2008 Presidential Prognostication Game

[Malice]

I am going to create a game of this.

You can base what you think on fact, but lets have a Nostradamus moment here. It will be interesting to look back 6 months, and see if we were even close. REMEMBER, dont pick who you WANT to win, but who you THINK will win.

I, the great Malice, prognosticate the following:
1) the Democratic Nomination will goto Obama
2) the Republican Nomination will goto McCain
3) In the end, after a hard fought battle of you such, I rule, Obama will win out.

Lets see if I am actually even close.......

[cookiva]

1 - I feel that Obama will win the Democratic nomination, using Edward's votes to swing him past Clinton.

2 - Romney and McCain duke it out past super tuesday, with Romney beating McCain

3 - Bloomberg enters the race, after McCain drops out, knowing that he can take the moderate central vote away from the far swinging candidates.

4 - Obama wins the election, but in a tight race. Bloomberg takes away more votes from both sides than expected, and ends up around 20% of the votes. Romney is seen as arrogant, while Obama appeals to more than just the college crowd.

5 - The Hype vote, however, goes to Asteroid Man. Matt declares a recount, putting the hype into a state of online depression it has never seen. In the end, we find out it was rigged, and Hippie Hunter actually won by 10 votes (389 - 379) over Spoons.

[bell110]

I think Hillary will take the Dems barely.

I think McCain will win a hard fought fight for the Reps

I think Paul will run for the Libertarian ticket after the primaries.

The crystal ball gets kind of foggy after this point, but I'll say McCain will win the presidency.

[Malice]

This is interesting to see, I am fascinated as to all these predictions...

[Venom'sDad]

OK... not quite the prognosticator, but I'll play.....I have two btw. ;)

R - RudyG
D - hellary

Winner - RudyG

for the record... I HATE EM BOTH

R - RudyG
D - hellary
I - Bloomberg

Winner - hellary

for the record... I HATE EM ALL

[Kel]

I think Hillary will take the Dems barely.

I think McCain will win a hard fought fight for the Reps

I think Paul will run for the Libertarian ticket after the primaries.

The crystal ball gets kind of foggy after this point, but I'll say McCain will win the presidency.

You could very well be right.......:csad:


Bloomberg is the missing portion of all of this for me........

[hippie_hunter]

Democratic Party
Nominee: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination due to winning delegate rich states New York, Massachusetts, California, New Jersey, Texas, Ohio, and Virginia.

Running Mate: Wesley Clark due to his endorsement of her.

Republican Party
Nominee: Far too close to call


South Carolina: Match-up between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee needs to win this state or else his campaign is over.


Michigan: John McCain wins Michigan due to Romney's second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain's boost from New Hampshire and recent national polls, and the fact that Michigan is another open primary, conservative Democrats and independent voters will vote for McCain over Romney. What makes it worse is that the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of its delegates in the Democratic National Convention thereby making voting at the Democratic primaries completely pointless. Voters who would have voted there will probably end up voting in the Republican primaries instead, a huge advantage for McCain.


Florida: Match-up between John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani needs this state or else his campaing is over due to his lack of campaigning in early primary states.


Super Tuesday: Rudy Giuliani if he wins Florida. If he wins Florida he'll do well in Super Tuesday due to delegate rich states such as New York, California, Illinois, and others. If he does well enough in Super Tuesday, he'll most likely be the Republican nominee. If he doesn't it'll be too close to call.


Running Mate: Joe Lieberman if John McCain wins the nomination due to his endorsement, personal relationship between the two, and the fact that they have worked very well together in the past.

Mike Huckabee if Rudy Giuliani wins the nomination to balance the ticket due to his perception as a "northern liberal." He needs a Southern, evangellical conservative like Huckabee to do so.

No idea if Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney on their prospective running mates. Huckabee will joke around though by "asking" Stephen Colbert.

Others
Michael Bloomberg will enter the race if Rudy Giluiani or John McCain do not win the nomination.

[The Senator]

THE DEMOCRATS

-The Democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton. She will come out on top in Nevada, and will then carry several big states on Super Tuesday.

-Her running mate will be Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana. The two have been good friends in the Senate, and Bill Clinton has been a big fan of Bayh for many years. Plus, he's from a red state, and polling data which surveyed Indianans in November suggests that Hillary will win the state with the inclusion of Bayh as her VP.

THE REPUBLICANS

-John McCain will barely win Michigan and South Carolina, and his subsequent momentum will carry him through to the very end to prevail as the Republican nominee.

-McCain will choose Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota as his running mate. Pawlenty is the young governor of a swing state, and could very well help McCain's chances of winning Minnesota's independent voters.

THE END RESULT

I believe Hillary Clinton will win in the end. My predicted electoral vote is 305-233, with Hillary winning swing states Ohio, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri. Even though she'll choose Bayh as her VP with the hopes of carrying Indiana, she won't carry the state. I also think she'll lose New Hampshire, since its independents largely voted for McCain in the primary (I don't see why that would change in the general).

[Anguissette1979]

Democratic Party
Nominee: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination due to winning delegate rich states New York, Massachusetts, California, New Jersey, Texas, Ohio, and Virginia.

Running Mate: Wesley Clark due to his endorsement of her.

QFT :up:

[hippie_hunter]

I'm bumping this thread due to tommorrow's primary.

I predict that John McCain will win Michigan.

[StorminNorman]

I...did not know there was a Politics thread until today :shocked:

Hillary will win the Democrat nomination.

The Republican nomination is impossible to call:

If Romney takes Nevada and does well in South Carolina - he may squeeze in and win Florida. Delivering Super Tuesday.

If McCain takes Nevada and South Carolina - he will win Florida and the nomination.

Huckabee needs a Romney win in Nevada and a victory in South Carolina - pushing him to a Florida win. He needs Rudy to take states like California and New York and New Jersey and McCain to lose a few other states to either Rudy or Romney.

Rudy needs Florida, anyone but McCain to take South Carolina and Romney to take Nevada. Even then he will need a ton of support.

Florida will be the biggest primary for the year. While I think Romney and McCain can survive with out it - Guiliani and Huckabee live or die there.

Bloomsberg will run if Romney or Huckabee win. Should this happen - he will take more votes away from Clinton than he will the GOP.

[Malice]

interesting bump

[Matt]

I'm a bit late.

Democratic Nomination - Clinton. Provided she sweeps the big four today (Mass, Cali, NY, and NJ) she will just about have the nomination locked. She could still lose, but it would be incredibly uphill for Obama.

Republican Nomination - Tough to call. I'll say McCain, but if Romney does inch him out in Cali, he will be right back in this thing. But yeah, McCain...final answer.

President - McCain. I don't think Hillary can beat Romney or McCain.

[Zen]

I, the great Malice, prognosticate the following:
1) the Democratic Nomination will goto Obama
2) the Republican Nomination will goto McCain
3) In the end, after a hard fought battle of you such, I rule, Obama will win out.



I am curious about talk radio railing against McCain and i wonder how much impact that will have, if anyone is tearing the conservative movement apart... my vote goes to them.

but in the End,

I have to Second Malice's vision

[JStorm]

Go Ron Paul.

[ShadowBoxing]

Go Ron Paul.
Ron Paul is most certainly not going anywhere.

[JStorm]

Ron Paul is most certainly not going anywhere.

Looks like I'm writing in Arnold. :up:

[Malice]

Its getting closer how has everyone done so far...
Remember, no politics here (no discussing politics) just how you did

[bell110]

If this poll took place last week, I would have picked Obama for the Dems, but it looks like Hillary is catching up with him. I was wrong about McCain, he won the Reps pretty easily. Paul just going to focus on his congressional run now.

[Malice]

How has everyone come out on this one?

[Zen]

this political rollercoaster... up or down, has been one of the most interesting contests i have ever seen.

watching McCain navigate his fractured party and come out essentially nothing like what he became popular for...

Obama navigating campaign road-side bombs that would have derailed so many others... have me questioning exactly what his major appeal is, or where is staying power iscoming from

Hillary has shown that a woman not only can do this... but will do it sooner than others might have once thought.

i also find it interesting that black men come before white women in many issues throughout history.

I still support Obama.

its been a long contest, much of my intial fever was sapped by this long contest. but now, finally as he seems to have almost clinched this nomination, i can feel it returning.

i still think he will have a good- to -great chance at beating McCain if obama can pick the right VP, and do what i know he can in debates on security... which is all McCain represents....

so far your predection malice, of which whos lead im following.... is looking more and more like the presumable outcome.

to have guessed this when you posted though is a bit insane. despite iowa i give you kudos.

[Malice]

this political rollercoaster... up or down, has been one of the most interesting contests i have ever seen.

watching McCain navigate his fractured party and come out essentially nothing like what he became popular for...

Obama navigating campaign road-side bombs that would have derailed so many others... have me questioning exactly what his major appeal is, or where is staying power iscoming from

Hillary has shown that a woman not only can do this... but will do it sooner than others might have once thought.

i also find it interesting that black men come before white women in many issues throughout history.

I still support Obama.

its been a long contest, much of my intial fever was sapped by this long contest. but now, finally as he seems to have almost clinched this nomination, i can feel it returning.

i still think he will have a good- to -great chance at beating McCain if obama can pick the right VP, and do what i know he can in debates on security... which is all McCain represents....

so far your predection malice, of which whos lead im following.... is looking more and more like the presumable outcome.

to have guessed this when you posted though is a bit insane. despite iowa i give you kudos.

Thanks..I honestly think NOW...McCain will edge out Obama...but we will see if my original prediction holds true

[Malice]

bump

[Spider-Gamer]

bump

It looks like your predictions so far are coming true Malice.

[Malice]

yeah, I said Obama would win out...then I thought McCain would....after it was down to them a few months ago...now...I just dont know.

[SuBe]

Oh Great One, what is your prediction for the FairTax?

[Malice]

Oh Great One, what is your prediction for the FairTax?

I want it, but it wont happen

[SuBe]

I want it, but it wont happen
:scowl:

[Malice]

Well I picked Obama originally...then I though Obama was putting his foot in his mouth...but noone listened...

So at this point, unless Obama shoots someone on national TV, he will be our next Pres....

[BlackestNight]

Bump! (Because of Franklin Richards' Thread)

[Malice]

Check it out....I was right! I was dead on!
WOOOOOOOOOOO

[Malice]

I am amazed I picked it right

[SuBe]

Malice, what are the lotto numbers for next week?

[Malice]

Malice, what are the lotto numbers for next week?

*dances a little jig*

If I had those number do you think I would give them to you?
HUH??!?

I would take them...and then give the FairTax org a facelift...commercials..infomercials...you name it

[SuBe]

*dances a little jig*

If I had those number do you think I would give them to you?
HUH??!?

I would take them...and then give the FairTax org a facelift...commercials..infomercials...you name it
Huh, I would do the same thing.