South Carolina Democratic Primary Thread

[Chris B]

A thread to discuss and analyze the results of the primary tonight.

[The Senator]

Obama will win.

On to Super Tuesday!

[Movies205]

Here's hoping Edwards wins :yay:

[souvlaki]

Wow, that was a fast projection. Obama declared winner by CNN literally the second the polls closed.

[Anguissette1979]

How the heck does that work? There are 0% reporting???

[souvlaki]

How the heck does that work? There are 0% reporting???

Exit polls. I'm assuming that Obama had a large enough lead that they felt comfortable making that call. I'm guessing this means Obama won by at least a 10% margin.

[souvlaki]

If I didn't know better I would swear Bill Clinton is giving a concession speech for South Carolina right now in place of Hillary (he's giving a speech on CNN right now conceding South Carolina). I like Bill, he was a great president, but what the hell? He is not running for president, why is he making this speech and not his wife? It's stuff like this that really grates on my nerves, and lowers my opinion of Hillary. I feel like no matter what she says to the contrary we are voting for her husband.

[Venom'sDad]

^^^ ...and you just now figuring that out. :rolleyes:

[Arkady Rossovich]

Obama won.

[Argyle of Sock]

So far 93% of precincts have reported:

Obama 55% (13 Delegates)
Clinton 27% (4 Delegates)
Edwards 18% (4 Delegates)

[hippie_hunter]

No surprise there, this was expected. He still won't win the nomination. Hillary still holds comfortable leads in the polls in states such as California (370 delegates), New York (281), New Jersey (107), Massachusetts (93), etc.

[Malice]

No surprise there, this was expected. He still won't win the nomination. Hillary still holds comfortable leads in the polls in states such as California (370 delegates), New York (281), New Jersey (107), Massachusetts (93), etc.

Polls have turned out quite inneffective in many states

[hippie_hunter]

Polls have turned out quite inneffective in many states

True but these are states with polls where Clinton has turned up in the lead of over 15% - 20%. More than Obama's less than 10% lead in New Hampshire. That's a rather comfortable lead plus they're states of the Democratic establishment, it's sorta expected for Clinton to win there anyways.

[rdh007]

New Hampshire to start with. Plus momentum coming out of SC leaves this race, errrr, contest, still open.

[rdh007]

True but these are states with polls where Clinton has turned up in the lead of over 15% - 20%. More than Obama's less than 10% lead in New Hampshire. That's a rather comfortable lead plus they're states of the Democratic establishment, it's sorta expected for Clinton to win there anyways.
I believe his lead was believed to be as high as 16-17%, but I could be wrong. It's happened once before.

[hippie_hunter]

I believe his lead was believed to be as high as 16-17%, but I could be wrong. It's happened once before.
No on average it was less than 10. The highest poll I saw was 13%. Obama's RCP average was 38.3% to Clinton's 30%.

[Ghostvirus]

So Obamanator takes South Carolina.:up:

[The Senator]

On to New York, New Jersey, California, Tennessee, Massachusetts, Missouri, and Minnesota! (and all those other states, I guess)

[hippie_hunter]

New Hampshire to start with. Plus momentum coming out of SC leaves this race, errrr, contest, still open.

Iowa gave Obama such great momentum that he lost the next two contests that he won in. Sure he'll win some Super Tuesday states like Illinois and Georgia but Clinton will win the large majority of Super Tuesday delegates and very likely seal her nomination.

[The Senator]

New Hampshire to start with. Plus momentum coming out of SC leaves this race, errrr, contest, still open.

Certainly, he'll have momentum.

But what happens when a moving object slams into a concrete wall?

It loses its momentum.

Consider February 5th the Hoover Dam, and Obama as a fly moving at 500 miles per hour.

[Matt]

Iowa gave Obama such great momentum that he lost the next two contests that he won in. Sure he'll win some Super Tuesday states like Illinois and Georgia but Clinton will win the large majority of Super Tuesday delegates and very likely seal her nomination.

Agreed. I imagine Obama will be conceding following Super Tuesday.

[Kel]

Well, Republicans sure as hell hope Hillary wins......lol

[rdh007]

Well, Republicans sure as hell hope Hillary wins......lol
QFT.

I can't wait for Pastor Chuckleberry's swearing in. Will he bring a snake?

or

Will Romney win and fill the stage with his wives and the Osmonds?

or

Will McCain need a nap halfway through the ceremony? Will he live that long?

[SuperT]

Having Hillary as the nomination for the Dem's is only ensuring that we have four mores years of Republican rule! :(

She is just too polarizing and divisive not just among her own party but amongst Republicans as well, and to be president you have to be able to work with them as well.

Not to mention she can't even run her own presidential campaign w/o Bill sniping his nose in everywhere. And their campaign tactics throughout this thing have been absolutely DEPLORABLE! I wish Edwards would just concede already and back Obama so we can take down the Hillmonster.

[The Senator]

Having Hillary as the nomination for the Dem's is only ensuring that we have four mores years of Republican rule! :(

And that's why polls from individual states show her beating both Mitt Romney and John McCain in crucial swing states, right? Because she's going to lose?

She wins all of the Kerry states, minus New Hampshire. She also wins Missouri, Iowa and Arkansas against both McCain and Romney. Those states alone secure her a win. She also has less-than-comfortable leads in New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. If Evan Bayh is her running mate, she has a good chance of carrying Indiana, too.

And I'm not talking about a 35-34% match up, either. Both candidates are in the mid-to-high 40% range. That means that 5% of the voters are undecided. They know who Clinton, Romney and McCain are.

On the other hand... Obama loses Missouri and Arkansas. He loses Ohio to McCain, and both McCain and Romney edge him out in Virginia. The only extra state he manages to win is Iowa, and that's only 7 electoral votes, hence not enough to win the Presidency.

Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will have a good chance at winning the Presidency. Regardless of who it is, though, they'll have to put up a good fight.

[SuperT]

When will people learn that you can't rely on polls?! They are useless. The American public are fickle bunch unfortunately that can change on the drop of hat.

If Hillbilly gets the nomination, the Repubs are gonna have a field day with her.

[Excel]

And that's why polls from individual states show her beating both Mitt Romney and John McCain in crucial swing states, right? Because she's going to lose?

She wins all of the Kerry states, minus New Hampshire. She also wins Missouri, Iowa and Arkansas against both McCain and Romney. Those states alone secure her a win. She also has less-than-comfortable leads in New Mexico, Ohio and Virginia. If Evan Bayh is her running mate, she has a good chance of carrying Indiana, too.

And I'm not talking about a 35-34% match up, either. Both candidates are in the mid-to-high 40% range. That means that 5% of the voters are undecided. They know who Clinton, Romney and McCain are.

On the other hand... Obama loses Missouri and Arkansas. He loses Ohio to McCain, and both McCain and Romney edge him out in Virginia. The only extra state he manages to win is Iowa, and that's only 7 electoral votes, hence not enough to win the Presidency.

Whoever becomes the Democratic nominee will have a good chance at winning the Presidency. Regardless of who it is, though, they'll have to put up a good fight.

YES.

Her support will not get any bigger than it is right now, nomination or not.

[The Senator]

YES.

Her support will not get any bigger than it is right now, nomination or not.

How will Obama's support get any bigger?

Are you talking about all those college kids who will go vote for him on election day? You know, the ones who didn't vote for him in New Hampshire and barely voted for him in Iowa?

Or are you talking about the dissatisfied Republicans? Because they're going to jump ship and vote for an ultra-liberal Senator with no real record on any of the issues they're concerned with?

Or are you talking about all the independents-- you know, the ones who didn't vote for Obama in New Hampshire? Or the independents who are typically divided right down the middle, no matter who the candidates are?

Obama's support isn't going to get any bigger than it is now. He has arguably overshadowed Hillary Clinton throughout the campaign. Those who are opposed to her candidacy have already shown their support for him. And according to an opinion poll released by Rasmussen last week, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have the same undecided margin (4%) among ALL voters.

Also, if Obama or Hillary are up against McCain, the democrats had better forget any chances of winning the election altogether. Polls released this week show McCain trouncing both candidates in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico (Similarly, if Romney is the nominee, Hillary Clinton apparently wins Kansas by eight points).

So, as you can see, support for both candidates will undoubtedly waiver depending upon who the Republican nominee is. Romney apparently adds voters to both Democrats' columns; McCain apparently subtracts voters from both Democrats' columns.

A Hillary or an Obama win depends on the Republican they face.

[hippie_hunter]

How will Obama's support get any bigger?

Are you talking about all those college kids who will go vote for him on election day? You know, the ones who didn't vote for him in New Hampshire and barely voted for him in Iowa?

Or are you talking about the dissatisfied Republicans? Because they're going to jump ship and vote for an ultra-liberal Senator with no real record on any of the issues they're concerned with?

Or are you talking about all the independents-- you know, the ones who didn't vote for Obama in New Hampshire? Or the independents who are typically divided right down the middle, no matter who the candidates are?

Obama's support isn't going to get any bigger than it is now. He has arguably overshadowed Hillary Clinton throughout the campaign. Those who are opposed to her candidacy have already shown their support for him. And according to an opinion poll released by Rasmussen last week, both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have the same undecided margin (4%) among ALL voters.

Also, if Obama or Hillary are up against McCain, the democrats had better forget any chances of winning the election altogether. Polls released this week show McCain trouncing both candidates in Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon, Washington, and New Mexico (Similarly, if Romney is the nominee, Hillary Clinton apparently wins Kansas by eight points).

So, as you can see, support for both candidates will undoubtedly waiver depending upon who the Republican nominee is. Romney apparently adds voters to both Democrats' columns; McCain apparently subtracts voters from both Democrats' columns.

A Hillary or an Obama win depends on the Republican they face.

McCain getting the nomination will be a bigger nightmare for Clinton than Obama. At least Obama can still do his change and hope motif if he got the nomination.

Clinton will absolutely have to drop her "experience" platform because McCain has 14 years more experience than her in the Senate. 10 more years than her in national politics in office. And has been involved with Washington politics in general since 1977. Plus he's served his country since 1958.

Iraq will most likely blow up in her face too since Clinton voted for it, defended her vote, and apparently opposes it. McCain supports it, but he opposed the way it was run under Rumsfeld and some successes in the surge will probably give him help to his campaign too.

The only people who will vote for Clinton will be mainstream Democrats. McCain will have the Republicans (the party as a whole will fearmonger those that hate McCain into voting for him and not running a third party by telling them that if McCain loses, we'll have another Clinton Presidency), the majority of independents, and several open-minded Democrats.

And he's a war hero to boot, he was almost killed in Vietnam, he has a Purple Heart from injuries that weren't inflicted upon himself (like a certain candidate from the last election), a POW who still suffers from the injuries inflicted upon him from his time as a prisoner.

And McCain is relatively cleaner than Clinton. McCain just has the Keating Five scandal which he got off rather clean. Clinton has to deal with the more recent Whitewater, Travelgate, Filegate, plus her husbands scandals in which she had no involvement in (Monica Lewinski and the pardons).

[Kel]

McCain is a nightmare for any of the Democratic candidates, but YES definitely more for Hillary.

Republicans around the country are praying that Hillary wins the nomination....lol

[Rasmon Redux]

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Kn3w3W1dGy4

[StorminNorman]

McCain is a nightmare for any of the Democratic candidates, but YES definitely more for Hillary.

Republicans around the country are praying that Hillary wins the nomination....lol

McCain appeals to the Indepedents - but he won't be able to rally and unite the GOP.

McCain is Bob Dole with less energy and more skeletons.

[hippie_hunter]

McCain appeals to the Indepedents - but he won't be able to rally and unite the GOP.

McCain is Bob Dole with less energy and more skeletons.

The GOP would likely fearmonger their followers into voting for McCain by telling them that they would be responsible for putting Hillary in office if they don't vote or sponsor a legitimate third party candidate.

If Clinton got the nomination, his skeletons really won't matter. The Clintons are filled with them.

Also independents and moderates form the majority of the voting populace.

[Matt]

At anyrate...I could see a Clinton vs McCain scenario getting incredibly dirty.

[YsoSerious]

Hillary's fading fast. It's almost as if Bill wants her to lose so the divorce can be sooner.

[Rated-X]

Unfortunately, I’ve seen it all before.
That picture of the seething, red-faced former president of the United States shaking his finger at members of the press who dare to question his wife’s slimy campaign tactics, is all too familiar to those who have worked closely with him in the past.

Like Janus, the two-faced Roman god, there are always been two distinct personalities in Bill Clinton. That charming, smiling gentleman seen in public is too often eclipsed in private by his negative twin evidenced in the eruption of a furious, unexpected, and uncontrollable rage, often accompanied by loud cursing and occasionally, even physical violence. It’s not a pretty picture.

I’ve been at the other end of that anger too many times and I was always amazed at the suddenness and intensity of his fury.
Early one Sunday morning, he woke me up at my Connecticut home screaming into the phone, “have you seen the Washington Post?” Blearily, I said no that I wasn’t in Washington (it was in the pre-Internet days). Apparently, the paper’s lead article had our poll and focus group questions about his character and image.

“Who did you tell?” “Who did you tell?” he shrieked. I assured him that I never spoke to the press. “Well, who DID you speak to?” he screeched.
“I only spoke to George [Stephanopopous] and Rahm [Emmanuel],” (his two closest aides). That set him off even more. He yelled even louder: “You ONLY told George and Rahm! You ONLY told George and Rahm! Why didn’t you just send out a f-ing press release. Don’t you understand that you can’t tell those two anything that you don’t want to see on the front page of the Washington Post? They leak everything!

He kept screaming about how he couldn’t keep anything confidential because everyone who worked for him leaked. Then he slammed the phone down. I was shaken. The phone conversation recalled an even more difficult encounter with his temper.

Many years earlier, in 1990, he seriously overstepped his boundaries with me during one of his blind rages and permanently changed our relationship.
It was during his last gubernatorial race and he was falling behind in the polls. When we met at the governor’s mansion, it was close to midnight. Hillary and Gloria Cabe, his campaign manager at the time, were at the meeting with Bill and me. I had left Connecticut after oral surgery that morning to arrive in time for a 6 p.m. meeting. My mouth was killing me, but I avoided taking any pain killers to be alert for the strategy session.

The meeting was changed several times because Bill had decided to do the Nightline Show. He finally arrived back to the mansion in a foul mood. Even though he was a teetotaler, I wondered if he had been drinking.
When he learned of his decline in the polls, he immediately blamed me, accusing me of spending too much time with other clients. Yelling and screaming, he escalated his charges, refusing to listen to me tell him that his latest ad had not been on television yet when the poll was completed. He kept ranting.

Finally, I had enough. I stood up and said I was leaving, quitting the campaign. I grabbed my coat and headed out of the mansion. As I crossed the foyer, I suddenly fell to the ground, tackled by Bill Clinton. I saw his large fist coming at me. Hillary was trying to get between us, yelling “Bill, Bill, stop it. Think about what you are doing. Bill, stop it!” Bill got up and I walked out the door. Hillary ran after me. She tried to calm me and asked me to walk around the grounds of the Mansion with her. “He only does this to people he loves,” she told me. (I’ll leave that one for the psychologists.)

When the story appeared in the media in 1992 , probably leaked by a fellow political consultant I had confided in that night, I called Hillary to warn her that the press was on to the fight. Her advice: Deny that it ever happened. I never did that, but I refused to comment.

Years later, when I was writing my book, Behind the Oval Office, I sent the galleys to Bill. He marked up a few areas where he had questions or comments. Then he called me and said “I never did actually hit you.” He asked me to change the text and tone down the story. At the request of the president of the United States, I did.

After that Sunday morning phone conversation about the Washington Post story, I wrote the president a letter telling him how upsetting I found his tantrums and saying that I couldn’t work with him any longer if that’s the way it was going to be. He seemed shocked that his volcanic outbursts caused personal pain. But he knew that I was serious and wrote me a nice note apologizing and the outbursts ceased.

Until, during the 1996 Republican convention, I called him in Wyoming, where he was on vacation. That was never his happiest time, and apparently, he was upset because his favorite golf driver, given him by the King of Morocco, had broken. (He once told me it took seven strokes off his game). He started screaming at me that he was on vacation and did not want to talk about the convention. Again, he was so loud that Eileen heard him across the room.

I hung up on him and went to sleep. A half hour later, Eileen answered a midnight call. A voice told her that the president of the United States was calling for Dick Morris. She told the caller that I was sleeping. Two minutes later, the phone rang again. “Miss, this is a call from the president of the United States.” Again, she told the caller that I was asleep. “The president wants to speak to Mr. Morris right now, please.” “I’m sorry, tell the president that he’s not available right now.” When the phone rang again a few minutes later, it woke me up. It was the president, calling to apologize and to talk about the convention.

Most of Bill’s tantrums were behind closed doors. But during Hillary’s presidential campaign, we’ve seen the real Bill boiling with rage.
But don’t think that he can’t stage blowing his top when he thinks it will be strategically useful. If you have any doubts, just remember another red-faced finger-pointing performance when he said “I want to say something to the American people. I want you to listen. I did not have sex with that woman, Ms. Lewinsky.”

Bill’s tantrums are causing the press to focus on him and not Hillary. That’s what he wants. No more questions about her experience, her ethics, her flip-flops. Now it's all about Bill.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_commentary/commentary_by_dick_morris/bill_clinton_s_temper_negatively_affects_hillary_s _campaign

[Matt]

I think the ammount of heat Bill is getting is unfair. Elizabeth Edwards campaigned for John, Barack Obama's wife has campaigned for him. Laura Bush for George Bush, etc. First ladies are always very vocal and very active in the campaign process. Clinton seems to be getting a bit more attention and heat because of his former position and the fact that he is a man.

[cookiva]

I think the ammount of heat Bill is getting is unfair. Elizabeth Edwards campaigned for John, Barack Obama's wife has campaigned for him. Laura Bush for George Bush, etc. First ladies are always very vocal and very active in the campaign process. Clinton seems to be getting a bit more attention and heat because of his former position and the fact that he is a man.

I agree with this, however, I do think he has said some things that he shouldn't have. If any of the other first lady "candidates" have said some of these things, they would have been given similar treatment. Not as extremely covered, but still covered.

[Matt]

I agree with this, however, I do think he has said some things that he shouldn't have. If any of the other first lady "candidates" have said some of these things, they would have been given similar treatment. Not as extremely covered, but still covered.

Well, fair enough. After all, I suppose Terresa Heinz Kerry is proof of that.

[rdh007]

At anyrate...I could see a Clinton vs McCain scenario getting incredibly dirty.
Yeah, neither candidate nor their surrogates seems very, well, calm.

[cookiva]

Yeah, neither candidate nor their surrogates seems very, well, calm.

The way the Obama and Clinton have run their campaigns, either one of them win and its a dirty final election. I think that this might be the first time in my life that I see a political ad for the presidency. Since I can remember, the DFW area has been pro-republican, yet outside of Huckabee, I don't see a republican candidate that this area would like.

[Matt]

I would love to see Obama win the primary, simply to see who his supporters scape goat for his mudslinging then. Right now it is all Hillary's fault that Obama, a "fresh, young, idealistic outsider" has sunk to the level of Hillary and is fighting dirty. Will it be McCain or Romney's fault if he does it in the general election?

[cookiva]

I would love to see Obama win the primary, simply to see who his supporters scape goat for his mudslinging then. Right now it is all Hillary's fault that Obama, a "fresh, young, idealistic outsider" has sunk to the level of Hillary and is fighting dirty. Will it be McCain or Romney's fault if he does it in the general election?

No, it will still be Clinton's fault. Those two will now always be linked politically. Good stuff.

[Matt]

No, it will still be Clinton's fault. Those two will now always be linked politically. Good stuff.

If nothing else they will be renowned for having one of the most dirty fought primaries in recent history.

[cookiva]

If nothing else they will be renowned for having one of the most dirty fought primaries in recent history.

I hope this isn't going to be a trend. At least I respect the republicans, outside of Romney, respect eachother.

[cookiva]

If nothing else they will be renowned for having one of the most dirty fought primaries in recent history.

I hope this isn't going to be a trend. At least I respect the republicans, outside of Romney, respect eachother.