you constantly speak and think you know how everyone feels about this movie? The general public isn't on these message boards or other movie message boards like we are and don't know as much about the film as we do...heck most of the general audience doeesn't know about the movie so how would you know that the general public are lukewarm about SR? The general public will know more about it once the trailer and the TV spots are released....thats what will really get the word out. You really just need to stop.:down

The general public that has seen the trailer teaser or the still seems to be lukewarm. That is what I was referring to. But a lot of the gp does not know SR is coming yet - true. Which is why WB is remiss IMO in not starting to go with a few billboards in key cities. The other summer flicks started their billboard campaigns in early February.

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:29 PM

No, I'm not kidding. I'll be here on Saturday, July 1st when the estimates come out in the morning.

If I have to guess, SR grabs $3-$4 million for midnight showings. And $35-$38 million for the rest of the day. And that's calculating at a $40 million opening day.

You'll see....:up:

Believe me man, SR can't make Spidey 2 numbers.

But we will see who is right.

VGPOP

03-11-2006, 01:30 PM

Believe me man, SR can't make Spidey 2 numbers.

But we will see who is right.

We will.....

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:30 PM

superkong 500

03-11-2006, 01:35 PM

Spider-Man 2 sucked :down

Iam with you, it could have been so much better, specialy with the lame cheesy moments and dialogue.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 01:35 PM

Man, all people, who I know, know that SR will come soon... on June 30th.

So you are wrong.
you can't speak for the world though Cine

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 01:38 PM

Everything is really riding on the trailer now

YOUR OPINION

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:40 PM

you can't speak for the world though Cine

As he can't too.

But all people know that it is coming soon.

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 01:42 PM

The general public that has seen the trailer teaser or the still seems to be lukewarm. That is what I was referring to. But a lot of the gp does not know SR is coming yet - true. Which is why WB is remiss IMO in not starting to go with a few billboards in key cities. The other summer flicks started their billboard campaigns in early February.

Yeah. That was the exact same tactic used for Fantastic Four last year....and look how that turned out.

Let's face it lexlives, you just have no patience....that's what it comes down to. And you will kick and scream until you are proven otherwise. (Which there is no reason to believe you will no matter how much good stuff is released)

I mean, I don't recall you showing up here the night about 2 weeks ago that about 5 pics were released and the internet was buzzing......

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 01:43 PM

As he can't too.

But all people know that it is coming soon.

You just cotradicted yourself

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:44 PM

Cinemaman

03-11-2006, 01:47 PM

You just cotradicted yourself

Are you sure?

I have no doubts in it.

People know Superman and they also know that SR will be realesed in summer.

There were magazines and teaser-trailer, I think it is enough.

Besides, the big part of our world have internet.

sameone

03-11-2006, 02:07 PM

Yeah. That was the exact same tactic used for Fantastic Four last year....and look how that turned out.

Let's face it lexlives, you just have no patience....that's what it comes down to. And you will kick and scream until you are proven otherwise. (Which there is no reason to believe you will no matter how much good stuff is released)

I mean, I don't recall you showing up here the night about 2 weeks ago that about 5 pics were released and the internet was buzzing......

I was not on the net the weekend, last weekend, when the pics were released.

The Clark and Clark Lois stuff looks OK. Not great but pretty good.

Routh as Clark has not been the issue for me.

The Routh as Superman photo was not so good. Not the worst yet but the weak spit curl, the hair looking pasted on like Reeve's did in IV. And the look - Routh has a very large nose and in that photo of Superman that was obvious. For me Superman is a perfect male specimin with a perfectly proportional nose.

Its not about not being able to wait its about WB delaying way past normal the start of their marketin campaign. POTC, X-Men and MI are in full swing now. Spiderman 2 had billboards up 4 months before the premier and BB had lots more stuff by now.

I feel they are mis-marketing this and assuming too much goodwill on the part of the general public towards Superman.

At the very least they should now be doing those picture releases like last week every week or at least every 2 weeks. That would not cost them a dime.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 02:49 PM

Are you sure?

I have no doubts in it.

People know Superman and they also know that SR will be realesed in summer.

There were magazines and teaser-trailer, I think it is enough.

Besides, the big part of our world have internet.

Not what i meant

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-11-2006, 03:34 PM

The movie will soar in the first 5 days to over 125 million.. will it have staying power.. well that maybe different.

sameone

03-11-2006, 03:43 PM

The movie will soar in the first 5 days to over 125 million.. will it have staying power.. well that maybe different.

Staying power is the key. Do you know BB was in theatres through September - even with a 3 month plus play it made just a little over 200 million domestically. It would never have done that if it hadn't gotten an extended run thanks to positive word-of-mouth.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-11-2006, 03:45 PM

I did know that..but this is superman..I'm expecting very big things..even my friends here at disney think it will do well.

sameone

03-11-2006, 03:56 PM

I did know that..but this is superman..I'm expecting very big things..even my friends here at disney think it will do well.

You work for Disney?

So what do you/your Disney cohorts think of Carl Icahn's plans/desire to have TW split into 4 companies. With WB films becoming an independent entity? Would the film division be better off as totally independent?

Venom71

03-11-2006, 04:04 PM

You work for Disney?

So what do you/your Disney cohorts think of Carl Icahn's plans/desire to have TW split into 4 companies. With WB films becoming an independent entity? Would the film division be better off as totally independent?
Are you trying ot impress people by throwing this guy's name around? If so...you aren't impressing me.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-11-2006, 04:08 PM

You work for Disney?

So what do you/your Disney cohorts think of Carl Icahn's plans/desire to have TW split into 4 companies. With WB films becoming an independent entity? Would the film division be better off as totally independent?

I can't speak for my friends...

quite frankly? i couldn't care less..i'm here to disscuss superman returns.

sameone

03-11-2006, 04:12 PM

I can't speak for my friends...

quite frankly? i couldn't care less..i'm here to disscuss superman returns.

OK, SR andPOTC - why did not one studio release July 4th weekend and the other late July?

Both films get hurt this way IMO and though I am a Superman fans given that POTC is the stronger franchise Returns should have moved to late July.

It would have brought big crowds in again which would give POTC a month later boost and SR might have been at the top of the box for or 3 weeks.

The scheduling stinks.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-11-2006, 04:17 PM

OK, SR andPOTC - why did not one studio release July 4th weekend and the other late July?

Both films get hurt this way IMO and though I am a Superman fans given that POTC is the stronger franchise Returns should have moved to late July.

It would have brought big crowds in again which would give POTC a month later boost and SR might have been at the top of the box for or 3 weeks.

The scheduling stinks.

Well no not really, Being a big movie fan..most will see both..as both has sparked interest.. both can be watched by a younger audiance..which Batman Begins lost alot of revenue to.Being at the top doesn't mean a thing..have you seen some of the crap that goes to the top spot?

sameone

03-11-2006, 04:21 PM

Well no not really, Being a big movie fan..most will see both..as both has sparked interest.. both can be watched by a younger audiance..which Batman Begins lost alot of revenue to.Being at the top doesn't mean a thing..have you seen some of the crap that goes to the top spot?

Yeah, but a back to back opening is not wise. Variety had a piece on the crowded may/June/July movie debuts this year. How some films will uinderperform for it. But X-Men, coming in the middle and POTC at the end were likely to suffer least which is traditional it sounds like.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-11-2006, 04:25 PM

Venom71

03-11-2006, 04:34 PM

Both movies will do extreamly well.. This is superman the mac daddy of Super heros he is going to soar again... Pirates was a suprise hit for us.. Judgeing how well the first did,this is why this will do well.. kind of like the matrix.. the first was a suprise hit the second only did well because of the first.

all 3 movies will do well..unfortunatly its threads like this that try to make rivelry between the movies.
I agree:up:

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 06:05 PM

Yeah, but a back to back opening is not wise. Variety had a piece on the crowded may/June/July movie debuts this year. How some films will uinderperform for it. But X-Men, coming in the middle and POTC at the end were likely to suffer least which is traditional it sounds like.There are some interesting B.O. fallacies with major films opening on the same weekend. One theory suggests that audiences will flock to the more popular film (whatever that might be) and the other film(s) will unduly suffer because of that. But Brandon Gray of BOM (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/) wrote a column a while back where he suggested that the B.O. does quite well when multiple popular films open concurrently. There's spill over (if the desired film is sold out, people often pay to see the other one anyway) and there's age restriction deception (G, PG, and PG-13 films often do better when a popular R-rated film plays because teens often purchase tickets to those films and then illegally enter the R-rated ones.)

That said, USA Today printed an interesting article/questionnaire (http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2006-media-forecast.htm) for readers on January 12th of this year. Among the many questions posed was this one:

Which of these sequels will have the biggest three-day opening weekend box office?
1. Big Momma's House 2
2. Ice Age 2
3. Mission Impossible III
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
5. The Santa Clause 3
6. Superman Returns
7. X-Men 3

(Interesting to note even USA Today is labeling SR a sequel.)

Anyhoo, here's what their "experts" predicted:

Marla Backer (Research Associates): POTC
Christopher Dixon (GGCP): POTC
Mark Greenberg (AIM Leisure Fund): MI
Dennis McAlpine (McAlpine Associates): XM3
Hal Vogel (Vogel Capital Management): POTC
Tom Wolzien (Wolzien LLC): POTC

BOP (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/) posted a three part editorial on film financing, selling and ROI back in May of 2004. It's a nice read for those interested. Enjoy...

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8353
http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8354
http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8359

sameone

03-11-2006, 06:19 PM

There are some interesting B.O. fallacies with major films opening on the same weekend. One theory suggests that audiences will flock to the more popular film (whatever that might be) and the other film(s) will unduly suffer because of that. But Brandon Gray of BOM (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/) wrote a column a while back where he suggested that the B.O. does quite well when multiple popular films open concurrently. There's spill over (if the desired film is sold out, people often pay to see the other one anyway) and there's age restriction deception (G, PG, and PG-13 films often do better when a popular R-rated film plays because teens often purchase tickets to those films and then illegally enter the R-rated ones.)

That said, USA Today printed an interesting article/questionnaire (http://www.usatoday.com/money/media/2006-media-forecast.htm) for readers on January 12th of this year. Among the many questions posed was this one:

Which of these sequels will have the biggest three-day opening weekend box office?
1. Big Momma's House 2
2. Ice Age 2
3. Mission Impossible III
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
5. The Santa Clause 3
6. Superman Returns
7. X-Men 3

(Interesting to note even USA Today is labeling SR a sequel.)

Anyhoo, here's what their "experts" predicted:

Marla Backer (Research Associates): POTC
Christopher Dixon (GGCP): POTC
Mark Greenberg (AIM Leisure Fund): MI
Dennis McAlpine (McAlpine Associates): XM3
Hal Vogel (Vogel Capital Management): POTC
Tom Wolzien (Wolzien LLC): POTC

BOP (http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/) posted a three part editorial on film financing, selling and ROI back in May of 2004. It's a nice read for those interested. Enjoy...

http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8353
http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8354
http://www.boxofficeprophets.com/column/index.cfm?columnID=8359

Well Bryan calls it a vague sequel or has called it that so USA Today is not wrong to label it as such.

interesting none of the marketing experts predicted SR to do the biggest 3 day weekend. So much for long anticipated film. Little doubt it will be POTC.

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 06:44 PM

Well Bryan calls it a vague sequel or has called it that so USA Today is not wrong to label it as such.Indeed. Sad, but it's the way it is, unfortunately.

interesting none of the marketing experts predicted SR to do the biggest 3 day weekend. So much for long anticipated film. Little doubt it will be POTC.I tend to agree. But another article I had read recently compared the opening w/e of SR with that of X-Men3 (X-Men3 was predicted to do better among the two) suggested that SR would make it up in the foreign market. I confess to being a little confused by this assumption since BB was (apparently) the only blockbuster film last year to make less coin in the worldwide B.O. than it did domestically. This isn't to say that SR will follow in kind, but it's in the same genre - and so is X-Men for that matter - so I'm baffled by this prediction. The writer didn't elaborate on any bias for or against the Superman franchise among foreign audiences either. http://www.patcostello.com/smileys/shrug.gif

sameone

03-11-2006, 06:48 PM

Indeed. Sad, but it's the way it is, unfortunately.

I tend to agree. But another article I had read recently compared the opening w/e of SR with that of X-Men3 (X-Men3 was predicted to do better among the two) suggested that SR would make it up in the foreign market. I confess to being a little confused by this assumption since BB was (apparently) the only blockbuster film last year to make less coin in the worldwide B.O. than it did domestically. This isn't to say that SR will follow in kind, but it's in the same genre - and so is X-Men for that matter - so I'm baffled by this prediction. The writer didn't elaborate on any bias for or against the Superman franchise among foreign audiences either. http://www.patcostello.com/smileys/shrug.gif

In the US X-Men 3 will likely do 250 - 280 million and SR 185 - 210 so I agree with the writer on the domestic box for X-Men being better. Foreign, SR will do better than X-Men but neither may do as well as they do domestically. FF did poorly in the foreigh box too.

Weadazoid

03-11-2006, 07:20 PM

In the US X-Men 3 will likely do 250 - 280 million and SR 185 - 210 so I agree with the writer on the domestic box for X-Men being better. Foreign, SR will do better than X-Men but neither may do as well as they do domestically. FF did poorly in the foreigh box too.

Jeezus man if SR olny tops out at about 210 Million people will jump off bridges in the forum

it cost 250 Million to make...according to Box ofice Mojo and that doesn't even include Marketing

If it opens on the 4rth and pulls only 210.... the series is dead in the water WB will never authorize a sequel

sameone

03-11-2006, 07:29 PM

Jeezus man if SR olny tops out at about 210 Million people will jump off bridges in the forum

it cost 250 Million to make...according to Box ofice Mojo and that doesn't even include Marketing

If it opens on the 4rth and pulls only 210.... the series is dead in the water WB will never authorize a sequel

To clarify I said 185 to 210 domestically and I predict about 185 foreign for a total WW of 370 - 395. It will do slightly better than BB WW I think.

BB did 205 domestically and 167 or so foreign for a total of around 372 million.

You are right that if it just does 210 domestically there would be a sequel.

A BB sequel has been green lighted but you have to figure BB cost just 150 million to make so it turned a nice profit. Not great like Spiderman of course.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 07:31 PM

I see it more around 250-275 Domestic and around the 500M WW mark

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 07:34 PM

In the US X-Men 3 will likely do 250 - 280 million and SR 185 - 210 so I agree with the writer on the domestic box for X-Men being better. Foreign, SR will do better than X-Men but neither may do as well as they do domestically. FF did poorly in the foreign box too.Interesting. You're probably pretty close there, though I think you might be a little high for X-Men, and a tad too low for SR. I know next to squat about the new X-Men film, but the first film grossed $157M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=xmen.htm) and the second one did $215M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=x2.htm) (domestically). Considering the latter grossed $215M in 2003 and BB only did $205M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=batmanbegins.htm), a few theories could be put forward.

The first one seems obvious: superhero films are declining in popularity (Spider-Man grossed $404M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman.htm) in 2003, while its sequel, S-M2, did $374M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman2.htm) in 2004.) Box office attendance has also fallen over the last few years, due in no small part to the explosion of electronic entertainment options as well as a prevailing preference among film goers to wait for the film to hit home video. Back in the 70's, I used to go to the theater once a week. Every Friday night - it was like clockwork. If I go five or six times a year now, it's a LOT. Seriously. And I still enjoy movies - even "stupid" ones LOL.

Back to SR... Warners is currently the top studio right now in handling films overseas, so that might be why the writer of the other article thought SR would do better in the foreign market. Doesn't explain BB slump in that dept., but poop happens, I guess.

Last November, Dave Poland of The Hot Button (http://www.thehotbutton.com/) made some interesting points about Warners recent business approach to sharing production budget costs. He wrote (http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/hot.button/2005_thb/051107_mon.html):

"[Even though] Legendary Pictures was taking on "at least" half the cost of Superman Returns, this fact doesn't change the profitability potential of Superman Returns, but it does limit the studios profitability upside to such a degree that unless Superman grosses more than $700 million worldwide, it would have to be considered a loss leader, not endangering overall profitability for the year but unlikely to enhance it much either."

Worldwide...
X-Men (2000) grossed $296M
Spider-Man (2002) grossed $822M
X-Men 2 (2003) grossed $406M
Spider-Man 2 (2004) grossed $784M
Batman Begins (2005) grossed $372M
Fantastic Four (2005) grossed $330M

(I could look up more, but I'm lazy LOL)

Anyhoo, SR *could* do $700M worldwide, but it's gonna be re-heeeeeeeely difficult, IMHO. I don't know what it is about the Spider-Man franchise, but every other superhero franchise including Batman is lucky to break $400M worldwide. And SR production budget was what? $250M Something ridiculous like that? They're gonna be counting Every. Last. Dime. of revenue. They HAVE to.

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 07:37 PM

So now its AgentPat backing up lexlives. Both People who are well known to not be looking forward to this Movie. You must make lexlives proud Pat.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 07:41 PM

So now its AgentPat backing up lexlives. Both People who are well known to not be looking forward to this Movie. You must make lexlives proud Pat.

no,Pat is cool,she is smart when it comes to box office

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 07:43 PM

no,Pat is cool,she is smart when it comes to box office

Still like lexlives they are picking those Numbers based on the fact they hope / want Superman Returns does horribly.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 07:44 PM

Still like lexlives they are picking those Numbers based on the fact they hope / want Superman Returns does horribly.
Lexlives maybe but not Pat,she has never been like that

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 07:46 PM

Lexlives maybe but not Pat,she has never been like that

She only wants Superman to fail because she (thinks) that if this Movie fails WB will go right ahead & make a Movie with Tom Well Starring. Like lexlives Pat has her ideal Superman & she has always been widely known to be mad at the fact Tom Welling never got the role. Shes a Wellingnite

sameone

03-11-2006, 07:52 PM

She only wants Superman to fail because she (thinks) that if this Movie fails WB will go right ahead & make a Movie with Tom Well Starring. Like lexlives Pat has her ideal Superman & she has always been widely known to be mad at the fact Tom Welling never got the role. Shes a Wellingnite

That does not make sense. if the movie fails there will not be a sequel so don't see how Welling factors into this.

As to Agent Pat - the one thing I don't get about David's 700 million figure is how BB reportedly tuned a nice profit that added to WB's bottom line when it cost 175 million and made 372 million and profits also had to be shared by Legendary.

The escalation figure to get from 250 to 700 million applied to BB 175 milllion would put the same profit point at 490 million. Which it did not make.

I've e-mailed him and asked if he could explain what looks like a disparity between the two films and their break/even/profit points.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 07:59 PM

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 08:01 PM

Interesting. You're probably pretty close there, though I think you might be a little high for X-Men, and a tad too low for SR. I know next to squat about the new X-Men film, but the first film grossed $157M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=xmen.htm) and the second one did $215M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=x2.htm) (domestically). Considering the latter grossed $215M in 2003 and BB only did $205M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=batmanbegins.htm), a few theories could be put forward.

The first one seems obvious: superhero films are declining in popularity (Spider-Man grossed $404M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman.htm) in 2003, while its sequel, S-M2, did $374M (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=spiderman2.htm) in 2004.) Box office attendance has also fallen over the last few years, due in no small part to the explosion of electronic entertainment options as well as a prevailing preference among film goers to wait for the film to hit home video. Back in the 70's, I used to go to the theater once a week. Every Friday night - it was like clockwork. If I go five or six times a year now, it's a LOT. Seriously. And I still enjoy movies - even "stupid" ones LOL.

Piracy Piracy Piracy..That's the sole reason SW3 didn't cross 400 Million last year. That's probably the biggest culprit. DVD sales are still strong across the board for these movies. (BB has grossed about 200 Million on DVD sales/rentals alone already)

Back to SR... Warners is currently the top studio right now in handling films overseas, so that might be why the writer of the other article thought SR would do better in the foreign market. Doesn't explain BB slump in that dept., but poop happens, I guess.

Batman has generally always done better at home than overseas....Happened with Batman 89, Batman Returns, Batman Forever, and Batman Begins. Seems llike Batman doesn't quite 'click' as much overseas in BO.

Last November, Dave Poland of The Hot Button (http://www.thehotbutton.com/) made some interesting points about Warners recent business approach to sharing production budget costs. He wrote (http://www.thehotbutton.com/today/hot.button/2005_thb/051107_mon.html):

"[Even though] Legendary Pictures was taking on "at least" half the cost of Superman Returns, this fact doesn't change the profitability potential of Superman Returns, but it does limit the studios profitability upside to such a degree that unless Superman grosses more than $700 million worldwide, it would have to be considered a loss leader, not endangering overall profitability for the year but unlikely to enhance it much either."

Well I read this when lexlives kept referring to it like it was scripture.....It removes very much from the equation that which is essential to 'bottom line'. (ie toys/dvds/rentals etc) Hence the reason why rumors keep bring brought up about 'Hulk 2'.

He could be right...but we don't know the complete details of the vested interest Legenday Productions has in SR. (As is the case with BB and it's sequels) I mean, if BB did 'only' 370 WW and 'only' did 50 past it's production budget or 150 Million domestically, then why would Legendary want to gain a minimal return on its investment? Doesn't make much sense, but I guess a Million is a million.

Worldwide...
X-Men (2000) grossed $296M
Spider-Man (2002) grossed $822M
X-Men 2 (2003) grossed $406M
Spider-Man 2 (2004) grossed $784M
Batman Begins (2005) grossed $372M
Fantastic Four (2005) grossed $330M

(I could look up more, but I'm lazy LOL)

Anyhoo, SR *could* do $700M worldwide, but it's gonna be re-heeeeeeeely difficult, IMHO. I don't know what it is about the Spider-Man franchise, but every other superhero franchise including Batman is lucky to break $400M worldwide. And SR production budget was what? $250M Something ridiculous like that? They're gonna be counting Every. Last. Dime. of revenue. They HAVE to.

Singer already corrected all the rumors. (Budget at 186)

That really changes the entire ballgame if it's the case....Then again we have Singer's word vs inflated figures that gone as high as 300 Million dollars for SR. :o

Yeah, where's that great New York Post Page 6 Gossip Article? Anyone?

GothicPowerMix1

03-11-2006, 08:01 PM

& even in the HIGHLY UNLIKELY Event that Superman fails even if it makes just as much as Batman Begins did. That is still good for WB. You are completely forgetting the fact that this Movie can also be geared more towards Children. Sure theres a little romance involved but what Movie does not have that. The reason why Fantastic Four did not do so well was because it was the first of its kind & not everyone was really famaliar with them. But now with the DVD Kids seem to love the Movie & Kids will be the ones that make the Sequel to Fantastic Four an even BIGGER Success because they would be more famaliar with them. With Superman Returns the kids know the S the kids know Superman. They know the Suit & what it looks like etc & sure while you may not exactly see Superman in the beginning of the Movie but I also think its nicely how Bryan did the first half. You got the Movie started off with Superman in Space in a Space Ship which I am sure kids will find cool & then theres 20 Minutes or so of Superman using his Powers on the farm & in when Clark thinks back to when he first discovered his Powers etc. There is plenty in the beginning to keep Kids entertained until we see Superman in Full Costume. Heck the first time we see Superman hes in a Semi Suit with the S. So kids will know right away whos Superman & they should get hooked from the get go. Kids will be a big reason this Movie WILL succeed

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 08:05 PM

sameone

03-11-2006, 08:06 PM

Piracy Piracy Piracy..That's the sole reason SW3 didn't cross 400 Million last year. That's probably the biggest culprit. DVD sales are still strong across the board for these movies. (BB has grossed about 200 Million on DVD sales/rentals alone already)

Batman has generally always done better at home than overseas....Happened with Batman 89, Batman Returns, Batman Forever, and Batman Begins. Seems llike Batman doesn't quite 'click' as much overseas in BO.

Well I read this when lexlives kept referring to it like it was scripture.....It removes very much from the equation that which is essential to 'bottom line'. (ie toys/dvds/rentals etc) Hence the reason why rumors keep bring brought up about 'Hulk 2'.

He could be right...but we don't know the complete details of the vested interest Legenday Productions has in SR. (As is the case with BB and it's sequels) I mean, if BB did 'only' 370 WW and 'only' did 50 past it's production budget or 150 Million domestically, then why would Legendary want to gain a minimal return on its investment? Doesn't make much sense, but I guess a Million is a million.

Singer already corrected all the rumors. (Budget at 186)

That really changes the entire ballgame if it's the case....Then again we have Singer's word vs inflated figures that gone as high as 300 Million dollars for SR. :o

Yeah, where's that great New York Post Page 6 Gossip Article? Anyone?

I do agree David's analysis, when you compare 700 mil as the breakeven point for SR then using the same factroing figure (Legendary get 50% of profits in both deals) at 370 million BB would not have turned a profit for WB. But it did.

So David must be adding other stuff to come up with that 700 mil figure for SR he is not using the same multiplier factor to calculate it.

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 08:10 PM

no,Pat is cool,she is smart when it comes to box officeThanks, HR. My personal interest in the film is irrelevant to its potential BO gross, or my predictions thereof. I'm merely looking at the big picture in terms of other films in similar genres, as well as quoting what other experts in the industry have said. SR will stand on its own laurels.

I don't think I've ever put a number on it, but right now I'm thinking around $250M (dom) assuming modest reviews. The general rule of thumb is 3 times opening weekend, but SR will be opening over the July 4th frame, so that makes extrapolation a little difficult. If we just look at the Friday - Sunday window, that would calculate out to about 83M, which is pretty close to what I *think* it will do (in three days.) If collective reviews are amazing (90% or higher "fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes), the film *could* break $300M. That would be quite a coup for Warners. If reviewers pan it (unlikely, but always possible), it will probably ceiling at considerably less, but I still think it will break $200M. It's Superman. To think it will do less than that is just being naive.

As to folks in my ignore bin, reality confirmation for their continued residence there is always a good thing, so thanks! :)

PS: Can we keep it on topic people. This forum is NOT for discussing other users, and as much as I love to think the world revolves around lil ole me :rolleyes: I don't post here for that purpose.

Weadazoid

03-11-2006, 08:17 PM

That is something that CANNOT be overlooked. After the success of the Potter franchise, I'm sure the WB is licking their chops for more. School will be out, Superman Returns will be the first major movie of the official summer season, and they'll be coming in droves.

Remember, there is no age limit here folks....SR is going to be targeted at ALL audiences. I believe the quote was:

'From 8 to 80.'

and that would be great if it ididn't have kid freindly Pirates right beihind it

Also a Comic book movie that is rated PG.... bothers me on some strange level....but hey I'm 30 so

Showtime

03-11-2006, 08:22 PM

I thought it was PG-13?

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 08:51 PM

Thanks, HR. My personal interest in the film is irrelevant to its potential BO gross, or my predictions thereof. I'm merely looking at the big picture in terms of other films in similar genres, as well as quoting what other experts in the industry have said. SR will stand on its own laurels.

I don't think I've ever put a number on it, but right now I'm thinking around $250M (dom) assuming modest reviews. The general rule of thumb is 3 times opening weekend, but SR will be opening over the July 4th frame, so that makes extrapolation a little difficult. If we just look at the Friday - Sunday window, that would calculate out to about 83M, which is pretty close to what I *think* it will do (in three days.) If collective reviews are amazing (90% or higher "fresh" on Rotten Tomatoes), the film *could* break $300M. That would be quite a coup for Warners. If reviewers pan it (unlikely, but always possible), it will probably ceiling at considerably less, but I still think it will break $200M. It's Superman. To think it will do less than that is just being naive.

As to folks in my ignore bin, reality confirmation for their continued residence there is always a good thing, so thanks! :)

PS: Can we keep it on topic people. This forum is NOT for discussing other users, and as much as I love to think the world revolves around lil ole me :rolleyes: I don't post here for that purpose.

:up:
I think anywhere between 250-300 is a fair estimate
As for the kids,im not sure that SR will connect with them

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:19 PM

i think it will...supermans always been a boys fav. and theres an abolsute ****load of toys coming out. i dont think we have to worry bout kids. its the 12+ crowd that might have a problem ith.

Mentok

03-11-2006, 09:19 PM

Its an ADVENTURE film, the kids will love it.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 09:22 PM

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 09:23 PM

...the one thing I don't get about David's 700 million figure is how BB reportedly tuned a nice profit that added to WB's bottom line when it cost 175 million and made 372 million and profits also had to be shared by Legendary...Dunno? [shrugs] But I'd be interested to hear what Poland has to say if he replies to your e-mail. I've been reading The Hot Button since 2002. He's very much on the ball when it comes to Hollywood and the biz in general.

Piracy Piracy Piracy..That's the sole reason SW3 didn't cross 400 Million last year. That's probably the biggest culprit. DVD sales are still strong across the board for these movies. (BB has grossed about 200 Million on DVD sales/rentals alone already)"SW?" Star Wars?

The general rule of thumb for home vid profits *used* to be 60% of the OVERALL gross. The percentage is a little higher now, but the point is, BB will make quite a profit for Warner Home Video. It'll probably gross another $150M on top of the $200M it's already achieved in the home video market. :up:

Batman has generally always done better at home than overseas....Happened with Batman 89, Batman Returns, Batman Forever, and Batman Begins. Seems like Batman doesn't quite 'click' as much overseas in BO.Yeah, I've read that. I haven't seen anybody offer a reasonable explanation for why that is though. Anybody? Buehler? Why would Spider-Man and X-Men (for example) be more popular than Batman? Is it DC vs. Marvel? Is it that Batman is just an "ordinary" human with neat toys, and people would rather see mutants or spider-bite based powers? This is probably a topic for a different thread, but it does play into predicting the box office profits of a film in the superhero genre. Some people have suggested that superheros associated more with Americanized themes do poorly in some foreign countries, though that probably applies to just about anything.

He could be right...but we don't know the complete details of the vested interest Legendary Productions has in SR.Variety printed an article a few months ago detailing LP's involvement with Warners and the big picture. It was quite extensive, and IIRC, involved put picture pacts for about 20 films over the next five years. Something like that. I can dig up the article if you'd like.

(As is the case with BB and it's sequels) I mean, if BB did 'only' 370 WW and 'only' did 50 past it's production budget or 150 Million domestically, then why would Legendary want to gain a minimal return on its investment? Doesn't make much sense, but I guess a Million is a million.Gotta remember, studios don't expect EVERY film to be profitable. They'd like every film to be LOL, but they know it's unlikely. It's the 80/20 rule. For every ten films produced by the majors, only two will be profitable for the studio, one will break even, and the other seven will be carried by the top 20%. It's generalized, but pretty close.

By definition, a tentpole film is a blockbuster. It supports all of the other little films around it and often launches a franchise. BB was a relaunch, if you will. So like SR, costs for sequels to these films are amortized over the length of their productions. For example, lets say the FOS set for SR cost $30M. If they make two sequels to the film and use the same set, they'll defray the cost over all three films. So in the end, the set will only use $10M of production budget on each film. Since BB and SR are tentpole films (franchise starters), Legendary would also be willing to incur a minor loss with the first film knowing that sequels will cost considerably less and have a better ROI. :)

Singer already corrected all the rumors. (Budget at 186)Hee. Okay. Just so you know, no Major will ever divulge the true cost of their film(s) to the public. There's *always* two "books" in every business, and sometimes more than two. ;)

and that would be great if it didn't have kid friendly Pirates right behind it

Also a Comic book movie that is rated PG.... bothers me on some strange level....but hey I'm 30 soI agree. The PG rating is REALLY out of left field, but cartoons like The Incredibles, Shrek and Ice Age did VERY well and were all rated PG, so we shall see if that translates well to SR, a live action film. The risk is that younger, teen audiences with expendable incomes won't take the film seriously and avoid it because it's for "kids." Spider-Man was rated PG-13 IIRC, and it was quite violent, yet that didn't seem to affect its overall BO profits.

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:32 PM

I can agree with your forecast (90/100 in opening weekend, 325 domesticly).

But I doubt it will get 90-100m opening weekend. It will be realesed on June 30th, and even Spidey 2 didn't make more than $85m.

So I think it will make about $83-86m, because it will be realesed on Friday.

cinaman, spidey 2 made 88 million on its first friday through sunday weekend cause it opened on a wednesday to 40 million. it would have taken in 120 million + had it opened on a friday instead. superman is on a friday though.

as for hunter, superman can easily get a multiplier of 3 even with pirates. why?

it has a lot of overlooked advantages in its second weekend.
1. word of mouth. supermans july4th inflated first week ensures tons of viewings and if the word of mouth is good, theyll tons of it.
2. theater count. superman will open in atleast 4000 theaters and probably add theaters its second weekend. if supermans in 4000, it would be immensly hard for pirates top its count, and hard just to break 3800 screens. much like how narnia was in more theaters then kong was.
3. running time. superman running time last reported was 150 minutes and with 3 months to go, itll probably be trimmed to under 140. pirates however, promises to long. the opriginal was 163 minutes. pirates length limits the amount of showings it can have per day. kong had the same effect. it was 3500 theaters but each theater could only show it 6 times a day cause of its immense length. while narnia was in 3700 theaters with 8 showings a day. limted showings in limited theater=much more sellouts=much more crowd overflow, and supermans the likely second choice. much like how when attack of the clones opened in 3000 theaters while spidey was still in 3500, spiderman made 45 million due to the huge overflow from crowd sellouts.

i mean, pirates will still probably break 115 million opening, but those expecting a 60% drop or more for superman will be dissapointed. the most it will drop is 55%, but i see around 50% exactly after a 90 million opening.

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:34 PM

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

depends. spiderman scores extremely well with the 8-12 crowd cause they find him cool while still appealing to the 4-8 crowd. superman is the 4-8 crowd who are amazed by his powers, while still having appeal to the 8-12, who wont find him as cool as spiderman.

again anybody who is preditrcing spiderman numbers-domestic, overseas,or worldwide-is out of their minds.

but 300 millions very doabloe, assuming the film and or marketing dont suck.

if this pulls a batman begins and must rely on legs, itll top out around 245-250 million. but this will defiently get atleast 500 ww.

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 09:41 PM

I think they may find him kinda corny next to Spidey and Jack Sparrow

Kids LOVE Superman.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 09:43 PM

depends. spiderman scores extremely well with the 8-12 crowd cause they find him cool while still appealing to the 4-8 crowd. superman is the 4-8 crowd who are amazed by his powers, while still having appeal to the 8-12, who wont find him as cool as spiderman.

again anybody who is preditrcing spiderman numbers-domestic, overseas,or worldwide-is out of their minds.

but 300 millions very doabloe, assuming the film and or marketing dont suck.

if this pulls a batman begins and must rely on legs, itll top out around 245-250 million. but this will defiently get atleast 500 ww.

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:44 PM

yeah i mean...i dont think i have seen a halloween where i havent seen like 10 supermans.

i dont think ive been to a toy store without tons of superman stuff.

superman and kids is like bread n butter.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 09:44 PM

Kids LOVE Superman.

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:45 PM

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

probably. pirates 2's strength is its teen audience while supermans is its kids. the dif. is kids bring parents and repeat viewings.

plus superman doesnt have a retarded twist like pirates 2 ;)

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 09:46 PM

the teen end may be where SR feels the burn though,they are into guys like Bauer now

I see 75-80M Friday to Sunday and a total of around 250-275 Domestic,WW is harder to predict but i think it will have less impact in Europe than the US

If SR performs like S:TM did (the film it most resembles according to everyone) Then you could very well see something along the lines of:

335 Domestic and about 400 internationally. (Which is very close to S:TM numbers when you 'inflate'. It's actually more, but I don't see this kind of performance to be impossible)

I still don't get the BO for Finding Nemo and Shrek 2 and The Incredibles....I'll never understand that. Damn kids..;)

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:47 PM

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

i think h means the 8 and under crowd. teenagers wont find him as cool, though i think the action/fx featured in the tv spots will be impressive enough to get em in there. outside of this site im no comic nut, but even me and some of my buddys are planning on seeing this at midnight.

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 09:51 PM

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 09:52 PM

probably. pirates 2's strength is its teen audience while supermans is its kids. the dif. is kids bring parents and repeat viewings.

plus superman doesnt have a retarded twist like pirates 2 ;)

Not sure what you mean but the kid alone could prove highly retardedhttp://www.superherohype.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

explode7

03-11-2006, 09:54 PM

Wait a minute this is a BO thread right. Then where's cinemaman?

Excel

03-11-2006, 09:58 PM

the dif. is batman had fordseeable problems nobody saw and some that we couldnt see.

1.nobody thought it marketing in june would be that bad. w.b. went with a long, 10 month marketing push that had more stuff for batman in december-march then in may-june when it counted. if supermans is that bad it wont get more then 250 million.
-superman wont have this, as w.b.s opted for the one huge 2 month push. may-june will be full of superman unlike it was for batman.

2. batman had a huge effect with batmab & robin. it was still fresh in peoples minds and kept em away.
-superman hasnt had a film in 20 years.

3. batman begins didnt appeal to kids.
-superman does.

4. supermans drama was a (too most) uninteresting, unappealing story of a man trying to conquer inner demons. men got bored in the first hour, and women werent interested to begin with.
-supermans drama is a love story. this will BRING IN women and its immense budget promises huge action thatll bring in men. so esstentially, supermans a "date"movie while batman certainly wasnt.

5. release date-batman opened after surprise smash mr. and mrs. smith which appealed to all of batmans core demographics. plus it opened oin the dead middle of june where everybody was tired after seeing mays big guns.
-supermans ther first big film of next summer once kids get off and opens on the best release date of the year, july 4th holiday, and is the first big film in over a month, which gives it an audience and marketing advantage.

Pickle-El

03-11-2006, 09:59 PM

By kids you mean 5-8 ? because to me they are all kids right up to 18 and any past 10 i think will find him corny and even younger ones may feel he lacks the coolness of Spidey

This is something people around here always so. Why is that? What's so cool about some kid who mopes around all day and runs at the site of a girl? (And can't pay his rent for that matter)

Oh well....I just don't get why people like to use the 'he isn't cool' card. What has changed since I was 7 all those years ago? In the end, they're all good guys, right?

Isn't that the general basis for these movies? Good guy/bad guy/damsel in distress/danger/etc...

He may not be cooler to some of 'us'...but kids will always love Superman. It's practically folklore at this point. It's not just women watching Smallville (6Million people) ya know? ;)

This a whole new generation of kids that will get to see Supes on the big screen. That shouldn't be overlooked. Between that and the nostalgia from older fans, people will be going crazy when they start seeing commercials with the John Williams Superman Theme blasting and Superman doing the things ONLY Superman can do.....TRUST ME on this. Just because it isn't quite time yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. There's going to be millions of kids that will be humming the Superman theme after they hear it for the first time after they leave the theater. If SR has HALF the heart of S:TM, you will have seen kids realize another larger than life hero that they will remember for the rest of their lives.

Remember, this is WHY they brought in Bryan Singer.....look at what he did with potentially circus-like looking on screen characters like the X-Men. He could have goofed up big and been a HUGE campfest. As we have it, X3 is coming in theatres in about 2 months.

In the end, it comes down to whether or not you think Bryan Singer knows how to MAKE Superman relatable to kids as well as adults.

Excel

03-11-2006, 10:00 PM

Not sure what you mean but the kid alone could prove highly retardedhttp://www.superherohype.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

lol.

i mean pirates big audience is teenagers. it will sell about 180 million bucks in teenage audience alone. it will still sell about 100 million or so to kids and their parents, but teens it heprime audience.

superman big audience is kids. it will sell about 175-200 million in ticket sales to kids and parents. it will still sell about 100 million to teenagers.

do you see what i mean?

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 10:06 PM

This is something people around here always so. Why is that? What's so cool about some kid who mopes around all day and runs at the site of a girl? (And can't pay his rent for that matter)

Oh well....I just don't get why people like to use the 'he isn't cool' card. What has changed since I was 7 all those years ago? In the end, they're all good guys, right?

Isn't that the general basis for these movies? Good guy/bad guy/damsel in distress/danger/etc...

He may not be cooler to some of 'us'...but kids will always love Superman. It's practically folklore at this point. It's not just women watching Smallville (6Million people) ya know? ;)

This a whole new generation of kids that will get to see Supes on the big screen. That shouldn't be overlooked. Between that and the nostalgia from older fans, people will be going crazy when they start seeing commercials with the John Williams Superman Theme blasting and Superman doing the things ONLY Superman can do.....TRUST ME on this. Just because it isn't quite time yet, doesn't mean it won't happen. There's going to be millions of kids that will be humming the Superman theme after they hear it for the first time after they leave the theater. If SR has HALF the heart of S:TM, you will have seen kids realize another larger than life hero that they will remember for the rest of their lives.

Remember, this is WHY they brought in Bryan Singer.....look at what he did with potentially circus-like looking on screen characters like the X-Men. He could have goofed up big and been a HUGE campfest. As we have it, X3 is coming in theatres in about 2 months.

In the end, it comes down to whether or not you think Bryan Singer knows how to MAKE Superman relatable to kids as well as adults.

Well i think SV appeals alot to the same crowd that have made the OC such a big hit and Dawsons Creek before it,it's the teen romances and relationships that are it's source of popularity IMO
As for Spidey being cool,i think when he is in the suit he is seen as cool and out of it very relatable to the everyday kid
Why does cool matter ? i dunno but kids hate corny these days and good guys with and edge seem all the rage with the big teen market
Im not saying SR won't appeal but these 600 and 700 million estimates are crazy IMO

Excel

03-11-2006, 10:09 PM

its far more crazy to say supermans ww gross will be 400 million then it is to say it will be 600.

and hunter, what is gods among men?

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 10:10 PM

lol.

i mean pirates big audience is teenagers. it will sell about 180 million bucks in teenage audience alone. it will still sell about 100 million or so to kids and their parents, but teens it heprime audience.

superman big audience is kids. it will sell about 175-200 million in ticket sales to kids and parents. it will still sell about 100 million to teenagers.

do you see what i mean?

I was referring to plus

superman doesnt have a retarded twist like pirates 2

Hunter Rider

03-11-2006, 10:12 PM

its far more crazy to say supermans ww gross will be 400 million then it is to say it will be 600.

and hunter, what is gods among men?

that's why i say 450-500http://www.superherohype.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

God Amongst Men is just a fun group for SR posters to unify and keep the boards civil,you can be in just put it in your SIG:up: ,i think Pickle is gonna be in

Excel

03-11-2006, 10:12 PM

ooo, thats just something i read about pirates 2s ending.

Excel

03-11-2006, 10:21 PM

im looking at the schedule n ww will be tough to call for a while.

for example, japan is its biggest over seas market. episode 3 made 100 million there, and mopst cgi fest are huge in japan.

superman opens in japan august 19th. so we wont know superman ww total until october.unlike batman wherewe knew it in august.

explode7

03-11-2006, 10:40 PM

It should've have a WW release date. DAMN WB!

Showtime

03-11-2006, 10:45 PM

Glad you have you aboard Excel. Pickle was invited about a week ago, never put it in his sig.

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 10:50 PM

If SR performs like S:TM did (the film it most resembles according to everyone) Then you could very well see something along the lines of:

335 Domestic and about 400 internationally. (Which is very close to S:TM numbers when you 'inflate'. It's actually more, but I don't see this kind of performance to be impossible)The most recent inflation adjusted list (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm) I've seen puts S:TM at $367,092,000, which is based on an average ticket price of $6.40 for 2006. But S:TM unspooled in 1978. Those were the days of platform releases, where a film would take upwards of a year to make its way around the country. At its widest release, S:TM was only in 817 theaters nationwide, and had a limited opening for a then remarkable 508 theaters. Today's blockbuster films get saturation releases and are expected to meet or exceed their production budgets in the first two weeks of release, if not sooner LOL.

It's hard to make comparisons with older films, particularly ones as old as S:TM. Most people had no idea what a video cassette recorder was in 1978, much less own one (Sony's Betamax hit the streets in 1976 followed shortly by RCA's VHS in 1977.) The big three broadcast networks had a 91% share of prime time audiences during the 1978/9 season, and "cable" was something you used when the antenna on the roof didn't work. Computers and the Internet were not in the common lexicon outside of science fiction stories, and "Space Invaders" was the latest popular video game at the time. People were still playing "Pong" in 1978. LOL

So what did people do for entertainment back then? Well a LOT of folks went to the movies. It's different now. Very, very different.

Showtime

03-11-2006, 10:53 PM

Very well thought out post. Entertaining and stacked with information. Do you write for the planet?

AgentPat

03-11-2006, 11:07 PM

Very well thought out post. Entertaining and stacked with information. Do you write for the planet?Who me? Hee! :O

The closest I've come to anything "official" at the Planet was my offer to write technical (production related) reviews on SV episodes for The Kingdom section. But they're undergoing a few changes and upgrades right now, so if it ever happens, it probably won't be till next season (September). Thanks for the compliment though. :up: :D

BTW, Showtime029... I'm in Woburn. Nice to meet a fellow BeanTowner. ;)

Excel

03-11-2006, 11:23 PM

The most recent inflation adjusted list (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adjusted.htm) I've seen puts S:TM at $367,092,000, which is based on an average ticket price of $6.40 for 2006. But S:TM unspooled in 1978. Those were the days of platform releases, where a film would take upwards of a year to make its way around the country. At its widest release, S:TM was only in 817 theaters nationwide, and had a limited opening for a then remarkable 508 theaters. Today's blockbuster films get saturation releases and are expected to meet or exceed their production budgets in the first two weeks of release, if not sooner LOL.

It's hard to make comparisons with older films, particularly ones as old as S:TM. Most people had no idea what a video cassette recorder was in 1978, much less own one (Sony's Betamax hit the streets in 1976 followed shortly by RCA's VHS in 1977.) The big three broadcast networks had a 91% share of prime time audiences during the 1978/9 season, and "cable" was something you used when the antenna on the roof didn't work. Computers and the Internet were not in the common lexicon outside of science fiction stories, and "Space Invaders" was the latest popular video game at the time. People were still playing "Pong" in 1978. LOL

So what did people do for entertainment back then? Well a LOT of folks went to the movies. It's different now. Very, very different.

yeah...stm opened to 7 million and finished 130 million in the us n 300 million ww, good for 5th biggest of all time back then.

for example if stm opened today i doubt itd cross 250 million, itd be too boring. but the sequel-suprman 2-would though.

but yeah anything pre 1989 is hard to compare to todays box office state.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 12:59 PM

These boards are hardly the epicenter of good BO predicitng as last years BB threads showed

I have had SR at number 2 on every review ive done for BO in 2006,you just want to brand me a "hater" becuase i won't say it will make $300M

But how can it be number 2 without $290-300m?

I think Cars will make $277m, X3 will make $207m and Da Vinci Code will get $233m.

So as I understood, Cars can beat SR.

It would not be good for Superman.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:03 PM

The movie will soar in the first 5 days to over 125 million.. will it have staying power.. well that maybe different.

I hope you are right, it will be.

And is SR makes in first 5 days about $125m, it will make about $83m in first weekend.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 01:05 PM

^^

I hope so to.. its a reachable target.

:up:

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:08 PM

Well no not really, Being a big movie fan..most will see both..as both has sparked interest.. both can be watched by a younger audiance..which Batman Begins lost alot of revenue to.Being at the top doesn't mean a thing..have you seen some of the crap that goes to the top spot?

Hmm...

I think POTC2 will make more than SR, because it has kids and their parents.

But SR also has an advantages, because big numbers of teenagers, maybe kids and fans will go to see it.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 01:09 PM

Hmm...

I think POTC2 will make more than SR, because it has kids and their parents.

But SR also has an advantages, because big numbers of teenagers, maybe kids and fans will go to see it.

no way dude...

look at the amount of toys being released..certainly not for teenagers..the target audiance WB will want are parents and kids.

but all ages really.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:09 PM

To clarify I said 185 to 210 domestically and I predict about 185 foreign for a total WW of 370 - 395. It will do slightly better than BB WW I think.

BB did 205 domestically and 167 or so foreign for a total of around 372 million.

You are right that if it just does 210 domestically there would be a sequel.

A BB sequel has been green lighted but you have to figure BB cost just 150 million to make so it turned a nice profit. Not great like Spiderman of course.

Look man, most important part is that SR must make moe than $250m, not more than BB.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:10 PM

But how can it be number 2 without $290-300m?

I think Cars will make $277m, X3 will make $207m and Da Vinci Code will get $233m.

So as I understood, Cars can beat SR.

It would not be good for Superman.
I'd forgotten about Cars,maybe it will be number 3 then or Cars won't make as much as you predicted

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:16 PM

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:18 PM

I'd forgotten about Cars,maybe it will be number 3 then or Cars won't make as much as you predicted

If Incredibles made more than $260m, I am sure Cars will make more than $270m.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:20 PM

no way dude...

look at the amount of toys being released..certainly not for teenagers..the target audiance WB will want are parents and kids.

but all ages really.

I think teenagers will have bigger interest in SR than kids.

Kids love pirates.

But if SR have PG raiting, it will make more than $250m 99%.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 01:22 PM

I think teenagers will have bigger interest in SR than kids.

Kids love pirates.

But if SR have PG raiting, it will make more than $250m 99%.

I can't say i agree... I bet most male childern put a towl around there neck at some point and pretend to be the man of steel..

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:24 PM

that's why i say 450-500http://www.superherohype.com/forums/images/icons/icon12.gif

God Amongst Men is just a fun group for SR posters to unify and keep the boards civil,you can be in just put it in your SIG:up: ,i think Pickle is gonna be in

And you think that it will be realistic for Superman?

LOL.

Superman has another epic side.

It will make $680-710m.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:24 PM

If Incredibles made more than $260m, I am sure Cars will make more than $270m.

There's no logic to that statement,Incredibles was cool and funny and had superheroes in it,talking Cars may not have the same appeal

green

03-12-2006, 01:25 PM

There's no logic to that statement,Incredibles was cool and funny and had superheroes in it,talking Cars may not have the same appeal

Not to mention the overload of cg animated films we have been getting.:)

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:26 PM

And you think that it will be realistic for Superman?

LOL.

Superman has another epic side.

It will make $680-710m.

No it won't,your just living in this fanboy world where everyone loves superman and it is gonna make this enormous BO cos you want it to,you ignore all the factors and just plow on

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:27 PM

Not to mention the overload of cg animated films we have been getting.:)

Yep they are not the rare gems they once were

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:27 PM

I can't say i agree... I bet most male childern put a towl around there neck at some point and pretend to be the man of steel..

There can be another situation.

What if all family (parents, kids and teenagers) with fans will go to see SR, when it arrives, and then all will go to see POTC2.

But next week people will be divided in two sides.

One will go to see SR, another will go to see POTC2.

sameone

03-12-2006, 01:28 PM

No it won't,your just living in this fanboy world where everyone loves superman and it is gonna make this enormous BO cos you want it to,you ignore all the factors and just plow on

Whether it makes 225 mil or 300 mil the bottom line is this franchise is proving too costly. WB can't afford it IMO. They are going to shell out 200 million for films sparingly over the next few years. HP and Batman but beyond that I doubt we will see any 200 mil dollar WB films in the near future.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:29 PM

There's no logic to that statement,Incredibles was cool and funny and had superheroes in it,talking Cars may not have the same appeal

Are you sure?

And please stop saying that I have no logic.

People thought that Incredibles will not make more than $200m, but they were wrong.

The same with Cars.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:31 PM

No it won't,your just living in this fanboy world where everyone loves superman and it is gonna make this enormous BO cos you want it to,you ignore all the factors and just plow on

No, if I want it, it will not be.

People can't hear only me.

But they also can't hear only you.

For Spidey, mor than $800m was not realistic.

For POTC, more than $650m wasn't realistic.

The same here.

People don't expect from SR big numbers, but they will be amazed.

For Narnia, more than $280m wasn't realistic.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:34 PM

Are you sure?

And please stop saying that I have no logic.

People thought that Incredibles will not make more than $200m, but they were wrong.

The same with Cars.
But Cinemaman you don't use Logic,you don't examine individual cases you link every BO guess to previous movies and that isn't how things work
The Incredibles had a ton of things going for it from the superhero characters to the funny adult relationship and family jokes,Talking Cars may very well not interest ppl,just because they are made by the same ppl doesn't make their BO relatable

VGPOP

03-12-2006, 01:35 PM

AGREED. I HATE when people says it will make BB numbers!

It won't.

It all depends in the story of the movie, quality, WOM. that's it. If it's a good movie (and that's what Bryan Singer is doing), then people will go see this movie no matter the competition.

Fans will see movie no matter how it turns out.

It's the quality, story, and WOM that will decide the success of this movie (and ANY movie...)

It all depends on that trailer as well. SR will have 4th of July weekend by itself. And it opens on a FRIDAY. People are forgetting this. It opens on a FRIDAY.

I don't like to "guess" box office numbers without any "data" (like a theatrical trailer, number of theaters, lenght of the movie, marketting, etc).

But I can say this, opening on a Friday (holiday weekend) almost two decades of waiting, no competition at all, a movie about the world's greatest hero of all time, sky's the limit. That's all I can say.

Don't compare this superhero to others because if he is n#1 of all time (and I'm not saying he is n#1 NOW, but all time), then why the comparison? Huge fanbase. From kids to old people, then I have to assume movie will do well at least that Friday, which I am certain will have midnight screenings.

We'll see what happens.....

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:35 PM

No, if I want it, it will not be.

People can't hear only me.

But they also can't hear only you.

For Spidey, mor than $800m was not realistic.

For POTC, more than $650m wasn't realistic.

The same here.

People don't expect from SR big numbers, but they will be amazed.

For Narnia, more than $280m wasn't realistic.

*Sigh* you just don't listen

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:42 PM

*Sigh* you just don't listen

Nope, you just don't listen me.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:44 PM

But Cinemaman you don't use Logic,you don't examine individual cases you link every BO guess to previous movies and that isn't how things work
The Incredibles had a ton of things going for it from the superhero characters to the funny adult relationship and family jokes,Talking Cars may very well not interest ppl,just because they are made by the same ppl doesn't make their BO relatable

Do you know the whole Cars plot?

Besides, boys love cars and I ma sure the will have big interest about it.

Excel

03-12-2006, 01:46 PM

It won't.

It all depends in the story of the movie, quality, WOM. that's it. If it's a good movie (and that's what Bryan Singer is doing), then people will go see this movie no matter the competition.

Fans will see movie no matter how it turns out.

It's the quality, story, and WOM that will decide the success of this movie (and ANY movie...)

It all depends on that trailer as well. SR will have 4th of July weekend by itself. And it opens on a FRIDAY. People are forgetting this. It opens on a FRIDAY.

I don't like to "guess" box office numbers without any "data" (like a theatrical trailer, number of theaters, lenght of the movie, marketting, etc).

But I can say this, opening on a Friday (holiday weekend) almost two decades of waiting, no competition at all, a movie about the world's greatest hero of all time, sky's the limit. That's all I can say.

Don't compare this superhero to others because if he is n#1 of all time (and I'm not saying he is n#1 NOW, but all time) Huge fanbase. From kids to old people, then I have to assume movie will do well at least that Friday, which I am certain will have midnight screenings.

We'll see what happens.....

good post.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:47 PM

It won't.

It all depends in the story of the movie, quality, WOM. that's it. If it's a good movie (and that's what Bryan Singer is doing), then people will go see this movie no matter the competition.

Fans will see movie no matter how it turns out.

It's the quality, story, and WOM that will decide the success of this movie (and ANY movie...)

It all depends on that trailer as well. SR will have 4th of July weekend by itself. And it opens on a FRIDAY. People are forgetting this. It opens on a FRIDAY.

I don't like to "guess" box office numbers without any "data" (like a theatrical trailer, number of theaters, lenght of the movie, marketting, etc).

But I can say this, opening on a Friday (holiday weekend) almost two decades of waiting, no competition at all, a movie about the world's greatest hero of all time, sky's the limit. That's all I can say.

Don't compare this superhero to others because if he is n#1 of all time (and I'm not saying he is n#1 NOW, but all time), then why the comparison? Huge fanbase. From kids to old people, then I have to assume movie will do well at least that Friday, which I am certain will have midnight screenings.

We'll see what happens.....

Ok, agreed :up:

sameone

03-12-2006, 01:49 PM

It won't.

It all depends in the story of the movie, quality, WOM. that's it. If it's a good movie (and that's what Bryan Singer is doing), then people will go see this movie no matter the competition.

Fans will see movie no matter how it turns out.

It's the quality, story, and WOM that will decide the success of this movie (and ANY movie...)

It all depends on that trailer as well. SR will have 4th of July weekend by itself. And it opens on a FRIDAY. People are forgetting this. It opens on a FRIDAY.

I don't like to "guess" box office numbers without any "data" (like a theatrical trailer, number of theaters, lenght of the movie, marketting, etc).

But I can say this, opening on a Friday (holiday weekend) almost two decades of waiting, no competition at all, a movie about the world's greatest hero of all time, sky's the limit. That's all I can say.

Don't compare this superhero to others because if he is n#1 of all time (and I'm not saying he is n#1 NOW, but all time), then why the comparison? Huge fanbase. From kids to old people, then I have to assume movie will do well at least that Friday, which I am certain will have midnight screenings.

We'll see what happens.....

I'm one who has said BB numbers for SR. Been saying that for a long time now.

BB slightly better domestic box than SR, SR better foreign box than BB. WW SR will beat BB by 10 or 20 million - coming in at just under 400 mil IMO.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 01:51 PM

Nope, you just don't listen me.

I have listened to you,for months now Ive listened patiently while others have gotten pissed at your refusal to see anything beyond "SR will make 300 Domestic and 650M+ WW"
You don't make your guesses based on what is here you look at other films not connected with this one and then decide SR will make the same amount

Do you know the whole Cars plot?

Besides, boys love cars and I ma sure the will have big interest about it.

It has a far narrower audience appeal than The Incredibles

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:53 PM

I'm one who has said BB numbers for SR. Been saying that for a long time now.

BB slightly better domestic box than SR, SR better foreign box than BB. WW SR will beat BB by 10 or 20 million - coming in at just under 400 mil IMO.

Oh man, you just don't want understan 3 things.

1. BB was rated PG-13, but SR will have PG.

2. People have expected Superman to come back since 1986.

3. Kids love Superman.

dark_b

03-12-2006, 01:53 PM

Do you know the whole Cars plot?

Besides, boys love cars and I ma sure the will have big interest about it.boys ,mans love cars. but the cars in the Cars movie are not cool.

i will only see this movie because i know there will be some good joker.

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 01:55 PM

I have listened to you,for months now Ive listened patiently while others have gotten pissed at your refusal to see anything beyond "SR will make 300 Domestic and 650M+ WW"
You don't make your guesses based on what is here you look at other films not connected with this one and then decide SR will make the same amount

But why I was right, when I was saying that WOTW will make only about $230m and GOF will make more than $280m?

And also when I was saying that Narnia will be able to make more than $270m?

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 02:00 PM

But why I was right, when I was saying that WOTW will make only about $230m and GOF will make more than $280m?

And also when I was saying that Narnia will be able to make more than $270m?

I never saw you predicing HP and WOTW was out before you even signed here
plus it was easy to guess Potter as it is part of a big successful franchise so $250+ was a given

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 02:02 PM

I never saw you predicing HP and WOTW was out before you even signed here
plus it was easy to guess Potter as it is part of a big successful franchise so $250+ was a given

Like it is easy to guess that SR will make $300m too.

Why you don't want to imagine if POTC2 make ess than 1st movie and becomes next Back to the Future sequel.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 02:06 PM

Like it is easy to guess that SR will make $300m too.

Why you don't want to imagine if POTC2 make ess than 1st movie and becomes next Back to the Future sequel.

It's not easy to guess that at all,last year i was right about BB and most others were wrong so by your theory my predictions should be correct

POTC2 is hot,it's got one of the biggest movie stars in the world in it,returning to a role of one of the most popular recent cinematic heroes and it is all part of a franchise that is fresh in ppl's minds,it's not hard to guess it will be successful but SR has a lot of things that are unclear about how it will connect with the modern audience

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 02:09 PM

It's not easy to guess that at all,last year i was right about BB and most others were wrong so by your theory my predictions should be correct

POTC2 is hot,it's got one of the biggest movie stars in the world in it,returning to a role of one of the most popular recent cinematic heroes and it is all part of a franchise that is fresh in ppl's minds,it's not hard to guess it will be successful but SR has a lot of things that are unclear about how it will connect with the modern audience

SR will connect with the modern audince like was Spidey.

You see, as we know teenager and kids love their favorite heroes and also vissual effects with not bad love storyline, so there is no doubts.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 02:11 PM

SR will connect with the modern audince like was Spidey.

You see, as we know teenager and kids love their favorite heroes and also vissual effects with not bad love storyline, so there is no doubts.

Of course there are doubts,is Superman to corny,will it be to slow,how will ppl react to Routh and also the fact it is followed by POTC2 a week after will hurt it

Il_Siciliano

03-12-2006, 02:14 PM

I think Cinemaman is without contest the funniest poster here. Half the time I feel completely befuddled by the obscurity of his prophetic utterances.

dark_b

03-12-2006, 02:14 PM

Cinemaman

03-12-2006, 02:14 PM

Of course there are doubts,is Superman to corny,will it be to slow,how will ppl react to Routh and also the fact it is followed by POTC2 a week after will hurt it

Oh god! After full trailer people will understand that it is great movies. That wasn't so with teaser, because it didn't show us a lot of shots.

And I don't think it will be hurted by POTC2.

When POTC2 arrives, it will alredy make huge opening.

dark_b

03-12-2006, 02:23 PM

Oh god! After full trailer people will understand that it is great movies. That wasn't so with teaser, because it didn't show us a lot of shots.

And I don't think it will be hurted by POTC2.

When POTC2 arrives, it will alredy make huge opening.if the trailer arrives. IF my dear cinemaman. i really dont know what is WB doing .and we can not be sure if in may we wil really get the trailer.

if we get the trailer :(

sameone

03-12-2006, 02:24 PM

well spidey was having a supervillain. superman does not. i wouldnt be suprised if people would not like superman since it is like S:TM. he is saving people from disasters which lex made.

copy.............:(

it is a copy and for 225 or 250 mil you would think they'd have been able to do something original.

When Singer came on board Horn agreed to throw all that came before out which was a huge mistake.

The Abrahms script would have been a good starting point with significant corrections of course.

Or the Kevin Smith script.

Better Singer had copied hose.

But really Singer should have come up with something original.

I don't know if they will ever do another Superman film again but if they do my money is that will be a reboot and have nothing to do with Singer's SR.

Showtime

03-12-2006, 02:58 PM

The Abrams script is horrible, only good part of the script is the villians he created. The Kevin Smith script is a great read, and the dialogue between Superman and Lois. A must read.

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 02:58 PM

and it had a giant Spider.

Venom71

03-12-2006, 03:15 PM

it is a copy and for 225 or 250 mil you would think they'd have been able to do something original.

When Singer came on board Horn agreed to throw all that came before out which was a huge mistake.

The Abrahms script would have been a good starting point with significant corrections of course.

Or the Kevin Smith script.

Better Singer had copied hose.

But really Singer should have come up with something original.

I don't know if they will ever do another Superman film again but if they do my money is that will be a reboot and have nothing to do with Singer's SR.
Wow you have been to the future and know SR is going to bomb...can I take a ride in your flying deloreon? :rolleyes:

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 03:17 PM

http://img154.imageshack.us/img154/1495/deloreancar5nf.gif

Showtime

03-12-2006, 03:18 PM

1.21 Gigawatts!

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 03:19 PM

How could have i been so careless 1.21 Gigawatts ...it can't be done tom..it can't.

Venom71

03-12-2006, 03:24 PM

What a team we are Thanks Guys!:up:

ROBOCOP CPU001

03-12-2006, 03:25 PM

Gods among men my friend.

Pickle-El

03-12-2006, 03:32 PM

sameone

03-12-2006, 03:59 PM

if the trailer arrives. IF my dear cinemaman. i really dont know what is WB doing .and we can not be sure if in may we wil really get the trailer.

if we get the trailer :(

You really have to start to wonder about the trailer and it being pushed out later than is ever done for a major film. There is no way they can't do a trailer - well in the "real" world but it is hard to figure out what is up with this film.

Venom71

03-12-2006, 04:04 PM

You really have to start to wonder about the trailer and it being pushed out later than is ever done for a major film. There is no way they can't do a trailer - well in the "real" world but it is hard to figure out what is up with this film.
No not Really the teaser poster and teaser trailer....Routh's appearance at the GGs, magazine articles....talk show appearances when the movie gets closer...the trailer in april or may...plenty of marketing happening for SR plus the name Superman will put butts in the seats....you need to get a clue.

sameone

03-12-2006, 04:09 PM

No not Really the teaser poster and teaser trailer....Routh's appearance at the GGs, magazine articles....talk show appearances when the movie gets closer...the trailer in april or may...plenty of marketing happening for SR plus the name Superman will put butts in the seats....you need to get a clue.

WEell, by all rights they can't not do or release a trailer so it will eventually come. But I predicted months ago they would delay it as long as possible because of Routh's presence or lack thereof as Superman.

There will be a trailer in may - they can't delay it longer.

Will they pre-screen the film to critics? That will be interesting to watch for. I could see them not doing that.

Venom71

03-12-2006, 04:14 PM

WEell, by all rights they can't not do or release a trailer so it will eventually come. But I predicted months ago they would delay it as long as possible because of Routh's presence or lack thereof as Superman.

There will be a trailer in may - they can't delay it longer.

Will they pre-screen the film to critics? That will be interesting to watch for. I could see them not doing that.
Yeah...probably not. May is plenty of time to get the word out in theaters and plus all the tv spots in June once the movie starts....plenty of marketing....you don't like anything you see so really why keep posting here? You are a joke.

sameone

03-12-2006, 04:27 PM

Yeah...probably not. May is plenty of time to get the word out in theaters and plus all the tv spots in June once the movie starts....plenty of marketing....you don't like anything you see so really why keep posting here? You are a joke.

I post cause I love this character and choose not to keep quiet when I feel the franchise, the greatest mythical character ever, is not getting the world class treatment it deserves.

Venom71

03-12-2006, 04:31 PM

I post cause I love this character and choose not to keep quiet when I feel the franchise, the greatest mythical character ever, is not getting the world class treatment it deserves.
He is getting the world class treatment he deserves...just because you don't like what you have seen doesn't mean Singer and company doesn't respect Superman.:supes:

Excel

03-12-2006, 05:04 PM

the abrams scrpit DOES NOT suck...id argue its probably more entertaining then whatever singers giving us.

sameone

03-12-2006, 05:13 PM

the abrams scrpit DOES NOT suck...id argue its probably more entertaining then whatever singers giving us.

ITA.

It did have its problems which a sold rewrite could have fixed.

Superman dying and being brought back to life by Jor-El I guess should have gone from the script.

Krypton still around would have been a huge change - but so is Superman having a son.

The Krypon thing needed to be re-written or treated as a flashback to a previous time - not current. It might have been cool in that light.

The script had this great epic feel to it.

Loved the cliffhanger ending - Superman leaving to return to Krypton but Krypton IMO should have been gone by then so I would have had Superman discover it was no more in the sequle that resoled that ending.

Like I said it needed major rewrites but had a great epic comic book core that Abrahams took too far.

Hunter Rider

03-12-2006, 07:20 PM

Oh god! After full trailer people will understand that it is great movies. That wasn't so with teaser, because it didn't show us a lot of shots.

And I don't think it will be hurted by POTC2.

When POTC2 arrives, it will alredy make huge opening.

So basically you know the trailer is gonna be awesome and everyone will love it b/c you will regardless ?
POTC2 will eat heavily into it's second week and cut it's legs off was what i meant

Showtime

03-12-2006, 11:51 PM

the abrams scrpit DOES NOT suck...id argue its probably more entertaining then whatever singers giving us.

The script was horribly written and the concepts were awful. The villians were incredible but that is about it.

Kevin Smith's script was a well written script that captured the relationship between Superman and Lois.

Excel

03-13-2006, 12:02 AM

have you read it?its a gold mine. theres so many scenes that i just imagine instant classics...im telling you its a great read.

The Punisher

03-13-2006, 12:04 AM

Yeah i read it, it was good.

Showtime

03-13-2006, 12:07 AM

have you read it?its a gold mine. theres so many scenes that i just imagine instant classics...im telling you its a great read.

I did read it, I read the final cut. I just don't have the same opinion. I thought the Smith script was a better read and a better storyline.

Metropolis_Man

03-13-2006, 01:08 AM

I liked the Alex Ford script a lot. I don't know if anyone's read it. I haven't had a chance to read the Kevin Smith script. I'll probably check it out soon though.

Excel

03-13-2006, 06:54 AM

I did read it, I read the final cut. I just don't have the same opinion. I thought the Smith script was a better read and a better storyline.

oh, i only read his first draft.

smith is fantastic, i hav no idea why it was never made.

Cinemaman

03-13-2006, 11:53 AM

So basically you know the trailer is gonna be awesome and everyone will love it b/c you will regardless ?
POTC2 will eat heavily into it's second week and cut it's legs off was what i meant

POTC2 full trailer is gonna to realese in April.

SR full trailer is gonna to reallese in May.

There is BIG difference.

And I think that it will be awesome.

Hunter Rider

03-13-2006, 11:58 AM

POTC2 full trailer is gonna to realese in April.

SR full trailer is gonna to reallese in May.

There is BIG difference.

And I think that it will be awesome.

3 weeks between trailer is not a big difference:confused:

And yes YOU Think but you cant just say "everyone will love it want to see the movie"

Cinemaman

03-13-2006, 12:05 PM

3 weeks between trailer is not a big difference:confused:

And yes YOU Think but you cant just say "everyone will love it want to see the movie"

I think it will so in positive side.

Hunter Rider

03-13-2006, 12:09 PM

I think it will so in positive side.

Yes but you stated it as a fact that everyone would see the trailer and love it and that was why you knew it would make 300M and 650M WW

Showtime

03-13-2006, 12:10 PM

Cinnamon, I think your 300 Million theory is a little bit high. I think 280 Million - 290 Million is great domestic for Returns.

Metropolis_Man

03-13-2006, 07:26 PM

Cinnamon, I think your 300 Million theory is a little bit high. I think 280 Million - 290 Million is great domestic for Returns.

Could you imagine if it pulled some astronomical number, something like... I dont know, 100 billion dollars. Haha.

Showtime

03-13-2006, 07:40 PM

You know what, anything is possible, I wouldnt be suprise if Returns went crazy and grossed more that Spiderman 2.

Superman \S/

03-13-2006, 08:00 PM

^ That's be super amazing.

Metropolis_Man

03-13-2006, 08:01 PM

I don't care for things that are gross.

Excel

03-13-2006, 08:22 PM

i see a 90/280 on paper though my gut is saying 100/325.

breakout success though would be 125/440

Excel

06-02-2006, 07:02 PM

bumping. im updating this.

Cinemaman

06-03-2006, 05:34 AM

With first 8 days it will make about $150-170m, what is great for getting high numbers after POTC2 will arrive.

POTC2 will only a bit hurt SR, but SR will hurt it more.

So I think it will beat POTC2 with $335m domesticly. But POTC2 will beat it in overseas with $420-430m.

In worldwide they will make the same numbers.