Box Office Prediction (2006 Version)

[Retroman]

Raymond James Financial (financial service firm) have attempted to predict Ghost Rider's box office gross.

From RAYMONDJAMES.COM:


2005/2006 Assumptions
We understand the variability of Marvel’s model when it comes to Hollywood. As such, we approach out years conservatively and do not model all potential movies in any given year. For 2006, we have explicitly modeled two major releases: X-Men 3 and Ghost Rider. In its latest press release, Marvel has indicated a potential for four additional films in 2006 (Iron Man, Luke Cage, Punisher 2 and Deathlok). Should any of the films be released, this would represent upside to our estimates. We have also included a $5 million advance
payment for Spider-Man 3 in both 2005 and 2006. This is similar to the advances for the first two Spider-Man movies. Our box office estimates for X-Men 3 is $325 million worldwide (X-Men grossed $295 million and X2 grossed $406 million) and $150 million worldwide for Ghost Rider. In 2005, we forecast $300 million worldwide for Fantastic Four.

In addition to two movies in 2006, Marvel will release its first direct to video movie (The Avengers by Lions Gate) and the animated Fantastic Four TV show (26 episodes produced by Antefilms of France). The animated FF TV show is very important, in our opinion. For a movie such as the Hulk, the character had no media support in the year following the release of the movie. As such, sales of licensed consumer product sales fell dramatically. With an animated TV show to keep the Fantastic Four brand in front of consumers, we could anticipate a less dramatic decline in sales. TV content will be a tool to help build consumer productsales of Marvel brands in the future.

Source: http://www.raymondjames.com/pdfs/company/MVL031605c_0646.pdf

[BIGGUN]

hmmm.
interesting read there Retro...
only 150 mil is a low estimate considering that the predicted budget is at least 100 mil. Cage's last flick "National Treasure" did at least 300 mil worldwide....and it had a 100 mil budget as well. that was released under different curcumstances of course...more established director, time of year, ect.
150 mil doesnt even beat Daredevil's worldwide gross (179 mil)....and i know GR has a better chance to make more than DD.
we will see though..

[GLREBORN]

Because Mark Johnson is making it,

IT WILL BE A BOMB.

[Night]

Ok why would X3 make less then X2? And If Ghost Rider only makes 150 worldwide then that is a bomb!

[dk]

Ok why would X3 make less then X2? And If Ghost Rider only makes 150 worldwide then that is a bomb!

If any of these "predictions" are within $50 mil of the actual numbers, I'll eat my hat. Because you can't predict things like that, this far ahead of release, with any accuracy. You don't know what the story will be, what the trailer looks like - in the case of X3, we don't even know everyone who's starring in the film yet! Jesus, I need to start up a financial services firm and specialize in offering wild and inaccurate box office predictions to movie studios for big cash.

The ONE thing I agree with is that Marvel dropped the ball by not putting together a Hulk cartoon, or some other way of keeping the character out there after the film ran its course. Merchandising was great up to and after the release of the movie, but there was nothing to sustain interest beyond that.

Hey - I'll offer my own, completely-as-valid predictions. Let's see who's more accurate, shall we? How about $200 mil worldwide for GHOST RIDER, $450 mil worldwide for X3, and $275 mil worldwide for FANTASTIC FOUR?

[BIGGUN]

I agree w/ DK on this....200 mil sounds about right.
it almost sounds like this guy didnt take into account the budget and a few other factors into his estimate. he may still be going by that old initial production amount of 50 mil that was announced a long time ago.

[Sabretooth]

I just hope it makes enough money to give us a sequel,and also enough to convince Fox for Daredevil 2.:mad:

[FlameHead]

150 mill doesn't sound right at all... not at all. Maybe Domestically, but not worldwide. Whoever Raymond James is... he's not very bright.

Unless he's right and then I'll be sad... very sad.

[FlameHead]

It'll be almost 2 years since this topic has been talked about when the movie is released. It's just as well to bump in with just over a year to go.

How much does everyone now think it's going to make?

Not that it really matters...

[Super_Ludacris]

2007 is insane

[GMONEY]

It Would Be Interesting If It Broke Spiderman's Record!!! It'll Be Tough Though

[FlameHead]

Near Impossible.

[BIGGUN]

Near Impossible.


yeah...supes has just been around much longer than GR and has a much bigger fan base. the media will push supes likes its the cure to cancer....you probably wont be able to go anywhere w/out seeing that big read "S".
this is one of Warners biggest comic properties so they are really going to go all on out on advertisements
also supes is much more family oriented than GR...that alone will mean big $$ at the box office.

[Advanced Dark]

Opening weekend should be near 55-65 million for Ghost Rider and with the Holiday and all. If it's solid it should gross 2.5-3 times that when the run is over dometic. Germany it should be huge but overseas #'s depend on how they take this character.

[This I.........]

not even this movie is gonna bomb at the box office even worst then catwoman and electra electras first preview looked way way better then this one ghost rider is womp womp plus have u seen the pics of the villains come on this movie should be direct 2 dvd:ghost:

[Advanced Dark]

not even this movie is gonna bomb at the box office even worst then catwoman and electra electras first preview looked way way better then this one ghost rider is womp womp plus have u seen the pics of the villains come on this movie should be direct 2 dvd:ghost:

Troll much? Yeah a 120 million dollar direct to DVD movie. Sony should consider your option based on your viewing of stills prior to post production. LMFAO

[Super_Ludacris]

It Would Be Interesting If It Broke Spiderman's Record!!! It'll Be Tough Though

It's just not happening

[Mr Nick]

Hmm. I don't think I can make a prediction until I've seen more of the movie and the marketing starts to roll.

:ghost:

[Mr. Socko]

I doubt it'll make as much as X3, and lets not even compare it to Superman Returns. I see Returns being over-rated and the talk of the town, alot like Batman '89 was. Maybe GR will make a little over 200 million.

I still don't understand why Daredevil did so terrible:confused:

But GR will own:ghost:

[RedIsNotBlue]

Considering the slump that the box office is in I can say this. I honestly do not have a prediction. I have hopes but no actual idea around how much it will make. I mean King Kong was expected to have Titanic numbers (and it should have) but it only turned out to be a moderate success at the box office. And considering that this movie has switched dates around so much its even harder to gauge.

Going by how the box office is going I will go ahead and try to make a guess. 230 million worldwide and 40-50 million on dvd.

[casketmouth]

Because Mark Johnson is making it,

IT WILL BE A BOMB.


Not THE bomb, but A bomb....correct..this guy screwed up daredevil. why's he trynna direct again?! Why did they hire him again are they stupid? He didn't even bring in big bucks with DD, and DD is more popular than Ghost rider which the cg looks like crap to start with.

[casketmouth]

I doubt it'll make as much as X3, and lets not even compare it to Superman Returns. I see Returns being over-rated and the talk of the town, alot like Batman '89 was. Maybe GR will make a little over 200 million.

I still don't understand why Daredevil did so terrible:confused:

But GR will own:ghost:


This won't even make as much as Fantastic Four...it's gonna suck, daredevil did very badly so what makes people think This moron will fix his mistakes when he didn't fix them the first time.

[screenamesuck]

I really hope most of you are kidding. If you think the visuals suck so far from what we've seen, then you need your eye's checked. I never saw the director's cut of Daredevil, but I here nothing but good things about it, so lets give this DD sucked crap a rest already.

I don't really care what everyone else says, i've been a fan of Ghost Rider since I was a little boy, so this is a dream come true for me. Even if nobody else likes it I will still love it from the very first scene to the very last name in the credits.

[Mr Nick]

Not THE bomb, but A bomb....correct..this guy screwed up daredevil. why's he trynna direct again?! Why did they hire him again are they stupid? He didn't even bring in big bucks with DD, and DD is more popular than Ghost rider which the cg looks like crap to start with.

This is an old chestnut, but Mark Steven Johnson didn't screw up Daredevil; Fox did. They made him chop up his faithful, meaty movie into a skeletal, shallow action flick. Thank God for the Director's Cut.

:ghost:

[RedIsNotBlue]

It is common knowledge that FOX likes to have movies their way instead of the director's way. Well at least its common knowledge to me.

[FlameHead]

Let's not fall into Casketmouths troll trap folks. Ignoring is the best way to make bad things go away.

[FlameHead]

Bumpity

I'm gonna say about... 4 Billion dollars.

[BIGGUN]

Bumpity

I'm gonna say about... 4 Billion dollars.


and thats just the 1st day...heh

[FlameHead]

Any new predictions after seein' the first teaser?

[RedIsNotBlue]

At least 300 million worldwide. Probably somewhere between 300 and 400 million.

[FlameHead]

I think that's a pretty safe bet Red.

[blind_fury]

50 mil opening weekend
120 mil total domestic gross
210 mil total worldwide gross

[deathshead2]

I could see 200WW
and 120 for over here. Not really bad I think for an unknown really.

[screenamesuck]

I know it's gonna get atleast $8. I'll be there opening night

[xwolverine2]

35mil first day

[FlameHead]

That's what I'm talkin' bout.

[xwolverine2]

woops... i meant weekend.

35 is too crazy

[FlameHead]

Boo.

[Atomic Crusader]

This flick is a sure-thing. I am stunned by that trailer, it has some of the best looking comicbook movie footage I've ever seen, and not an easy character to translate to film no doubt. I just hope the script and dialog are as good. I know nothing about the character, just that he is really cool looking. This will help keep the comicbook movie alive and hopefully encourage the studio's to stick more closely to the source material on every level. All you GR fans must be totally psyched, I sure am!!!

As for box office, endless millions, spanning into years of DVD sales, sequels, etc, etc...

[MarvelMovies]

50 mil opening weekend
120 mil total domestic gross
210 mil total worldwide gross

I could see these numbers as being truth.

Though, I could even see a little higher then that as far as Total Domestic Gross goes... maybe 160 - 180 million.

[Cinemaman]

My predictions...

Opening weekend: $37m

Domestic: $141m

Foreign: $116m

Worldwide: $257m

[deathshead2]

Nic cage is very popular actor so I can see this movie making a good amount of money to get a GR2 at least sesne if national treasor(spelling?) can make alot of money for being a bad movie.So a good Nic cage movie should make alot.

[Weadazoid]

Well the trailer just looks increadible IMO....


The CGI looks breath taking at points..... so increadibly crsip...man Sony and Columbia have really gone all out.



The CGI hear looks cleaner and crisper then what I have seen in both the X men and Superman trailers and that says alot....the colors the contrast between the flames and the darknes of the night just looks increadible



They have really had the time to perfect this one it should be spectacular and the box office should follow through in a big way

[FlameHead]

So, hands up who thinks Ghost Rider will beat X3's record?

Not a chance I say but, would be freakin' awesome!!!

[RedIsNotBlue]

So, hands up who thinks Ghost Rider will beat X3's record?

Not a chance I say but, would be freakin' awesome!!!

Ehhh. Don't see it happening. Maybe for the sequel.

[FlameHead]

Yeah, not a chance. I can't believe X3 did what it did yesterday, let alone GR doing it. You're right on the sequal though. I'm sure this movie will draw a lot of new people to the comic and all those Blade fans are thirsty for this kind of flick too.

Thirsty. Ha. That's funny.

[xwolverine2]

woops... i meant weekend.

35 is too crazy
well.. after seeing x3s success... then now i mean first day:up:

[FlameHead]

Bump. Anybody change thier minds on their predictions now that we've seen some footage?

[Kuato]

I don't want to make an actual numerical prediction just yet but I would wager that it easily breaks the President's Day weekend record.

[Blayton]

$28m Opening Weekend

$80m Total for the states

[Hunter Rider]

If it gets good reviews and with the visuals it has GR could open to around $50M IMO but it could also be close to Hellboy and Constantine in numbers
overall total may crack $100M with another $80M WW

[COME ON !]

300-400 mill ?

[FlameHead]

At least.

We talk about it in this thread;
http://www.superherohype.com/forums/showthread.php?t=170700

[COME ON !]

Ok, didn't know you already had a box office thread. Looks like I have made a fool out of myself, I'll take off now:D :p

[FlameHead]

Not a fool at all. Just helpin' ya along, that's all.

I spend far too much time here ya see and love the company, so please, stick around!

[COME ON !]

Not a fool at all. Just helpin' ya along, that's all.

I spend far too much time here ya see and love the company, so please, stick around!

Thanks, I will. I'm looking forward to the Ghost Rider movie, he looks like a cool character:up: :)

[FlameHead]

"He's the coolest looking character in the Marvel Universe"

I'll add to that quote; in any Universe.

[COME ON !]

"He's the coolest looking character in the Marvel Universe"

I'll add to that quote; in any Universe.

Well, he is certainly looking cool in that trailer !:ghost: :ghost: :ghost:

[FlameHead]

Any changes in your predictions now folks?

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The trailer was awful, the effects looked undone, so I'm not going to comment too much about them. I laughed at the previews, I never laugh at non-comic previews.

I say the reviews will be terrible because it's a action movie with a feburary realease date and it stars Nic Cage, the critics hate him for some reason. Personally I like him and alot of his action movies but this looks awful.

RottenTomatoes prediction: Rotten at 29 percent.

BOXOFFICE:opening 35 mill for the holiday weekend and 90mil total and it's overseas will probably be a little higher, say 95mil.

[FlameHead]

Fair estimate indeed.

I still think it'll be a sleeper hit though...

[DA Harvey Dent]

How much you guys think it will make domestic gross?

My guess is $60 million.

[CAH]

Probably no more than $100 million.

Once it comes out and word gets around, people may go to see it more. I myself will be seeing it atleast 2 times.

Plus it could have a big overseas take in.


CAH

[Midnyte_Sun]

Its definitely going to make over 100 Million domestically.

[WiscoD]

Its definitely going to make over 100 Million domestically.f**K TITANIC!!!!! 500 mill. domestic!!!

[matrix_ghost]

Being a PG 13 movie gives this movie a VERY BIG advantage to reach 100 million IMO. I mean if Daredevil can reach that mark with all the cuts that MSJ made on Fox's demand, then this movie will do the same.

It is opening in February and it doesn't have that much competition.

Realistically speaking this flick might open somewhere around the 40 million mark and gross around 120-150 domestic with probably around 200-300 worldwide.
Sony did a wise decision to release the flick very close the US release date.Ooh it opens even earlier in Belgium. I just might take te train and watch it there :woot:
From IMDB :
Belgium 14 February 2007
Hong Kong 15 February 2007
Singapore 15 February 2007
Estonia 16 February 2007
Spain 16 February 2007
USA 16 February 2007
Egypt 21 February 2007
France 21 February 2007
Australia 22 February 2007
Bulgaria 23 February 2007
Norway 23 February 2007
Sweden 23 February 2007
Hungary 1 March 2007
Brazil 2 March 2007
Denmark 2 March 2007
Iceland 2 March 2007
UK 2 March 2007
Germany 8 March 2007
Finland 9 March 2007
Italy 9 March 2007
Croatia 22 March 2007
Netherlands 22 March 2007
Norway 23 March 2007
Poland 23 March 2007
Israel 29 March 2007
Argentina 5 April 2007
New Zealand 19 April 2007
Japan June 2007

IMO , i think that another thing that may help bringing in the cash would be releasing GhostRider in Imax. Heck Superman Returns saving grace has been IMAX.
Imagine hearing GR voice in IMAX :wow:

[BIGGUN]

i certainly hope its more than 100mil...their budget was at least 120mil. thats not good if it makes less than their production budget here in the US

[Canadian Rider]

I would think that it will make at least 60 US domestic. The international market is probably going to bring in double that since the total number of screens will be so large.
So 180$ plus.

The DVD sales will be enormous since the product is coming out in time for Halloween I expect.

One thing that would boost this significantly is something HUGE in advertising - a long clip for the superbowl etc.

Wish? 120 US 360 International ... tough numbers for a less well known character.

[batfan1028]

well me3 personaly i think opening weekend 30-40 million.but worldwide to the end im thinkin 180 million.im probably goin to watch it twice once with my friends second time with my brother.

[Mr.GhostRider]

I hope the movie doesn't get released cuz Nick Cage is gonna **** up my character. Go see the movie, but keep buying the comic book.

[FlameHead]

Sleeper Hit. I'll say no more.

[xwolverine2]

i meant to put 80mil... not 20!

i thought it was opening day....lol