Decision 2012: Possible Candidates?

[The Senator]

The nominees aren't even decided for the 2008 election, but, I was wondering... who do you think would have a good chance in 2012?

[Chris B]

Some possibilities for the Democrats:

Barack Obama (if he loses the nomination this time around)
Evan Bayh
Russ Feingold
Mark Warner
Brad Henry
Eliot Spitzer
Sherrod Brown
Kathleen Sebelius
Bill Richardson (I could see him running again)

[hippie_hunter]

I think the frontrunner for 2012 right now for the Democrats is Mark Warner if they lose in 2008.

[Matt]

Democrats:

Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown (my personal two favorites), Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, Elliot Spitzer. I doubt Obama will take another go if he loses. Especially if he wins the primary and still loses. Historically, voters don't like losers.

Republicans:

Jeb Bush? Possibly a couple governors? I'm not sure, I haven't followed their side as closely.

[\S/JcDc\S/]

Chris... Richardson? Are you kidding me?? :eek:

No way.

[The Senator]

DEMOCRATS

Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Senator Sherrod Brown (OH)
Governor Chet Culver (IA)
Senator Chuck Schumer (NY)
Governor Brad Henry (OK)
Governor Mike Easley (NC)
Governor Tim Kaine (VA)
Governor Brian Schweitzer (MT)
Senator Russ Feingold (WI)
Governor Janet Napolitano (AZ)
Governor Kathleen Sebelius (KS)
Senator Blanche Lincoln (AR)
Governor Bill Richardson (NM)
Governor Bill Ritter (CO)
future Senator/ Former Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Possibly Eliot Spitzer, though he's screwed himself over royally these past few months. I don't know if he can make a political come back, especially if Bloomberg runs for governor in 2010... because polls show Bloomberg beating Spitzer by a few points.

My top picks: Bayh, Warner, Feingold, Brown, and Schweitzer
---

REPUBLICANS

Always tricky, since I'm no expert on the party. But here it goes:

Governor Mark Sanford (SC)
Governor Bobby Jindal (LA)
Governor Tim Pawlenty (MN)
Governor Jon Huntsman (UT)
Senator John Sununu (NH) (If he wins re-election this year)
Senator Sam Brownback (KS)
Senator Norm Coleman (MN) (if he wins re-election)
Senator John Thune (SD)
Rep. Mike Pence (IN)

I think the Republicans will be looking for more youthful, new-idea sort of candidates who also appeal to the party's ideological base if they lose in 2008.

My guess would be Bobby Jindal has the best chance of breaking through, since he is the Barack Obama of the Republican Party. It all depends on how successful he is in managing Louisiana over the next four years.

[rdh007]

Democrats:

Mark Warner, Sherrod Brown (my personal two favorites), Evan Bayh, Russ Feingold, Elliot Spitzer. I doubt Obama will take another go if he loses. Especially if he wins the primary and still loses. Historically, voters don't like losers.

Spitzer's a shoe-in: He's our Rudy.

What Will Warner Do? (Between now and then)

Feingold would've been better off this time. The war won't be as important in four years. We'll have found some other thing to occupy us.

Obama might go again, if he runs for Governor of Illinois. Not that he will, but executive experience might help him.

Who is Sherrod Brown?

[The Senator]

Spitzer's a shoe-in: He's our Rudy.

What Will Warner Do? (Between now and then)

Feingold would've been better off this time. The war won't be as important in four years. We'll have found some other thing to occupy us.

Obama might go again, if he runs for Governor of Illinois. Not that he will, but executive experience might help him.

Who is Sherrod Brown?

Sherrod Brown is the junior senator from Ohio.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sherrod_Brown

(I normally don't use wikipedia, but... when looking up these guys, it's usually a good source to find basic info)

Spitzer is one of my favorite politicians. Ever. But, he hasn't been doing all that great in New York, and as someone who loves the way he worked as Attorney General, I am a bit disappointed in how he's been operating as Governor. Plus, he currently sits with a 37% approval rating, which doesn't bode well for prospective candidates. Maybe he can turn himself around?

[rdh007]

Zod willing, he will.

[Matt]

Spitzer's a shoe-in: He's our Rudy.

What Will Warner Do? (Between now and then)

Warner is running for Senate.


Feingold would've been better off this time. The war won't be as important in four years. We'll have found some other thing to occupy us.

True enough.


Obama might go again, if he runs for Governor of Illinois. Not that he will, but executive experience might help him.

I doubt he will give up his senate seat to run for Governor of Illinois. Especially when the senate seat keeps him in the national spotlight. If he loses this election, all of the young kids he had supporting him will become incredibly disenchanted and cynical about the political system. They likely will be too jaded to bother if he runs again thinking he will just lose again and that will cut his base in half.


Who is Sherrod Brown?

Junior senator from Ohio...or as you can call him, the next FDR. :cwink:

[rdh007]

If he's half-FDR, I'd take it.

[The Senator]

I doubt he will give up his senate seat to run for Governor of Illinois. Especially when the senate seat keeps him in the national spotlight. If he loses this election, all of the young kids he had supporting him will become incredibly disenchanted and cynical about the political system. They likely will be too jaded to bother if he runs again thinking he will just lose again and that will cut his base in half.

Leaving the Senate for the Governor's mansion rarely happens, and when it does happen, it's almost always a stupid mistake.

The only person in recent memory who I think benefited from this was Jon Corzine. He wasn't going anywhere in the Senate, but he became a pretty good governor in New Jersey. I'd say he had a shot at the Presidency, too, but I don't think he wants it.

Obama ought to stay in the Senate. He could very well go somewhere. He is young, so he could easily have another twenty years or so left in him. He could very well become majority leader. But if he runs for Governor, he'd lose any chance of going further in politics, which would significantly alter his chances of becoming President further down the road.

Chuck Schumer knew this. He was going to run for Governor in 2006, but decided against it. It wasn't purely because Spitzer was poised to challenge him, but there was a possibility he could go some place in the Senate, since he was already raking in the tenure. Now, he's the fourth ranking Senator, and is most likely going to be the next majority leader. Schumer was only going to run for Governor so he could run for President; but I'm sure he realized that he would have just as good a shot at the Presidency if he stayed in the Senate... and as it turned out, he'll probably have more clout if he stays away from the Presidency altogether.

Junior senator from Ohio...or as you can call him, the next FDR. :cwink:

I think a Warner-Brown ticket would be amazing in 2012. Two great, charismatic populists on the same ticket. How about that :yay:

[Chris B]

Leaving the Senate for the Governor's mansion rarely happens, and when it does happen, it's almost always a stupid mistake.

The only person in recent memory who I think benefited from this was Jon Corzine. He wasn't going anywhere in the Senate, but he became a pretty good governor in New Jersey. I'd say he had a shot at the Presidency, too, but I don't think he wants it.

Obama ought to stay in the Senate. He could very well go somewhere. He is young, so he could easily have another twenty years or so left in him. He could very well become majority leader. But if he runs for Governor, he'd lose any chance of going further in politics, which would significantly alter his chances of becoming President further down the road.

Chuck Schumer knew this. He was going to run for Governor in 2006, but decided against it. It wasn't purely because Spitzer was poised to challenge him, but there was a possibility he could go some place in the Senate, since he was already raking in the tenure. Now, he's the fourth ranking Senator, and is most likely going to be the next majority leader. Schumer was only going to run for Governor so he could run for President; but I'm sure he realized that he would have just as good a shot at the Presidency if he stayed in the Senate... and as it turned out, he'll probably have more clout if he stays away from the Presidency altogether.

Schumer has presidential ambitions?

I think a Warner-Brown ticket would be amazing in 2012. Two great, charismatic populists on the same ticket. How about that :yay:

I've been reading up on Brown and I've started to like the guy. A Warner/Brown ticket would be awesome.

[The Chairman]

Historically, voters don't like losers.

Um, Nixon?

I'm interested in the 2012 elections because it'll be the first I'll be eligible to vote in. I'm planning on voting Democrat, though depending on who the winner is this year, I might vote otherwise.

[The Chairman]

Junior senator from Ohio...or as you can call him, the next FDR. :cwink:

I don't know who the idea is, but going by that nickname, I like the guy already.

[StorminNorman]

Depending on the way Iraq is four years from now - I think Jeb's candidacy will be very interesting.

He is probably the best President fodder out of the family (certainly including H.W.), but his last name will forever obviously haunt him. Even if public perception of Bush was high (and - again - it may be in four years time. Clinton isn't a curse for Hillary) the whispers of "do we really want that many Bush's" will be rampant.

Then again, since I see Hillary winning the nomination - I think President McCain/Romney will obviously be the GOP selection.

[The Professor]

Ross Perot, Ron Paul (RP vs. RP), and the long anticipated return of Bob Dole

[StorminNorman]

Ross Perot, Ron Paul (RP vs. RP), and the long anticipated return of Bob Dole

Little known fact:

Cloverfield is in fact inspired by the "what if" possibility of a Bob Dole 2012 candidacy.

[cerealkiller182]

Christopher Walken (thats right I said it)

[The Senator]

Schumer has presidential ambitions?


At the very least, he had them. Why else would you strongly consider a run for Governor of New York? Governors are typically elected over Senators...

[The Senator]

Um, Nixon?

Nixon was an anomaly. He disappeared for eight years, and ran against a party which was split in half (change vs. the establishment; sounds familiar). Had RFK survived and become the Democratic candidate, Nixon probably would have lost again. RFK's assassination was his political gain, because neither Hubert Humphrey or Eugene McCarthy would have been able to gain the support RFK would have had.

[Matt]

Um, Nixon?


The exception that proves the rule. :oldrazz:


I'm interested in the 2012 elections because it'll be the first I'll be eligible to vote in. I'm planning on voting Democrat, though depending on who the winner is this year, I might vote otherwise.

Let me give you some advice. Don't plan to vote any certain ticket. Vote candidates, not party.

[Matt]

Little known fact:

Cloverfield is in fact inspired by the "what if" possibility of a Bob Dole 2012 candidacy.

:woot: :up:

[Matt]

I think a Warner-Brown ticket would be amazing in 2012. Two great, charismatic populists on the same ticket. How about that :yay:

I just had 6 orgasms in a row :cwink:

[The Chairman]

The exception that proves the rule. :oldrazz:

Eh, outisde of Watergate, I didn't Nixon was that bad. He did do some good things, He was also goin to create a four day work week and give us a three day weekend


Let me give you some advice. Don't plan to vote any certain ticket. Vote candidates, not party.

Oh, I agree. The Democratic Party's ideal certainly fit my current ideology, but I'm not partisan.

[The Chairman]

Anyone think Gore might give it another go?

[Matt]

Anyone think Gore might give it another go?

Nah, politics are all about timing. All polls indicate that if he entered any time between November and January, he would've taken enough of Hillary, Obama, and Edwards' supporters to beat them all hands down. The timing was perfect for him. Yet the fact that he did not enter says to me he simply has no interest in being president anymore.

[StorminNorman]

Nixon was an anomaly. He disappeared for eight years, and ran against a party which was split in half (change vs. the establishment; sounds familiar). Had RFK survived and become the Democratic candidate, Nixon probably would have lost again. RFK's assassination was his political gain, because neither Hubert Humphrey or Eugene McCarthy would have been able to gain the support RFK would have had.

Now explain Jefferson and Jackson :oldrazz:

[The Senator]

Now explain Jefferson and Jackson :oldrazz:

I don't consider the elections before the Civil War to be an adequate reflection of contemporary politics. Jefferson and Jackson were defacto leaders of their respective parties, so they were able to stay in the national spotlight and continued to muster support from their own party, while outright criticizing the two Adamses. Politics worked a lot differently back then. The "modern" way of doing things really didn't surface until after reconstruction.

However, if you want to apply those cases to today's politics, you can. Al Gore is a good comparison. He stayed in the spotlight following his loss, criticizing Bush up until 9/11. He remained silenced afterwards, but he increased his criticism once Bush started to beat the war drums. Had he run in 2004, a possible Gore win could easily be conceived as a modern day Jackson/ Jefferson situation. But Gore refused to run then, he refused to run in 2008... the likelihood of him coming back in 2012 is slim.

Today, if you lose an election, you are almost abandoned by your party. Look at John Kerry, for example. He stayed in the spotlight, but his calls to bring home troops were outright mocked by his fellow Democrats in the Senate, despite the fact that the top three Democrats running for President are running with similar Iraq war strategies.

George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis were all discarded after their humiliating defeats.

I also don't consider Grover Cleveland an exception, because he was President before he was defeated and ran again four years later.

Candidates can be nominated multiple times-- though rare-- but it is even rarer for a returning "loser" to turn into a "winner."

[StorminNorman]

I don't consider the elections before the Civil War to be an adequate reflection of contemporary politics. Jefferson and Jackson were defacto leaders of their respective parties, so they were able to stay in the national spotlight and continued to muster support from their own party, while outright criticizing the two Adamses. Politics worked a lot differently back then. The "modern" way of doing things really didn't surface until after reconstruction.

Today, if you lose an election, you are almost abandoned by your party. Look at John Kerry, for example. He stayed in the spotlight, but his calls to bring home troops were outright mocked by his fellow Democrats in the Senate, despite the fact that the top three Democrats running for President are running with similar Iraq war strategies.

George McGovern, Walter Mondale, and Michael Dukakis were all discarded after their humiliating defeats.

I also don't consider Grover Cleveland an exception, because he was President before he was defeated and ran again four years later.

Candidates can be nominated multiple times-- though rare-- but it is even rarer for a returning "loser" to turn into a "winner."

When I use the ":oldrazz:" smiley - chances are my previous words were not meant with a great amount of seriousness.

[The Senator]

When I use the ":oldrazz:" smiley - chances are my previous words were not meant with a great amount of seriousness.

No, I understood that. But you brought up a good point, even with the razz.

[cookiva]

1 thing. If Hilary loses in 2008, Jeb Bush will not be a candidate in 2012. If she isn't elected, its because people want change. That sense will be carried into 2012, and the Bush name doesn't bring about a mind of "change"/

[LuiECuomo]

LOL, "change" - A term so overused yet it carries no weight or meaning whatsoever.

[The Senator]

After this election, the Supreme Court needs to rule in favor of a law which prohibits the use of that word in a political campaign.

Additionally, they should support a law which bans the use of U2 songs from political events.

[LuiECuomo]

Again, great points, jman. Especially that second one. :D

[sithgoblin]

What about Deval Patrick?

[The Senator]

What about Deval Patrick?

No thank you. He's apparently running Massachusetts into the ground.

[Chris B]

Reviving this thread, here are three Republicans that I could see making a run:

David Petraus
John Ensign
Sarah Palin

[cookiva]

Petraus wont run. After everything that happened, you could tell he wanted out of the public eye in such a severe way.