The 2008 Democratic and Republican Primaries [Archive] - Page 5

SentinelMind

01-09-2008, 07:24 PM

Bill Schneider did an interesting analysis of the polls. It showed that the average of polls predicted Obama would get 37%, and Edwards 19%. It was only Hillary that was off by 9 percent (30 in polls, but 39 in reality). I think it was reported that between 15 to 20 percent of Dem voters decided who they were going to vote for......on that day. It's possible, Hillary was able to convince a whole load of undecideds to vote for her in one or two days.

Notice, though....Obama won a caucus, but Hillary won the primary..... Everyone will see who you voted for (which is why I think caucuses are ballsy, but stupid)....whereas primary, no one but you knows you who voted for. People want to be seen with Obama, but in their private little box, the may side with what they know...Clinton.

Matt

01-09-2008, 07:26 PM

Excel

01-09-2008, 07:28 PM

Another very valid point. Obama hasn't won a real election yet. Hillary has.

What? Obamas is heavily favored to win SC, thats a primary, but you just staed it doesnt matter.

Matt

01-09-2008, 07:30 PM

What? Obamas is heavily favored to win SC, thats a primary, but you just staed it doesnt matter.

I said he hasn't won South Carolina yet, but apparently I was unaware that the box office/political expert Excel could travel through time :cwink:

Kelly

01-09-2008, 07:31 PM

This site will give ya'll the head to head polls....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Debate away....

On another note...

Exit Polls Reveal Why Clinton Won the New Hampshire Primary!
1/9/08

Barack Obama was seen by voters as the most favorable, the best able to unite the country, the candidate that would be best to bring about change, and the most honest/trustworthy ... so why did he lose the election to Hillary Clinton?

Best Chance of Winning

44% say Obama has the best chance of winning in November, only 35% said Clinton.

Of the 44% that said Obama had the best chance of winning in November, only 70% of those actually voted for Obama. While Clinton won 87% of those stating she had the best chance of winning.

Favorable Impression

84% had a favorable impression of Obama versus only 74% for Clinton. But Obama could only covert 42% of those with a favorable impression of him into votes. While Clinton converted 51% of her "favorable" voters.

Honesty/Trustworthy

30% said Obama is the most honest and trustworthy, 27% said Clinton. But Clinton converted 97% of those voters to Obama only converting 88%.

Unifier

51% said Obama is the most likely to unite the country, only 28% said that of Clinton. But Clinton again converted all 97% of her support while Obama was only able to convert 66% of his into support.

Clinton's Strengths
Clinton did great with respect to her experience and who would be the best commander-in-chief.

But the obvious issue was of how women changed this election. Women gave Clinton a 46% to 34% advantage. So could it be that there were women who saw great qualities in Obama but still chose Clinton on the basis of gender?

hippie_hunter

01-09-2008, 07:31 PM

I think Edwards will win South Carolina like he did last time.

Excel

01-09-2008, 07:33 PM

Just wait till us African Americans get at the polls, all I will say ;)

Obama had trouble converting support into votes because, like I said, many thought he would win big. Hillary had no trouble because like I said, everybody thought she needed all the help she can get.

Anguissette1979

01-09-2008, 07:34 PM

What? Obamas is heavily favored to win SC, thats a primary, but you just staed it doesnt matter.

Here is a site that collects poll results...

NH Dem Primary: http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

SC Dem Primary: http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

IA Dem Caucus: http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

NV Dem Caucus: http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Matt

01-09-2008, 07:37 PM

Just wait till us African Americans get at the polls, all I will say ;)

Unfortunately, the majority of your demographic doesn't traditionally vote in primaries. Things could change this time...just saying historical trends.

Obama had trouble converting support into votes because, like I said, many thought he would win big. Hillary had no trouble because like I said, everybody thought she needed all the help she can get.

Are you really suggesting Hillary won out of pity? Oh my....Excel, I just don't know how to respond to you.

Matt

01-09-2008, 07:38 PM

Here is a site that collects poll results...

NH Dem Primary: http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

SC Dem Primary: http://www.pollster.com/08-SC-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

IA Dem Caucus: http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

NV Dem Caucus: http://www.pollster.com/08-NV-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

Its really close in SC. And that was before Hillary got at least a small bump from NH. SC might not be as much of a lock for Obama as our local political expert, Excel, believes. And Clinton seems to be dominating Nevada (even though the poll is a month old). Seriously, wtf are you talking about Excel? :huh:

Matt

01-09-2008, 07:39 PM

I think Edwards will win South Carolina like he did last time.

:wow: Now that is a bold prediction.

Excel

01-09-2008, 07:40 PM

Are you really suggesting Hillary won out of pity? Oh my....Excel, I just don't know how to respond to you.

Matt, how did you get pity out of the statement?

The Iowa rallied Hillarys supporters while huge lead in polls kept some of Barracks away, again its not thats hard of a concept to understand.

And historical trends my ass, havent these 2 events gotten way more voters then the previous occassions?????

Kelly

01-09-2008, 07:48 PM

Remember people....#2 and #3, get some of these delegates as well......

Golgo-13

01-09-2008, 08:16 PM

Matt

01-09-2008, 08:27 PM

The most dangerous thing for Hilary right now would be if Edwards and Obama come to some sort of agreement, where Edwards lends his supporters to support Barack, and kill Hilary's chance of being nominated.

Well, its incredibly unlikely that Obama will drop out before Super Tuesday (for which he has enough time to rally support in the southern states). But even if he does, its not like he can say "alright, all my votes go to Obama."

Besides, Edwards wants Obama to lose. Losses for Obama are wins for Edwards. If Hillary wins the big four on Super Tuesday, Obama will likely drop out. If Edwards can keep getting some delegates in each state, with Obama gone, one can assume he will absorb the majority of Obama's votes. That could result in Edwards making a late run.

Golgo-13

01-09-2008, 08:47 PM

Well, its incredibly unlikely that Obama will drop out before Super Tuesday (for which he has enough time to rally support in the southern states). But even if he does, its not like he can say "alright, all my votes go to Obama."

Besides, Edwards wants Obama to lose. Losses for Obama are wins for Edwards. If Hillary wins the big four on Super Tuesday, Obama will likely drop out. If Edwards can keep getting some delegates in each state, with Obama gone, one can assume he will absorb the majority of Obama's votes. That could result in Edwards making a late run.

I meant it in the sense that if Edwards and Obama work something out, Edwards can rally his voters being Obama, get Hilary to drop out, thus guaranteeing himself a spot on Obama's ticket. From the way it's going now, it doesn't look good for him (Edwards). If he does wanna get into the white house i'm sure he's thinking, (or his ppl are thinking) of other strategies.

Anguissette1979

01-09-2008, 08:50 PM

Matt

01-09-2008, 08:50 PM

You meant Edwards in that first paragraph, right? :confused:

Indeed I did.

Matt

01-09-2008, 08:53 PM

I meant it in the sense that if Edwards and Obama work something out, Edwards can rally his voters being Obama, get Hilary to drop out, thus guaranteeing himself a spot on Obama's ticket. From the way it's going now, it doesn't look good for him (Edwards). If he does wanna get into the white house i'm sure he's thinking, (or his ppl are thinking) of other strategies.

Edwards' one chance of winning is a big loss for Obama on Super Tuesday. Him staying in the election helps to guarantee that. Your strategy really makes no sense. Plus, I honestly don't think Edwards wants to run for VP with Elizabeth being in the condition she is in. I think it is all or nothing for him at this point.

Excel

01-09-2008, 09:13 PM

that reminds me, is there any word on how his wife is doing? i have heard the condition she is is not curable :csad:

Kelly

01-09-2008, 09:19 PM

Just an interesting side note...

On AOL today they are doing a "If the election were today...." Straw poll....

Clinton 51%
Obama 35%
Edwards 12%

Out of the 50 States
Clinton won all but 6 and they are: Idaho, Iowa, Vermont, Illinois, Nebraska and North Dakota, Obama won these states.

On the Republican side...

McCain 26%
Huckabee 19%
Giuliani 19%
Romney 14%
Paul 13%
Thompson 8%

The states are split all over the place on this one....except that Giuliani only one 2 states New York and Florida, but of course the populations are large enough to boost his percentage. Ron Paul won Alaska....lol

Chris B

01-09-2008, 10:16 PM

This is a bit off topic, but here's a thought that I had recently: does anyone think that it is possible that Hillary and Obama may split the African-American vote down in SC?

Excel

01-09-2008, 10:17 PM

Anythings possible, but id be surprised.

Erzengel

01-09-2008, 10:21 PM

While we are in 2008, I still think while we may be "liberal" in the big cities, I think a majority of America is still sexist and I'd honestly be surprised if Hillary makes it past the primaries let alone the presidency.

Matt

01-09-2008, 10:37 PM

This is a bit off topic, but here's a thought that I had recently: does anyone think that it is possible that Hillary and Obama may split the African-American vote down in SC?

It depends. Half of the African-American electorate is female. They may have more gender loyalty than race loyalty. y'never know.

hippie_hunter

01-09-2008, 10:57 PM

This is a bit off topic, but here's a thought that I had recently: does anyone think that it is possible that Hillary and Obama may split the African-American vote down in SC?

That's one of the three reasons why I think Edwards will win South Carolina:

1. The African-American vote will be split between Obama and Clinton.

2. Edwards' homestate is in South Carolina.

3. Edwards won there last time.

Excel

01-09-2008, 10:57 PM

hippie_hunter

01-09-2008, 11:11 PM

In total, complete seriousness...I cant imagine the urbans african americans not totally rallying for Obama. I can see some upper class blacks maybe like hillary, but the urban folk will vote him. Black people stick together; I know it might sound stupid but it really is true. If its a black guy against a white person....8/10 will go with the black guy.

the hard thing is getting these people to go vote.

You're overlooking the fact that African Americans look fondly towards the Clinton Administration. Hell, Bill Clinton has been stated to be the first "black" President. And a lot of people voting for Hillary Clinton are voting for her because her in the office means that Bill Clinton is back in some capacity.

The urban African Americans will lean more towards Clinton while the upper class African Americans will lean more towards Obama is my guess. Obama can probably get some of the urban African Americans because of his large victory in whitebread Iowa and second place finish in New Hampshire.

Using the "out of 10" thing that you're using. I'm guessing about 6/10 will favor Clinton, 4/10 will favor Obama, literally splitting the African American vote. Which will really favor South Carolina favorite son John Edwards.

Showtime

01-09-2008, 11:54 PM

I am suprised to hear that Bloomberg is sending out feelers to enter the race as a 3rd party candidate this late in the game.

cookiva

01-10-2008, 02:48 AM

The urban African Americans will lean more towards Clinton while the upper class African Americans will lean more towards Obama is my guess. Obama can probably get some of the urban African Americans because of his large victory in whitebread Iowa and second place finish in New Hampshire.

See, im thinking its the other way around. I mean, hell, you have african americans voting Obama because he is black. Excel is doing so. I dont think this is just one person. I think most african americans who are not into politics will do the same.

Using the "out of 10" thing that you're using. I'm guessing about 6/10 will favor Clinton, 4/10 will favor Obama, literally splitting the African American vote. Which will really favor South Carolina favorite son John Edwards.

I hope it does favor him. Edwards needs a boost.

cookiva

01-10-2008, 02:49 AM

Edwards' one chance of winning is a big loss for Obama on Super Tuesday. Him staying in the election helps to guarantee that. Your strategy really makes no sense. Plus, I honestly don't think Edwards wants to run for VP with Elizabeth being in the condition she is in. I think it is all or nothing for him at this point.

Another reason why he wont be VP. Why? Just answer me that question. Why?

Anguissette1979

01-10-2008, 06:55 AM

I am suprised to hear that Bloomberg is sending out feelers to enter the race as a 3rd party candidate this late in the game.

It's early in the game if he'll be entering the general election as an independent ;)

And Excel - Obama was missing a lot of the african american vote for a while because the majority felt that he wasn't "black enough". This article was from nearly a year ago (I have seen newer articles but don't have time to find them before I go to work) http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1584736,00.html I'd be curious to see how this has changed through 2007...

bell110

01-10-2008, 08:29 AM

By the media, Joe Blow American won't care.....

You'd be surprised by the sexism of Joe Blow American. Especially if she ****s up her first term.

This Hillary Clinton thing really pisses me off. Just so I have the media and a lot of fellow hypsters views on this correct; people are saying that Hillary cried because of big, bad Obama hurting her feewings as a way to to connect with women!?!?!? So, let me see if I have this right, she breaks down and cries and perpetuates a stereotype that women have been fighting against for decades, and people, including women, EMBRACE THIS?????? She is willingly reenforcing the idea that women are weak, overly emotional and easily rattled. The way I see it, if it was a publicity stunt and not genuine, she just set women back for years. She just proved what most men have been saying for years. WAY TO GO HILLARY!!! But what's truly sad, is that women bought into this. So, is Hillary bad for perpetuating this negative stereotype on women? Or are the women who were eating right out of her hands bad? Either way, this whole situation is sad for women. I know women who are disgusted at this whole thing.

But here's the other thing...

If it wasn't a publicity stunt. If it wasn't staged for the media. If she really just cracked on television and broke down, we have a problem. Good leaders don't cry, whine and break when things don't go their way. We're asking a crybaby to lead one of the most powerful nations on Earth? Whether she cried, had a tantrum, threw and aide through a window or downed a pint of Scotch to ease her troubles, she should have done it behind closed doors. I was in the Army and if I saw my platoon leader crack in anyway, I would have been awfully scared for my friends and I. Leaders have to check emotion. If Hillary can't do that, then she isn't fit to lead a marching band through a parade route, let alone the United States of America. Obama beats her in Iowa and she cracks? What the hell would happen if a 9/11 or Katrina occurred while she were in office? Get in the fetal position and hug her knees?

Jesus, whether this crying fit was real or not, either way, I think it looks bad and she may have ended up screwing herself over in the long run. We'll just have to wait and see.

I just saw the clip last night. It wasn't as bad as I thought. I didn't see any tears and she didn't choke up, she just took a softer tone. But, if this happens before every election, it will get old fast.

While we are in 2008, I still think while we may be "liberal" in the big cities, I think a majority of America is still sexist and I'd honestly be surprised if Hillary makes it past the primaries let alone the presidency.

She could win the presidency. If she does, she'll be scrutinized heavily.

Kelly

01-10-2008, 09:07 AM

@Bell, I guess I should have stated it alittle differently....."Joe Blow American" won't care, because he doesn't watch the news.......*winks*

Prison Mike

01-10-2008, 09:39 AM

@Bell, I guess I should have stated it alittle differently....."Joe Blow American" won't care, because he doesn't watch the news.......*winks*

yeah, instead he watches football, NASCAR, and is drinking beer at 9 in the morning.

Erzengel

01-10-2008, 09:42 AM

She could win the presidency. If she does, she'll be scrutinized heavily.
Any president runs the chance of being scrutinized. Everything Bush does for the past 8 years have been heavily scrutinized.

Honestly, I think our country will see a minority president before a female president.

Matt

01-10-2008, 09:49 AM

Another reason why he wont be VP. Why? Just answer me that question. Why?

Because his wife is dying and is it really worth spending 7 of her last months on the road, nonstop, campaigning for the number 2 spot?

Matt

01-10-2008, 09:55 AM

I am suprised to hear that Bloomberg is sending out feelers to enter the race as a 3rd party candidate this late in the game.

He'd be an independent so he can wait until after primaries. I hope he runs.

Excel

01-10-2008, 10:09 AM

Excel

01-10-2008, 10:09 AM

Because his wife is dying and is it really worth spending 7 of her last months on the road, nonstop, campaigning for the number 2 spot?

See that for me is an upspoken issue...can we really afford to have a president dealing with the death of his wife while in office?

Matt

01-10-2008, 10:12 AM

Now that Barrack has a real chance, blacks will line up for him I feel. CNN was saying that though Clinton lead insouth carolina, barack is "surging" now in January due the blacks changing their mind.

You assume too much. Just because you do, does not all voters make up their mind on skin color. Bill Clinton did a lot of black people and if you think that legacy will not help his wife, you are very naive.

Matt

01-10-2008, 10:13 AM

See that for me is an upspoken issue...can we really afford to have a president dealing with the death of his wife while in office?

She'll be dead before he enters office.

The Senator

01-10-2008, 10:19 AM

Now that Barrack has a real chance, blacks will line up for him I feel. CNN was saying that though Clinton lead insouth carolina, barack is "surging" now in January due the blacks changing their mind.

I think there's a good chance that more African Americans will support Obama in South Carolina than anywhere else. Roughly half of South Carolina's Democratic voters are African American, and recent polls show that he is gaining a lot more black support than he had when he first entered the race. However, I don't think Obama will win the primary because of the African American vote. He'll have to convince Clinton supporters in states like Nevada and New Jersey that he's worth a damn. He needs to focus on older voters and independents, too. Race isn't going to decide this for him, as much as pollsters think it will.

Excel

01-10-2008, 10:32 AM

She'll be dead before he enters office.

:wow: Why is he even running???

Matt

01-10-2008, 10:40 AM

:wow: Why is he even running???

Because she wants him to. She believes he should be president. I don't buy much in politics, but I really think John and Elizabeth are inlove and I think she really does believe in his message. But for him, the number 2 spot just won't be worth it. He can make a difference as president. Do great things on his wife's behalf. As VP he will be a figure head. Thats not worth the last few months he has with her.

hippie_hunter

01-10-2008, 12:36 PM

I think there's a good chance that more African Americans will support Obama in South Carolina than anywhere else. Roughly half of South Carolina's Democratic voters are African American, and recent polls show that he is gaining a lot more black support than he had when he first entered the race. However, I don't think Obama will win the primary because of the African American vote. He'll have to convince Clinton supporters in states like Nevada and New Jersey that he's worth a damn. He needs to focus on older voters and independents, too. Race isn't going to decide this for him, as much as pollsters think it will.
Yeah, the African-American vote isn't going to decide this race. They'll most likely be split between Clinton and Obama. Obama is really going to need the independents in this race because the core Democrats will be voting for Edwards and Clinton this time around.

Venom'sDad

01-10-2008, 12:47 PM

Yeah, the African-American vote isn't going to decide this race. They'll most likely be split between Clinton and Obama. Obama is really going to need the independents in this race because the core Democrats will be voting for Edwards and Clinton this time around.

The African American population is less than 15% of the country. 12% voting age. Half of that apathetic, so what percentage will actually vote. So the candidates will split whats left... not much of an affect. BTW, that only in majority of southern states, Los Angeles, and east coast/midwest cities.

So unless one candidate receives at least 75% of the African American vote, it wont make a difference.

EdRyder

01-10-2008, 12:54 PM

^ For the past year and a half every poll was going for Clinton.
Look at the wierdness,..
A CNN/WMUR registered Dem poll for NH had Obama up (37-32).
Compared to an all network registered Dem entrance poll for Iowa which had them tied (31-32)

hippie_hunter

01-10-2008, 01:04 PM

The African American population is less than 15% of the country. 12% voting age. Half of that apathetic, so what percentage will actually vote. So the candidates will split whats left... not much of an affect. BTW, that only in majority of southern states, Los Angeles, and east coast/midwest cities.

So unless one candidate receives at least 75% of the African American vote, it wont make a difference.
I meant in South Carolina, not the entire country.

The African-American vote sorta screwed themselves nationally by being overwhelmingly Democratic. Republicans aren't going to try and waste their efforts to woo a group of people that will not vote for them regardless (even if an African American Republican ran). As a result, the Democrats just take advantage of them for numbers.

Just like the union/labor vote and soon to be evangellical vote.

Venom'sDad

01-10-2008, 02:28 PM

I meant in South Carolina, not the entire country.

Yeah, I know, i was giving a much larger picture; however, my statement, "So unless one candidate receives at least 75% of the African American vote, it wont make a difference" is specific to your statement about South Carolina. If split, it's minusculed.

Malice

01-10-2008, 02:30 PM

I am going to create a game of this.

You can base what you think on fact, but lets have a Nostradamus moment here. It will be interesting to look back 6 months, and see if we were even close. REMEMBER, dont pick who you WANT to win, but who you THINK will win.

I, the great Malice, prognosticate the following:
1) the Democratic Nomination will goto Obama
2) the Republican Nomination will goto McCain
3) In the end, after a hard fought battle of you such, I rule, Obama will win out.

Lets see if I am actually even close.......

cookiva

01-10-2008, 02:35 PM

1 - I feel that Obama will win the Democratic nomination, using Edward's votes to swing him past Clinton.

2 - Romney and McCain duke it out past super tuesday, with Romney beating McCain

3 - Bloomberg enters the race, after McCain drops out, knowing that he can take the moderate central vote away from the far swinging candidates.

4 - Obama wins the election, but in a tight race. Bloomberg takes away more votes from both sides than expected, and ends up around 20% of the votes. Romney is seen as arrogant, while Obama appeals to more than just the college crowd.

5 - The Hype vote, however, goes to Asteroid Man. Matt declares a recount, putting the hype into a state of online depression it has never seen. In the end, we find out it was rigged, and Hippie Hunter actually won by 10 votes (389 - 379) over Spoons.

hippie_hunter

01-10-2008, 02:37 PM

Yeah, I know, i was giving a much larger picture; however, my statement, "So unless one candidate receives at least 75% of the African American vote, it wont make a difference" is specific to your statement about South Carolina. If split, it's miniscued.

But the African American vote in South Carolina is very significant. However if split, it will be exactly like you say it will be minusculed.

Leading towards an Edwards victory.

cookiva

01-10-2008, 02:38 PM

Edwards needs SC, especially with the unions in Nevada backing Obama with such vigor.

hippie_hunter

01-10-2008, 02:41 PM

The union vote is incredibly idiotic. They'll go for which ever Democratic candidate they think will win (in this case Obama), not the candidate (Republican or Democrat) that would actually represent them properly (in this case Edwards).

No wonder why they're politically impotent in national elections :o

cookiva

01-10-2008, 02:43 PM

I know. If they actually listened to the candidates (just like the rest of america) then they would know that Edwards is their key. Thats their guy!

bell110

01-10-2008, 02:56 PM

I think Hillary will take the Dems barely.

I think McCain will win a hard fought fight for the Reps

I think Paul will run for the Libertarian ticket after the primaries.

The crystal ball gets kind of foggy after this point, but I'll say McCain will win the presidency.

Malice

01-10-2008, 02:58 PM

This is interesting to see, I am fascinated as to all these predictions...

Venom'sDad

01-10-2008, 03:10 PM

OK... not quite the prognosticator, but I'll play.....I have two btw. ;)

R - RudyG
D - hellary

Winner - RudyG

for the record... I HATE EM BOTH

R - RudyG
D - hellary
I - Bloomberg

Winner - hellary

for the record... I HATE EM ALL

Chris B

01-10-2008, 03:22 PM

The union vote is incredibly idiotic. They'll go for which ever Democratic candidate they think will win (in this case Obama), not the candidate (Republican or Democrat) that would actually represent them properly (in this case Edwards).

I agree. One thing that I'm surprised that the NV labor unions didn't realize was that endorsing Edwards probably would've given him the boost he needed to win NV.

Kelly

01-10-2008, 04:44 PM

hippie_hunter

01-10-2008, 06:37 PM

Democratic Party
Nominee: Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination due to winning delegate rich states New York, Massachusetts, California, New Jersey, Texas, Ohio, and Virginia.

Running Mate: Wesley Clark due to his endorsement of her.

Republican Party
Nominee: Far too close to call

South Carolina: Match-up between John McCain and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee needs to win this state or else his campaign is over.

Michigan: John McCain wins Michigan due to Romney's second place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain's boost from New Hampshire and recent national polls, and the fact that Michigan is another open primary, conservative Democrats and independent voters will vote for McCain over Romney. What makes it worse is that the Democratic National Committee stripped Michigan of its delegates in the Democratic National Convention thereby making voting at the Democratic primaries completely pointless. Voters who would have voted there will probably end up voting in the Republican primaries instead, a huge advantage for McCain.

Florida: Match-up between John McCain, Mike Huckabee, and Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani needs this state or else his campaing is over due to his lack of campaigning in early primary states.

Super Tuesday: Rudy Giuliani if he wins Florida. If he wins Florida he'll do well in Super Tuesday due to delegate rich states such as New York, California, Illinois, and others. If he does well enough in Super Tuesday, he'll most likely be the Republican nominee. If he doesn't it'll be too close to call.

Running Mate: Joe Lieberman if John McCain wins the nomination due to his endorsement, personal relationship between the two, and the fact that they have worked very well together in the past.

Mike Huckabee if Rudy Giuliani wins the nomination to balance the ticket due to his perception as a "northern liberal." He needs a Southern, evangellical conservative like Huckabee to do so.

No idea if Mike Huckabee or Mitt Romney on their prospective running mates. Huckabee will joke around though by "asking" Stephen Colbert.

Others
Michael Bloomberg will enter the race if Rudy Giluiani or John McCain do not win the nomination.

The Senator

01-10-2008, 07:27 PM

THE DEMOCRATS

-The Democratic nominee will be Hillary Clinton. She will come out on top in Nevada, and will then carry several big states on Super Tuesday.

-Her running mate will be Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana. The two have been good friends in the Senate, and Bill Clinton has been a big fan of Bayh for many years. Plus, he's from a red state, and polling data which surveyed Indianans in November suggests that Hillary will win the state with the inclusion of Bayh as her VP.

THE REPUBLICANS

-John McCain will barely win Michigan and South Carolina, and his subsequent momentum will carry him through to the very end to prevail as the Republican nominee.

-McCain will choose Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota as his running mate. Pawlenty is the young governor of a swing state, and could very well help McCain's chances of winning Minnesota's independent voters.

THE END RESULT

I believe Hillary Clinton will win in the end. My predicted electoral vote is 305-233, with Hillary winning swing states Ohio, Virginia, Arkansas and Missouri. Even though she'll choose Bayh as her VP with the hopes of carrying Indiana, she won't carry the state. I also think she'll lose New Hampshire, since its independents largely voted for McCain in the primary (I don't see why that would change in the general).

Anguissette1979

01-10-2008, 07:35 PM

The Senator

01-11-2008, 12:37 PM

Silly Dennis Kucinich wants a recount.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/11/kucinich-calls-for-new-hampshire-recount/

hippie_hunter

01-11-2008, 12:40 PM

Whatever Kucinich, I swear the majority of people around the world in Western countries who call for a recount are such sore losers :o

SentinelMind

01-14-2008, 07:25 PM

What do you think will happen?

EDIT: Actually, its a primary...I confused this with Nevada...

The Senator

01-14-2008, 07:30 PM

What do you think will happen?

McCain will probably win by a few points. Romney will come in second, and Huckabee will finish third.

Romney will say he'll go on to win the gold even though he won the silver (despite that fact that he was all but a shoe-in to win this state a few weeks ago) and will stay in the race, while John McCain will get enough momentum to carry him to victory in South Carolina next week.

strikezone89

01-14-2008, 08:54 PM

Obama needs to win

The Senator

01-14-2008, 09:34 PM

Obama needs to win

Wrong party.

hippie_hunter

01-14-2008, 10:24 PM

This is going to be close but I'm starting to think that McCain will end up winning.

Conservative Democrats and independents will obviously vote for McCain because not only is Michigan an open primary, the Democrats f**ked the state over and took away their delegates. Voting in the Democratic Michigan primary is completely pointless because of that.

hippie_hunter

01-14-2008, 10:43 PM

I'm bumping this thread due to tommorrow's primary.

I predict that John McCain will win Michigan.

Excel

01-15-2008, 08:10 PM

And....Romneys winning.

cookiva

01-15-2008, 08:54 PM

Romney? He is up by 10 points over McCain right now. I kind of like the way that the Republican primaries are going. No clear winner, meaning that the conservatives dont know what/who they want. Do they want a evangelical again? Do they want a much more moderate candidate? Do they want a douche bag (Romney)?

Looking good there....

The Senator

01-15-2008, 09:52 PM

hippie_hunter

01-15-2008, 09:54 PM

I'd rather have Romney as the Republican nominee. He'll almost hand the Democrats the White House. If you think Kerry was bad when it came to flip-flopping... this guy has to be twice as bad.

Maybe it's a Massachusetts thing?

I'd agree that Romney is the Hillary Clinton of the Republicans. I'm actually surprised that Romney won by such a large margin. I thought McCain was going to win this one.

cookiva

01-15-2008, 09:54 PM

Same here. 9 points right now is alot....

Apollo

01-15-2008, 10:00 PM

Obama needs to win

obama and edwards didn't do this one, their supports voted uncommitted.

cookiva

01-15-2008, 10:02 PM

.....uh?

Michigan was a republican primary. Thats why Obama and Edwards didnt run, just like all other democrats.

Uncommitted doesn't mean that....

The Senator

01-15-2008, 10:05 PM

.....uh?

Michigan was a republican primary. Thats why Obama and Edwards didnt run, just like all other democrats.

Uncommitted doesn't mean that....

Actually, Michigan's primary was for both parties. But because the state went against the DNC's wishes and held their primary two weeks ahead of when they were suppose to, the DNC removed Michigan's delegates from the nominating convention.

Hillary and Dodd were the only two Democrats whose names appeared on the ballot.

cookiva

01-15-2008, 10:23 PM

Oh, well it still doesnt change the fact that it was called teh Michigan Republican Primary by all news outlets...

Venom'sDad

01-15-2008, 10:38 PM

I think we all knew, at least some of us did, that Romney would win..... and I do think it is may be a Massachusettes thing, we can agree on that.

cookiva

01-15-2008, 10:40 PM

I thought that Romney would win, but not by as big of a margin as he had...

Venom'sDad

01-15-2008, 10:47 PM

I thought that Romney would win, but not by as big of a margin as he had...

I agree with that.... I thought he would win by 4 or 5 percent.

hippie_hunter

01-15-2008, 11:55 PM

I think we all knew, at least some of us did, that Romney would win..... and I do think it is may be a Massachusettes thing, we can agree on that.

I thought that McCain had a clear advantage in Michigan due to independents and Democrats not going to the Democratic primary and would vote for him instead.

The Senator

01-15-2008, 11:58 PM

I thought that McCain had a clear advantage in Michigan due to independents and Democrats not going to the Democratic primary and would vote for him instead.

Same here. I could have seen Romney winning by two or three percentage points, but nine caught me completely off guard. I wonder what this means for the national Republican contest?

cookiva

01-15-2008, 11:59 PM

I thought that McCain had a clear advantage in Michigan due to independents and Democrats not going to the Democratic primary and would vote for him instead.

I thought that for awhile, but realized the real strong roots the Romney family has there....

hippie_hunter

01-16-2008, 12:23 AM

Same here. I could have seen Romney winning by two or three percentage points, but nine caught me completely off guard. I wonder what this means for the national Republican contest?
I don't think it'll mean too much. Sure it gave Romney a much needed boost, but I think that McCain will end up winning South Carolina and Nevada.

Matt

01-16-2008, 08:54 AM

Huge win for Romney. This Republican primary just gets more and more interesting.

Super_Ludacris

01-16-2008, 09:02 AM

Obama needs to win

Sweet Jesus if this doesnt some up our country's perception of politics, I dont know what does.

Intresting win for Romney, the Republican race is tighter than the white man's wallet, figurativley and somewhat appropriately speaking....

Matt

01-16-2008, 10:14 AM

Sweet Jesus if this doesnt some up our country's perception of politics, I dont know what does.

I don't understand why everyone thinks Obama will go into the white house and suddenly everyone around the world will join hands and start singing. The fact of the matter is, if Obama were to win...he is destined to failure as he cannot live up to the promise of change he has based his campaign on. Hell, no president could. Its just not realistic. Look how fast the Democratic Congress' approval rating dropped. They ran a campaign on reform...and then when they took office, they didn't really reform anything. Their approval was nearly as low as Bush's in no time. The same will happen to Obama as he is building up way too much hype that he cannot live up to.

Intresting win for Romney, the Republican race is tighter than the white man's wallet, figurativley and somewhat appropriately speaking....

Haha, analogy of the day :up:

Super_Ludacris

01-16-2008, 10:56 AM

I don't understand why everyone thinks Obama will go into the white house and suddenly everyone around the world will join hands and start singing. The fact of the matter is, if Obama were to win...he is destined to failure as he cannot live up to the promise of change he has based his campaign on. Hell, no president could. Its just not realistic. Look how fast the Democratic Congress' approval rating dropped. They ran a campaign on reform...and then when they took office, they didn't really reform anything. Their approval was nearly as low as Bush's in no time. The same will happen to Obama as he is building up way too much hype that he cannot live up to.

Haha, analogy of the day :up:

Barack's my dude and I think he has the potential to be a good leader but I need that confidence to show forth. Until that " I would bomb Pakistan" statement, I was cool with him, now I need to be sure he knows what he means oir doesnt.
Having said that, I do hope for him to be that next step in the progession of American Politics that he promises and comes across with confidence of bringing. He may not promise everything but hey its better than this administration right? Im not too suprised by the approval drop, I mean Polowski's a polarising figure and I guess the party still feels they need one of them in the office to really take charge. Im holding out hope for Barak but then again Im voting for all the wrong reasons.

Venom'sDad

01-16-2008, 11:06 AM

I thought that McCain had a clear advantage in Michigan due to independents and Democrats not going to the Democratic primary and would vote for him instead.

Yeah I know, and that's why many felt he would win. However, those Independents who voted for a Republican candidate are now registered as Republicans. Most Independents want to maintain their status or classification as Independents voters; the reason why so many voted Uncommitted and retain their Independent status.

With that said(wts), I know, that many Independent want to retain that status for the General election; so, it was inevitable that McCain wouldn't be able to secure the number of Independents that he hope for. Also, keep in mind, because most Independents are Moderates, some are Liberals and Conservatives or just Moderates who tilt more to the Left/Right. So there was always no guarantee that McCain would court the majority of them.

Super_Ludacris

01-16-2008, 11:09 AM

That and McCain doesnt really have clear cut policies. I mean my damn posts make more sense that him sometime and that's saying something.

rdh007

01-16-2008, 03:31 PM

Heeeey, he's on the Straight Talk Express, bub. He's Straight Talkin' You. He's going to be honest and straightforward and bring the Straight Talk.

StorminNorman

01-16-2008, 11:17 PM

I...did not know there was a Politics thread until today :shocked:

Hillary will win the Democrat nomination.

The Republican nomination is impossible to call:

If Romney takes Nevada and does well in South Carolina - he may squeeze in and win Florida. Delivering Super Tuesday.

If McCain takes Nevada and South Carolina - he will win Florida and the nomination.

Huckabee needs a Romney win in Nevada and a victory in South Carolina - pushing him to a Florida win. He needs Rudy to take states like California and New York and New Jersey and McCain to lose a few other states to either Rudy or Romney.

Rudy needs Florida, anyone but McCain to take South Carolina and Romney to take Nevada. Even then he will need a ton of support.

Florida will be the biggest primary for the year. While I think Romney and McCain can survive with out it - Guiliani and Huckabee live or die there.

Bloomsberg will run if Romney or Huckabee win. Should this happen - he will take more votes away from Clinton than he will the GOP.

StorminNorman

01-19-2008, 04:31 PM

After today the next big step in the race for the Republican race will be Florida - a state that can end several campaigns (Rudy, Huckabee) and also make a candidate the over-whelming favorite (Romney, McCain).

Being from the state, having been very active in the 2004 election and now the 2008, I am incredibly curious to see what this comes down to. Florida, politically, may be the most diverse in the nation: North-West Florida resembles Alabama, North-East Florida still conservative, but not as Evangelical, Central Florida more moderate - though still very "Republican" and South Florida with a heavy Jewish and Latino population, the most liberal part of the state.

The economy in Florida is strong compared to most of these recent states, will that hurt Romney? Especially when Romney will try to paint himself as the Economy Candidate.

Huckabee will need a high turnout in North Florida - and the hope that his more liberal views are hidden by his Baptist background.

McCain will try to capture the rather-large veteran vote and could do very well for himself.

Guillani has tied his campaigns life with Florida. He has spent weeks and weeks here. So far it hasn't paid off in the polls. Will his gamble pay off?

The Democrats Primary isn't nearly the Soap Opera the Republican Primary is.

Clinton has this state with an average of a 19 point advantage according to Real Clear Politics.

Obama's lead in South Carolina should stick, could that lend itself to a surge in Florida? I...really don't think so. But others more in touch with the Democrat mindset in Florida may have more to add.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 04:39 PM

Prediction:

McCain wins, and Romney comes in second.

Giuliani will be in third place. I don't know if he'll be able to survive any loss here. My guess is, if he's trounced like he has been in the other early states, he may very well drop out here and spare himself the embarrassment of a crushing Super Tuesday defeat.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 04:45 PM

McCain wins, Giuliani in second, Romney in third, Huckabee in fourth because of a loss in South Carolina and Fred Thompson hurting him.

StorminNorman

01-19-2008, 04:51 PM

Giuliani will not have a campaign if he gets anything lower than first place.

I will not make a prediction on who will win until it gets closer. I do know that I will be spending most of my free time on Romney's campaign here in Orlando.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:09 PM

Voting has closed and projections are currently showing John McCain and Mike Huckabee in a close race for first/second and Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson in a close race for third/fourth.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:11 PM

Also Duncan Hunter dropped out of the race.

Byrd Man

01-19-2008, 06:12 PM

I've been hearing it's close. Maybe my vote will actually count this time. :up:

The Senator

01-19-2008, 06:17 PM

The Senator

01-19-2008, 06:24 PM

Also Duncan Hunter dropped out of the race.

How sad.

:dry:

MaskedManJRK

01-19-2008, 06:27 PM

McCain I could live with. As long as Huckabee doesn't win, I'm fine. :up:

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:28 PM

Ooh, with 21 votes counted, John McCain leads with 8, Ron Paul is second with 7, and Mike Huckabee is third with 6.

These people really need to wait until at least 1% of the votes are counted to talk about this.

At least it's now updated with McCain leading with 1,055, followed by Huckabee with 886, Romney with 608, Thompson with 364, Paul with 124, and Giuliani with 116.

Byrd Man

01-19-2008, 06:29 PM

At least it's now updated with McCain leading with 1,055, followed by Huckabee with 886, Romney with 608, Thompson with 364, Paul with 124, and Giuliani with 116.

Damn. I thought my vote might have counted. :csad:

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:30 PM

5% reporting:

McCain - 36%
Huckabee - 28%
Romney - 16%
Thompson - 13%
Paul - 4%
Giuliani 3%

The Senator

01-19-2008, 06:31 PM

McCain I could live with. As long as Huckabee doesn't win, I'm fine. :up:

Agreed. McCain, in my opinion, is the only acceptable Republican currently running.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:31 PM

Damn. I thought my vote might have counted. :csad:

Who did you vote for?

Byrd Man

01-19-2008, 06:32 PM

Who did you vote for?

John "Holy Moley" McCain

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 06:33 PM

John "Holy Moley" McCain

From the looks of it, your vote did count. It's still pretty close between McCain and Huckabee because less than 1% of precincts have reported.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 07:01 PM

Thank you, Professor Thompson, for your wonderful lecture on the Constitution and what democracy means. Will this be on the test?

I hope he's dropping out...

The Senator

01-19-2008, 07:06 PM

Nope! Just eight minutes of mumbo-jumbo, and nothing else.

Fred Thompson is the laziest, most stubborn candidate ever.

MaskedManJRK

01-19-2008, 07:13 PM

Thank you, Professor Thompson, for your wonderful lecture on the Constitution and what democracy means. Will this be on the test?

I hope he's dropping out...

I didn't catch it--what did he say?

cookiva

01-19-2008, 07:17 PM

If Giuliani doesnt win, he is dead....

The Senator

01-19-2008, 07:23 PM

I didn't catch it--what did he say?

He spent roughly eight minutes talking about the constitution and why our country was founded. Then he discussed why Reagan was awesome, why big government is bad bad bad, and why his supporters should continue to fight 'the good fight.'

Rumor had it he was dropping out; instead, he just babbled on and on, not indicating what his plans were. No announcement that he was leaving the race, no announcement that he was heading on to Florida... it was just a long, muddled mess of confusion, just like his campaign.

Byrd Man

01-19-2008, 07:26 PM

he just babbled on and on, not indicating what his plans were. No announcement that he was leaving the race, no announcement that he was heading on to Florida... it was just a long, muddled mess of confusion.

Sounds like he's trying to appeal to the gray hairs in Florida.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 07:28 PM

UGH...

The goddamn Olympic metaphors need to stop.

Chris B

01-19-2008, 09:00 PM

Looks like John McCain has won it.

\S/JcDc\S/

01-19-2008, 09:03 PM

Very close race. A lot of people pegged Huckabee for third in this one :o

rdh007

01-19-2008, 09:05 PM

That was before Romney decided to win Nevada.

teseract

01-19-2008, 09:08 PM

Looks like John McCain has won it.

Excellent

ShadowBoxing

01-19-2008, 09:10 PM

Looks like the final may be 30% (29% depending on the station) for Huck, and 33% for McCain. I don't know that McCain can keep this momentum going as he's shown pretty poorly out west.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 09:13 PM

Looks like the final may be 30% (29% depending on the station) for Huck, and 33% for McCain. I don't know that McCain can keep this momentum going as he's shown pretty poorly out west.

I think he'll win Florida. He's winning New York and California, and tied with Rudy in New Jersey. All four of those states are rich in delegates, and if he wins those... he'll be on track to win this whole thing, which I think he will do.

It also falls in line with Republican traditions. The perceived front runner, despite any downturns his campaign may face, always wins the nomination. It happened from Nixon's first bid onward, and I don't see why it would change this time, especially following his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

\S/JcDc\S/

01-19-2008, 09:17 PM

So everyone seems to think Mccain will beat out Giuliani for Florida now?

The Senator

01-19-2008, 09:20 PM

So everyone seems to think Mccain will beat out Giuliani for Florida now?

Yes. Giuliani royally screwed himself over by not participating in at least one early state. Now, McCain and Romney have overshadowed him the week before a contest in a state which should have been handed to him. His campaign has become a real mess-- in a sense, worse than Thompson's, which is like comparing the Titanic to the Hindenburg.

Chris B

01-19-2008, 09:23 PM

I really do think that if he is the Republican nominee, John McCain will be the next President.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 09:25 PM

I really do think that if he is the Republican nominee, John McCain will be the next President.

And I wouldn't have a huge problem with him, to be honest. I will vote for the Democrat; but I could live with a McCain presidency, especially since-- and this is a rumor spreading around this great city-- he'd only be in it for one term.

ShadowBoxing

01-19-2008, 09:25 PM

I think he'll win Florida. He's winning New York and California, and tied with Rudy in New Jersey. All four of those states are rich in delegates, and if he wins those... he'll be on track to win this whole thing, which I think he will do.

It also falls in line with Republican traditions. The perceived front runner, despite any downturns his campaign may face, always wins the nomination. It happened from Nixon's first bid onward, and I don't see why it would change this time, especially following his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
That's just it, he isn't the perceived frontrunner. He's only won two states, to Romney's three and Huckabee's one, and he is third in the amount of delegates he's picked up. McCain, Romney and Guiliani are pretty much statistically tied with him in Florida. It's seems like the Republican party actually has no perceived frontrunner at this point.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 09:27 PM

That's just it, he isn't the perceived frontrunner. He's only won two states, to Romney's three and Huckabee's one, and he is third in the amount of delegates he's picked up. McCain, Romney and Guiliani are pretty much statistically tied with him in Florida. It's seems like the Republican party actually has no perceived frontrunner at this point.

I'm talking about way back. In 2005 and through March of 2007, he was the perceived frontrunner. Then his campaign almost imploded.

The same thing happened to Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000. They've all had big challenges, and a resulting cluster**** to win the nomination... and the frontrunner always came back for a win. Look at the history of the Republican Party, from Nixon in 1968 onwards. It's quite fascinating.

Chris B

01-19-2008, 09:27 PM

And I wouldn't have a huge problem with him, to be honest. I will vote for the Democrat; but I could live with a McCain presidency, especially since-- and this is a rumor spreading around this great city-- he'd only be in it for one term.

I wouldn't really be against it either. I'm an Edwards supporter who isn't that enthused with either Hillary or Obama. The way things are going, I'd rather wait until 2012 where Mark Warner would hopefully be elected President.

\S/JcDc\S/

01-19-2008, 09:28 PM

Maybe Rudy Giuliani, Ron Paul, John Edwards, Fred Thompson...

The question is whom and when (including what state they end in) ? I'm sure many wonder about Giuliani if he can't win Florida for example :o

At what point do they reach a primary and say "Ok there is no chance, time to bow out gracefully." ?

One more question as well:

What kind of gain/loss do you think the remaining candidates will have from particular dropouts?

Example: If Thompson is out, does Huckabee gain support? Or Edwards drops out, does Obama or Hilary gain support? ETC...

The Senator

01-19-2008, 09:30 PM

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 09:38 PM

93% reporting:

McCain - 33% (WINNER)
Huckabee - 30%
Thompson - 16%
Romney - 15%
Paul - 4%
Giuliani - 2%

\S/JcDc\S/

01-19-2008, 09:44 PM

Also added this question:

What kind of gain/loss do you think the remaining candidates will have from particular dropouts?

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 09:46 PM

That's just it, he isn't the perceived frontrunner. He's only won two states, to Romney's three and Huckabee's one, and he is third in the amount of delegates he's picked up. McCain, Romney and Guiliani are pretty much statistically tied with him in Florida. It's seems like the Republican party actually has no perceived frontrunner at this point.

Huckabee is out of the frontrunner status. South Carolina was his make it or break it state. He's done.

Romney's victories in Wyoming and Nevada were overshadowed by McCain's victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The only major victory Romney has had was in Michigan.

Giuliani has pretty much killed his campaign by just concentrating on Florida. If he doesn't win this state, he'll end up like Huckabee which is now very likely to happen. He also relied too much on 9-11. He tried some other tactics but it was too little, too late.

So right now the frontrunner is McCain with serious competition from Romney.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 09:50 PM

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 09:52 PM

Also added this question:

What kind of gain/loss do you think the remaining candidates will have from particular dropouts?

Huckabee would have gained some massive support if Thompson dropped out earlier. But it's too late now that he's lost South Carolina, it was his make it or break it state.

McCain would likely benefit the most from a Giuliani drop out, followed by Romney.

Obama would benefit from Edwards and Kucinich dropping out.

The Senator

01-19-2008, 10:12 PM

Kucinich won't drop out. He'll be in it until the very end, just like last time.

rdh007

01-19-2008, 10:15 PM

Fred Thompson-- if not tomorrow, then after Florida.

John Edwards-- after Super Tuesday

Ron Paul-- He's in it until the convention.

Rudy Giuliani-- He may very well be out after Florida if he does poorly. If not, he'll be out after Super Tuesday, especially if he's destroyed, which I think will happen.
Agreed. Kucinich is in until the convention, though it matters not.

Kucinich won't drop out. He'll be in it until the very end, just like last time.

It'd probably help if I didn't drink before browsing the Hype. My bad.

ShadowBoxing

01-19-2008, 10:16 PM

Giuliani has pretty much killed his campaign by just concentrating on Florida. If he doesn't win this state, he'll end up like Huckabee which is now very likely to happen. He also relied too much on 9-11. He tried some other tactics but it was too little, too late.

I dunno, a lot of analysts are now saying many of the people who would've voted for Romney and Huck are now predicted to shift to Guiliani. The funny thing is if Guiliani wins Florida hypothetically that will fragment the party quite a bit.

hippie_hunter

01-19-2008, 10:44 PM

Kucinich won't drop out. He'll be in it until the very end, just like last time.

He probably won't but Obama would benefit from having Kucinich's few supporters jumping ship to him.

They aren't going to go to Clinton.

teseract

01-19-2008, 11:03 PM

Huckabee is out of the frontrunner status. South Carolina was his make it or break it state. He's done.

Wonderfull, best news of the day!

The Senator

01-19-2008, 11:06 PM

Wonderfull, best news of the day!

Best news of the day?? Best news of the century!

:oldrazz:

StorminNorman

01-20-2008, 02:40 AM

I dunno, a lot of analysts are now saying many of the people who would've voted for Romney and Huck are now predicted to shift to Guiliani. The funny thing is if Guiliani wins Florida hypothetically that will fragment the party quite a bit.

Huckabee supporters will probably shift to Guiliani. I don't see Romney losing support after his victory in Nevada. If anything - his numbers may inch slightly up.

The key, IMO, is Thompson voters. If Thompson leaves the race - I think Romney and McCain benefit. Thompson will probably back McCain leading many voters to that side. IMO, though, most Thompson supporters care more about issues than candidates (which is why there were backing an obvious dud) and will probably back Romney given his stance on Immigration.

McCain-Kennedy may end up hurting the Senator.

This is, please understand, not based off of personal bias (un-like a lot of my Romney remarks I will (and have) make. This comes from interaction with Thompson supporters who whole Sen. Thompson their "safe" vote and Romney their secondary candidate. I would estimate of the Thompson supporters I have met in person and online (some of them my own parents) - this seemed to be a very popular stand.

Memphis Slim

01-20-2008, 06:49 AM

Huckabee is out of the frontrunner status. South Carolina was his make it or break it state. He's done.

Romney's victories in Wyoming and Nevada were overshadowed by McCain's victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina. The only major victory Romney has had was in Michigan.

Giuliani has pretty much killed his campaign by just concentrating on Florida. If he doesn't win this state, he'll end up like Huckabee which is now very likely to happen. He also relied too much on 9-11. He tried some other tactics but it was too little, too late.

So right now the frontrunner is McCain with serious competition from Romney.

Huck's not necessarily done .....he's still got the second most delegates over-all then McCain. McCain is still in 3rd place.

hippie_hunter

01-20-2008, 10:41 AM

Huck's not necessarily done .....he's still got the second most delegates over-all then McCain. McCain is still in 3rd place.
Huckabee needed to win South Carolina to get much needed momentum and money. Now he won't get either. He'll be seen as a one trick pony who has only pandered to the evangellicals who ignored everyone else. He won't win any remaining states.

StorminNorman

01-20-2008, 12:05 PM

Huck's not necessarily done .....he's still got the second most delegates over-all then McCain. McCain is still in 3rd place.

Huckabee is done.

It has little to do with the whopping twenty something delegates he has - his future depended on him closing the South to Romney and McCain and he failed.

teseract

01-20-2008, 01:19 PM

Huckabee is done.

It has little to do with the whopping twenty something delegates he has - his future depended on him closing the South to Romney and McCain and he failed.
And that's good, Mc Cain is acceptable, even Ron Paul is acceptable, Romney, I don't know but I know one thing. Huckabee is Unacceptable! As long as he is out things are good.

The Senator

01-20-2008, 02:58 PM

I think McCain and Romney are the two Presidents who would be tolerable. I dislike both of them for their political views, but I could tolerate those two for a few years.

I'll pass on Huckabee and Paul, though I'm most concerned about the former for some of the reasons mentioned in other threads, so I won't get into it.

Ron Paul, on the other hand, bothers me a lot. For a Libertarian, he sure has come out and campaigned against abortion and gay rights. Plus, eliminating the Department of Education, going back to the gold standard (way to be a hundred years late on that one)... it all seems like silly things to run on, if you ask me.

What are the two things everyone seems to like about him? He wants to end the War in Iraq and decriminalize most illegal substances. That's why he has such a large college following. College students who oppose the war and want to drink teh vodka and smokes teh weed all the time on campus support him simply for his stances on those issues; nothing more. It's kind of mind-boggling, to me.

(Not to mention that both parties hate his kind of politics, and he'd never get anything done; but the chances of him winning aren't realistic, so I'll skip that whole argument)

LuiECuomo

01-20-2008, 04:00 PM

Well said, jman. I absolutely LOATHE college students who support candidates primarily on his or her stance on decriminalizing marijuana. It's people like that who don't even deserve to be in college in the first place.

rdh007

01-20-2008, 07:26 PM

Note the date from the NY Times website archive:

IN GREAT DREAD OF SILVER; McKINLEY TALKS OF A PHASE OF THE FINANCIAL SITUATION. Shows How Business and Municipal Projects Are Held in Abeyance for Lack of Confidence on the Part of Investors -- Money Tied Up Through Fear that the Repudia- tionists May Triumph -- Condition That Distresses Labor.
October 1, 1896, Wednesday

cookiva

01-20-2008, 07:32 PM

Huckabee supporters will probably shift to Guiliani. I don't see Romney losing support after his victory in Nevada. If anything - his numbers may inch slightly up.

Giuliani in no way is like Huckabee. Why would they shift....?

Matt

01-20-2008, 10:48 PM

Giuliani in no way is like, Huckabee. Why would they shift....?

Agreed. Giuliani supporters would likely split between McCain and Romney.

StorminNorman

01-20-2008, 11:10 PM

Giuliani in no way is like, Huckabee. Why would they shift....?

Agreed. Giuliani supporters would likely split between McCain and Romney.

I am chalking up that incredibly absurd comment to the fact that I was under the influence :o

hippie_hunter

01-20-2008, 11:45 PM

Agreed. Giuliani supporters would likely split between McCain and Romney.

I think they'll most likely back McCain. McCain represents the security aspects that Giuliani has promoted so very often.

The Senator

01-20-2008, 11:56 PM

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/20/norris-mccain-may-be-too-old-for-the-white-house/

Anyone else think Chuck Norris should go away? Chuck Norris is in no position to call McCain 'too old' for anything, considering he's only four/ five years younger than him.

rdh007

01-21-2008, 07:11 AM

McCain's a little older than I find ideal, but perhaps if he'd won in 2000...
While we're on the subject of useless characteristics of the candidates, does anyone else find Huckabee unpalatable because of his wife? I mean, McCain's wife clearly has had several plastic surgery-type procedures done, but at least she's okay to look at.

For clarity:
http://i5.photobucket.com/albums/y161/ldubeleventy7/McCain-feat-Nav-de.jpghttp://www.aetn.org/election2002/assets/images/jhuckabee1.jpg

Matt

01-21-2008, 09:41 AM

Meh, if we can handle Barbara Bush I'm sure we can handle the ugly Mrs. Huckabee.

rdh007

01-21-2008, 10:24 AM

I thought that was a George Washington look alike he kept with him? Of course, the joke was on everyone when he slapped Paris Carver on the hindside.
dJZoai2HIeA

Venom'sDad

01-21-2008, 11:14 AM

Huckabee supporters will probably shift to Guiliani. I don't see Romney losing support after his victory in Nevada. If anything - his numbers may inch slightly up.

The key, IMO, is Thompson voters. If Thompson leaves the race - I think Romney and McCain benefit. Thompson will probably back McCain leading many voters to that side. IMO, though, most Thompson supporters care more about issues than candidates (which is why there were backing an obvious dud) and will probably back Romney given his stance on Immigration.

McCain-Kennedy may end up hurting the Senator.

This is, please understand, not based off of personal bias (un-like a lot of my Romney remarks I will (and have) make. This comes from interaction with Thompson supporters who whole Sen. Thompson their "safe" vote and Romney their secondary candidate. I would estimate of the Thompson supporters I have met in person and online (some of them my own parents) - this seemed to be a very popular stand.

If Thompson leave, his supporters will move towards Romney, regardless of Thompson endorsement of McCain. A few will go to McCain, but not enough to make a difference. Also a few will go to RudyG as well.

RudyG & hillary will lead the country exactly where the majority desire to go.... an European Style Socialist System.

hippie_hunter

01-21-2008, 11:33 AM

If Thompson leave, his supporters will move towards Romney, regardless of Thompson endorsement of McCain. A few will go to McCain, but not enough to make a difference. Also a few will go to RudyG as well.

RudyG & hillary will lead the country exactly where the majority desire to go.... an European Style Socialist System.

If Thompson left and endorsed McCain, his supporters would go towards McCain. They aren't going to go towards Romney (a former supporter of abortion) or Giuliani (a rather "liberal" Republican). Thompson's candidacy popped up because some people wanted a clear conservative choice and they stuck with him for some reason. If he said, vote for McCain, most of his supporters would go to support McCain because of Thompson's endorsement and the fact that out of the big three, McCain is actually the most conservative.

He's fiscally conservative. He's anti-abortion and always was. He's a Christian. He supports the Second Amendment for the most part. He's a supporter of states rights. Etc.

And shut up about the retarded "Americans want a European styled socialist system" crap. It makes you look like a right wing loony and that is blatantly false. Most Americans DO NOT want a European style of life.

Venom'sDad

01-21-2008, 11:48 AM

The Senator

01-21-2008, 11:56 AM

^^^ Most do want it, and ignoring that fact wont make it untrue. BTW, lol, a right-winger...

Anyway, no they wont vote McCain because Thompson says so; this is not Samie Says. Thompson supporters are few first of all, and most will support Romney because 1st, he's a businessman, 2nd, because of immigration, tax, trade, and military support(which he shares with McCain), 3rd, dare I say it, he looks Presidential with the hair and all, McCain looks like he's ready to croak(that's the point that Chuck Norris was trying to make and a huge percentage of Repubs/Cons do think that way).

Most of you completely ignore the dynamics of politics and are missing the subtle pulse of the nation.

Um... no, you're wrong. Most Democrats want it. But most Americans don't want us to turn into a socialized state.

Of course, I'm a political science major, an international relations minor, have worked for members of the House of Representatives, the Senate, an NGO, and volunteered on two Senate campaigns and a Presidential campaign.

Nope, I know nothing of politics or the pulse of the nation, considering, you know, I analyze polls and research data on a daily basis.

cookiva

01-21-2008, 11:59 AM

Jman is right. I want it, but the majority of the US doesnt....

rdh007

01-21-2008, 01:35 PM

2007/2008 Human Development Index Rankings:
Iceland
Norway
Australia
Canada
Ireland
Sweden
Switzerland
Japan
Netherlands
France
Finland
United States

http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/

I would submit that thinking we should go to a more Euro-style is not without merit. I count three (four if you count Iceland) countries in the top eleven that aren't in Europe. We're twelfth place! Woo-hoo!

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 02:44 PM

Rasmussen Poll:
Romney 25%
McCain 20%
Guilliani 19%

The Senator

01-21-2008, 02:48 PM

The Human Development Report Office measures life expectancy, literacy and education, and the standard of living. It doesn't measure the extent at which liberal ideas or socialized programs factor into a country's overall living.

Also, twelfth place isn't bad.

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 02:59 PM

SentinelMind

01-21-2008, 06:25 PM

Hmm...will Rudy win any state outside of New York? Will he be an asterisk in textbooks?

I'm from FL, I think Norman's assessment of the state and political make up is pretty good. I'm in Northern Florida...and I'm seeing lots of Romney bumper stickers lately....

rdh007

01-21-2008, 07:25 PM

McCain wins, Giuliani in second, Romney in third, Huckabee in fourth because of a loss in South Carolina and Fred Thompson hurting him.
QFTMFinT!

The Senator

01-21-2008, 07:36 PM

Hmm...will Rudy win any state outside of New York? Will he be an asterisk in textbooks?

He's currently polling third in New York:

McCain: 34%
Romney: 19%
Giuliani: 18
Huckabee: 15%

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 11:05 PM

There seems to be thought amongst many in the Thompson campaign that Thompson will drop out after the weekend.

Again - I think this movie benefits Romney a lot. He will score probably half of all Thompson voters, possibly more. Those that dislike Romney based on his being a Mormon will be split between Huckabee and McCain.

The Senator

01-21-2008, 11:08 PM

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 11:11 PM

It may also benefit Huckabee.

:shudders:

No - I don't think so. Huckabee's record is fairly liberal and he (and McCain) faced fierce attack from Thompson. All Thompson supporters I have spoken with do not like Huckabee at all.

Thompson supporters want a Conservative candidate - Romney is the most conservative after Thompson.

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 11:13 PM

Also I voted for Romney today.

hippie_hunter

01-21-2008, 11:25 PM

Rasmussen Poll:
Romney 25%
McCain 20%
Guilliani 19%

RCP Average:
McCain - 23.3%
Giuliani - 20%
Romney - 19.%

cookiva

01-21-2008, 11:33 PM

Also I voted for Romney today.

You know it wont come true if you tell us....

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 11:54 PM

RCP Average:
McCain - 23.3%
Giuliani - 20%
Romney - 19.%

Rasmussen's polling is far more accurate - it was conducted 1/20.

Survey USA's is the only other valid poll conducted today (and, to be fair, it shows a similar number you have given) but the other polls can be thrown considering they were too old to truly take into effect Michigan - much less this weekend and recent trends.

Rasmussen is one of the top respected pollsters, above even Survey USA.

StorminNorman

01-21-2008, 11:56 PM

You know it wont come true if you tell us....

(I really voted for Alan Keyes :()

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 12:04 AM

Rasmussen's polling is far more accurate - it was conducted 1/20.

Survey USA's is the only other valid poll conducted today (and, to be fair, it shows a similar number you have given) but the other polls can be thrown considering they were too old to truly take into effect Michigan - much less this weekend and recent trends.

Rasmussen is one of the top respected pollsters, above even Survey USA.
I'm not downplaying Rasmussen because they are a top tier poller. But most polls have been putting McCain on top. And frankly, I think that is what is going to happen.

StorminNorman

01-22-2008, 01:16 AM

I'm not downplaying Rasmussen because they are a top tier poller. But most polls have been putting McCain on top. And frankly, I think that is what is going to happen.

But the other polls are not viable.

Look at RealClearPolitics.com, the dates of the polls. Do you know which was most recent until these two today by Rasmussen? A Rasmussen poll done (the 18th I believe) that had the race 20 21 20 between McCain/Giuliani/Romney.

Romney has had momentum. The economy has done that. He won Michigan despite the fact most polls had him down. He won in Nevada to a far greater margin than predicted. Etc. Etc.

cookiva

01-22-2008, 12:26 PM

Kucinich's guys would go to Edwards first, but with Dennis backstabbing them by backing Obama earlier, they will go to Obama....

Venom'sDad

01-22-2008, 01:29 PM

Fred Thompson has just drop out of the 2008 Presidential Race for the Republican Nomination.

CorpusBlack

01-22-2008, 01:31 PM

I'm in Southwest Florida and I hear a lot of support for McCain and a lot of distaste towards Romney. I do see a lot of Giuliani stickers though. Huckabee seems to be well under the radar here.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 01:37 PM

Kucinich's guys would go to Edwards first, but with Dennis backstabbing them by backing Obama earlier, they will go to Obama....

Kucinich's people would probably not go to anyone, frankly. Most of them are late-middle-aged hippies who want to spend their lives smoking pot all day while dressing in raggedy hemp pants and Grateful Dead t-shirts from the 1970s. Once Kucinich is done, they'll probably be done, too. Most of them won't take the time to read up on any of the other candidates because, quite frankly, who has time to do that when you can be lighting a bowl instead?

The Senator

01-22-2008, 01:38 PM

Fred Thompson has just drop out of the 2008 Presidential Race for the Republican Nomination.

Even his decision to drop out is boring and uninspiring.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 01:42 PM

Even his decision to drop out is boring and uninspiring.

You're right:

Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for President of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.

Matt

01-22-2008, 01:43 PM

Matt

01-22-2008, 01:45 PM

Giuliani will stay in for as long as he can help Huckabee and ensure a spot in his administration as VP or Attorney General.

Edwards could stay til the end. He did it in 2004, despite not having a shot. But I personally think he is trying to get a spot in the Clinton administration as his presence is hurting Obama.

CorpusBlack

01-22-2008, 01:45 PM

Just as Edwards is only still in the race to ensure a spot in Hillary's administration by hurting Obama.

Which was very apparent by the debate last night.

Matt

01-22-2008, 01:50 PM

Which was very apparent by the debate last night.

Yep. Well, in all fairness...Edwards' only chance at winning is for Obama to drop out and Edwards to take his supporters. If Edwards can take a few southern states on Super Tuesday and Obama drops out afterwards, Edwards could have a chance, albeit a small one. But yeah, at this point he just seems to be pandering to Clinton.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 01:56 PM

Malice

01-22-2008, 01:56 PM

I seriously suspect someone might ask him as a ticket runner....
You very rarely see someone ask a former competitor to join them, but I see that happening

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:00 PM

Actually Edwards dropped out after Super Tuesday in 2004.

Did he? He was still on the PA ballot and that was well after Super Tuesday :huh:

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:02 PM

I seriously suspect someone might ask him as a ticket runner....
You very rarely see someone ask a former competitor to join them, but I see that happening

Hillary...maybe. But I personally think Wesley Clark has it locked with her. Obama, no chance.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 02:04 PM

I seriously suspect someone might ask him as a ticket runner....
You very rarely see someone ask a former competitor to join them, but I see that happening

I think that's changing, and it makes sense to do that. Why not offer the position to someone who already has a lot of name recognition nationally? That's why I think Kerry picked Edwards in 2004, and why Edwards or Obama would be seriously considered by the Clinton campaign.

I don't think Edwards will take another VP slot, but that's just me. Anything can happen with these things, so it wouldn't surprise me. Of course, if he loses again, does he want to be remembered for losing the Vice Presidency twice? I think that's a little more humiliating than the Presidency in some respects.

I also don't think he'll be in the convention until the end. He's very far behind in the delegate count, and if he is making a deal with Hillary like CNN has been suggesting, it wouldn't surprise me if-- on February 6-- he drops out and endorses her if the number two spot is guaranteed (but alas, that's all speculation, and I wouldn't agree with it personally).

cookiva

01-22-2008, 02:04 PM

Kucinich's people would probably not go to anyone, frankly. Most of them are late-middle-aged hippies who want to spend their lives smoking pot all day while dressing in raggedy hemp pants and Grateful Dead t-shirts from the 1970s. Once Kucinich is done, they'll probably be done, too. Most of them won't take the time to read up on any of the other candidates because, quite frankly, who has time to do that when you can be lighting a bowl instead?

Sweet. I'm a Kucinich supporter. I don't smoke pot. I'm not a hippie. Im 21 years old, not middle aged.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 02:05 PM

Did he? He was still on the PA ballot and that was well after Super Tuesday :huh:

Once you get on a ballot in a state, you stay on that ballot.

Howard Dean was on the ballot in Vermont, and won Vermont... though it was several weeks after he dropped out.

It happens all the time.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:09 PM

Giuliani needs Florida as much as Edwards needed Iowa. If he loses, he is done and his only reason for remaining in will be to obtain a position in someone's administration (he would love to be attorney general or VP and his remaining in the election will surely aide Huckabee by stealing Romney and McCain supporters). So he could be convinced by the Huckabee camp to stay in, in exchange for a nomination to another position. Just as Edwards is only still in the race to ensure a spot in Hillary's administration by hurting Obama.

I think Giuliani would have a place as Attorney General in a McCain Administration. The two also have friendly ties.

Though all of the GOP candidates actually like and respect each other except for Romney. They all apparently hate Romney.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 02:13 PM

Though all of the GOP candidates actually like and respect each other except for Romney. They all apparently hate Romney.

It only makes sense. He's spent more money on attack ads than any other candidate, and spends most of his stump speeches criticizing his rivals. And really, he shouldn't be criticizing everyone else about the positions they take, considering he's changed his position on so many of the key issues, no one honestly knows what the man stands for.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:16 PM

It only makes sense. He's spent more money on attack ads than any other candidate, and spends most of his stump speeches criticizing his rivals. And really, he shouldn't be criticizing everyone else about the positions they take, considering he's changed his position on so many of the key issues, no one honestly knows what the man stands for.

I don't even mean it as a joke. I've heard it on the news and even read about it. The other GOP candidates, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Paul, and Thompson actually hate the guy. For realz.

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:18 PM

I find the Republican race, hatred for Romney aside, to be far classier than the Democrat race. Its just getting incredibly messy.

Venom'sDad

01-22-2008, 02:20 PM

Though all of the GOP candidates actually like and respect each other except for Romney. They all apparently hate Romney.

I don't think they hate him, I think they really don't trust him, because of obvious reasons.

CorpusBlack

01-22-2008, 02:20 PM

I find the Republican race, hatred for Romney aside, to be far classier than the Democrat race. Its just getting incredibly messy.

Yeah. I personally never thought I'd be swaying towards the Republicans come election time.

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:21 PM

I think that's changing, and it makes sense to do that. Why not offer the position to someone who already has a lot of name recognition nationally? That's why I think Kerry picked Edwards in 2004, and why Edwards or Obama would be seriously considered by the Clinton campaign.

I don't think Edwards will take another VP slot, but that's just me. Anything can happen with these things, so it wouldn't surprise me. Of course, if he loses again, does he want to be remembered for losing the Vice Presidency twice? I think that's a little more humiliating than the Presidency in some respects.

I also don't think he'll be in the convention until the end. He's very far behind in the delegate count, and if he is making a deal with Hillary like CNN has been suggesting, it wouldn't surprise me if-- on February 6-- he drops out and endorses her if the number two spot is guaranteed (but alas, that's all speculation, and I wouldn't agree with it personally).

Obama and Hillary is becoming way too dirty to take them seriously as running mates.

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:21 PM

Once you get on a ballot in a state, you stay on that ballot.

Howard Dean was on the ballot in Vermont, and won Vermont... though it was several weeks after he dropped out.

It happens all the time.

Ah, I see. Thanks :up:

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:22 PM

I don't think they hate him, I think they really don't trust him, because of obvious reasons.

Oh no. They really do hate him. McCain, Thompson, and Huckabee can't stand him. Giuliani enjoyed it when everyone ganged up on him. And I can't imagine Paul liking him either because Romney is such an a*sshole to him.

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:23 PM

Yeah. I personally never thought I'd be swaying towards the Republicans come election time.

And whats bound to happen is, all these independents seeing Obama as "Fresh" will see his nonstop mudslinging with Hillary, become turned off by Democrats and vote Republican in November.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:24 PM

I find the Republican race, hatred for Romney aside, to be far classier than the Democrat race. Its just getting incredibly messy.

Of course it is classier. McCain is actually friends with Giuliani and Thompson. And he seems to be on friendly terms with Huckabee. And deep down they actually all respect each other, again Romney's the exclusion.

With the Democrats, it's a two way race of two people who have grown to hate each other with such animosity.

CorpusBlack

01-22-2008, 02:24 PM

And whats bound to happen is, all these independents seeing Obama as "Fresh" will see his nonstop mudslinging with Hillary, become turned off by Democrats and vote Republican in November.

Couldn't agree more.

The Senator

01-22-2008, 02:24 PM

I don't even mean it as a joke. I've heard it on the news and even read about it. The other GOP candidates, Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee, Paul, and Thompson actually hate the guy. For realz.

Oh, I know. Those guys' supporters hate him, too.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:26 PM

Matt

01-22-2008, 02:29 PM

I see Giuliani getting a spot in the McCain Administration. More than a Huckabee one.

But Giuliani being in the race hurts McCain more than Huckabee. Huckabee may have cut a deal.

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:32 PM

But Giuliani being in the race hurts McCain more than Huckabee. Huckabee may have cut a deal.
I don't think so. Huckabee is done and McCain and Giuliani are on rather friendly terms.

cookiva

01-22-2008, 02:34 PM

Huckabee's steam is dropping, and needs to win Florida to gain it back before Super Tuesday. Its a priority to do so...

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:35 PM

Not gonna happen. South Carolina was Huckabee's make it or break it state. He didn't make it. Florida is down to McCain, Giuliani, and Romney.

cookiva

01-22-2008, 02:44 PM

Well, now its definitly not going to happen. Reports are coming out of Huckabee running on a shoestring budget in Florida, and if money gets tighter, he has said he might pull out of Florida entirely and put all of his efforts into Super Tuesday.

Might be a better idea for him if money is tight....

hippie_hunter

01-22-2008, 02:46 PM

cookiva

01-22-2008, 02:47 PM

Well, Nancy Pelosi is on.....

God she is so hot...

MSNBC is the only channel I can stand. CNN has too much of a Clinton hard on, and Fox news is....fox news...

Damiean Dark

01-22-2008, 02:59 PM

Thompsons out, Guliani has a far too shady past to make it to presidential nominee, Huckabee is too religious all that leaves is Mccain and Romney and i really do think Mccain is too old.

Malice

01-22-2008, 03:43 PM

Ronmey is the only one with money right now.

sithgoblin

01-23-2008, 07:22 AM

That Romney, what a character.

StorminNorman

01-23-2008, 01:33 PM

Polling Update:

InsiderAdvantage is polling: Romney 24% Giulani 19% McCain 18%

CorpusBlack

01-23-2008, 01:41 PM

Polling Update:

InsiderAdvantage is polling: Romney 24% Giulani 19% McCain 18%

F'n Florida. :csad:

dolfan55aj

01-23-2008, 03:20 PM

-Thompson is gone
-Paul will be gone soon no doubt
-Edwards will be forgotten and then leave
-Giuliani will probably win Florida and then go on I'm almost positive, he's go too much money to not get far, the only reason he's been doing poorly in the early states is because he knows he won't win, therefore he does't campaign there...It'll be him and Romney as the last two cantidates for the Republican nomination, mark my words...

hippie_hunter

01-23-2008, 03:33 PM

Ron Paul probably won't drop out, but he certainly isn't going to win. Edwards will probably drop out after Super Tuesday. Huckabee's done, South Carolina was his make it or break it state. Giuliani will probably drop out if he loses Florida.

Right now it's Hillary vs. Obama and McCain vs. Romney.

StorminNorman

01-23-2008, 04:43 PM

and Romney has the momentum - especially with the polls in Florida as they are.

hippie_hunter

01-23-2008, 04:49 PM

and Romney has the momentum - especially with the polls in Florida as they are.
Oh come on, polls are going all over right now with Romney in first, in second, in third. And the same said for McCain. To say that just Romney has the momentum is just crazy.

Right now both Romney and McCain have the momentum due to their victories and that is what this race has come down to. Romney has the advantage with money and McCain has the advantage with reputation.

StorminNorman

01-23-2008, 05:08 PM

Oh come on, polls are going all over right now with Romney in first, in second, in third. And the same said for McCain. To say that just Romney has the momentum is just crazy.

Right now both Romney and McCain have the momentum due to their victories and that is what this race has come down to. Romney has the advantage with money and McCain has the advantage with reputation.

No. There are three polls that are releveant and SurveyUSA is a garbage poll. The other two polls done in Florida have Romney with the same margin of lead. 5%

The Economy is the issue in Florida - and that is the issue Romney is nailing every candidate with. It makes since that he surges as the media tells more tales of the failing economy.

hippie_hunter

01-23-2008, 05:26 PM

No. There are three polls that are releveant and SurveyUSA is a garbage poll. The other two polls done in Florida have Romney with the same margin of lead. 5%

The Economy is the issue in Florida - and that is the issue Romney is nailing every candidate with. It makes since that he surges as the media tells more tales of the failing economy.
Oh come on, you're just being far too biased towards Romney. Just like I'm being biased against Romney because I hate that douche.

Personally I think McCain will come out on top in Florida, but I ain't betting on it because it's just too close right now. Polls put McCain on top , Romney on top, or in second or in third for both of them. The fact is that this is going to be a close three way race between McCain, Romney, and Giuliani.

McCain has an advantage because of a positive reputation, the races he won give better momentum, and the media is placing him in the frontrunner status.

Romney has an advantage because he's in the lead in delegates, he has the money, and he's better at delivering the economy message.

Polls right now just can't be too reliable because the race is just far too close, the results are placing the three in different positions, and it all really depends on who you ask. Remember in New Hampshire, Obama was expected to win by a rather good margin but Hillary won. Or in Nevada where Romney was expected to win by a decent margin but ended up ass raping the competition and Ron freaking Paul came in second.

StorminNorman

01-23-2008, 05:41 PM

Oh come on, you're just being far too biased towards Romney. Just like I'm being biased against Romney because I hate that douche.

Probably. But I am not irrational. I have polls and trends backing up what I am saying.

It is not a coincidence that two leading polls have Romney skyrocketing just as the economy is becoming THE issue of the election.

Personally I think McCain will come out on top in Florida, but I ain't betting on it because it's just too close right now. Polls put McCain on top , Romney on top, or in second or in third for both of them. The fact is that this is going to be a close three way race between McCain, Romney, and Giuliani.

McCain has an advantage because of a positive reputation, the races he won give better momentum, and the media is placing him in the frontrunner status.

I would argue advantage sits in Romney's quarter in Florida. With Thompson dropping out and Huckabe giving up in the state there sits a lot of free-floating Conservative voters. I am banking on them siding with Romney.

McCain has won his states based on moderates, independents, democrats and veterans.

The moderate vote is split in Florida.

Independents and Democrats can't vote.

Veterans are already sided with McCain.

As Thompson and Huckabee's voters jump shift - I expect Romney's lead to become more solid.

Romney has an advantage because he's in the lead in delegates, he has the money, and he's better at delivering the economy message.

He is better at delivering the economy message because he is the economy candidate. McCain won't beat Romney in an election that comes down to economics - Michigan proved that.

Polls right now just can't be too reliable because the race is just far too close, the results are placing the three in different positions, and it all really depends on who you ask. Remember in New Hampshire, Obama was expected to win by a rather good margin but Hillary won. Or in Nevada where Romney was expected to win by a decent margin but ended up ass raping the competition and Ron freaking Paul came in second.

Thats why its important to look beyond the polls.

The climate is right for Romney in Florida. The winds couldn't be any greater at Romney's back. He is the last "Conservative" standing. McCain has real competition as the moderate candidate. And the economy is the feature article on every news show.

hippie_hunter

01-24-2008, 12:28 PM

Polling Update:

InsiderAdvantage is polling: Romney 24% Giulani 19% McCain 18%

Again proving my point that polling right now is just completely pointless and untrustworthy because this race is just too close to call. The latest InsiderAdvantage numbers show new numbers and leaders already:

Insider Advantage
McCain: 23%
Romney: 22%
Giuliani: 18%

And here are the more most recent numbers:

Rasmussen
Romney: 27%
McCain: 23%
Giluliani: 20%

Mason-Dixon
Romney: 30%
McCain: 26%
Giluliani: 18%

Strategic Vision
McCain: 25%
Giluliani: 22%
Romney: 20%

Survey USA
McCain: 25%
Giuliani: 20%
Romney: 19%

Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times/Bay 9
McCain: 25%
Romney: 23%
Giuliani: 15%

Real Clear Politics Average
McCain: 24.5%
Romney: 23.5%
Giuliani: 18.8%

Matt

01-24-2008, 12:30 PM

hippie_hunter

01-24-2008, 12:38 PM

Matt

01-24-2008, 12:41 PM

I think the only thing that the polls will affect is negatively affecting Giuliani's campaign. They make him look like a loser for a guy who's spent so much time in Florida causing people to flock to either McCain or Romney.

Agreed. Like I said, the geezers will vote for whoever is fresh in their minds. If the last thing they see is a poll about how Giuliani is down and has wasted all this time in Florida, they will vote against him.

StorminNorman

01-24-2008, 07:16 PM

Florida is going to be determined by the senior citizens, obviously. So these polls are meaningless. Most seniors will just vote for whoever is fresh their mind. Therefore whoever ends up going to the most bingo games in retirement homes at the last minute will win.

The Senior vote should be strongly for Rudy considering the large retired-New York Jewish population.

CorpusBlack

01-24-2008, 08:33 PM

Florida is going to be determined by the senior citizens, obviously. So these polls are meaningless. Most seniors will just vote for whoever is fresh their mind. Therefore whoever ends up going to the most bingo games in retirement homes at the last minute will win.

FL is actually about 45% Senior Citizens and 45% inbred backwoods rednecks. The other 10% is young people like me who are sick of the same old bull**** who feel like their vote is wasted.

rdh007

01-24-2008, 09:39 PM

The Senior vote should be strongly for Rudy considering the large retired-New York Jewish population.
Or it could work against him for those very things. He wasn't always "America's Mayor".

StorminNorman

01-24-2008, 11:00 PM

Venom'sDad

01-24-2008, 11:12 PM

Romney seems the be the favorite out of the debate tonight. Rated very highly by both voting and commentators. His sound bite about Bill Clinton in the White House with nothing to do will be played on the news until Tuesday.

McCain did himself no favors tonight. Nor did Giuliani. Huckabee got great reviews - but his lack of funds means it will do little to impact the Florida race.

IMHO, Romney won the debate tonight by far, and I totally agree with your assessment of RudyG.

The Republicans has better, more qualified, candidates, between the two Parties. I think they have a better grasp of the issues and appear to be more solution oriented.

:up:

hippie_hunter

01-24-2008, 11:37 PM

hippie_hunter

01-24-2008, 11:39 PM

And Norman, don't say that Huckabee will do poorly because of lack of funds. He beat Huckabee by a decent margin when Romney outspent him 20-1. I think the most important thing we've learned this election is that money isn't going to matter, it's going to be who gets the message best across.

That said, there's no way Huckabee's going to be in the top 3 in Florida. It's all down to McCain and Romney.

MaskedManJRK

01-24-2008, 11:55 PM

I liked Huckabee's humor concerning Chuck Norris. He knows how to play that card well.

And poor Ron Paul gets ignored....again.

Oh God...do I really wanna hear Huckabee's idea of humor? :dry:

And of course Paul gets ignored. He's always ignored.

And Norman, don't say that Huckabee will do poorly because of lack of funds. He beat Huckabee by a decent margin when Romney outspent him 20-1. I think the most important thing we've learned this election is that money isn't going to matter, it's going to be who gets the message best across.

That said, there's no way Huckabee's going to be in the top 3 in Florida. It's all down to McCain and Romney.

I hear ya--hell, I wrote McCain off early on, but he now seems to be back in the race.

It pains me to admit it, but there's a good chance that *****abee can still get the nominee.

hippie_hunter

01-25-2008, 12:02 AM

Oh God...do I really wanna hear Huckabee's idea of humor?
It was actually pretty funny. He was asked about Norris' comments about McCain's age especially since he said them right next to Huckabee. Huckabee stated that he doesn't feel the same way about McCain's age like Norris does, but he didn't say anything at the time because Chuck was standing right next to him and would kick his head off. He says that he feels that McCain's age is not that big of a deal and he says it comfortably because he's a safe distance away from Chuck.

I hear ya--hell, I wrote McCain off early on, but he now seems to be back in the race.

It pains me to admit it, but there's a good chance that *****abee can still get the nominee.
Huckabee's done. He lost South Carolina which would have given him much needed momentum into Florida and Super Tuesday and would have resulted in some much needed donations.

The race is now down to Romney and McCain.

StorminNorman

01-25-2008, 01:00 AM

I agree that Romney came off as the best in the debate tonight, but it's not like McCain or Giuliani were horrible either so I don't think that this is going to affect the polls that much.

I liked Huckabee's humor concerning Chuck Norris. He knows how to play that card well.

And poor Ron Paul gets ignored....again.

McCain could be jumped on for trying to argue that he never made that comment about him needing to learn more about the economy. He made that statement in the Boston Globe last year and the Wall Street Times before that.