Estimated Box Office Take

[bjgroves]

5. "X-Men: The Last Stand"
Releasing: May 26
Estimated Take: $220 million
Why: It's being billed as the "final" chapter of a series no one knew was a trilogy (did you?). It's the only major movie opening on Memorial Day weekend. It will face competition from "Poseidon," "Da Vinci" and "Hedge," but being the new kid on the holiday is huge. Plus, it faces no real threats in its genre until "Superman Returns" opens five weeks later.
What To Look For: Lots and lots of death. Unless, of course, the studio changes its mind at the last minute and wants the whole gang to come back for "X4."


http://movies.msn.com/movies/hitlist/3-24-06_2

[Karea07]

they actually think 'click' will make more money then x-men 3? :down and i never heard of "over the hedge" either...

i think da vinci should be in the top 5 also, but it's not. and mission impossible 3 or click raking in more money then that movie?

i dont think msn knows what its talking about :down :o

[JustABill]

Yeahhhhh, they are seriously pretty out of their mind.

[L0ngsh0t]

it will make at least 200 million, i think this movie has been hyped up enough, and enough x-fans have been anticipating this movie for so long, and the last to movies give it good street cred, so that regardless of how good this movie is (which i am hoping it will be phenominal) it should at least get to the 200 million mark, but i also think there is no celining on it, it could go as high as it can say 3 or so, i would hope it goes at least 300 and maybe there could be an x4

[WorthyStevens]

Over the Hedge? $325 million? No way in hell would that ever happen.

[diabolical]

Over the Hedge? $325 million? No way in hell would that ever happen.

C'mon,Bruce Willis as a Racoon. Surely it'll make something!!! :D

[bjgroves]

I think that the estimate for X3 of 220 million is a pretty good guess.

[Iceman]

I'd be disappointed with $220m. I don't think that would be enough for execs to give X4 the green light in the near future.

[bjgroves]

I would be dissappointed also, but just dont see X3 soaring to 300-400 million type box office totals unless we get the highest opening of all time. (Which is very possible)

[Iceman]

I would be dissappointed also, but just dont see X3 soaring to 300-400 million type box office totals unless we get the highest opening of all time. (Which is very possible)

If it's as good as expected I would hope for $250m - $300m. Also, the opening should be at least $100m for the four day weekend as both X1 and X2 opened very strongly despite not reaching huge box office totals.

[Downhere]

I'd be disappointed with $220m. I don't think that would be enough for execs to give X4 the green light in the near future.

Exactly, X3 needs to at least hit 250m domestically for a sequel to be greenlit and even then I think Fox will be cautious about doing that.

[rjb182]

I'm expecting something in the range of 200-250 million.

Where it will fall in that range is, as Han Solo once said, the real trick, innit?

[LEX]

220 million? No, it needs to make at least over 250 million. And yeah, MSN must've been on crack. Click making more money than X3? :o

[Downhere]

Click will probably make the same amount as last years The Longest Yard made.

[Neto Magnus]

the only way X3 could make $220 is if it has any replay value. It'sll have a huge opening weekend but then ppl will just forget about it, like they did with X1 and X2.

I hope the studio pushes the release date two days earlier like they did with Batman.

[Retroman]

I hope it makes 250 - 300 Million in the US. It should do similar numbers in other countries.

*crosses fingers*

[Sunstar]

I hope it at least makes $400-500 million worldwide then I'll die happy!:)

[MJB]

I'd love for X3 to take in over 300 million if for no other reason to then the upset them so called numbers they put out. I hate it when people think they can predict the future. Of course you can go by stats and other films similar to the genre, but in the end it's up in the air.

Click making more money then x3? Doubtful, but you never know. I just don't see click doing that well. I think it'll do between 130-160 domestically, but then it could pass the 200 million mark. I think x3 will get betweeen 220-250 if it's a home run script wise, but if it sucks then it'll have a big opening weekend and fall quickly, probably wll do 160-180 million. The trailer looks good, but i'm not a 100 percent sold with the writers of x3.

[Retroman]

X-MEN AT THE BOX OFFICE

X-MEN (2000)
Domestic: $157,299,717 53.1%
+ Foreign: $138,700,000 46.9%

= Worldwide: $295,999,717


X2 (2003)
Domestic: $214,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $191,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: $406,449,694

Source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=xmen.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=x2.htm

[Neto Magnus]

see i was right. well, domestically speaking.

[DarknessOfDeath]

"It'll take it straight up with a twist"

heh...damn been watching Goldeneye...:p

[Angamb]

X-MEN AT THE BOX OFFICE

X-MEN (2000)
Domestic: $157,299,717 53.1%
+ Foreign: $138,700,000 46.9%

= Worldwide: $295,999,717


X2 (2003)
Domestic: $214,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $191,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: $406,449,694

Source: http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=xmen.htm
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=x2.htm

For me:

X3 (2006)
Domestic: $300,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $350,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: 650,449,694

[Avalanche]

For me:

X3 (2006)
Domestic: $300,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $350,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: 650,449,694
You think foreign will be larger than domestic?

[GothicPowerMix1]

You think foreign will be larger than domestic?

Usually is with Big Blockbusters :o

[RagingTempest]

:up: I'm think the movie will make 70 million opening weekend and 300 million worlwide, I mean F4 made 56 million it's opening weekend, which was biggest opening week sales in 2005 at that point. X3 will be better than that movie and has a lot more hype than it. Also with no real competion that weekend, it will be #1...hopefully!!:confused:

[Iceman]

Usually is with Big Blockbusters :o

That's definitely true but does not apply to the same extent with comic book movies.

[Aiden]

The thing with these animated movies is that we underestimate them. Look at Ice Age 2. 70 million in one weekend. Cars will make big money. I'm sure of it. Over The Hedge has the potential to make big money. X3 will have a massive opening weekend. Above 80 million. Overall,including domestic and foreign, I'd say around the 500 million mark or there abouts

[flavio_lebeau]

i expect 550 million worldwide at least...X2 made almost 400 million, it will be easy for X3 to reach its top, since X2 was a great film.

[flavio_lebeau]

That's definitely true but does not apply to the same extent with comic book movies.
it does.

[YJ1]

Exactly, X3 needs to at least hit 250m domestically for a sequel to be greenlit and even then I think Fox will be cautious about doing that.

You people are insane. If X3 simply does X2 type numbers, it'll be a mega hit and X4 will be guaranteed in some form. Batman Begins limped to the 200 million domestic mark itself and the WB couldn't green light BB2 fast enough. BB spent 150 million to make and another 100 million to market. X3 won't have to spend near that to market the film with Fox's marketing juggernaut. DVD sales alone will be massive. X3 doesn't need to get anywhere near 300 million but it would be nice to see.

[TNC9852002]

My Estimates:

Domestic: 236m
Worldwide: 478m

:( Not enough for a X4 greenlight, IMO

-TNC

[Excel]

For me:

X3 (2006)
Domestic: $300,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $350,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: 650,449,694

im sorry but no way any of those happen.

1. its domestic gross will be like the first 2 movies-more then the foreign take.
2. compition is huge, much bigger then x1 or x2.
3. the films is darker then the first 2, that will limit its appeal.
4. this doesnt appeal to kids, and is sandwiched between monster kid flicks CARS and OVER THE HEDGE


My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide

[berzerko89]

500 million worlwide!!! wohoooo!!!

[JP]

im sorry but no way any of those happen.

1. its domestic gross will be like the first 2 movies-more then the foreign take.
2. compition is huge, much bigger then x1 or x2.
3. the films is darker then the first 2, that will limit its appeal.
4. this doesnt appeal to kids, and is sandwiched between monster kid flicks CARS and OVER THE HEDGE


My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide

This makes the most sense. :up:

[berzerko89]

im sorry but no way any of those happen.

1. its domestic gross will be like the first 2 movies-more then the foreign take.
2. compition is huge, much bigger then x1 or x2.
3. the films is darker then the first 2, that will limit its appeal.
4. this doesnt appeal to kids, and is sandwiched between monster kid flicks CARS and OVER THE HEDGE


My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide

AMEN :up: :up: :up:!!!

[Sun_Down]

I think it'll pull down numbers close to X2's, but not much more. Maybe $450 million worldwide

[YJ1]

My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide

That looks about right.

I'm going to use my "Price Is Right" later post privilege and say...

463,000,001 worldwide.

[TNC9852002]

My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide
Pretty close to my estimates... :up:

-TNC

[josh8]

neither x1 nor x2 had any legs after big openings. and they were both relatively well-received movies. add that and the fact that all movies these days are failing to last long, i think x3's opening weekend will be very crucial.

i'm pretty sure that x3 will be bigger than x2, since i dont think anyone has been turned off the franchise, and if anything more people will be interested. so i'm expecting a bigger opening weekend.

since it's a holiday (and with inflation), the 3-day figure might be a little better than x2's, at around $90 million, and then monday's gravy will make a 4-day total of about $110 million. i'd say after that, it can make about 2.3x that much.

final domestic take: ~$250 million. not at vast improvement, but still a growing franchise, which aint bad at all.

[chaseter]

I will guess X3 will pull in nearly 100 million opening weekend.

[Advanced Dark]

100+ Million opening weekend with a 250 domestic take and a 300 million international take. 550 million total.

[Lightning Strykez!]

im sorry but no way any of those happen.

1. its domestic gross will be like the first 2 movies-more then the foreign take.
2. compition is huge, much bigger then x1 or x2.
3. the films is darker then the first 2, that will limit its appeal.
4. this doesnt appeal to kids, and is sandwiched between monster kid flicks CARS and OVER THE HEDGE


My prediction, basedon everything is :

-82 million 3 day
-101 4 day memoiral weekend
-246 million u.s. total
-217 million foreign take
=463 million worldwide

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

[chaseter]

X3 will easily beat its predecesors.

[Downhere]

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

Amen! I think this could really do well and go over 500 million worldwide.

[josh8]

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

i would be nothing but ecstatic if x3 were to break out, but i just dont see it happening. the only big movies in recent years that have been able to pull off the feat of "legs" are kids movies (harry potter most notably), religiousy backed productions (passion, narnia), and few others (POTC and batman begins).

the x-men movies have never caught on like that, and unfortunately, i dont see that happening this late in the game. BUT, if any x-movie had the chance of doing so, i think this would be it because of all the changes that have been made that sound fan-friendly. it's a longshot, and i guess it is possible.

[MJB]

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

Well Lightning if you know something we don't, I doubt the Sentinals will show up. If they are in the movie, then in my opinion it's asinine for FOX to not use them in marketing. I think everyone knows the Sentinals, and it'll help if they are Marketed as opposed to being a surprise, whom I believe isn't in the movie.

The Sentinals are a merchindising asset alone it makes no sense what so ever not to use them to help sell the movie.

[Halcohol]

^That's a good point, but remember we haven't seen much of the marketing. Since Ratner essentially confirmed their presence in the movie, I'd bet we might catch a glimpse of them in the next trailer or something.

[Downhere]

^That's a good point, but remember we haven't seen much of the marketing. Since Ratner essentially confirmed their presence in the movie, I'd bet we might catch a glimpse of them in the next trailer or something.

I believe we will see a glimpse in the next trailer since Ratner confirmed it that Sentinels ARE in the film now. Took a while, but he finally confirmed it.

[Iceman]

it does.

Check my statement again :o

Comic book movies that made more domestically (US) than abroad:

Hulk, Daredevil, Batman, Batman Returns, Batman Forever, Batman Begins, Punisher, Blade, Blade 2, Blade Trinity, X-Men, X2, Hellboy

Comic book movies that made more abroad:

Batman & Robin, Spiderman, Spiderman 2, Sin City, Superman

[LEX]

If this ends up be really successful and be on the top of the box office all weeks straight until Superman Returns opens, it'd be a great surprise. After seeing the major advertisement w/ The Fantastic Four movie, everyone will know about X3. This movie is Fox's biggest movie of this year. (Right?) Surely, they wouldn't just let it slide.

Or maybe I'm just being too optimistic.

[Electrix]

X-MEN AT THE BOX OFFICE

X-MEN (2000)
Domestic: $157,299,717 53.1%
+ Foreign: $138,700,000 46.9%

= Worldwide: $295,999,717


X2 (2003)
Domestic: $214,949,694 52.9%
+ Foreign: $191,500,000 47.1%

= Worldwide: $406,449,694


For continuity sake I hope we reach the $600,000,000 mark :D

[Downhere]

600m would be phenominal, but 500-550 is a safer bet. Although, X3 could really break out and hit the 600 mil mark. That would be a dream come true for many X-fans as it would put X4 on the fast track!

[lordofthenerds]

For continuity sake I hope we reach the $600,000,000 mark :D
That would be amazing, but I doubt it. Especially with all the competion its getting.

[LEX]

If it does exceed our expectations, do you think Fox would immediately greenlight X4 and start on it about several months later w/o waiting three years?

[narrows101]

If it does exceed our expectations, do you think Fox would immediately greenlight X4 and start on it about several months later w/o waiting three years?
I think the next thing we seen on the screen will be the Wolverine movie since that's already under way (last I read it was on its second draft). However, I don't think that will start filming until next year at the earliest since I think Hugh is pretty tied up - he finished The Prestige on Saturday, we don't know what he's doing after that but it can't be Wolverine since that's not ready, and starting in June/July he's going back home to prepare for his arena tour in August/September. There's an unconfirmed rumor that he may be doing a Spike Lee movie in the fall (playing Max Schmeling) but no definitive word on that. So that's pretty much the year. Another X4 movie may be greenlit, but these things take so long to make between script, casting, pre-production, filming, post-production.

Oh - and I think X-3 will beat X-2's $85 million on opening weekend (especially since it's a holiday weekend and they use Friday-Monday numbers).

[Advanced Dark]

One thing some of you might be forgetting is the growth of the international market and huge # of theatres that have popped up overseas. X3 should make more money overseas than domestic like Fantastic Four did. 550 million worldwide is my target.

[invincible mann]

i agree with ragingtemper on this about 70 million domestic
worldwide in the 300 million range

[narrows101]

i agree with ragingtemper on this about 70 million domestic
worldwide in the 300 million range
IMO - 70 million is too low. X2's opening weekend was $85 million and I think it may match or do more than that - I don't think it will below X2.

[PhoenixRising]

Im thinking 530 mil worldwide. But im hoping for 570-600 mil worldwide.

[Kira]

I pray and I hope that it would make way over 500 millions, but I think it's going to be more like 450. Pretty close to X2.

[PhoenixRising]

I pray and I hope that it would make way over 500 millions, but I think it's going to be more like 450. Pretty close to X2.

I know ALOT of people who werent interested at all in X1, but once they heard of Jeans death in X2 they flocked. Those same people say they want to see X3 most of all because of the famous Dark Phoenix storyline. X3 should make quite a bit more than X2 just like X2 made more than X1

[PhoenixRisen]

Since X2 did approx. 37% better than X1, my low estimate would be that X3 will continue this "trend" and top X2 by the same percentage. However, I feel that X3 will probably be twice the improvement (moviewise) over X2 that X2 was over X1...so I think it could double that percentage increase. Very scientific/logical. Therefore...

$300M-$370M domestic (will go with the middle, $335M)
$260M-$330M foreign (will say $295M)
$560M-$700M worldwide (guess=$630M)

P.S. If I was the last one bidding on "The Price Is Right," I would add $1 to the highest bid. hehehehe :D

[LEX]

The curiousity will get the best of them. Fox needs to keep this thing locked up and stir up the curiousity to get the general audience watch it.

[PhoenixRising]

With the whole "Last of the trilogy" controversy and all the: who dies? who doesnt die? who is cured? who wins? sentinels? gambit? phoenix? This movie will far surpass X2.

[PhoenixRisen]

I think X3 will have a surprisingly large number of repeat viewers due to the plot twists (and of course Famke Janssen's performance). I know I will end up seeing it at least a couple times in the theater. :D

[Advanced Dark]

Since X2 did approx. 37% better than X1, my low estimate would be that X3 will continue this "trend" and top X2 by the same percentage. However, I feel that X3 will probably be twice the improvement (moviewise) over X2 that X2 was over X1...so I think it could double that percentage increase. Very scientific/logical. Therefore...

$300M-$370M domestic (will go with the middle, $335M)
$260M-$330M foreign (will say $295M)
$560M-$700M worldwide (guess=$630M)

P.S. If I was the last one bidding on "The Price Is Right," I would add $1 to the highest bid. hehehehe :D

I hope you're right for my wallet. That would be huge and way unexpected for X3 to break 300 domestic. It's pretty dark and violent which might limit repeat viewings from the anyone under 13. Hopefully it's enough. 250 would perfect but anything over is amazing.

[PhoenixRisen]

I hope you're right for my wallet. That would be huge and way unexpected for X3 to break 300 domestic. It's pretty dark and violent which might limit repeat viewings from the anyone under 13. Hopefully it's enough. 250 would perfect but anything over is amazing.
LOL I put my money where my mouth is (fingers are?--um no, sounds bad) and bought some MVL stock a couple weeks ago...so thx for the Yahoo! Finance link AD! :D

[invincible mann]

it will have competitition this time though
the da vinci code
and i doubt its going to bomb on may 19th
so on the 26th the 2 films will battle
and its a holiday weekend
anythings possible
and yes i will see X3 0n the 26th

[Lightning Strykez!]

i agree with ragingtemper on this about 70 million domestic
worldwide in the 300 million range

$70 million? :confused:

X3 will likely gross that much by Saturday on the strength of nostalgia and hype factor alone.

[LEX]

Girls will go see X3 for Hugh Jackman, Aaron Stanford, Jimmy Marsden, Ben Foster and Shawn Ashmore.

Boys will go see it for Famke Janssen (oh, yeah), Halle Berry, Rebecca Romjin, Anna Paquin, Dania, Mota (?), and Ellen Page.

24 fan will go see it for Shohreh after her speechless performance on the show.

Star Wars fans will go see X3 since they're bored and it's the only sci-fi film around that time.

Gandalf fans will go see it for Ian McKellan.

Trekkies will go see it for Captain Picard, Patrick Stewart.

Curious audience will go see it.

X2 fans will see it just to find out what becomes of Jean.

Etc etc etc.

I have faith in X3...

[invincible mann]

just whats the maximum people think X3 will make on the 26th?
85 million?
90 million?
100 million?
just curious

[PhoenixRisen]

Another factor: Bringing the Dark Phoenix saga to the big screen for the first time. Besides nostalgia, newcomers will be hooked!
Also, the final trailer and TV commercials will be interesting...

[LEX]

Yeah, the Dark Phoenix saga is (I think) considered one of the greatest storylines ever in the comic history. It should be great to finally see it on the big screen.

[PhoenixRising]

Lets not forget that over time costs increase. This movie will make more not only because more people will go see it but also because the cost of seeing a movie has gone up over time, therefore the ammount of money a movie makes will increase even if the same ammount of people go see it.

[LEX]

I'm just worried how piracy is going to effect the box office. :o

[invincible mann]

piracy is always a problem
but i think hollywoods cracking down on it
so far no bootleg editions of X3

[Halcohol]

piracy is always a problem
but i think hollywoods cracking down on it
so far no bootleg editions of X3
That's cause the movie's probably not even finished yet lol

[josh8]

Lets not forget that over time costs increase. This movie will make more not only because more people will go see it but also because the cost of seeing a movie has gone up over time, therefore the ammount of money a movie makes will increase even if the same ammount of people go see it.

unfortunately, inflation and a bunch of other factors are also having a negative effect on moviegoing. the current trend is seeing less people going to movie theaters (i cant remember the percent).

but you're right, if the same amount of people go see this movie (hopefully) than x3 will make more than x2. however, the bread and butter of big blockbusters comes from repeat business, and i hear that's down a lot now too, no matter how good the movies are.

[Pickle-El]

Thanks in large part to X2, I think the opening for X3 should be in similar range to X2. (Around 80 Million, which is MUCH more now than it was 3 years ago)

Taking all considerations into account, even if X3 doesn't quite have the 'heart' of X2. (Which many fear for) The action should pick up. I don't see why X3 shouldn't hit around 220-240 Domestically. And about the same Internationally.

WorldWide, I think it'll be in the 450-510 range IF the story is told in such a fashion that people won't see it the first time and walk out saying, 'Wow. There were so many explosions!' There has to be a real placement on the 'cure' storyline....(One reason why Singer is such a good storyteller, he knows how to deal with character in real life situations)

Basically, it should open big like X2. A lot though, will be left to Ratner's ability to let a story unfold on the screen.....I don't worry about the action. I just hope the story is up it.

[invincible mann]

trust me that doesnt stop pirates
often bootlegs are released with unfinished effects
bootlegs arent known for their quality

[phantom47]

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4

[YJ1]

With the whole "Last of the trilogy" controversy and all the: who dies? who doesnt die? who is cured? who wins? sentinels?phoenix? This movie will far surpass X2.

The only thing that concerns me is word of mouth for general movie goers. If these "deaths" aren't handled right, they could turn people off in a hurry. Daredevil did very well at the box office but "killing" Elektra like they did turned off a lot of repeat customers and hurt the word of mouth business. Please don't chime in on what you thought of the Daredevil movie, the quality of the film isn't my point here. It's the death of any character that general movie audiences have grown an attachment to that matters. I think it's safe to say that Scott, Xavier and even Jean aren't exactly sure bets to finish this trilogy still breathing.

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4?

Anything equal to or surpassing X2's numbers will guarantee future X-Films. $220 million domestic or above...

[RagingTempest]

Over 400 million is great number!! How would that not green light an X4!!!:confused:

[aaron]

thinking bout 450 worldwide

[TNC9852002]

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4
They would need a worldwide gross north of $475m, IMO

-TNC

[Excel]

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

if anythingim underestimating the hype, and while im sure the fox marketing will be out of this world, the film flat out doesnt appeal to enough people(kids mainly) to give an opening weekend over 90 million while opening on memorial day. if x3 was released say, may 5th with no compitition, itd open to about 95 million. but the fact is, alot of people on friday,saturday, and sunday will wait till monday, which will lower the weekend. rewatchability isnt an issue-i gave this a 3.0 multiplier while x2 had a 2.5 and x1 had a 2.8.

yeah its possible itll beat its predecsors by a lot, but not all that much.

Final Predictions:

FRIDAY, may 26th- 32.8 million
SATURDAY, may 27th- 26.2 million
SUNDAY, may 27th-23.4 million
3 day total - 82 million
MONDAY, may 28th- 20.2 million
4 day total-102 million
2nd WEEKEND, june 2nd-4th - 36.6 million, -55%
U.S. total-246 million

[phantom47]

if anythingim underestimating the hype, and while im sure the fox marketing will be out of this world, the film flat out doesnt appeal to enough people(kids mainly) to give an opening weekend over 90 million while opening on memorial day. if x3 was released say, may 5th with no compitition, itd open to about 95 million. but the fact is, alot of people on friday,saturday, and sunday will wait till monday, which will lower the weekend. rewatchability isnt an issue-i gave this a 3.0 multiplier while x2 had a 2.5 and x1 had a 2.8.

yeah its possible itll beat its predecsors by a lot, but not all that much.

Final Predictions:

FRIDAY, may 26th- 32.8 million
SATURDAY, may 27th- 26.2 million
SUNDAY, may 27th-23.4 million
3 day total - 82 million
MONDAY, may 28th- 20.2 million
4 day total-102 million
2nd WEEKEND, june 2nd-4th - 36.6 million, -55%
U.S. total-246 million

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

[Advanced Dark]

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

Those totals are way low. Ticket prices are higher than X2 and there are more screens for X3 to be released on.

[GothicPowerMix1]

$100,000000000000,0000000000000000000,000000000000 0000000,0000000000.00

:o

[WorthyStevens]

My guess...

05/26 $39,000,000
05/27 $37,000,000 $76,000,000
05/28 $33,000,000 $109,000,000
05/29 $27,000,000 $136,000,000

[MJB]

I think X3 will have a surprisingly large number of repeat viewers due to the plot twists (and of course Famke Janssen's performance). I know I will end up seeing it at least a couple times in the theater. :D


I wish I shared you faith in the goodness of the script. The trailer look good, but Kinberg(especially Kinberg) and Penn does not inspire confidence.

[demitri_vampiro]

well i hope x-3 does the same amount as PotC did. 300+ in the us and another 350+ outside us.
that would be enough for x-4

[Advanced Dark]

^ That would be more than enough for X4. All we need for X4 is a profit cause that pays everyone. 200 domestic and 200 international would be more than enough but Fox is gonna go all out on this one. I think 300+ would be completely unexpected but great.

[PhoenixRisen]

I wish I shared you faith in the goodness of the script. The trailer look good, but Kinberg(especially Kinberg) and Penn does not inspire confidence.
I guess I am lucky in that I am a "blank slate" when it comes to the writers. But even so, I know that someone can strike out a bunch of times and suddenly hit a home run...And then proceed to strike out again...Or vice versa...Just because someone makes a bad movie (let's see, "1941"?) doesn't mean their next will be bad ("Raiders")...and just because someone makes a great movie doesn't mean their next will be great...(umm, "Close Encounters"..."1941").
Although I think the movie will be great, I'm not going on "faith," just what I have actually seen with my own eyes, opposed to speculation or judging on past performance. For example, the fact that FOX is showing X3 at Cannes is just another "good sign." So far, I haven't seen anything of the actual product I don't like.
P.S. I am now leaning toward the high end of my previously stated ranges... :D

[Excel]

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

x3 is the kinda movie thatll have midnight screenings wh8ich mean an inflated opening dsay and no saturday rise.

see fantastic four.

[Lightning Strykez!]

x3 is the kinda movie thatll have midnight screenings wh8ich mean an inflated opening dsay and no saturday rise.

see fantastic four.


Fantastic Four didn't have midnight showings.

[Eros]

whats hte point most people will just download it and avoid the theaters.

[Excel]

Fantastic Four didn't have midnight showings.

my theater did i believe..anyways its not even that-most big event movies-like x3-have bigger opening days then saturday, unless it has major kid appeal. mid night screenings, presales, fanbases, and just all around hype make this.

see star wars, harry potter, ect.

[Psionic Force]

So now that the judge has decided that the author of DaVinci Code is not at fault for anything, and the movie will STILL be released on May 19th, how do you all think it will do? Minds change?

[Advanced Dark]

I don't think anyone thought the movie was going to be delayed in reality. There was a hope that it might but it won't effect opening week at all. Not sure how many X-Men fans under the age of 18 are going to rush to DaVinci code, and DaVinci code isn't likely a movie fans will see over and over. X3 is that type of film and will get multiple viewings. Having a best selling book doesn't mean best selling movie. DaVinci should do good but it won't touch X3's final tally.

[Pickle-El]

I don't think anyone thought the movie was going to be delayed in reality. There was a hope that it might but it won't effect opening week at all. Not sure how many X-Men fans under the age of 18 are going to rush to DaVinci code, and DaVinci code isn't likely a movie fans will see over and over. X3 is that type of film and will get multiple viewings. Having a best selling book doesn't mean best selling movie. DaVinci should do good but it won't touch X3's final tally.


Very bold statement....

[WorthyStevens]

Da Vinci is such a wildcard. It could pull a Passion of the Christ, or it could pull a King Kong.

[JustABill]

I think it's gonna pull a Kong actually, despite appearing to be a very solid film, with an amazingly great cast, and a good book for it base. I don't think it's gonna be this huge summer blockbuster success. People would rather see cool special effects of superheroes, than a good murder mystery during the summer.

[WorthyStevens]

The book was huge, and the trailers look very appealing. But sometimes a huge fanbase doesn't always translate into huge profit. *coughserenitycough*

But this does have HUGE controversy, which will make the movie even more of a wildcard.

[JustABill]

Well, I guess we'll all know next month won't we. Wow, they are both that close...Wow.

This crept up on us. This is gonna take a moment to sink in on me.

[silver_arrow]

Girls will go see X3 for Hugh Jackman, Aaron Stanford, Jimmy Marsden, Ben Foster and Shawn Ashmore.

Boys will go see it for Famke Janssen (oh, yeah), Halle Berry, Rebecca Romjin, Anna Paquin, Dania, Mota (?), and Ellen Page.

24 fan will go see it for Shohreh after her speechless performance on the show.

Star Wars fans will go see X3 since they're bored and it's the only sci-fi film around that time.

Gandalf fans will go see it for Ian McKellan.

Trekkies will go see it for Captain Picard, Patrick Stewart.

Curious audience will go see it.

X2 fans will see it just to find out what becomes of Jean.

Etc etc etc.

I have faith in X3...

Plus there are xmen dormant fans. By dormant I meant you don't see them so hyped, don't talk xmen, they just live, work, go to parties,etc. But tell them that xmen3 are coming and they would talk and you'd know that they were once fans. Well, I just met some of them. :)

[MJB]

Fantastic Four didn't have midnight showings.


Like hell it didn't. Midnight showings depend on where you're at. Down in S Florida all the theaters I've ever been too have midnight to as late as 1250am showings on friday and Saturday. Heck even on the week days the popular flims have showing going up to 11pm. Now I've been to cities like Charlotte NC and Birmingham Al and their latest shows be like 9-930 and like 1030 on weekends.

[LEX]

A friend of mine said he went to a midnight showing for Fantastic Four.

[PhoenixRisen]

I was trying to find what I predicted from the opening weekend and thought this thread was a good "reality check." :)

I didn't make an opening weekend prediction but predicted the overall totals using a formula that says X3 would do somewhere between (a) the same percentage increase between X1 and X2 and (b) double that percentage increase.

X1's opening weekend was $54,471,475.
X2's opening weekend was $85,558,731, up 57% from X1.

Therefore, X3's opening weekend would be somewhere between $134 million (up 57% from X2) and 183 million (up 104% from X2). Splitting the difference = $158 million. So the average for each of the four days would be about $40 million. So I would expect a $120 million 3-day opening for X3 with a $158 million 4-day total. :D I hope I did the math right!!

[AVP82]

I was trying to find what I predicted from the opening weekend and thought this thread was a good "reality check." :)

I didn't make an opening weekend prediction but predicted the overall totals using a formula that says X3 would do somewhere between (a) the same percentage increase between X1 and X2 and (b) double that percentage increase.

X1's opening weekend was $54,471,475.
X2's opening weekend was $85,558,731, up 57% from X1.

Therefore, X3's opening weekend would be somewhere between $134 million (up 57% from X2) and 183 million (up 104% from X2). Splitting the difference = $158 million. So the average for each of the four days would be about $40 million. So I would expect a $120 million 3-day opening for X3 with a $158 million 4-day total. :D I hope I did the math right!!

I think you might be overestimating...the three day total is between 100-110 million according to some sources.

[phantom47]

I was trying to find what I predicted from the opening weekend and thought this thread was a good "reality check." :)

I didn't make an opening weekend prediction but predicted the overall totals using a formula that says X3 would do somewhere between (a) the same percentage increase between X1 and X2 and (b) double that percentage increase.

X1's opening weekend was $54,471,475.
X2's opening weekend was $85,558,731, up 57% from X1.

Therefore, X3's opening weekend would be somewhere between $134 million (up 57% from X2) and 183 million (up 104% from X2). Splitting the difference = $158 million. So the average for each of the four days would be about $40 million. So I would expect a $120 million 3-day opening for X3 with a $158 million 4-day total. :D I hope I did the math right!!WOW that is KINDA off!!! No movie has ever brought in that much, im just trying to be realistic...ill say 120 with friday-Monday

[phoenix_force]

its already like 107 million calaculated so far for friday saturday i think

[phantom47]

its already like 107 million calaculated so far for friday saturday i thinkI believe thats an estimate for Friday - Sunday

[PhoenixRisen]

I think you might be overestimating...the three day total is between 100-110 million according to some sources.
MAYBE!?!?! I just wanted to see what my little formula would come up with, plus is interesting to look back and see people's predictions!! :D

[antariksh]

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20060528/114885896100.html

It has been confirmed form SONY that DVC did $92 million overseas boxoffice this weekend more than X3.

SAD news!!! :(

DAMN DVC

[antariksh]

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20060528/114885896100.html

It has been confirmed form SONY that DVC did $92 million overseas boxoffice this weekend more than X3.

SAD news!!! :(

DAMN DVC

[antariksh]

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20060528/114885896100.html

It has been confirmed form SONY that DVC did $92 million overseas boxoffice this weekend more than X3.

SAD news!!! :(

DAMN DVC

[antariksh]

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20060528/114885896100.html

It has been confirmed form SONY that DVC did $92 million overseas boxoffice this weekend more than X3.

SAD news!!! :(

[antariksh]

http://movies.yahoo.com/mv/news/va/20060528/114885896100.html

It has been confirmed form SONY that DVC did $92 million overseas boxoffice this weekend more than X3.

SAD news!!! :(

[antariksh]

SORRY guys for posting it 5 times

[The Incredible Hulk]

overseas box office doesnt count for much towards a movies bottom line The studios get paid a flat fee up front by the distributors in the various countries where the film is released. They get the same amount there whether the movie tanks or is a mega-hit. Hence, the reason you only see domestic totals factored into a movie being a success or not.

[phantom47]

it doesnt say what X3 made...im pretty sure it not 92 but i hope its somewhere between 65-85

[The Incredible Hulk]

like I said, X3 couldve made $400 million overseas this weekend, and all it would do is help Fox negotiate a bigger distribution fee for X4 or any spinoffs. They got paid for X3 before it even hit theaters there