Iron Man BO thread

[Figs]

Doesn't matter how much marketing they put into it. Kids will like IM a whole lot more than SR. SR is nothing but an overhyped, futurestic, chain reaction pile up on the screen. I've seen the trailer. It will get bad reviews, bad WOM, and be be forgotten quickly. It will make some. If it makes 100 domestics it will be fortunate. You guys talk about how IM will be smoked by Chronicles, and Indy, what will those films do to SR when they open SR's 2nd and 3rd weekend ? Wave by, by to SR. At least IM has 2 solid weeks. 80 in marketing will go down the tubes. 80 in marketing for IM will produce gold. Nobody is thinking IM will do SM 2 #'s. If it does 200 domestic, 200 overseas, 400 WW it will be a huge suscess.


I'm not trying to be an Iron Man fanboy but I'm definetly agreeing on Carp Man with this.

[Excel]

You guys talk about how IM will be smoked by Chronicles, and Indy, what will those films do to SR when they open SR's 2nd and 3rd weekend ? Wave by, by to SR. At least IM has 2 solid weeks. 80 in marketing will go down the tubes. 80 in marketing for IM will produce gold. Nobody is thinking IM will do SM 2 #'s.

By the time Narnia opens and then Indiana, Iron Man's numbers will be too small to take any major hit. The real hit will be loss of theaters and screens. As for SR, itll be in its 2nd weekend when Narnia opens. It wont start losing theaters heavily until June; though Iron Man will be limited to 1 screen as theater max once Indiana Jones opens.


If it does 200 domestic, 200 overseas, 400 WW it will be a huge suscess.

Youve been saying 80-90 maybe even 100 million opening weekend; so your saying an opening weekend to total multipler of 2.1 or below would be great? Those are good totals only IF it opens under 75 million; anything over that would indicate poor word of mouth.

[Carp Man]

Where to start Excel. Where to start. I beg to differ. You assume SR will do 40 to 45 million opening weekend. Is not going to happen. 20, 25 at the most, which if IM has an 80 opening would leave 55 to 60 2nd weekend. That's 130, 135 off its 1st 2 weekends. add in the 8 other days at let's for the sake of argument is 5 million a day. Add another 40 to that 130, 135 and you have 170 to 175 by the time Chronicels opens. It will lose no theaters its 2nd weekend, more than likley will gain some. That is my prediction, and I'm sticking to it. If I'm mistaken, OH WELL. And you know me Excel, I'll be here. I don't run and hide if I'm wrong. It's not going to do 90, 100 opening weekend. I never said that. 70 to 80 is I think is in the ballpark. At least 70. 25 to 30 opening day. 25 opening would put it around 70. 30 opening would put it around 80. If it should open 35 to 40, then you are reaching that 90 to 100 range. Don't think it will happen, but would be great. In 91 days we will see.

[Excel]

Oh my god...where to start....

You assume SR will do 40 to 45 million opening weekend. Is not going to happen. 20, 25 at the most.

Remains to be seen, however given the look of the film and the size of ad campign, I can personally gaurentee it will not open a penny under 30 million. Itd ads campaign will be far too large and eye catching to not garner some sort of attention and in this day, 30 million opening weekend for a film as large scale as that is a joke.

which if IM has an 80 opening would leave 55 to 60 2nd weekend. That's 130, 135 off its 1st 2 weekends. add in the 8 other days at let's for the sake of argument is 5 million a day.

*Dies laughing*

Carp, going from 80 to 60 is a 25% weekend to weekend drop in its 2nd weekend. Haha...even spiderman 1 dropped 38% at a time when films didnt drop big. There is NO WAY % chance no possibilite way this film drops less than 45%, I would say 50% but I am generous. Its a fanbase film thatll open well do fans. It will drop big its 2nd weekend.

And you forgot monday-through thursday.

Add another 40 to that 130, 135 and you have 170 to 175 by the time Chronicels opens. It will lose no theaters its 2nd weekend, more than likley will gain some. That is my prediction, and I'm sticking to it. If I'm mistaken, OH WELL. And you know me Excel, I'll be here. I don't run and hide if I'm wrong. It's not going to do 90, 100 opening weekend. I never said that. 70 to 80 is I think is in the ballpark. At least 70. 25 to 30 opening day. 25 opening would put it around 70. 30 opening would put it around 80. If it should open 35 to 40, then you are reaching that 90 to 100 range. Don't think it will happen, but would be great. In 91 days we will see

wow...I dont know what to say...well, there is possible it will GAIN theaters, lol, it would be in around 4000 it wont be going up...

I dont know what to say except thats its remarkably obvious you have no damn idea what your talking about,

2nd weekend drops for superhero films / their tomato meter

xmen: 57% / 79%
spiderman: 38% / 91%
x2: 64% / 87%
hulk: 70% / 66%
spidey 2: 47% / 93%
batman begins: 45% / 83%
x3: 67% / 57%
superman returns: 59% / 77%
spiderman 3: 67% / 62%


As you can see Carp, even the films with the higest tomatometer-spiderman, batman, superman, x2-all drop big in the 2nd weekend. But you think Iron Man will only drop 25%?

If it opens to 80 somehow, its 2nd weekend will not top 40 million. Bank on it.

[Carp Man]

All those drops 2nd weekend how about telling us all what opened the 2nd weekend for all those movies you have listed ? I'll bet most of them had 1 or 2 big movies opening, like FF had Wedding Crashers, and CATCF opening it's 2nd weekend. IM has only 1 weak, movie opening it's 2nd weekend. I'd like to know where this 50 % drop will come from. It does 80 opening weekend, SR takes 20, what movie will take the other 20 million to equal a 50 % boxoffice drop? Even if it doees 30 that still leaves 50 for IM. which is less than a 40 % drop assuming 80 opening weekend. IM should have 3,800 to 4,000 theaters opening. Another 100 or 200 theaters could be added 2nd weekend. SR will not require that many screens. 1 or 2 per theater at the most. Cmille, and Hunter say 70 to 80 opening weekend. I'm impressed. And dat ain't easy to impress me. 49.3 % say 70 or more opening weekend. Better come up from your 50 prediction.

[CaptainStacy]

Im thinking 60-70 million....:im:

[Excel]

Ok, here are the biggest openers of that weekend.

xmen: 57% - WHAT LIES BENEATH - 29 million
spiderman: 38% - UNFAITHFUL - 14 million
x2: 54% - DADDY DAY CARE - 27 million
hulk: 70% - CHARLIES ABGELS 2 - 38 million
spidey 2: 47% - ANCHORMAN - 25 Million
batman begins: 45% - BEWITCHED- 20 million
x3: 67% - THE BREAKUP - 39 million
superman returns: 59% - PIRATES 2 -135 Million
spiderman 3: 62% - 28 WEEKS LATER - 9 million

Only superman returns faced a real huge hit and SRs opening will top all except Pirates 2 and possibly break up or Charlies Angels.

[Ironfan72]

I'm not concerned about Iron Man's opening, I'm looking forward to seeing an entertaining film, since I'm a huge Iron Man fan, I'll being seeing this film muliple times as well as every person I've spoken to here in town.
I hope it will do big numbers, if not, well, thats ok, I will not stake my reputation on what possible numbers it will make, and I curtainly will not go after others on here for what they predicted, thats rather childish and immature.
Will SR hurt Iron Man's second week, most likely, its G rated and that will attract alot of families were Iron Man will be PG-13, which will keep alot of kids away.

[Carp Man]

I'm not concerned about Iron Man's opening, I'm looking forward to seeing an entertaining film, since I'm a huge Iron Man fan, I'll being seeing this film muliple times as well as every person I've spoken to here in town.
I hope it will do big numbers, if not, well, thats ok, I will not stake my reputation on what possible numbers it will make, and I curtainly will not go after others on here for what they predicted, thats rather childish and immature.
Will SR hurt Iron Man's second week, most likely, its G rated and that will attract alot of families were Iron Man will be PG-13, which will keep alot of kids away.

It did not keep kids away from TF's.

[Carp Man]

Ok, here are the biggest openers of that weekend.

xmen: 57% - WHAT LIES BENEATH - 29 million
spiderman: 38% - UNFAITHFUL - 14 million
x2: 54% - DADDY DAY CARE - 27 million
hulk: 70% - CHARLIES ABGELS 2 - 38 million
spidey 2: 47% - ANCHORMAN - 25 Million
batman begins: 45% - BEWITCHED- 20 million
x3: 67% - THE BREAKUP - 39 million
superman returns: 59% - PIRATES 2 -135 Million
spiderman 3: 62% - 28 WEEKS LATER - 9 million

Only superman returns faced a real huge hit and SRs opening will top all except Pirates 2 and possibly break up or Charlies Angels.

I'm sure there were more the 1 movie opening those 2nd weekends. A lot of those drops especially Hulk, and SR, were partly because they got bad reviews before it opened, then bad WOM. In Spidermans case, Spider-Man opened at 114.8. Spider-Man 2 opened at 88.1. Spider-Man 3 opened at 151.1. When a movie opens that high, of cource it will have a big drop the 2nd weekend. Spider-Man made 71.4 2nd weekend. Spider-Man 2 made 45.1 2nd weekend. Spider-Man 3 made 58.1 2nd weekend, so everything is revelent, and no comparision to IM's situation. :oldrazz: SR's opening weekend will top all ? :oldrazz: I wanted to know what AD was smoking, you must be smoking the same stuff. So you are saying that Speed Racer will top all those movies openings you have listed above, or am I reading that wrong ?

[Advanced Dark]

That superbowl spot was freaking amazing. I can't wait to see the next full trailer!!! That just raised the high end of my prediction.

Now I'm at 200-235mill. This one is gonna rock opening weekend. No it won't do spidey #'s but my 80-85 mill opening weekend is looking better.

[Ironman24]

I hope it will make $70-80 Million in its opening weekend, last nights commercial was awesome.

[FaT_tONle]

I think the Transformers vibe will be a boon to IM... there are definitely similarities there with villains like Iron Monger in there... plus its more realistic and you have a decent cast... this movie should be able to hit the 200 mark if they market this right.... but you have to have a close to 90 million or more for the opening weekend or hope it has darn good legs...

[Advanced Dark]

I got more of a Robocop on steroids vibe myself....which is a good thing.

[Excel]

It seems the super bowl spot didnt have the desired effect.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2008-02-04-results-chart_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
not be a buzz kill, but the poll has it ranked the 4th worst commercial of all the super bowl...it was the lowest film preview (Leatherheards was #1)

I'm sure there were more the 1 movie opening those 2nd weekends. A lot of those drops especially Hulk, and SR, were partly because they got bad reviews before it opened, then bad WOM. In Spidermans case, Spider-Man opened at 114.8. Spider-Man 2 opened at 88.1. Spider-Man 3 opened at 151.1. When a movie opens that high, of cource it will have a big drop the 2nd weekend. Spider-Man made 71.4 2nd weekend. Spider-Man 2 made 45.1 2nd weekend. Spider-Man 3 made 58.1 2nd weekend, so everything is revelent, and no comparision to IM's situation. :oldrazz: SR's opening weekend will top all ? :oldrazz: I wanted to know what AD was smoking, you must be smoking the same stuff. So you are saying that Speed Racer will top all those movies openings you have listed above, or am I reading that wrong ?

Hulk was false advertising and superman opened against pirates. no pirates, superman drops under 50%.

Sr will open at #1 for its weekend. Thats what I meant

[Iron_Stark]

It seems the super bowl spot didnt have the desired effect.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2008-02-04-results-chart_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
not be a buzz kill, but the poll has it ranked the 4th worst commercial of all the super bowl...it was the lowest film preview (Leatherheards was #1)



Hulk was false advertising and superman opened against pirates. no pirates, superman drops under 50%.

Sr will open at #1 for its weekend. Thats what I meant

That's just one person's opinion, go to the front page, ESPN, and other superbowl spots where people voted for thier favorite SB movie trailer and Iron Man comes out on top.

[Ironfan72]

That's just one person's opinion, go to the front page, ESPN, and other superbowl spots where people voted for thier favorite SB movie trailer and Iron Man comes out on top.

I've seen many poll's where Iron Man was in the top 5 commercials even winning a couple, so, one poll isn't going to make of break the film, it's a shame it didn't do better in the USA today poll, but if you look, they went with more products than movie trailers for there top 10, the closest movie was Wall-E at like 20.

[FaT_tONle]

Man if it wasn't for that tank scene it would have been perfect... what were they thinking doing a cartoon shot in there...

[Carp Man]

It seems the super bowl spot didnt have the desired effect.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/advertising/admeter/2008-02-04-results-chart_N.htm?loc=interstitialskip
not be a buzz kill, but the poll has it ranked the 4th worst commercial of all the super bowl...it was the lowest film preview (Leatherheards was #1)



Hulk was false advertising and superman opened against pirates. no pirates, superman drops under 50%.

Sr will open at #1 for its weekend. Thats what I meant

1 poll ? You think thats a buzzkill ? Nah. Hulk was just an awfull movie, and SR missed the mark. It did not know who it was tailored to. It was all over the place. Singer, and the marketing people missed the mark. I like the opinion here that TF's may be a help to IM. As for SR opening 1 week before Pirates, whose fault was that ? Bond 22 was suppose to open same weekend as IM, but you see who moved. IM will do great. I'm not worried in the least, and not even worried about SR being a crediable threat. I may be wrong, but hey that's what makes the world go round. How about those GIANTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[explode7]

That superbowl spot was pretty damn good. It's a shame it's in the least popular 5 in that poll. But I still think IM is going to make 100M Opening Weekend. I mean spiderman 3 made 151M on that same weekend if I'm not mistaken. I know IM doesn't have the popularity as spidey or a built up franchise but take away that and you will probably end up with a little over 100M.

[Carp Man]

That superbowl spot was pretty damn good. It's a shame it's in the least popular 5 in that poll. But I still think IM is going to make 100M Opening Weekend. I mean spiderman 3 made 151M on that same weekend if I'm not mistaken. I know IM doesn't have the popularity as spidey or a built up franchise but take away that and you will probably end up with a little over 100M.

There is no comparision between SM3, and IM. Yes they did open same weekend, and if marketing can capture the imagination of kids, and the public, who knows. To hit 100, it would have to have a 40 opening day. Don't see it. I think 30 will be tops for opening day. That would set it around 80, and that sounds about right to me, but hey, you never know.

[Advanced Dark]

Iron Man is kind of unique. It'll appeal to fans of the Superhero genre, Robocop, Transformers, James Bond, sci-fi fans, and the fans of all of these major stars.

[Advanced Dark]

Man if it wasn't for that tank scene it would have been perfect... what were they thinking doing a cartoon shot in there...

That was easily the best part of the teaser for me.

[SurfDUI]

Don't see it. I think 30 will be tops for opening day. That would set it around 80, and that sounds about right to me, but hey, you never know.

Dude, your so staunch in your estimates-
Do B.O. numbers really move anybody, but the studio heads?

A flying man of armor, despite the fan appeal is something movie goers haven't ever seen executed as such.

I can tell you that out of all the major principle actors in this movie, Iron Man will be their biggest B.O. showing, Howard, Paltrow - maybe Se7ven, even Downey, and Bridges. It's going to be makin bank late into June.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Is something wrong with me? I just haven't been overly impressed with IronMan's trailers. The suit looks pretty awsome but everything else, meh. And I hate that they keep playing genro rock music in the trailers, are we ever going to get a trailer thats not trying desperately to convince us that it is going to be a blast? How about a trailer with non rock music? I'm just not feeling the movie and I've been trying and trying for months now. I'm hoping this is like a Pirates 1 thing for me, where I talked about it like a dog then reluctantly saw it and loved it.

I'm still thinking 55 to 65mil opening with a 2.7 to 2.9 multiplier for either prediction.

I don't like to bash other people's predictions but this movie will not open to 100mil. It has a zero percent chance of that. If that somehow happened...wait it's not going to, so I'm not even going to make a bet.

[Carp Man]

Dude, your so staunch in your estimates-
Do B.O. numbers really move anybody, but the studio heads?

A flying man of armor, despite the fan appeal is something movie goers haven't ever seen executed as such.

I can tell you that out of all the major principle actors in this movie, Iron Man will be their biggest B.O. showing, Howard, Paltrow - maybe Se7ven, even Downey, and Bridges. It's going to be makin bank late into June.

Suscess at the boxofice = sequel. We have seen the results of poor boxoffice #'s. A Superman Returns sequel is stil up in the air, so yea boxoffice #'s should mean something to the fans. Plus it's fun to speculate. I hope your right. I'd love to see it. 100 weekend opening would be out of sight, and I hope it happens, but in my opinion (and it's all opinion), it's not likley. I ageee. It's different, it's new, it's exciting, it opens with no compitition, and it has name reconition among the cast. Everything is right for it to be big, and to have decent legs. Chronicels, and Indy will take a big chunk, but by that time it should have close to 200 domestic. So I'm not staunch in my estimation. It's just my opinion, and I hope I'm wrong.

[DaRkVeNgeanCe]

This movie is definitely going to be behind Indiana Jones and The Dark Knight.

[Carp Man]

This movie is definitely going to be behind Indiana Jones and The Dark Knight.

No argument there. It will be I feel in the top 10. I see TDK, Indy, Chronicels, and Harry Potter, as the top 4, not necessarly in that order for 08. IM will be from 5th to 10th place. 400 WW will be a tremendous suscess for IM.

[GlasgowBat]

i would like to ask everyone to re-read the first page.

boring daniel craig? casino royale flopping?



ouch


trailer is great. minus the tank bit. it was like something out of avideo game.

[FaT_tONle]

Here is the magic number guys... 300... that's all there is too it... anything less and they might as well go to Avengers... TIH will be lucky to get a sequel too... considering its a mid summer release and might get overlooked... I think the best we can hope for is...

IM: 190 dom 150 ww
TIH: 150 dom 120 ww

If that's the case both should get sequels... but if it turn out to be something like:

IM: 160 dom 110 ww
TIH 130 dom 90 ww

Then only IM will probably get a sequel... or they just go with Avengers in 2011 and no sequels before then.

[Mr. Socko]

Is something wrong with me? I just haven't been overly impressed with IronMan's trailers. The suit looks pretty awsome but everything else, meh. And I hate that they keep playing genro rock music in the trailers, are we ever going to get a trailer thats not trying desperately to convince us that it is going to be a blast? How about a trailer with non rock music? I'm just not feeling the movie and I've been trying and trying for months now. I'm hoping this is like a Pirates 1 thing for me, where I talked about it like a dog then reluctantly saw it and loved it.

I'm still think 55 to 65mil opening with a 2.7 to 2.9 multiplier for either prediction.

I don't like to bash othher people's predictions but this movie will not open to 100mil. It has a zero percent chance of that. If that somehow happened...wait it's not going to, so I'm not even going to make a bet.


Besides the part about Black Pearl, I am in agreement. I voted $50-60M opening weekend. Could change though.

[explode7]

^WRONG!!! Your predicitions are off. It will end up like this:

IM: 350M Domestic, 300M Overseas = 650M Worldwide

TIH: 225M Domestic, 200M Overseas = 425M Worldwide

Thats seems about right.

[Cmill216]

:pal:

[Hunter Rider]

+ :lmao:

[FlawlessVictory]

^WRONG!!! Your predicitions are off. It will end up like this:

IM: 350M Domestic, 300M Overseas = 650M Worldwide

TIH: 225M Domestic, 200M Overseas = 425M Worldwide

Thats seems about right.

Nah, you're way off. It will end up like this:

IM: 750M Domestic...Opening weekend, 2.3B final Domestic, 1.8B Overseas=

4.1B Worldwide


I might be slightly off though. Not sure about TIH, need to see some spots first.

[Mr. Socko]

Nah, you're way off. It will end up like this:

IM: 750M Domestic...Opening weekend, 2.3B final Domestic, 1.8B Overseas=

4.1B Worldwide


I might be slightly off though. Not sure about TIH, need to see some spots first.


I expected Explode's numbers to be closer to this :lmao:

[Carp Man]

Nothing like comedy relief. :woot:

[Juha]

Hah! I was just eye-balling this finnish movie forum and some fool "predicted" that Iron Man is going to be a financial let-down and that it will only make like $80 million. I had to educate the dumb f***. I mean he obviously had no idea what the hell he was talking about. The guy had like a 20,000 post count but I don't think that he even realizes the power of the May 2nd opening day. That alone will bring Iron Man bundles of dinero. Damn!

[Advanced Dark]

^WRONG!!! Your predicitions are off. It will end up like this:

IM: 350M Domestic, 300M Overseas = 650M Worldwide

TIH: 225M Domestic, 200M Overseas = 425M Worldwide

Thats seems about right.

Dude if that happened with Iron Man I would buy a drink for everyone on this message board who's over 21. I don't think IM will make 250 domestic let alone 350 domestic. The #'s just don't add up but hell I could be wrong I guess. I'm at about 230 max until the competition starts eroding market share.

[Excel]

Hell, Iron Man isnt even assured 150 million. :applaud :applaud

[kedrell]

^Oh, I'd say it is.

[explode7]

What are you all laughing about? I say 650M WW seems about right. Similar to POTC1 so the IM sequel will probably make around POTC2 and third IM movie probably around POTC3.

[Advanced Dark]

650WW? I think that would be insane.

I'm guessing:

230 domestic
275 international

[He-Man]

D'oh selected 90 to 100 mil by mistake. I think it'll be 50-60 mil opening weekend.

[explode7]

Who knows the IM Box Office result might end up breaking the Titanic WW total.

[Jick09]

^WRONG!!! Your predicitions are off. It will end up like this:

IM: 350M Domestic, 300M Overseas = 650M WorldwideI don't know why everyone is seeing this like an impossibility.
Transformers wasn't released in May...when the BO is bigger...and it achieved 706,5 millions worldwide. and it was also their first movie.

[explode7]

^People aren't seeing that because they are really stupid.

[theShape]

This thread is filled with a lot of drug users, I can tell. Maybe I shouldn't hang out here...

[Excel]

^Oh, I'd say it is.

Nope. Mission Impossible 3, Van Helsing, Kingdom of Heaven all failed.

They opened on the same weekend as Iron Man, had super bowl spots like Iron Man, were big budget action adventure hero films like Iron Man, MI3 and KOH had better reviews then Iron Man will have, MI3 and VH had more star power than Iron Man does.

MI3 did 48/134, Van Helsing did 52/119, and Kingdom of Heaven did 19/47.
None of them got it, why should Iron Man be any different?

I got a good vibe from the trailer but that super bowl spot is a huge turnoff, the last shot is so incredible fake and bad looking that its an instant turn off to audiences. They need to cut that **** and stick to the "Tony discovering suit powers" and flying scenes, or scenes at night, and theyre good.

[Jick09]

MI3 did 48/134, Van Helsing did 52/119, and Kingdom of Heaven did 19/47.
None of them got it, why should Iron Man be any different?
because it's a superhero movie and way more interesting than the others?:oldrazz:

[Advanced Dark]

Nope. Mission Impossible 3, Van Helsing, Kingdom of Heaven all failed.

They opened on the same weekend as Iron Man, had super bowl spots like Iron Man, were big budget action adventure hero films like Iron Man, MI3 and KOH had better reviews then Iron Man will have, MI3 and VH had more star power than Iron Man does.

MI3 did 48/134, Van Helsing did 52/119, and Kingdom of Heaven did 19/47.
None of them got it, why should Iron Man be any different?

I got a good vibe from the trailer but that super bowl spot is a huge turnoff, the last shot is so incredible fake and bad looking that its an instant turn off to audiences. They need to cut that **** and stick to the "Tony discovering suit powers" and flying scenes, or scenes at night, and theyre good.

MI3 while great was suffering from alot of negative press around Tom Cruise. Van Helsing was garbage, and Kingdome of Heaven was not something that interested the same size of audience that would be interested in a big budget comic book film from Marvel. In fact every big budget Summer Marvel feature has had larger opening weekends than the 3 mentioned above and I'd say Iron Man is of much greater scope and quality than most. You can pick apart a super bowl tv spot all day long but most people dont' analyze commercials like you or others here. They get it. They understand what the f/x is trying to portray and damn if it didn't look awesome to me. Iron Man will appeal to fans of James Bond, Batman, Robocop, Transformers,etc...And the cast they got for this type of film is amazing. Marvel's pulling out aces in casting of their first two films.

[Excel]

MI3 while great was suffering from alot of negative press around Tom Cruise. Van Helsing was garbage, and Kingdome of Heaven was not something that interested the same size of audience that would be interested in a big budget comic book film from Marvel.

MI3 suffered from horrible wom from the 2nd as well as too long of a lay off between films. Van Helsings reviews didnt effetc its opening weekend.

In fact every big budget Summer Marvel feature has had larger opening weekends than the 3 mentioned above and I'd say Iron Man is of much greater scope and quality than most.

You fail to mention every big budget Summer Marvel feature has been about heros way more famous and popular than Iron Man. The character has scope, wether the film does or not we dont know. Fantastic Four looked a huge massive film but in the end it was the opposite.

You can pick apart a super bowl tv spot all day long but most people dont' analyze commercials like you or others here. They get it. They understand what the f/x is trying to portray and damn if it didn't look awesome to me. Iron Man will appeal to fans of James Bond, Batman, Robocop, Transformers,etc...And the cast they got for this type of film is amazing. Marvel's pulling out aces in casting of their first two films

Its hard to describe the average movie goers reaction to the Iron Man spot to someone like you. It isnt that they it lokoed bad per say, they just werent interested. The name IRON MAN doesnt garner instant buzz, people wont recognize robert down jr. though they will recognize Paltrow. For Iron Man to gain hype the footage itself has to do it and youll know if it does, and if there are people-in this case a lot of people on this board or the internet-saying it looked fake/bad, than it didnt sell itself on the public. Maybe to you as the fan, but if its having trouble being sold amongst film buff's, its not going to sell to the average moviegoer.

The matirels there, it was just a poorly edited spot. If somebody could get me a link to the spot and trailer I could make a better one using freakin windows movie maker, hell I could make a kick ass one. The film has the style and money shots, I dont know why the hell edited it so poorly.

[Advanced Dark]

You fail to mention every big budget Summer Marvel feature has been about heros way more famous and popular than Iron Man.


Famous to whom? Comic book fans? The average moviegoer probably knew very little about Fantastic Four or even X-Men when their first films were released. Of course amongst comic book fans it's another story but we comprise a minute % of the total box office receipts. Hell even Ghost Rider in February had a huge opening weekend. In fact I'd say Batman is more well known and more popular than Fantastic Four and Ghost Rider yet look at the opening weekends of Batman Begins compared to FF, FF2, Ghost Rider, X-Men, Hulk, and hell even Daredevil. Popularity even across the board outside of the fans doesn't matter if the movie franchise is fresh and brings something new to the table like Iron Man.

[Carp Man]

Dude if that happened with Iron Man I would buy a drink for everyone on this message board who's over 21. I don't think IM will make 250 domestic let alone 350 domestic. The #'s just don't add up but hell I could be wrong I guess. I'm at about 230 max until the competition starts eroding market share.

Well judging by most of the posts , that takes care of you and me. I guess we drink alone. :oldrazz:

[Juha]

Nah. They have three more months to promote this thing and there's a lot of positive buzz around the movie already. By the end of April, even the most casual movie goer is going to know what's the name of the game.
Big names, big action, big special effects and funny comedy. People will come and a $60-70 million opening weekend is a given. Even $80 million sounds pretty realistic to me.

Iron Man IS going to put movies like MI3 and Van Helsing in their place. IM has more good things going for it than those two reasonably crappy behemoths had combined.

[Advanced Dark]

Well judging by most of the posts , that takes care of you and me. I guess we drink alone. :oldrazz:

Bottom's up. :)

[Figs]

Well judging by most of the posts , that takes care of you and me. I guess we drink alone. :oldrazz:


:csad:

[Diablo101]

That SB spot was a bit subpar in most people's idea. Not what Marvel was hoping for BUT....Hulk also had a subpar SB spot and it still did big on OW (though a bit lower than expected, but still big).

As long as the final marketing looks better, I'm still confident in this being a solid summer start. But I'm starting to doubt that it does more than the first F4

OW: 55m
Total: 150m

[Advanced Dark]

That SB spot was a bit subpar in most people's idea. Not what Marvel was hoping for BUT....Hulk also had a subpar SB spot and it still did big on OW (though a bit lower than expected, but still big).

As long as the final marketing looks better, I'm still confident in this being a solid summer start. But I'm starting to doubt that it does more than the first F4

OW: 55m
Total: 150m

Really? Is this based on your research? LOL The polls suggest otherwise with most people rating it high on the Iron Man boards and on the front page here, and the ESPN polls.

[rayhiggins]

Strangely, I thought this was a thread about how Tony copes with sweating in the armour...

[FaT_tONle]

650WW? I think that would be insane.

I'm guessing:

230 domestic
275 international

275 international? Your fooling yourself... this film can't make more overseas than it will here... this isn't a recognizable charater we are talking about here. Not even BB made more WW... SR's WW totals barely eclipsed the domestic... and 230 U.S is a bit too much. This isn't going to appeal to the kids like a Tranformers would... which was obviously geared to a 9-12 audience... IM looks like its geared to the 11-12 category youngest... parents won't in a rush to take the whole family... rather it will be "MOM... DAD... give me ten bucks I am going to the movies..." This movie won't bring in the whole families. And certainly there are no Box office draws in this cast... I'd be damn suprised if it gets to 200... would have to be a darn good movie...

[theShape]

In fact every big budget Summer Marvel feature has had larger opening weekends than the 3 mentioned above and I'd say Iron Man is of much greater scope and quality than most.

Greater quality than most? Have you seen the film already?

Sure, Iron Man looks good. Some of the visuals are pretty exciting so far and it's got a great cast. But what have we seen so far? Robert Downey Jr. builds a big suit...then he slims it down to a cooler one...then he flys around and blows things up...all set to rock music. Nothing too impressive so far.

You know, Superman Returns looked good. The trailer's were really promising, especially the first teaser. It had great visuals in the previews and a pretty high-rate cast, but look at the bore-fest that turned out to be. It barely made it's money back, and that was ****ing Superman, who's a part of the Holy Trinity of superheroes - Superman, Batman, Spider-man. Iron Man is intriguing, but it won't bring in the masses like Transformers did.

[Advanced Dark]

Greater quality than most? Have you seen the film already?



I've seen enough footage, the actors have already proven themselves, the budget is there, and the director was given the freedom he wanted to make the film he wanted. That wasn't the case with the first X-Men, Fantastic Four, Daredevil, etc...

[Carp Man]

:csad:

J/K there. :woot:

[Carp Man]

IM is no TF's. It's no where near as popular. (TF's was more popular than I thought). So let's not compair the boxoffice of TF's to IM. I do think TF's will help IM, in that the public has been introduced to robots, but let's remember, IM is a man in a suit. Not like TF's where they are souless pieces of metel. That I think will be a big difference. Here is a superhero charactor that is different. IM does not get his powers through radiation, being bitten by a radioactive spider, or thru the power of a yellow sun. Nor is he an athletic superhero like Batman. This is a totaly different kind of superhero. IM gets his powers thru technology, controled by the power of his mind. A totaly new concept. I think it will resonate with the movie going public. Also there is name reconition throughout the cast. Another plus.

The part of the trailer I liked the most is when Stark says:

"My dad always said, the best weapon is the one that never has to be fired. I say the best weapon is the one you only have to fire once. That's how America does it. That's how dad did it, and it's worked pretty well so far." Then he raises his glass and says: "To peace."

[FaT_tONle]

Which is why the movie can make a good 350 ^^^??? That's the realistic goal we and Marvel included should be setting... 400 is being too optmistic. But within the 350-400 mark would be beyond just decent... that's pretty darn good if you ask me... though it will still be a disappointment for me personally if its under 200 dom and doesn't eclipse 400ww.

[YJ1]

Well judging by most of the posts , that takes care of you and me. I guess we drink alone. :oldrazz:

Not so fast! Keep the bar open because the second round will be on me.

Your fooling yourself... this film can't make more overseas than it will here... this isn't a recognizable charater we are talking about here. Not even BB made more WW...

But within the 350-400 mark would be beyond just decent...that's pretty darn good if you ask me... though it will still be a disappointment for me personally if its under 200 dom and doesn't eclipse 400ww.

Fantastic Four made more overseas then it did domestic. It's all about marketing. A unique,fresh and cool looking character beats preconceived notions most of the time. People knew what Batman was about. They have no idea what Iron Man is about and that's a good thing.

I think Marvel will be thrilled when Iron Man meets and then exceeds FF1's numbers. 350 million or more and that's a success.

[Carp Man]

Fantastic Four made more overseas then it did domestic. It's all about marketing. A unique,fresh and cool looking character beats preconceived notions most of the time. People knew what Batman was about. They have no idea what Iron Man is about and that's a good thing.

Albsolutly dead on. And I feel that's what they have to hit on. It's uniqueness. Here is a superhero that is different than any superhero, or superheros you have seen before. The trailer has brought that out. We see Stark creating the suit, and robots, and robot limbs that are comming to past today. Now they even have created a prototype of a robot that you can marry and have sex with. :wow: Sex with a robot ? I've seen the prototype and dame it looks like a real woman. There I go mind in the gutter again. :woot:. The point is robotics is a big deal today, and IM fits right in with the technology of today. IM was way ahead of its time. 40 years ahead. And Marvel and Stan will reap the benifits of that looking ahead to the future.

[Carp Man]

http://gizmodo.com/assets/resources/2007/10/AnothSexBotGi.jpghttp://www.electrogeek.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2006/09/actroid-robot.jpg

These both are prototype female robots. They say by 2012 it will be a reality. Sex with a robot will be a reality.

[FaT_tONle]

One one the left looks pretty real... they should clone human flesh and put it on them... hopefully judgement day by 2012...

[Cmill216]

http://gizmodo.com/assets/resources/2007/10/AnothSexBotGi.jpg

I'd hit it.

[Carp Man]

I'd hit it.

At least your honest. I would too just to see what it would be like. Think of the possibilities ? You could have her built the way you like. Program her with your same interest your same likes and dislikes. She would never have a headach. Never be too tired. Never complain that she wasn't satisified. If you did not want to talk to her for a month she wouldn't say "you never communicate". Never tell you no. Wait on you hand and foot, and never complain. Do all the housework. :wow: The perfect woman ? Let's think about this for a minute. What are we talking about here ? A planet full of androids ? Shades of the Star Trek episode I Mudd. A planet of androids. Once this can of worms is open, where does it stop ?

[FaT_tONle]

Prospects look good to me^^^... but really... its inevitable anyways. The first step won't be robots though... it will be virtual reality... we'll all be dead by the time we get actual A.I type ***** going on. But there is really going to be no limit, so you're right. And I doubt the government would tightly regulate how advanced companies and researchers strive to be with their developing technology.

[kedrell]

Hahaha, real women will soon find themselves obsolete.:woot:

[Visionary]

What the robotic sex is going on here? :O

[Weadazoid]

clearly the prospect of Robotic sex is far to distracting for a group of individuals who love Iron Man comics

[FaT_tONle]

Hahaha, real women will soon find themselves obsolete.:woot:

Yeah and robotic male escort services will put us out of business too if you ever thought about that... unless plugging a robot does it for you... but who knows... maybe it will in time for all of us...

[Carp Man]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbFFs4DHWys&feature=related

Your future wife ? :wow: This was in 2006.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=091ugdiojEM&feature=related

2005.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ak3coBKBC0&feature=related

This **** is unreal. Wonder why they are all female ?

[Ricky_Tan]

looks like the dc trolls are out in full force

[Carp Man]

looks like the dc trolls are out in full force

Are you caling me a DC troll ? Bite your tonge, and wash your mouth out with soap. That offends me sir. I challange you to a duel. Wet noodles at 40 paces. LOL. I am a true blue, dyed in the wool Marvel backer, and supporter. Down with DC fanboy trolls. May a sick elephant squat in their hottub. :woot:

[Advanced Dark]

Oh c'mon carpy you told me you have Teen Titans bedsheets. ;)

[Carp Man]

Oh c'mon carpy you told me you have Teen Titans bedsheets. ;)

No I believe that was Hunter. I have Thing bedsheets. :oldrazz: I should get some Alba bedsheets. Laying on top of The Invisable Woman every night. :woot: Can you imagine having sex with an invisable woman ? What a strange site that would be. The appearance of humping air LOL. Of cource it could not compair with the visual of someone humping a robot. LOL.

[Mr. Socko]

I think IronMan will make $250 domestic and $230 overseas. Seems about right to me.

[YJ1]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ak3coBKBC0&feature=related

This **** is unreal. Wonder why they are all female ?

So you can program them to talk for you after you're dead, of course.

"Guy killed me with a sword, Mal. How weird is that?"

[Carp Man]

Burp.......................

[DBZ2cool]

Hi i am new here,

Iron Man is my most anticipated movie of may 2008.

[Advanced Dark]

No I believe that was Hunter. I have Thing bedsheets. :oldrazz: I should get some Alba bedsheets. Laying on top of The Invisable Woman every night. :woot: Can you imagine having sex with an invisable woman ? What a strange site that would be. The appearance of humping air LOL. Of cource it could not compair with the visual of someone humping a robot. LOL.

1-800-SEEK-HLP

:woot:

[kedrell]

Hi i am new here,

Iron Man is my most anticipated movie of may 2008.

Welcome to the Hype!:woot:

[Ironfan72]

Hi i am new here,

Iron Man is my most anticipated movie of may 2008.

Hi DBZ2cool, welcome to the hype!, nice to see new people here:im:

[Carp Man]

Hi i am new here,

Iron Man is my most anticipated movie of may 2008.

Welcome to the Hype. Glad to hear it. :yay:

[Carp Man]

1-800-SEEK-HLP

:woot:

Is that the number to robots anonymous ? :woot:

[Advanced Dark]

Go to the main (spoilers) forum here for Iron Man. I posted an awesome article with interviews with Feige and Favreau if you missed it.

[Rocker22]

Box office will be through the roof!

Is that better?

[Excel]

yeah, but is it true as well?

[Advanced Dark]

Opening weekend will be huge. These movies have now adusted to the new marketplace and are now doing things expecting a 2 week window especially wiht May-July being packed every weekend.

[Hunter Rider]

Quit the spamming Carp or next time i wont just delete your silliness.

[Bubonic]

I can't imagine this not being a massive hit, everyone I've talk too, even the non comic fans, are dying to see this.

It's just a really fun looking movie, next fall you might be seeing more kids with Iron Man school bags then Spidey ones... But I doubt it:oldrazz:

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'll be shocked if this movie makes 250mil, shocked. I think still think 185mil tops, and I don't feel comfortable predicting that as tops.

[explode7]

350M domestic, 300M Overseaes = 650M WorldWide. I'm sticking by that.

[theShape]

350M domestic, 300M Overseaes = 650M WorldWide. I'm sticking by that.

High doubtful. Especially the $350 domestic part.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Doubtful? It's impposible.

[theShape]

Doubtful? It's impposible.

Amen. :up:

[Rocker22]

With all the attention it is getting on TV, with the first trailer the SB spot and now the latest trailer, I think it will help it alot.

[theShape]

With all the attention it is getting on TV, with the first trailer the SB spot and now the latest trailer, I think it will help it alot.

Of course it'll help, but those things are also going to help TDK and Indiana Jones when the time comes, not to mention all the other huge movies coming out this year.

[Rocker22]

Of course it'll help, but those things are also going to help TDK and Indiana Jones when the time comes, not to mention all the other huge movies coming out this year.

Yeah but my point is, it has had 2 full trailers on TV as commercials, doubt either of those really will.

[Iron_Stark]

Doubtful? It's impposible.

Nothing is impossible. People on this site were laughing that Transformers would get past 200 million let alone past 300 mil before it was relased.

Now my prediction is it'll make 180-200 mill, but to say 300 mil is impossible is just ignorant.

[WorthyStevens]

It's not impossible, but it's extremely unlikely it'll make $300 million.

[theShape]

Yeah but my point is, it has had 2 full trailers on TV as commercials, doubt either of those really will.

What two full trailers are you speaking of? There was the Superbowl spot on TV, which is a regular 30 second commercial that is common for movies, and now a full trailer with Lost tonight.

Aside from the fact that Iron Man is much closer than TDK (IM comes out in May and TDK in July), it's highly likely that TDK will get plenty of exposure on TV. I'm willing to bet they show that 6 minute prologue, or some sort of extended preview, at some point. The WB did that back in 2005 with Batman Begins.

Big movies like these always make sure they put out enough teasers and previews and exclusive clips for people to see before the films are released.

[Rocker22]

What two full trailers are you speaking of? There was the Superbowl spot on TV, which is a regular 30 second commercial that is common for movies, and now a full trailer with Lost tonight.

Aside from the fact that Iron Man is much closer than TDK (IM comes out in May and TDK in July), it's highly likely that TDK will get plenty of exposure on TV. I'm willing to bet they show that 6 minute prologue, or some sort of extended preview, at some point. The WB did that back in 2005 with Batman Begins.

Big movies like these always make sure they put out enough teasers and previews and exclusive clips for people to see before the films are released.

The first trailer, was shown on multiple channels, for I think more than one day.

[theShape]

The first trailer, was shown on multiple channels, for I think more than one day.

And I'm sure TDK trailer has been show on TV somewhere, on Entertainment Tonight or E! News or something, not to mention that fact that TDK footage was played on every news channel for two weeks straight following the death of Heath Ledger.

[Rocker22]

And I'm sure TDK trailer has been show on TV somewhere, on Entertainment Tonight or E! News or something, not to mention that fact that TDK footage was played on every news channel for two weeks straight following the death of Heath Ledger.

Yeah they showed some it, but not the whole thing.

[theShape]

Yeah they showed some it, but not the whole thing.

Still, if people weren't aware of TDK, they certainly are now after that. And not just fans like us, but EVERYONE that watched CNN or Fox News at the time.

Also, it's February now, and TDK comes out in July. There's plenty more surprises in store as far as marketing goes.

[Rocker22]

Still, if people weren't aware of TDK, they certainly are now after that. And not just fans like us, but EVERYONE that watched CNN or Fox News at the time.

Also, it's February now, and TDK comes out in July. There's plenty more surprises in store as far as marketing goes.


Agreed. Anything can happen.

[FaT_tONle]

TDK marketing will have little to no impact on Iron Man... I mean I guess some people will pencil in TDK as their only comic book film they intend to see over the summer if they weren't big comic book movie junkies... but IM should do extremely well... my only fear is that the marketing won't be geared to the kids enough... the cast is obviously geared to an older audience... that might do this film in as far as Marvel's hopes of hitting the 200 mark are concerned... I don't know what will happen... its gonna be tight though that's all I know... the difference between 190-210 is hanging on a thread IMO...

[Weadazoid]

TDK's box office has as liittle to do with Iron Mans Box office as the HUlk


they are al spread out very nicely, one in early May, the other bmid June and the other mid July

[theShape]

No, IM's box office isn't directly related to TDK's or Hulk's, but to say that IM will beat TDK at the box office seems unrealistic to me.

[FaT_tONle]

Well I don't know who'd say IM will beat out TDK (other than the dudes saying 350 million for IM) but who cares? So many people are making an issue out of this... TDK or IM? IM or TDK? I mean I guess we had the same debate back in 06 with... X-Men or Supes? This whole DC vs Marvel movies is so overhyped its just silly... I mean SR was a failure for the most part... their biggest character... pretty much flopping... WB/DC can't get up from their own feet trying to launch these characters to the big screen... it won't be a competition until DC starts diversifying A LOT more... anyways I want both films to do well... if IM flops we can kiss a sequel and Avengers movie goodbye... and if TDK doesn't break the 400 mark (which it might very well fall short of)... then WB might just say **** it and leave batman with the rest of the team in tights in a JLA franchise permanently.

[theShape]

Well I don't know who'd say IM will beat out TDK (other than the dudes saying 350 million for IM) but who cares? So many people are making an issue out of this... TDK or IM? IM or TDK? I mean I guess we had the same debate back in 06 with... X-Men or Supes? This whole DC vs Marvel movies is so overhyped its just silly... I mean SR was a failure for the most part... their biggest character... pretty much flopping... WB/DC can't get up from their own feet trying to launch these characters to the big screen... it won't be a competition until DC starts diversifying A LOT more... anyways I want both films to do well... if IM flops we can kiss a sequel and Avengers movie goodbye... and if TDK doesn't break the 400 mark (which it might very well fall short of)... then WB might just say **** it and leave batman with the rest of the team in tights in a JLA franchise permanently.

Well, this is the Iron Man Box Office Thread, so it makes sense that we'd discuss IM's competition during the year.

And I'm sure TDK will crush at the BO. If Batman Begins could rake in a little over $200 million domsetically with a villain nobody knew and coming off the heels of Batman and Robin, then imagine what TDK will the Joker in it, one of the most famous villains...ever.

[Visionary]

Wow, you all have huge numbers for both Iron Man and Batman, hope it pans out, not so sure, we'll soon see.

[Ironfan72]

I'm still fuzzy how Iron Man came to compete with TDK, both movies open 2 months apart. Will Iron Man make 350 million domestic, I doubt it, it may make that WW hopefully, if not that's ok, I'm glad to finally get at least 1 Iron Man movie, being a fan all my life, I'm thrilled to death to get this one.

[D4rkShaDoWz]

I can't believe that people thing it will only make 50 million. The movie looks great and the special effects unbelievable and thats what people really care about. Look at SM3. The movie was ehhh but it still made tons of of mulah anyway

[theShape]

I can't believe tht people thing it will only make 50 million. The movie looks great and the SFX are unbelievable and thats what people really care about. Look at SM3. The movie was ehhhbut it still made tons of of mulah anyway

1) That was Spider-man, a character much more famous and established in pop culture and with the general public than Iron Man.

2) It's was the third film in one of the most popular and successful film franchises ever.

[D4rkShaDoWz]

TF was also the first in a series but almost outdid SM3 (I think). The point is that people who don't know Iron Man will see the movie because it looks sick and is enjoyable for anyone.

[theShape]

TF was also the first in a series but almost outdid SM3 (I think). The point is that people who don't know Iron Man will see the movie because it looks sick or that they saw the trailers..

The Transformers are actually a part of another hugely successful franchise that started in the 80's and is still going strong today. It's probably one of the most successful toy lines ever, and had a popular TV show and movie in the 80's.

My point is that, yeah, Iron Man looks cool and has nice special effects (well, they're decent), but he's not that well-known or established with the public. The movie will be a success, but won't do Spider-man numbers.

[Weadazoid]

No, IM's box office isn't directly related to TDK's or Hulk's, but to say that IM will beat TDK at the box office seems unrealistic to me.




I agree....


however I hate this competition aspect of things weather it's coming from one board or the other......fans either bragging in house or out of house


I'm no mod, and I am not trying to be a cowboy, just pointing out the fact that there really is no competition.


And really making bold predicitons or making fun of other peoples bold predicitions is pretty silly Excell has a quote up right now in his sig that I suppose is taunt waiting to see Iron Man make less then that on Opening weekend



fact it none of us know. It could have huge opening weekend but fall short like X men 3, it could have a big opeing weekend and finish with a good 220 to 230.

I agree With what you said my freind successful restart first sequal to that restart with Nolan still at the helm give TDK an dege.




but this time last year I was trying to tell people in the Transformers area that Transfromers had no shot at getting much above 200 mill domestic. Mostly do to a hatred of Bay.....but it was based on a solid history of declineing success for Bay...movies like The Island Bombing ect ect



and then last year we had all those Pirates lovers in here jumping all over anyone in the Spiderman board who said Spiderman would be number 1.


well.... I'm not doin it anymore, I will make my predicitons but ask any fan of Batman Begins I got bad rep for jumping all over BB cause of the less then exspected start....in terms of Box office. The movie was great, dark for sure, but on the same level as 89, perhaps in certain way better because of the newer modern tech...or just simply put a totlay new take.

Iron Man has a very nice date..it's good to be first out of the box with, brand new character good public exposure thus far through marketing, I think it will do great.

[M.O.Steel]

i would pick 70-100.

[theShape]

I agree....


however I hate this competition aspect of things weather it's coming from one board or the other......fans either bragging in house or out of house


I'm no mod, and I am not trying to be a cowboy, just pointing out the fact that there really is no competition.


And really making bold predicitons or making fun of other peoples bold predicitions is pretty silly Excell has a quote up right now in his sig that I suppose is taunt waiting to see Iron Man make less then that on Opening weekend



fact it none of us know. It could have huge opening weekend but fall short like X men 3, it could have a big opeing weekend and finish with a good 220 to 230.

I agree With what you said my freind successful restart first sequal to that restart with Nolan still at the helm give TDK an dege.




but this time last year I was trying to tell people in the Transformers area that Transfromers had no shot at getting much above 200 mill domestic. Mostly do to a hatred of Bay.....but it was based on a solid history of declineing success for Bay...movies like The Island Bombing ect ect



and then last year we had all those Pirates lovers in here jumping all over anyone in the Spiderman board who said Spiderman would be number 1.


well.... I'm not doin it anymore, I will make my predicitons but ask any fan of Batman Begins I got bad rep for jumping all over BB cause of the less then exspected start....in terms of Box office. The movie was great, dark for sure, but on the same level as 89, perhaps in certain way better because of the newer modern tech...or just simply put a totlay new take.

Iron Man has a very nice date..it's good to be first out of the box with, brand new character good public exposure thus far through marketing, I think it will do great.

Interesting post, but as I've said before, this is the Iron Man Box Office thread, where we can make predictions of Iron Man's box office numbers and talk about it's competition throughout the year.

[Weadazoid]

Interesting post, but as I've said before, this is the Iron Man Box Office thread, where we can make predictions of Iron Man's box office numbers and talk about it's competition throughout the year.



is it over the course of the year though...I mean seriously I don't here movies like Cloverfield or 10,000 BC being brought up in reference to any of thease movies


no...this is competition as related to summer releases not over the course of the year... be real.

[Carp Man]

no...this is competition as related to summer releases not over the course of the year... be real.

There is always competition for where a movie of interest ends up for the year domestic, and WW. Iron Man will be in the top 10 in both areas. It is on every top 10 must see movies of the year, some it's in the top 5, behind Indy 4, TDK, and HP. I think many will be as surprised at its performance as I was at the performance of TF's. Anyone who thought TF's would do over $700 million WW, raise your hands ? (keeps hand down) $400 WW would be excelent for this movie, and a great start for Marvel's introduction into producing their own movies. TIH is next.

[FaT_tONle]

Again... not having the Box Office draw will hurt this film... TF had Shia, and skanky Megan Fox for good measure... you don't have that with IM... hey that means its just going to be more serious so I'm happy about that... but that doesn't mean money... BB didn't have the Box Office draw and didn't do as well as some of us would have imagined for such a good film... Spiderman was all character draw... so was X-Men for the most part... SR was just a flop thanks to Singer... Ghost Rider only made money because of Cage... same with Dare Devil (but then again Affleck and Garner are not exactly mega draws as the movie did not meet expectations).... Fantastic Four was an interesting flick... I think it would have done decent numbers had they brought in a better director and replaced the leads with more capable actors... still I don't know if it would have still done 350 like Story's film did... it will just come down to how interested people are in seeing Iron Man... people know this is a more than capable cast... probably the best ever for a comic film behind X-Men... but are people going to be interested with the whole idea. I'd say yes to an extent where it will make a decent profit... though it will fall well short of any of those mega block busters I would think.

[theShape]

is it over the course of the year though...I mean seriously I don't here movies like Cloverfield or 10,000 BC being brought up in reference to any of thease movies


no...this is competition as related to summer releases not over the course of the year... be real.

Well, the spring and summer releases are the tentpole films that usually make more money, so yeah. Either way, it's still a competition.

[explode7]

bump.

What do you guys think the BO figures are going to be now after the trailer?

[FaT_tONle]

Good shot at 220 domestically... GOOD shot at 220...

[explode7]

I'm sticking by my 300M Domestic and 350M International.

[theShape]

180-200 domestic

[Excel]

the potential for a 60 million+ openers there, depends on Aprils advertising goes really. Its going to need a really big tv spot campaign to clear 60 million because nobody knows who iron man is, but if it does itll top 175 million total. Im confident in this flicks legs.

[theShape]

the potential for a 60 million+ openers there, depends on Aprils advertising goes really. Its going to need a really big tv spot campaign to clear 60 million because nobody knows who iron man is, but if it does itll top 175 million total. Im confident in this flicks legs.

Agreed.

[explode7]

^Dude people don't care who Iron Man is. Show them a cool look kickass trailer like this with huge special effects and colorful action and your guaranteed a 100M OW on a weekend like IM's one.

[theShape]

^Dude people don't care who Iron Man is. Show them a cool look kickass trailer like this with huge special effects and colorful action and your guaranteed a 100M OW on a weekend like IM's one.

What? No? :huh:

[YJ1]

I guarantee everyone that it clears $60 million opening weekend, EASILY.

Iron Man being mostly unknown is an advantage. General movie audiences will be more then intrigued after experiencing the trailers and the advertising blitz. The Marvel logo carries a lot of weight and the armor itself will peak curiosity. The more people that see the spots, the more they will instantly be committed to seeing it. I have a feeling that word of mouth will be stellar as well.

[explode7]

^Your're right about the Marvel logo.

[theShape]

I guarantee everyone that it clears $60 million opening weekend, EASILY.

Iron Man being mostly unknown is an advantage. General movie audiences will be more then intrigued after experiencing the trailers and the advertising blitz. The Marvel logo carries a lot of weight and the armor itself will peak curiosity. The more people that see the spots, the more they will instantly be committed to seeing it. I have a feeling that word of mouth will be stellar as well.

I agree for the most part. A $60mil opening is definitely within reach. This is a big film and the marketting will be crazy. However, I want to hold off on the word-of-mouth bit. We haven't seen the film. For all we know, it could get panned by critics and the word of mouth could be bad. We don't know yet.

[Excel]

Yes your right, however that almost always translates to LEGS. People will be interested, but because they dont know what it is they will not run out and see it, they will wait and see if tis good and if it is, which i expect it will be, most who are interested WILL go see it at some point.

I would say 55-58/175-180 area. The sequel will do damn near 250 I think.

[Advanced Dark]

I guarantee everyone that it clears $60 million opening weekend, EASILY.

Iron Man being mostly unknown is an advantage. General movie audiences will be more then intrigued after experiencing the trailers and the advertising blitz. The Marvel logo carries a lot of weight and the armor itself will peak curiosity. The more people that see the spots, the more they will instantly be committed to seeing it. I have a feeling that word of mouth will be stellar as well.

If it still opens on a Friday and I assume it'll have early morning 12:01 AM showings that it'll break 75 million opening weekend...FOR CERTAIN. Could be quite a bit more. I've said tha before and I'm sure someone already has it in their sig. ;) Opening up the Summer, no direct compeition whatsoever. No big releases the week before to dilute it. Anything under 70 would shock me. Over 90 on opening would surprise me in a good way but that's a major stretch. It's not up to X-Men awareness yet but part 2 could have that kind of bang.

[Excel]

I agree for the most part. A $60mil opening is definitely within reach. This is a big film and the marketting will be crazy. However, I want to hold off on the word-of-mouth bit. We haven't seen the film. For all we know, it could get panned by critics and the word of mouth could be bad. We don't know yet.

No, I gotta disagree. History has shown that lesser known characters can really only open so high. Without a MAJOR star like will smith, johnny depp, or somebody, this doesnt have the ability to be a real fluke.

Its a high profile film no doubt with large marketing, but the thing is...people dont know the name. So when april comes and the buzz is the big films coming out...most news and media will be going to indiana, speed racer, narnia, ect. Thats what the name factor gives you, people in the media see "superman movie! everybody will know about it" ect. Buzz usually goes to the name brand. This dilms gonna have to work for everything it gets and the only way itll do is footage. Transformers did it, but I dont think is another transformers. Spiderman was really famous and Xmen came after a very dissappointing summer box office wise and capitolized on lack of superhero films.

Iron Man doesnt have that working in its favor like most sperhero films do and unlike ghostride ror daredevil, this isnt the main attraction of the season. I see it doing really well for the kind of film it is and clearing 55 million opening, but keep expectations in check.

[theShape]

No, I gotta disagree. History has shown that lesser known characters can really only open so high. Without a MAJOR star like will smith, johnny depp, or somebody, this doesnt have the ability to be a real fluke.

Its a high profile film no doubt with large marketing, but the thing is...people dont know the name. So when april comes and the buzz is the big films coming out...most news and media will be going to indiana, speed racer, narnia, ect. Thats what the name factor gives you, people in the media see "superman movie! everybody will know about it" ect. Spiderman was really famous and Xmen came after a very dissappointing summer box office wise and capitolized on lack of superhero films.

Iron Man doesnt have that working in its favor like most sperhero films do and unlike ghostride ror daredevil, this isnt the main attraction of the season. I see it doing really well for the kind of film it is and clearing 55 million opening, but keep expectations in check.

That's true. I was thinking of the success of I Am Legend and how it's possible for IM to get there, but this movie doesn't have a huge star like Will Smith, although it does have a good cast.

[Advanced Dark]

But Iron Man does have major stars....just not major ego's or overblown personalities. It's not like Transformers had any major stars or Jurassic Park. It's the material. I've never gone to see a Will Smith "action" movie because of Will Smith but that's just me. With the exception of MIB.

[Advanced Dark]

That's true. I was thinking of the success of I Am Legend and how it's possible for IM to get there, but this movie doesn't have a huge star like Will Smith, although it does have a good cast.

Doesn't need a huge star. Iron Man is the star. Marvel is the star. The trailer is the star. Opening Summer weekend with no competition is the x-factor.

[Excel]

Will Smith is the biggest draw ever right now, he can sell anything. Transformers is the most recent film that really didnt have much going for it and really broke out opening weekend wise due to its footage, and before that it was 300, 2007 was kind to breakouts there were tons of em...the last one I can remember would have to be Pirates 1. Depp was not famous or a draw at the time but it looked cool tomake big bucks.

People need to realize this is gonna be a hit and do well but dont make the same mistake people made with superman returns and I made with batman begins in thinking before it opens thats gonna make a ton of money, because these kind of films typically dont. The real money lies in the sequel, thats why TDK will probably outgross this by over 100 million domestically, even though this may come close to batman begins domestic take.

[Excel]

But Iron Man does have major stars....just not major ego's or overblown personalities. It's not like Transformers had any major stars or Jurassic Park. It's the material. I've never gone to see a Will Smith "action" movie because of Will Smith but that's just me. With the exception of MIB.

Jurassic Park had Spielberg but more importantly was 15 years ago :whatever:

Iron Man has stars but it does not have DRAWS. Box office wise, all of its stars (downey, paltrow, howard, bridges) are quite poor. Noone is a proven hit maker though Paltrows easily the most recognizable. And as I said, Transformers did do it. That said, I dont think Iron Man. That film really looked impressive to even non fans, this really doesnt. This looks good and all, but the Transformers final trailer was aomngst the best ever.

[theShape]

Doesn't need a huge star. Iron Man is the star. Marvel is the star. The trailer is the star. Opening Summer weekend with no competition is the x-factor.

Iron Man is not that big of a star. He's no Spider-man, or Will Smith, so that logic doesn't make sense.

[theShape]

But Iron Man does have major stars....just not major ego's or overblown personalities. It's not like Transformers had any major stars or Jurassic Park. It's the material. I've never gone to see a Will Smith "action" movie because of Will Smith but that's just me. With the exception of MIB.

The Transformers material was 10x more popular than Iron Man's way before the film was released.

[Excel]

Hate to say it, but Irons Man is no star yet.

He's kinda like Routh before Superman or Dicaprio before Titanic. He has all the makings to be a major star, but he hasnt gotten the public exposure to be one. Like I have said-AFTER THIS FILM he will be a star but it wont show till the sequel opens assuming this doesnt suck.

[explode7]

hmm?

[Excel]

Hmm? Name recognitions the most powerful tool.

Right now, TDK has nothing new and 72 people are viewing it.

Iron Man has a brand new, final trailer...and 50 people are viewing it.

No intention to make a tdk vs. im statement, but tis a great example of how much it really takes for something unknown to get the kind of popularity some here think its gonna get in May.

[theShape]

Hmm? Name recognitions the most powerful tool.

Right now, TDK has nothing new and 72 people are viewing it.

Iron Man has a brand new, final trailer...and 50 people are viewing it.

No intention to make a tdk vs. im statement, but tis a great example of how much it really takes for something unknown to get the kind of popularity some here think its gonna get in May.


Interesting point there. :up:

[explode7]

ok then

[FaT_tONle]

Hmm? Name recognitions the most powerful tool.

Right now, TDK has nothing new and 72 people are viewing it.

Iron Man has a brand new, final trailer...and 50 people are viewing it.

No intention to make a tdk vs. im statement, but tis a great example of how much it really takes for something unknown to get the kind of popularity some here think its gonna get in May.

Thats not a good barometer though... I mean its not like people were posting in the 300 forums... a movie doesn't neccessarily need their message boards filled to be successful... but yeah I agree this film will need a good word of mouth to break the 200 mark. So far Marvel has done a pretty good job with the marketing though... and I think SM3 left a bad taste in people's mouths... they are dying for a good superhero flick considering last year... and pretty much 2006... were duds or disappointing to say the least.

[Excel]

Its just an example. Getting popular in todays day and age as a character on film is very hard.

The point is, TDK still attracts more attention on a day with nothing new than Iron Man does on the day its trailer is released. That is the power of having name recognition. BATMAN compared to IRON MAN.

For films like batman in 89, or xmen in 00 and spidey in 02, it was filling message boards month sin advance, and this aint. Thats how I can tell you its not one of them, because if its not exciting as many fans, it will in no way in hell excite as many regular moviegoers.

Dont get me wrong, im not saying this wont do well, it just wont open nearly as high as people expect here because the overall interest just isnt there for that kind of huge success and if it was we'd know it by now and this place would be packed because the signs of start early and are very esy to pick up, and to be frank tdk has them. Superman Returns and Batman Begins didnt have em, but TDK does.

[FaT_tONle]

Its just an example. Getting popular in todays day and age as a character on film is very hard.

The point is, TDK still attracts more attention on a day with nothing new than Iron Man does on the day its trailer is released. That is the power of having name recognition. BATMAN compared to IRON MAN.

For films like batman in 89, or xmen in 00 and spidey in 02, it was filling message boards month sin advance, and this aint. Thats how I can tell you its not one of them, because if its not exciting as many fans, it will in no way in hell excite as many regular moviegoers.

Dont get me wrong, im not saying this wont do well, it just wont open nearly as high as people expect here because the overall interest just isnt there for that kind of huge success and if it was we'd know it by now and this place would be packed because the signs of start early and are very esy to pick up, and to be frank tdk has them. Superman Returns and Batman Begins didnt have em, but TDK does.

No need to put it in bold... everyone and their mother's know that... we'll just have to wait and see... I mean there are only a couple of people that are putting over the top numbers... but right now most people are setting realistic goals with the 180-220 range... I think this film has a great chance of outgrossing BB... I'd even lean towards that... that will be enough I would think... that's what people should be aiming for.

[Excel]

Its not doing less than Fantastic Four but Ill wait for reviews before we decide itll clear 200 million.

[Advanced Dark]

Hmm? Name recognitions the most powerful tool.

Right now, TDK has nothing new and 72 people are viewing it.

Iron Man has a brand new, final trailer...and 50 people are viewing it.

No intention to make a tdk vs. im statement, but tis a great example of how much it really takes for something unknown to get the kind of popularity some here think its gonna get in May.

You can't take the population of SHH viewing The Dark Knight at one moment and extrapolate it out over the planet to judge interest. LOL Like this place is a good sample of the rest of the World.

[Excel]

Actually, it really is. TDK has more hype with nothing in the real world than Iron Man does with a new trailer just because it has the name Batman on it.

[Iron_Stark]

Actually, it really is. TDK has more hype with nothing in the real world than Iron Man does with a new trailer just because it has the name Batman on it.

OK we get it, TDK is going to make more than Iron Man!

Why must you keep making it a TDK vs Iron Man posts? They're not in direct competition with each other!

Besides noone knows what's going to happen or what will succeed or flop!

Look at your New England Patriots, they got thier asses handed to them by the Giants, noone, not even Giants fans saw that coming. :lmao:

[YJ1]

You can't take the population of SHH viewing The Dark Knight at one moment and extrapolate it out over the planet to judge interest. LOL Like this place is a good sample of the rest of the World.

Exactly. Fanboys are pretty much meaningless to the overall box office. If you saw the Joss Whedon fan sites exploding before the Serenity movie you'd have thought that movie was going to be a monster. I like to think we matter but in the grand scheme of things, we don't.

Actually, it really is. TDK has more hype with nothing in the real world than Iron Man does with a new trailer just because it has the name Batman on it.

And a LOT of average people don't care about the quality of Batman Begins. They hear Batman and they think...

http://www.maj.com/gallery/Osenda/Signitures/batman_vs_shark.gif

or Batman & Robin.
Its not doing less than Fantastic Four but Ill wait for reviews before we decide itll clear 200 million.

Then what's the debate? If IM beats FF then Marvel will be extremely happy and sequels will flow.

[theShape]

Well, I wouldn't base any judgements off the Hypester's habits. We're all fans of this stuff, and truth be told, Batman is probably more popular.

But this isn't about which movie will be better. Fans of each series can hope that their movie turns out better than the other. Personally, I hope they both turn out great. However, this thread is about Iron Man Box Office, and we have to be realistic.

I'm confident that TDK will open big and have great legs. Batman Begins came out in 2005 with a weak marketing campaign. WB didn't want to throw it in people's faces after Batman & Robin, which was a huge failure, financially and critically. They let people find the movie on it's own. It didn't open big, but had great legs and raked in over $200 million domestical.

Now, with TDK, people have seen Batman Begins. It was a critical and financial success, and it's highly anticipated. The anticipation has been building for three years. It's not like BB came out a year ago. Also, this marketing campaign is MUCH better than BB's was, because WB is confident in this franchise now. And on top of all that....there's the Joker. BB was a big success, and it had a villain no one even knew. Now, TDK has one of the most famous and recognizable villains ever (#1 in the world of comics), who will be a huge draw for kids and fans alike.

Iron Man has a lot going for it too. The marketing has been spot on and the film's looking good, plus it looks to be family friendly and funny, but the fact remains that it probably won't beat out TDK. Let's not forget TDK has a summer spot, which will help.

[YJ1]

Batman Begins came out in 2005 with a weak marketing campaign. WB didn't want to throw it in people's faces after Batman & Robin, which was a huge failure, financially and critically. They let people find the movie on it's own.

It may have turned out weak but not for lack of trying. The WB spent a then RECORD on Batman Begins' advertising, in excess of $100 million. I remember reading how FF made more money for Fox then BB did for WB because the advertising expenses were so high. I wonder how that will play out this time around? I'm sure every studio has learned from BB's mistake, including Paramount/Marvel.

In any event, I've said the same thing myself, I hope ALL three of the big boys make a ton of money and generate sequels. Iron Man, Hulk AND Batman.

[FaT_tONle]

I'm worried about the Hulk... sort of sandwich film... hope it doesn't get overlooked... and the director certainly doesn't impress me... wasn't keen on Transporters... as far was what makes more... TDK or IM... I couldn't give two *****s about that... as long as IM gets a sequel... as far as TDK I don't know if a sequel will be needed so we'll have to see. Definitely wouldn't do it without Nolan.

[kedrell]

I'm not too worried about the Hulk. He HAS undeniable name recognition. TIH doesn't need a 1/2 year long or more ad blitz. Iron Man did since he's much less known. A couple of months before the movie opens will be enough, IMO. Plus the Iron Man movie acts as a kind of marketing tool as well for the Hulk due to the crossover. Just about everyone who sees Iron Man and likes it will be there to watch TIH as well. As long as they put of a kick ass trailer in March that shows complete and finished CGI along with great action and drama then people will start to understand that TIH has nothing to do with Ang's Hulk or the bad taste it left in many people's mouths.

[Iron_Stark]

Exactly. Fanboys are pretty much meaningless to the overall box office. If you saw the Joss Whedon fan sites exploding before the Serenity movie you'd have thought that movie was going to be a monster. I like to think we matter but in the grand scheme of things, we don't.

Thank God Batman fans aren't like Serenity fans, those fans were just... wow

[Ironfan72]

We get it already, you Batman fans have bludgend us Iron Man fans enough over the head about how much more popular Batman is over Iron Man, we get it.
Now, if you want to get into a more popular at a moment fest, when I was on last night Iron man had over a 100 people to Batmans 50 or so, so don't tell me, that Iron man doesn't have alot of interest by the hypsters and I have no doubt that when ever TDK finally gets a new trailer there will 100's of people there.
At the end of the who really cares all that much, neither film will win a Academy award for best picture or best actor, etc, everyone can agree that both films look great and will generate alot of money for both studios.
I don't know when this turned into mine is bigger than yours, but it needs to stop, because at the end of the day, there comic movies that will not change the world, just entertain us and that's all.

[Figs]

We get it already, you Batman fans have bludgend us Iron Man fans enough over the head about how much more popular Batman is over Iron Man, we get it.
Now, if you want to get into a more popular at a moment fest, when I was on last night Iron man had over a 100 people to Batmans 50 or so, so don't tell me, that Iron man doesn't have alot of interest by the hypsters and I have no doubt that when ever TDK finally gets a new trailer there will 100's of people there.
At the end of the who really cares all that much, neither film will win a Academy award for best picture or best actor, etc, everyone can agree that both films look great and will generate alot of money for both studios.
I don't know when this turned into mine is bigger than yours, but it needs to stop, because at the end of the day, there comic movies that will not change the world, just entertain us and that's all.


*claps hands*

I am excited to see both, I also don't get why it always has to turn into a pissing contest.

While I don't think Iron Man will make as much as TDK at the BO I do think it will do damn good. This new trailer with more flying scenes and action overall will get the GA's asses in the seats this May.

[FaT_tONle]

Can't say I blame them... I was sort of in their camp and made the same issues back in 06 with X-Men 3 and SR... its the classic Marvel vs DC matchup... the debate will be here to stay for good... just have to deal with it

[terry78]

They will be marketing this movie quite a bit come the middle of March and April, especially to young boys. Video games, food tie-ins, clothing/backpacks, etc. I sense you won't be able to walk into a store and not see an Iron Man based ad. They do want this to be the next Spider-Man to an extent.

[Excel]

OK we get it, TDK is going to make more than Iron Man!

Why must you keep making it a TDK vs Iron Man posts? They're not in direct competition with each other!

Im not. People here continue to say Iron Man will be opening over 80 million, totaling over 250 million, ect. which is where TDK is headed. This film aint.

Look at your New England Patriots, they got thier asses handed to them by the Giants, noone, not even Giants fans saw that coming. :lmao:


Shut it *****!

:cmad: :cmad:

Sox start tonight :up: :up:

[Advanced Dark]

Im not. People here continue to say Iron Man will be opening over 80 million, totaling over 250 million, ect. which is where TDK is headed. This film aint.



Shut it *****!

:cmad: :cmad:

Sox start tonight :up: :up:

Big budget Marvel films have consitently had heavily front loaded opening weekends...even the mediocre ones like Fantastic Four. Iron Man is on a much higher level than Fantastic Four in every aspect and the release date is key. The Dark Knight 'should' make more money like you said around 250million overall perhaps a bit more. However even though I think Iron Man will make less overall thanks to major competition in week 2-4...I think it will have a bigger opening. Keep my quote in your sig.

[kedrell]

I've said it before and I'll say it again, it'll open in the 65-75M range, and I'm tending more to the latter end of the spectrum.

[theShape]

It may have turned out weak but not for lack of trying. The WB spent a then RECORD on Batman Begins' advertising, in excess of $100 million. I remember reading how FF made more money for Fox then BB did for WB because the advertising expenses were so high. I wonder how that will play out this time around? I'm sure every studio has learned from BB's mistake, including Paramount/Marvel.

In any event, I've said the same thing myself, I hope ALL three of the big boys make a ton of money and generate sequels. Iron Man, Hulk AND Batman.

I wish them all success as well, although I feel like The Hulk's not going to be a shash like the other two.


OK we get it, TDK is going to make more than Iron Man!

Why must you keep making it a TDK vs Iron Man posts? They're not in direct competition with each other!



Well, this is the box office thread for IM, and these are two of the more high profile films to be released in 2008, and they are from different studios, so the comparisons are inevitable.

[Excel]

Big budget Marvel films have consitently had heavily front loaded opening weekends...even the mediocre ones like Fantastic Four. Iron Man is on a much higher level than Fantastic Four in every aspect and the release date is key. The Dark Knight 'should' make more money like you said around 250 million overall perhaps a bit more. However even though I think Iron Man will make less overall thanks to major competition in week 2-4...I think it will have a bigger opening. Keep my quote in your sig.

Fantastic Four are a lot more well known than Iron Man. Iron Man has a better release date but as of this point, FF had a better marketing plan. Iron Man is not in FF's league, its much more comparable to Ghost Rider r Daredevil. The fact that its higher profile and opens in May makes me think itll open in the high 50's or low 60's at most instead of mid forties like those films. And I dont think the competition will matter. The films footage is good enough to get a lot of people interested and if the films any good itll translate that interest into good legs. HOWEVER that interest wont be translated into a big opening weekend because again, nobody knows the name so there is no sense to rush out see it, they will wait and see if the word of mouth is any good.

It may have turned out weak but not for lack of trying. The WB spent a then RECORD on Batman Begins' advertising, in excess of $100 million. I remember reading how FF made more money for Fox then BB did for WB because the advertising expenses were so high. I wonder how that will play out this time around? I'm sure every studio has learned from BB's mistake, including Paramount/Marvel.

No it didn't. Batman Begins domestic marketing budget was $44,400,000 compared to Fantastic Four's $35,200,000 as Nielson reported both. Worldwide they were both approximately $80,000,000. From only theatrical release, FF did make Fox a bigger profit than Batman made W.B. because Fox only spent $87,500,000 making Fantasic Four. W.B. spent $150,000,000 making Batman. Batman still ended winning in profits thanks its huge rentals and dvd sales.

But thats where Fox being cheap bit them in the ass. For that film they made nice profits, but because the film was made so cheap, the cast for the most part sucked, the crew sucked, and the script sucked so inevitbly, THE FILM SUCKED. So they up the budget to $140 million for the sequel, thinking bigger=better but whoops, it's sequel comes out and is a huge dud because nobody sees it because they remembered the brand name FANTASTIC FOUR from the first film and remember IT SUCKED and FF2 erases just about any profits the first made.

The way Fox treated the FF franchise is a textbook example of how NOT to do it. The right way, which wb did with Batman, is to take time and SPEND for quality. It does not always translate success (Hulk) but it almost always translate to at the very least, critical success (Superman returns).

Batmn Begins on the other was very well made, albeit at a hefty price, and it will translate to HUGE profits for the next one. Paramount obviously treated Iron Man more like WB treated Batman then the way Fox did FF because again, its talented cast arent cheap or easy to get, and its obviouls from the trailers this has much highe rproduction values than FF did.

In any event, I've said the same thing myself, I hope ALL three of the big boys make a ton of money and generate sequels. Iron Man, Hulk AND Batman.

Word :up:

[Advanced Dark]

FF & Iron Man are pretty much on a level playing field when it comes to a Worldwide audience. Once again you mistake the awareness on the Superhero message boards as being one with the Universe. We couldn't be more out of touch with the general audience bud. However like you said...I want to see a great Iron man and Dark Knight film...oh and Hulk too.

[Weadazoid]

Excell (unless I am mistaken) you were also sure that the bad press the X3 film had recieved was public knowledge and would seriously hurt the film esspecialy pitted against the monstrous Da Vinchi Code. In year when the box office was hurting in many ways X3 jumped out to huge start then flaltered a bit but still finished well above where I think you were predicting.



There are plenty o hard core TDK people sugesting the movie has a good shot at being number 1 and may get into the 300 + million domestic range.



It's all just speculation anyway. If Both lmovies perform to peaks of what they can it is certainly a posibility IM comes in at 250 and TDK comes in at 300...possible not likely.

Just as no one could have predicted the huge opening weekend X3 was going to have....even though everyone knew Ratner was untested and the production had so many problems......:shock it should have made everyone stay away right?

[Advanced Dark]

Get used to steep drop off's on Summer films now with the extreme competition. Not sure how Speed will hurt Iron Man yet, but I can tell you Speed will be hurt tremendously in week 3 and 4 and Iron Man will at least have the opening week alone.

[Hunter Rider]

It's hard to gauge BO these days despite all the would be experts on here, I think Iron Man is capable of getting to $200M domestic, however beyond that it's hard to tell.

I do however think it's gonna be a very good movie and the most accessible comic book film of the year, It's my top pick to be the surprise hit that makes more than anyone had thought it was capable of*


*Does not include AD b/c he is expecting massive numbers already. :woot:

[Advanced Dark]

I'm not sure how massive 75-85 million really is anymore. It's not the same marketplace as it was when Hulk pulled in 62 million with a little known Eric Bana and bad word of mouth. There are so many more screens and megaplexes & early morning showings that pretty much everyone who wants to see the movie on opening weekend will. What lightens the 2nd week drop off is repeat showings. Movies had much greater legs years ago because there was less competition and often shows were sold out and the films were not on multiple screens. Now you go to a megaplex and you'll see the movie you want to see on 5 or 6 separate screens during peak hours. The good thing about this for the studio is it doesn't allow bad word of mouth to spread if a film isn't that great like FF or Ghost Rider. You're gonna see 60-70% drops in week 2 on a regular basis. Comic book movies however (if good) tend to be the kind of films people see on the big screen more than once.

[Excel]

FF & Iron Man are pretty much on a level playing field when it comes to a Worldwide audience. Once again you mistake the awareness on the Superhero message boards as being one with the Universe. We couldn't be more out of touch with the general audience bud. However like you said...I want to see a great Iron man and Dark Knight film...oh and Hulk too.

The thing is, you guys, or the people who predict box office on SHH only do it for comic book films. I do it for EVERY movie on sites dedicating to just that...try the worldofkj.com. Theshape, diablo101 know it. I am actually very in touch with general audience and those who predict with me-not trying to brag or sound like a ***** but its honestly true-will tell you I have a general feel for calling big breakouts (or bombs) early. Called Transformers, American Gangster, 300, I Am Legend, ect. way in advance. I predicted 250 million for I am Legend back in May, called a 45 million for AG 3 months ahead, said Transformers would top Pirates 3 in Feb 07 which at the time made me a joke. Declared there was no way 300 opened under 50 million its opening weekend while despite tracking pointing at mid to high 30's. I'm good at sensing break outs early.

Thing is as a person, Im the opposite of most here. I am not a geek or anything close to it in real life, I am very mainstream. I think thats why I am able to view these films with a non-bias unlike a lot of people who will be like "all I can is batman beats iron man" or vice versa. Back in the day circa 2005 I was just like that but Ive come a long way. That is why when you say i am not in touch with general audiences it couldnt be more wrong.

Excell (unless I am mistaken) you were also sure that the bad press the X3 film had recieved was public knowledge and would seriously hurt the film esspecialy pitted against the monstrous Da Vinchi Code. In year when the box office was hurting in many ways X3 jumped out to huge start then flaltered a bit but still finished well above where I think you were predicting.

No, I predicted at the time a 94 million opening weekend (it did 103) and 110 4 day (it did 120). That is not off by a lot. I did also say it would get bad word of mouth that was an understatement. Its multiplier was a 2.2 :wow:

There are plenty o hard core TDK people sugesting the movie has a good shot at being number 1 and may get into the 300 + million domestic range.

Thats because of how box office works. For sequels like TDK it really only take AWARENESS-people knowing the films out/coming-to garner buzz, hype, interest. And aside from I am Legend, Simpsons and next week 10,00 BC all being bit hits ahving trailers attatched to it...Heath Ledgers death has given it a lot attention. Its horrible I know, but its still true.

It's all just speculation anyway. If Both lmovies perform to peaks of what they can it is certainly a posibility IM comes in at 250 and TDK comes in at 300...possible not likely.

Its really not. Iron Man has really no shot at 250 million, it has too many big films after it.

Just as no one could have predicted the huge opening weekend X3 was going to have....even though everyone knew Ratner was untested and the production had so many problems......:shock it should have made everyone stay away right?

Heh, no. All the production problems had nothing to do with how it opened, thats 50% marketing and 50% x1 and X2 word of mouth. The reason people talked about the production problems was because that signaled the film itself wouldnt be good, therefore its word of mouth would not be good, and therefore its legs wouldnt be good. And they werent, a 2.2 is beyond horrible.

[Excel]

I'm not sure how massive 75-85 million really is anymore. It's not the same marketplace as it was when Hulk pulled in 62 million with a little known Eric Bana and bad word of mouth. There are so many more screens and megaplexes & early morning showings that pretty much everyone who wants to see the movie on opening weekend will. What lightens the 2nd week drop off is repeat showings. Movies had much greater legs years ago because there was less competition and often shows were sold out and the films were not on multiple screens. Now you go to a megaplex and you'll see the movie you want to see on 5 or 6 separate screens during peak hours. The good thing about this for the studio is it doesn't allow bad word of mouth to spread if a film isn't that great like FF or Ghost Rider. You're gonna see 60-70% drops in week 2 on a regular basis. Comic book movies however (if good) tend to be the kind of films people see on the big screen more than once.

75-85 is still big but its not huge. Hulk 62 in 2003 inflates to roughly 73-75 now, but word of mouth hit initially. It made 24 million Friday which roughly 27-28 now which would point to a weekend closer to 80-82 million for most films but Hulks wom was so horrible it dropped big immeadietly. But i dont think youll start ing 60-70% drops every weekend for a long time.

Even Superman Returns didnt drop 60% depsite ok word of mouth and the most anticipated film ever opened in its 2nd weekend with the exact same audience.

[Advanced Dark]

Superman and Batman begins didn't drop heavy because they didn't open very big. They didn't have the big rush like X3, Hulk, etc...Batman took time to build word of mouth and the less than huge opening weekend was followed by more confidence from the fans. Superman Returns just didn't open big but it was good enough to keep people coming.

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

In all honesty, with the exception of X3, i hope EVERY CB movie does well, because the moment they dont we will stop getting them. Iron Man, Punshier, TDK, Watchmen, TIH, i hope they all do well enough for sequels at least.

[DBZ2cool]

I would like all comic book films to do well regardless of their quality.

Iron Man will do very well no doubt but i still don't see it doing more than 185 million which apparently isn't enough since the budget is 160-165 million. This should have not had a budget more than 130 million but let us see. If all the movies in the month of april flop or do ok business then i can totally see Iron Man exploding on may 2nd and doing way more than expected and eventually grossing 200+ million.

Superhero movies especially the ones from Marvel have had a good track record on 1st week of may. They all did more than expected or broke records.

[FaT_tONle]

This movie realistically needs to crack the 90 million mark opening weekend to have a decent shot at 200... just too many other movies coming up after it... Indiana Jones really kills all legs this may have had otherwise... its all about the huge opening weekend... if you think about it... it will probably need close to 30 million opening day... finishing around 85-90ish for the weekend... that's the only real shot... I think it may need even more than that... the thing with Transformers... that really didn't have competition throughout the summer other than Harry Potter... and if you weren't a Potter fan... you pretty much made Tranformers your last big summer flick.

[Excel]

Hahaha, what? Indiana Jones is 4 weekends after this. Spidey 3 finished with a 2.3 and that was a SEQUEL with horrible word of mouth. This isnt a sequel so it doesnt have the rush out factor AND i expect good word of mouth.

no way iron man does less than 2.7 but also no way it does higher than 3.5, so earn 200 million iron mans needs atleast 57 million which it should be able to do.

this wont open big enough to get flat out killed i.e. i forsee (ballparking numbers)

May 2-4: 62 million

May 5-8: 17.6 million

May 9-11: 33.4 million -46%

May 12-15: 11.9

May 16-18: 20 million -40%

May 19-22: 5.6 (Indiana Jones opens Thursday)

may 23-25: 12.4 -39%

May 26-29: 4.4 (monday is memorial day)

May 29-31: 6

Thats 173.3 million by the end of May, probably totaling 187-190. Thats about where Id predict.

[DBZ2cool]

So excel you are saying that this movie will drop more than 70% after 1st weekend?

You do remember that this is not a sequel so that won't happen. Maybe 60% but no way 70%.

Oh what comes out after Iron Man anyways? Speed Racer. That movie so far has had bad marketing. Aside from the teaser they haven't shown anything. No superbowl spot, no new posters and it releases in 2.5 months. On top of that the reaction to speed racer trailer has been extremely bad or downright horrible.

I think Iron Man is capable of doing another 25-27 million on second weekend after a 63 million opening weekend.

[Excel]

huh?

I said it would drop 46% in its 2nd weekend...

[ultimatefan]

I don´t make predictions on numbers cuz well, I never seem to guess right, but after all the trailers and buzz, I´m much more optimistic about IM than I was when the movie was first announced. I´m a little worried that he isn´t quite the household name that Spider-Man or X-Men are, but then again that didn´t seem to stop Ghost Rider or Blade from being successful. I wouldn´t be surprised if this made more than the first FF - which would be an awesome slap in the face of Fox, BTW...

But let´s not bet big just based on Internet hype, it can be very deceitful. Some movies get a lot of Internet buzz and become big BO hits - 300, Borat, etc. - and some don´t - Snakes On a Plane, Grindhouse, etc.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I just don't see 250mil in this movie's future and I'm having a really hard time seeing 200mil. I'm oftend wrong so it could happen but I don't think so. I expect like most summer movies big opening lame legs. I could see a 75mil opening with bad legs and no 200mil gross.

I've rethought things abit because I forgot that summer movies make most of there cash upfront so I could see 75mil happening now but I'd give it Simpson-ish legs.

[explode7]

People don't listen to Excel's prediction it's usually a big joke.

[Visionary]

70 to 75M would be good, which is what I'm leaning towards. I would hate to see Marvel's first studio movie stumble at the box office.

[explode7]

^I say at least 100M + Opening Weekend and that's no joke.

[DBZ2cool]

People don't listen to Excel's prediction it's usually a big joke.

Apparently someone told me this guy excel works for warner bros.

[explode7]

^Actually I heard he has a job in predicting false BO numbers.

[Excel]

Tracking has this at 100 million :up:.

[kedrell]

100M for what? Total? Opening Weekend? What? And what source please?

[M.O.Steel]

i'm sure its for opening weekend.

[Excel]

Opening weekend. RS, its one of the best around. Studios use it.

[FilmBuff2000]

I may sound like a newb, but what's source is RS?

[Cmill216]

Excel, if people ask you for a source, a two letter acronym really isn't helpful.

[Excel]

It stands for "Reel Source" and is one of the most popular tracking sources for film studios.

[Cmill216]

Is it really that hard to post reelsource.com?

[FilmBuff2000]

For some reason when you search for real source on google, it comes up as "this site may harm your computer," so it's a reliable source?

[YJ1]

Tracking has this at 100 million :up:.

Anywhere close to that number and I'll simply wet myself come Monday morning!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I pray the tracking holds!

[M.O.Steel]

what do they base it on?

again, everyone remember it's just a prediction.

[Excel]

I believe you have to be a member to access their tracking hence why I never go the site, people I know belong there and tell me the tracking. Its based on mass polling, advanced ticket sales online and from theaters, stuff like that. They take their numbers and find films that similar numbers at the same time in the release schedule, and thus you get what they expect it to open to.

For real, yall gonna ***** than next time Ill just leave yall in the dark instead :rolleyes:

For some reason when you search for real source on google, it comes up as "this site may harm your computer," so it's a reliable source?

You misspelled it.

[Ironfan72]

Well, I hope that holds, I'll be interested to see if those numbers hold up the closer the film gets to opening.

[Excel]

To be honest, I would be surprised. Numbers this early largely indicate awareness and not interest, which making tracking TDK look obnoxious because EVERYONE already knows about it now, let alone a month before it opens.

Still I d be very, very surprised at anything under 65 at this point. Somethings going very right if its tracking at 100 million, early or not.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The very early tracking had Superman Returns at like 120mil so I'm going to take this with a grain of salt.

Because of the depressed market and impressive marketing by paramount I believe that it has a great shot at 75mil but I wouldn't be surprised if the apathy of the market hurts the movie and makes it open lower than alot of people on these boards think. I'm just saying that in the game of boxoffice nothing is assured.

Examples: Alot of the predictions for Hulk were 80 to 90 mil opening weekend, it did 62mil. Good number, but not good enough.

Alot of so-called professionals constantly predicted that Superman Returns would be the highest grossing movie of 06 (To be fair I thought that it would make atleast 275mil) but it lost out to Pirates and just about every other film that year. A huge disappointment. My theroy on that was that everyone was ignoring the boring lame ass trailers and only reading the strangely good reviews that were comparing it to far better films.

Batman Begins was also overpredicted. One of the few times I was fairly correct about a movie's boxoffice. I think TDK is being over predicted too but thats another story. It aint doing Spider-Man numbers, far too serious of a movie.

On the other hand both FF films were underpredicted by most experts but in the second one's case, overpredicted by people like myself.

It will be interesting to see what side Iron Man falls on. Seeing reviews from major critics will be interesting too.

[Excel]

The only "professionals" who thought superman returns would beat Pirates worked for w.b. Anyone could tell from the first pic of supes this was NOT the direction they should have gone if being #1 for the year was the goal.

I can tell you for a fact that Iron Man is NOT in the same boat as Superman returns. Superman had a gloomy look that didnt go well with superman and was not a film that was easy to market. Iron Man has proven to be virtually the opposite.

[JackMercy]

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/tracking-iron-man-crazy-talk/

:word:

[I SEE SPIDEY]

http://www.deadlinehollywooddaily.com/tracking-iron-man-crazy-talk/

:word:
Good read. Iron Man has a great chance of disappointing people who are predicting it to open with 85, 95 or 100 million dollars. Not saying that it will but History is not on it's side. It seems like some people would be disappointed if it opened to "only" 60 to 70mil. I think 70mil is a great number for a movie for a lesser known character and non huge stars that bring in the moviegoers. It will more likely than not open with around those numbers. If it's good or entertaining/fairly non-offensive I could see it getting over 200mil now. And yes I am somewhat changing my tune after really crunching the numbers.

And oh yeah, If a 186 million dollar movie opens to 50mil, it's more than likely screwed. Most summer movies legs aren't good.

[Excel]

Good read. Iron Man has a great chance of disappointing people who are predicting it to open with 85, 95 or 100 million dollars. Not saying that it will but History is not on it's side. It seems like some people would be disappointed if it opened to "only" 60 to 70mil. I think 70mil is a great number for a movie for a lesser known character and non huge stars that bring in the moviegoers. It will more likely than not open with around those numbers. If it's good or entertaining/fairly non-offensive I could see it getting over 200mil now. And yes I am somewhat changing my tune after really crunching the numbers.

And oh yeah, If a 186 million dollar movie opens to 50mil, it's more than likely screwed. Most summer movies legs aren't good.

Been saying that for the past 6 months bro. I still cant imagine anything over 80 at best, even with tracking. However this opens sub 60 million, itll get better than expected legs. Interest is high and the word of mouth is good.

[FaT_tONle]

65 would be fine I guess... hopefully they can push that number to 70... round out at around 170-180... not bad at all. I'd take that. With the WW it should be 350 at least.

[M.O.Steel]

what...they tracked superman at 120 mil? lame.

[Weadazoid]

It had 4rth of July Weekend...It had Singer who had proven himself at X2, it had Spacey.......



It also had a clear path that said..no Super Villain..... and some of the people who were planning on seeing it for eye candy...said eh...maybe I'll go Bowling. Pirates opens in a week and Davey Jones is wiked CGI

[YJ1]

Right now Hollywood Stock Exchange has Iron Man priced at $210+, which implies a $75 million opening ($210/2.8)

http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=IRNMN

And they are going to start trading options on the opening at $80 million.

http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=IRNCA

So, the expectations on the opening weekend are gonna be $75 million +

[theShape]

Some of the predictions have been wayyy out there. I wouldn't be at all suprised if this opened with less than $60 million, with the way the box office is today. Iron Man is no Spider-man and has ZERO chance of pulling in an opening gross that is anywhere near Spider-man's.

Iron Man will open well, with $40 to $60 million, and have decent legs, pulling in $150 to $200 million domestically.

[TheVileOne]

I'm sticking with my $60-80 million opening weekend prediction. I think when you have a movie like this and a character that's unproven at the BO, you know its just hard to predict.

I mean everyone knew Spider-man would be big, but sometimes you don't know until it happens. It just depends on the climate.

I think the biggest factor right now is that, I really believe people really want a movie like Iron Man RIGHT NOW.

Audiences have been totally rejecting the deep, heady, heavy intense, policitical dramas lately.

People want feel good stuff right now. They don't want to think about Iraq and all the other crap going on in the world. They want escapist entertainment. And they don't want preachy crap either.

[Ricky_Tan]

Some of the predictions have been wayyy out there. I wouldn't be at all suprised if this opened with less than $60 million, with the way the box office is today. Iron Man is no Spider-man and has ZERO chance of pulling in an opening gross that is anywhere near Spider-man's.

Iron Man will open well, with $40 to $60 million, and have decent legs, pulling in $150 to $200 million domestically.

lol, Iron Man will open bigger than TDK, that i will guarantee.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^ I guarantee (not really because I can't) that that won't happen and everyone who is predicting Iron Man to make 100mil opening weekend will be hugely disappointed.

[FaT_tONle]

Hulk made 62 and that probably was nailed for crappy CGI and a complex story and a long ass run time... Iron Man will beat that no doubt in my mind... I am dying to get back to the movies with all the crap that's been out lately. People will flock to see this film... 65 million easy.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Really? well I disliked Hulk because of the zombiefied, chemistry defecient performances from Bana and Connelly, horrible overacting by an obviously hammered Nick Nolte, and a misguided, out of place jokey performance, by Mathew Ma-clone-nehey extrodinare, Josh Lucas. Also I hated the overused splitscreen, the Hulk dogs, that ridiculous music when Hulk is pogostick jumping in the desert and the whole Obsorbing Dad is the villain thing. Want to know what I hated the most? The Ending. The stagey ridiculously overacted father and son chat (that the millatary for some odd reason decides to let happen) where his father just decides to take over the world and the filmakers attempt to cover up shotty effects eye hurting jelly fish, rock monster and what ever the hell I saw through squinted eyes final battle.

Just speaking for myself.

Back on topic:

[YJ1]

This article...

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/movies/la-et-word17apr17,1,7411629.story

states that "Paramount and Marvel have spent only 30% of their advertising dollars so far." If that's true then they've done the best job EVER. Iron Man will be everywhere and on everyone's mind by the time that other 70% is spent. The Burger King promotions haven't even started yet and I'm pretty sure BK is paying THEM to cross promote.

$80 million opening may be within sight.

[Nightmare]

80 mill opening weekend? Wow, i dont know...

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I don't know either. It could do it, I mean any movie could open to eighty million dollars. The question will be answered soon enough. As I said before the comicbook movie track record isn't exactly pointing to that so...


Gosh I really need to take my ass to bed, it's 1:12am.

[StylishHokie21]

I would say $60-90 million at least. I'd be really surprised if this does lower than Ghost Rider and The Hulk.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I'd be surprised if it goes lower than GhostRider, Hulk, not so much.

[StylishHokie21]

^I'd be surprised if it goes lower than GhostRider, Hulk, not so much.

You do have a point. I found some enjoyment with Hulk. I can't believe some are predicting a $151-160 million gross for the weekend.

[Commodore Schmidlapp]

70-80 million opening weekend

[Mac_Hine]

Just wondering, won't the release of Grand Theft Auto 4 hurt Iron Man's opening a tiny bit?

[Figs]

Just wondering, won't the release of Grand Theft Auto 4 hurt Iron Man's opening a tiny bit?


That's what some people are predicting but I don't think it's going to make much of a dent if any.

I think maybe the first day the fans will play it then realize "Doh! It's still pretty much the same old game but with slightly better graphics and even more vehicles!":oldrazz:

[DBZ2cool]

This article...

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/news/movies/la-et-word17apr17,1,7411629.story

states that "Paramount and Marvel have spent only 30% of their advertising dollars so far." If that's true then they've done the best job EVER. Iron Man will be everywhere and on everyone's mind by the time that other 70% is spent. The Burger King promotions haven't even started yet and I'm pretty sure BK is paying THEM to cross promote.

$80 million opening may be within sight.

They probably mean they have spent 30% of it WORLDWIDE.

[theShape]

lol, Iron Man will open bigger than TDK, that i will guarantee.

http://i157.photobucket.com/albums/t64/Coyoteesharptongue/lex-luthor-wrong1.jpg

[theShape]

I'm sticking with my $60-80 million opening weekend prediction. I think when you have a movie like this and a character that's unproven at the BO, you know its just hard to predict.

I mean everyone knew Spider-man would be big, but sometimes you don't know until it happens. It just depends on the climate.

I think the biggest factor right now is that, I really believe people really want a movie like Iron Man RIGHT NOW.

Audiences have been totally rejecting the deep, heady, heavy intense, policitical dramas lately.

People want feel good stuff right now. They don't want to think about Iraq and all the other crap going on in the world. They want escapist entertainment. And they don't want preachy crap either.

I agree, the movie will be big, but $80 million? Not gonna happen. Let's be realistic here...

[Figs]

I agree, the movie will be big, but $80 million? Not gonna happen. Let's be realistic here...


Why is that so unrealistic??

Movies almost always have a drop off the second weekend and more after that. So basically your saying it won't get $80 million opening weekend, so say it gets $60 million instead and then like a lot of films has a 50% drop the next weekend that's only $90 million it's first two weeks? Considering how more films open up after that which will take away even more from it, I don't see it.

I think IM is going to make roughly $150-$200 mill domestic.

[theShape]

Why is that so unrealistic??

Movies almost always have a drop off the second weekend and more after that. So basically your saying it won't get $80 million opening weekend, so say it gets $60 million instead and then like a lot of films has a 50% drop the next weekend that's only $90 million it's first two weeks? Considering how more films open up after that I don't see it.

I think IM is going to make roughly $150-$200 mill domestic.

I, too, see a $150-200 million domestic gross for Iron Man (leaning more towards that 150 mark). However, I really don't see the opening weekend gross being as huge as everyone is predicting here. I mean...$80 million?

This is no Spider-man, who had a movie that was 40 years in the making and EXTREMELY anticipated. Not to mention the fact that Spider-man is a pop culture icon, while Iron Man is a nobody to to general public, just like Daredevil and Ghost Rider. Sure, this movie actually looks good compared to those, but the fact remains that he simply does not have the power as a character to open a movie with that big of a gross.

Think of all the movies you can imagine that have the biggest known opening weekend records. Most are either sequels or films that have been headlined by a bankable star, a la Will Smith with I Am Legend.

I see Iron Man opening with a hefty amount, and then having good legs to carry it through the rest of May.

[GL's Light]

Hello all. Long time no see. Thought I'd drop back in as we're on the cusp of another summer brimming with big superhero films.

Anyhow, my predictions for Iron Man's box office:

$70-75 million opening weekend.

$175-190 million domestic.

$320-350 million worldwide.

[Cmill216]

GL?! I almost forgot about ya, man. Good to see you back!

And, honestly, I couldn't agree more with that OW estimate.

[TheComicbookKid]

I agree with Gl's estimates. It ain't crossing 200 million.

135 million dollar budget? I thought it was like 180.

[GL's Light]

GL?! I almost forgot about ya, man. Good to see you back!
Thanks. It's good to be back. Is Carp Man still around or has he been banned for life? :hehe:

(I like the new emoticons, by the way)

[I Am The Knight]

I agree with Gl's estimates. It ain't crossing 200 million.

135 million dollar budget? I thought it was like 180.

I think it's 186 million. Not sure :huh:

[GL's Light]

I sure hope the budget is $135-140 million and nowhere near $186 million.

[I Am The Knight]

It looks more expensive than what a 135 million movie could afford. Then again, there is what Transformers achieved...