The Official Captain America Box Office Thread!

[Wally West]

Obviously the cast isn't in place yet and we have limited information about the film at this point, so it's difficult to speculate how well the film might preform at the box office.

Having said that however, I can't help but wonder how successful a Captain America film will be outside the U.S

I would say that one thing the film has going for it in terms of world wide accessibility is that it's a period piece set mostly in WWII. At that point in history America was reluctant to enter into wars overseas, and did not enter the war until after the bombing of pearl harbor. I think it is considerably easier to portray America as a country who was in the right at that time, and that much of the world would probably agree.

Alot has changed over the years and America is certainly not the most popular country in many parts of the world today. So I would assume CA is not nearly as popular in many countries as other superheros.

When you consider that most american blockbusters count on the foriegn box office take for a considerable portion of the films overall gross, how much concern do you think there is that the film may not preform well outside of the U.S.?

[Wally West]

Sorry about this...I've double posted before, I've never managed to produce duplicate threads. Sorry.

[FaT_tONle]

Definitely under 200 million I'd say. Whatever the domestic is I expect 2/3's of that give or take a few million.

[Webhead2006]

yea hard to judge were it is going when we are months away from first unit filming, a cast signed and ready to go. Now if they end up getting someone like a brad pitt as the leading man that could make over seas bo go up more. But i agree it will probably end being maybe like 200-300+million domestically and somewhere in 100-180million over seas.

[KangConquers]

250 million stateside, 100 million overseas.

[Matt]

Hey guys, I know we're a year out but box office debate is always fun and its never too late to start discussing so with the lead in place, and the villain about to be signed, we are starting to get some idea of what this could be shaping up for, so what are your thoughts?

I'm a bit nervous about Evans. He's not really had a hit since Fantastic Four and is hardly a house hold name. He's not exactly the type of guy you sell a movie on. Of course, Weaving could counter-act that.

Also there is the question of whether or not foreign countries will want to see Captain America. America is not the most popular place on earth. Could our negative conception hurt Cap?

My main concern, is Transformers 2 which comes out a couple weeks before Cap. The general public has spoken, and they like Michael Bay's Transformer movies, no ifs, and, or buts about it. Plus if you factor in the market being oversaturated by Marvel movies (Thor comes out two months before Cap, Iron Man 2 a little over a year before) we could have the makings of a disaster. Of course, its still early...but there are some bad signs. What are your thoughts? Lets discuss Captain America's box office!

[topdog1]

Nah, I'm more worried about Thor than I am about Cap.

Cap will hit big enough. The story and the climate will be perfect for success come next summer. Staying away from the July 4th buzzsaw was always a good idea even though the character begs for that release date.

I'm saying it will hit north of Wolverine's worldwide total but less than Iron Man. Around $400 to $450 Million Worldwide.

Harry Potter is always a factor but his audience is built in. If you've seen the other films, you'll see this one. If not, you won't. Cap has no real threat after it opens. It can run through August without a new major threat at this point. Thor has that giant Pirates road block two weeks after it opens.

[Evan Drew]

I think with the Invader angle (if rumors are true), they will try to off-set the over seas issues with the film. I imagine nationalizing them to specific countries. Captain Britain to ..hmmm...Britain. Perhaps Toro for Spain. Namor could be for Atlantis. They must have huge IMAX down there!

$300+ for USA similiar to the first Iron Man with $200 or so for over seas. That seems realistic. If JJ pulls it off though, I could see this going higher than IM due in large part to the previous IM movies and if Thor is a hit.

[Matt]

I say at best 400 ww. What's the early budget report on this film though? Will 400 be enough or will it be a bomb like Superman Returns due to the fact that its budget was too high for its own good?

[flickchick85]

Well, obviously the quality of the movie will dictate this to some extent, but assuming it's decent, I'd expect it to be a modest success (for a blockbuster). It'll probably have a more limited appeal than Iron Man, but it won't feel as much like a re-tread like TIH. I'm guessing it'll do better than TIH domestically, but roughly the same overseas, so I'd imagine its total will be somewhere in between TIH and Iron Man. My estimate: $300-360 million worldwide, and around $165-220 million domestically.

As for Transformers, those movies don't have extremely long legs at the box office. They make their big bucks in the 1st two weeks. The last one fell to 3rd place in its 3rd weekend, and the #1 that weekend, Bruno, only opened with $30 million. This movie will open 3 weeks after Transformers, and will be a MUCH bigger draw than Bruno (at least 3x bigger, I'd imagine). Especially if it's PG-13 (a given) and relatively family-friendly.

ETA: Regarding the budget, I heard it was lower than other Marvel movies (didn't we hear Marvel was keeping the purse strings uber-tight on this one?), so I think anything over $285 million worldwide would be considered a success.

Also, I agree that Thor is a bigger concern. I honestly don't expect that movie to be much of a box office success, even if I do think it may end up being the better movie overall. If Clash of the Titans is a hit, I could see that spurring interest in the subject matter a little bit (I know they're different Gods/worlds, but there are similarities...), but barring that, I think that movie's gonna need to rely on word-of-mouth for its success a lot more than Captain America will.

[knowsbleed]

In all honesty, I don't have much faith in a Joe Johnston movie starring Evans. It has the makings of another FF. If it weren't for Marvel overseeing their Avengers franchise... I would have zero faith in this movie. Marvel looking over this movie is one of the only things that I see as a positive. I predict 225 at most.

[JP]

I don't see any reason to be nervous for Thor. Thor has THE golden release date. It'll be fine. Cap is more of a concern.
But, what I've noticed in the past is that when the movie is good, and I mean so good that all the reviews are glowing, a great buzz generates on its own, and people really respond to that buzz.

[Chewy]

I'm far more concerned about Cap than Thor. Thor has the best release date, and banking on its big name supporting cast and what should hopefully be a great marketing campaign, it'll be a hit.

Cap, on the other hand, opens the week after the final Harry Potter film.

[Deaths Head II]

I'm worried about both this and Thor. Thor because it's different from the usual super hero film and Cap because it's about a hero representing a country not very popular in the world right now.

[TikkiEXX]

dont know why people insist on being so negative about this flick when all we have is a vague synopsis of the plot and a lead actor. unless you have a crystal ball i think its almost impossible at the moment to speculate about the movies success or failure. reign it in a bit folks. seems like people are almost wanting this movie to fail. we know next to nothing at the moment. i at least need to see a trailer or some set pics or something.

[Lightning Strykez!]

I'm not worried about it's box office take at this point. Xformers is irrelevant, especially if Marvel markets it appropriately.

However, I'm not going to project numbers just yet. I'm going to wait until I see something concrete like...I dunno...some costume imagery, some stills, some footage, Marvel's marketing plans vs. the other studios, etc.

I think this thread may be a bit premature but...okay. LOL

[Webhead2006]

for me domestic total figures i would say will probably be like 200-300million. which i hope it will be and hopefully will have good legs to last awhile and be a money maker. as for international figures i would say probably 100-200million. So if we get like 300mill domestically plus at least 200million internationally we would have like a 500million total world wide figures which would be a good amount for the film i say.

[Spider-Fan]

I think Cap will make Iron Man numbers.

*Everyone gasps!*

Remember before Iron Man came out, Iron Man was known but not really that recognizable. Cap's name is more popular than Iron Man's was at the time the film was being made. Plus, July has shown it is a strong time for movies lately. Even ones in competition with one another. HP and TF3 may effect Cap, but Cap comes later. If the movie is good, the legs will make up for the loss in opening weekend BO. I still see Cap opening very strong.

As far as WW box office goes, as long as it looks not America rocks you all suck, it will not be ignored WW. It is a Marvel movie, and Marvel's brand name has grown. In fact, the controversy over him being Captain America will give it more publicity, and possibly make the BO returns STRONGER.

I see it equalling IM round about :cap:

[Matt]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

[ThePompousPuma]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

Wouldn't surprise me? I think this movie will do very well in the states. Overseas is a whole other monster.
I agree that if the movie is well received by critics that it would help this movie immensely.
I just want this movie and character to be taken seriosly ala Dark Knight. If this happens it can have the staying power through August and beyond. Good luck Joseph!

[Matt]

I wouldn't count on it from Joe Johnston. :(

[Webhead2006]

you have some good point spider-fan

[Lightning Strykez!]

Let me ask you guys this question:

Is it possible, in a world of Fox News, where Harry Potter is called the work of the Devil and people boycott the DaVinci Code, that Cap can be accused of having homosexual undertones between Cap and Bucky resulting in middle America snubbing the movie? Could that effect the B.O.?

It's all in the execution. I think the upcoming Iron Man film may do a lot for 21st Century perceptions of male superhero duos and how they can interact in a non-campy, masculine way.

Personally, I don't even want Bucky in this film. His whole name screams "teh gaye".













































"Bucky"....:dry:

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I remember people saying that Star Trek wasn't going to succeed for a myriad of reasons and they were proven wrong.

It was going to fail because people wouldn't accept the unknown teenbopper cast

It was going to fail because it came out a week before Wolverine

It was going to fail because Star Trek isn't popular anymore

I'm not saying that Captain America can't fail because it obviously can. Hell, I'm not expecting huge numbers from it but Captain America's challenges aren't anymore daunting than Star Trek's.

To stay on the Star Trek point; Trek didn't exactly kill at the international boxoffice compared to other blockbusters (It was the highest grossing Trek overseas though and I think that the sequel will benefit from the good will)

Am I expecting Captain America to put up Spider-Man numbers overseas? Hell no but I could see it putting up Hulk numbers.

The fact is with the acception of the Spider-Man movies every comicbook film has underpreformed at the international boxoffice. None of these movies (including the Spider-Man flicks) are putting up Pirates of the Carribean 2 and 3 or Harry Potter numbers overseas. And no I didn't forget about TDK. It was a huge hit overseas but it somehow made 80mil less than it's domestic numbers, it should have atleast matched that 533mil...it should have atleast outgrossed Spider-Man 3.

Comicbook flicks in general aren't as popular overseas as they are in the states. Hell, Iron Man suffered the exact same fate as TDK and didn't match it's domestic gross overseas.

[Webhead2006]

i see nothing wrong with bucky at all. they could easily just make bucky a regular solider who is friends with cap, and just have the nickname bucky but majority of the time he goes by his full name or his last name, as soliders usually do.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

The very name Bucky is stupid to me. I don't know a thing about the character, I just wanted to say that.

[Webhead2006]

no problem spidey i know next to nothing on the character myself too. But like i said he could only be called bucky like 2-3 times in film, and rest of time by his first or last name. But back to topic on hand. i do hope we will get a good domestic/ww figures for the film.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Even if the movie sucks I hope it does well because I want Evans to be able to do whatever he wants to do.

[flickchick85]

The very name Bucky is stupid to me. I don't know a thing about the character, I just wanted to say that.
Haha, so true. I had a dog named Bucky.

And I generally agree with your box office prediction too. As I said, I think the movie will do well, but probably be more of a modest success than massive mega-hit. And it's funny you bring up Star Trek, because while we were sitting here making Iron Man comparisons, I was thinking, "nah, if it's a really good movie, it'll get closer to Star Trek numbers than Iron Man."

[FilmNerdJamie]

Still too soon for me to make a call on Captain America. On the other hand, I do think Thor is going to surprise people like Star Trek and Iron Man did.

[TikkiEXX]

The very name Bucky is stupid to me. I don't know a thing about the character, I just wanted to say that.
i know, but it was the 40s man. it probably didnt sound as goofy back then. lol

[Sentinel X]

I'm far more concerned about Cap than Thor. Thor has the best release date, and banking on its big name supporting cast and what should hopefully be a great marketing campaign, it'll be a hit.

Cap, on the other hand, opens the week after the final Harry Potter film. I also think Captain America has a lot more to worry about. Not to mention its Captain America, it may do great in the states but I don't see it doing stellar box office overseas. But who knows.

[Lightning Strykez!]

The very name Bucky is stupid to me. I don't know a thing about the character, I just wanted to say that.

I couldn't agree more. Bucky = :down

[Webhead2006]

well who really knows how the film will do over seas. Plus for all we know it will probably just be called the first avenger over there and the invaders as i said could be the selling points they go with when promoting the film over there.

[FaT_tONle]

I think Thor will do 450ish WW... 200 and change domestic. Cap I see close to 200 give or take a few dozen million. WW will keep it under 400 million. It's solid profit, but not enough for Captain America 2/3. Thor, with those numbers, could get a sequel if they have a good story. Hemsworth is a hunk and the girls will be going gaga for that. Get some more buxom females and even more teen males will be hopping on the bandwagon. Keep Branagh as director to ensure the franchise keeps its mature, thematic roots and Shakesperian feel so that older audiences won't lose touch with it. Don't get too cheezy when Thor/Loki come to Earth. Joe Johnston's Captain America just has fail written all over it. Just sounds eerily similar to a Stephen Sommer's G.I Joe to a lesser degree but similar nonetheless.

[drax]

I couldn't agree more. Bucky = :down

I don't follow you, Bucky is essential in the Captain America mythos, I don't see how to make a captain America movie without him.

For the box office, everything will depend, but I feel that the movie will don't work, simply because today, for what I have seen, it's not "cool" to be or to have a character so patriotic, I hope the movie sincerely will have a good success, I really like Captain America, but in France, a good part of the population have an anti-american feeling, so everything will depend how Marvel will sell this movie in the other countries.

There are also the fact that the movie have already a bad reputation, how peoples can have this bad feeling ? I have no idea specially because the movie is not already begun to shoot, for what I have seen it's like that in the internet world, everything is already cool or bad before to have seen the movie itself.

So I think this bad feeling will continue over and over again in various board like a mantra, and simply destroy the reputation of this movie, but I really hope that this movie will have a good success.

[TikkiEXX]

the same people *****ing about the movie on the internet will be in line to see it day 1. if nothing else but to say it sucked. lol

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Still too soon for me to make a call on Captain America. On the other hand, I do think Thor is going to surprise people like Star Trek and Iron Man did.I'm still thinking that Thor is going The Incredible Hulk route. It's early going though so I will undoubtedly change my mind. Hell I think that Cap could easily go that route too.

[Lauryn2000]

Still too soon for me to make a call on Captain America. On the other hand, I do think Thor is going to surprise people like Star Trek and Iron Man did.

Gotta to agree with you on this one....................
Star Trek came outta of nowhere and I enjoyed of last minute of it...:woot:

[Matt]

It's all in the execution. I think the upcoming Iron Man film may do a lot for 21st Century perceptions of male superhero duos and how they can interact in a non-campy, masculine way.

Personally, I don't even want Bucky in this film. His whole name screams "teh gaye".











































"Bucky"....:dry:

:funny: I made that post simply for the sake of causing controversy as this was my Survivor thread and we had to get as many posts in it as we could for a challenge.

[Webhead2006]

i am sure both thor and cap will do well enough. if they score anywhere near 400-500million total box office it will warrent at least one sequel. i see no reason why there couldnt be at least a sequel for the both. More so if they do well in their runs.

[Spider-Fan]

This was really far into the basement, so I decided to bump it up since we're getting closer to the summer season :up:

[Spider-Vader]

I can see this movie breaking 300 million. The trailer seemed of to start the hype train off well.

If the movie gets good word of mouth, I'd be surprised if it doesn't break 300 million. Cap is more popular than IM was before his movie right now, afterall.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

300mil is not an easy number to get. The X-Men were more popular than Iron Man and none of those films have cracked 300mil. Even X2 which the critics and fans and fans of the movie series loved.

200mil is possible but 300mil would take a pretty awesome opening and or word of mouth. I don't see that happening.

[Compi716]

I think we can all agree that, with the death of Bin Laden, Cap's US box office is gonna be BIG.

[Spider-Fan]

I didn't even think of that. You may be right. If we tap into patriotism like after 9/11, Cap will be a beast.

[Compi716]

I wonder if Marvel is slapping themselves right now, thinking, "DAMNIT! If Cap came out this weekend, it would be HUGE!"

[Spider-Fan]

What they get for selling us on Thor first :o

[Spideyfan93]

The death of Osama Bin Ladin isn't a small thing. This news will carry on for months! And Cap releases in July.

[ultimatefan]

I seriously suspect that Bin Laden´s death will increase the hype for CA´s movie a lot. The movie will arrive just when people will be thrilled with pride for the US special forces´ achievement, mostly in US, of course, but also a little in the countries where the threat of Al Qaeda was more palpable, like UK. This was a pretty huge thing, the man has been hunted for almost two decades, even before 9/11.

[The Lizard]

I wonder if Marvel is slapping themselves right now, thinking, "DAMNIT! If Cap came out this weekend, it would be HUGE!"

Is it too late to swap the opening dates for Thor and Captain America? :cwink:


And yes, I'm joking.

[Raiden]

I wonder if Marvel is slapping themselves right now, thinking, "DAMNIT! If Cap came out this weekend, it would be HUGE!"

I hope Americans' feeling of patriotism and euphoria won't dissipate when July arrives.

[Ajendo]

Marvel need to fast track to their marketing blitz campaign immediate ly to capitalize on the emotions of the here and now.

[Raiden]

Marvel need to fast track to their marketing blitz campaign immediate ly to capitalize on the emotions of the here and now.

If I were Marvel, I'd be thinking about putting a few Capt. America TV spots on right now, but without doing it in a heavy-handed fashion. Just creating an awareness for the Capt. America movie should be enough.

[Ajendo]

Since Bin Laden's taen a one way trip to hell, the studio execs must be revising and drawing up new projections for their profit and loss accounts right about now.

[Spideyfan93]

I say they start releasing Cap tv spots in the 3rd week of May, but rarely. Slowly but surely, increase the tv spots by June and by July...have it full force exactly like Thor has been in the last couple weeks.

[Marvel]

I hope Americans' feeling of patriotism and euphoria won't dissipate when July arrives.

This won't be forgotten by July I can tell you that... especially if al qaeda tries anything stupid in retaliation.

[Ajendo]

This is true. NY and Washington were attacked in the September and spider-man was released in may the following year and that was one film that galvanized the US as a country. So, I think emotions and patriotism wouldn't have dwindled by the time Cap comes out in July.

[Timstuff]

I think that Captain America is going to have a great box office run. This is going to be a summer where Americans feel great about their country again, and they couldn't have picked a better year for a Captain America movie other than July 4 2002, the year after the WTC attacks. The two ideal times for a movie like this are A) when the country needs to feel good about itself, and B) when the country does feel good about itself. The same year Americans and the world can celebrate a major victory in the war on terror, we will be getting a movie about a modern American folk hero kicking ass during the biggest war effort our country has ever participated in. Regardless of this movie's overseas grosses I'm sure it will be a huge hit at the domestic box office.

[antonydelfini]

I think many people are exaggerating the foreign countries' hate for America. I'm a Filipino, and I'm a Cap addict, and my family and friends got really excited seeing the Cap trailer more than the X-Men trailer. I'm telling you, I feel that Cap will do more than Iron Man in its opening weekend, and if its quality is as good as Iron Man, then it will even do bigger numbers than Iron Man, domestically and internationally.

[Spider-ManHero12]

Personally, I think Captain Ameica is going to do fantastic at the box office. With what happened with Bin Laden and all, I think it's going to tie in fairly well with Cap.

[Jick09]

It's being hard to me to imagine a great run for CA. I think it can cover its budget but not go way beyond that.
But I don't know how hyped the movie is in North America.

[Spider-Vader]

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought of Osama's death helping Cap at the box office. :D

[kedrell]

Just look at the difference that Star Trek(2009)had between domestic & international(something like two to one) and I think something of similar percentages in likely in store for Cap.

[Jick09]

^That will probably be the case.

What is the movie's budget, by the way? 150 million like Star Trek, too?

[BMM]

As I said in the First Class thread, Captain America and First Class were the only two trailers to receive applause at the midnight showing of Thor I went to. Captain America received the most, and one guy in the back actually jokingly yelled, "We got Osama!" That said, hopefully the applause is indicative of everyone else's anticipation for the movie.

[kedrell]

^I wouldn't use that as a barometer. I saw Thor at a midnight screening tonight and my audience had zero reaction to any of the trailers(Cap, X-Men, Cowboys, Pirates, Columbiana). Neither really indicate anything conclusive at this point.

[TerryTate]

Bigger box office for Captain America. I can see it now, with the dramatic recent spike in our nations patriotism due to the killing of Osama Bin Laden. I can see this as an important contributor to Captain's box office success. Agreed?

[SuperFerret]

:csad:

[DavidRocky]

Bigger box office for Captain America. I can see it now, with the dramatic recent spike in our nations patriotism due to the killing of Osama Bin Laden. I can see this as an important contributor to Captain's box office success. Agreed?


I agree with you!!!.

[KangConquers]

One thing important to remember is Marvel is doing a staggered release for Cap; It's not all coming out on the same date.

This will allow Cap to survive the Potter Monster internationally. Still, I worry about Cap in the box office.


I'm going with 200 million domestic and 130 million foreign.

[Dr. Sid Jawtug]

This movie will blow the American public away. Can't wait for the onslaught of promotion for this movie. With the constant ads for X-Men and GL within the next month. After GL's release just watch how much time Cap will have to advertise as the last large CBM of the summer. Cowboys and Aliens won't hurt Cap and CA:FA will just cash in throughout August. Heed my words, this movie will make the most domestically for CBM's regardless of how it's reviewed.

[souvlaki]

Misread the poll question and thought it was only for domestic. I was a little suspicious as to why so many people had it making between $400 and 500 million. Oops. But I think it will probably come in slightly short of $200 million domestically. I really cannot even begin to guess how this will do internationally.

[KangConquers]

Just look at the difference that Star Trek(2009)had between domestic & international(something like two to one) and I think something of similar percentages in likely in store for Cap.

Do you think Cap will be as successful as Star Trek though? It can have a similar domestic/ ww breakdown and still be less successful.


I personally can't see Cap being as big as Star Trek was in the states.

[kedrell]

I don't see any reason why Cap can't be as big in the states. ST had a serious stigma problem to overcome(trek being too damn nerdy in people's minds) that Cap won't have. I'm guessing $250M domestic and $150M overseas for a $400M WW cume. Not as good as Thor but then it doesn't have Thor's better release date plan coupled with it's breathing room from it's competition. Thor will likey be the #1 superhero film of 2011 WW. But I think Cap will take the domestic superhero crown.

[Spider-Vader]

I too think that Cap will be the biggest domestic superhero movie this year. I'm hoping it'll be third or fourth place after Transformers (God why), Potter & Pirates. Though, Super 8 could come out of nowhere & be a big hit.

As I've said before, Cap is an already recognizable face. He may not be as well known as Spidey or Batman, but he's definitely more well known that Iron Man & Thor were before their movies. I say he's as well known as Green Lantern currently is, but Cap's movie has an upper hand against GL's because the WOM for the Cap trailer has been much better than that of GL's. *Insert 'I KNOW RIGHT? joke here*

[kedrell]

GL is no more 'known' than Iron Man or Thor were. Cap is slightly above all of them.

[S.A.A.D.]

I don't know how anyone could be happy about the movie making alot of money just because one expired. If that happened, to me it would indicate that the movie it's self wasn't that damn good, it would be pretty sad and pathetic imo. As a Captain America fan, it would trouble me. I still think that the movie will make around $400 million worldwide.

[DieSmiling]

GL is no more 'known' than Iron Man or Thor were. Cap is slightly above all of them.

I'd argue Green Lantern is slightly better known than Iron Man and Thor were. I'd say it's around the same level as Fantastic Four.

[S.A.A.D.]

I'd argue Green Lantern is slightly better known than Iron Man and Thor were. I'd say it's around the same level as Fantastic Four.

Let me just say this, if you Google Green Lantern you get 68+ million search results. If you Google Fantastic Four, you only get around 8+ million search results.

[kedrell]

Let me just say this, if you Google Green Lantern you get 68+ million search results. If you Google Fantastic Four, you only get around 8+ million search results.

Which proves exactly nothing. Unless you think it means GL is more known than the FF(which after the FF already had two summer movies..can't possibly be true). In fact, according to the google stats, GL has more search results than Spider-man. Does that mean GL is more known than Spider-Man? GL's search #'s also trumps Superman completely. Is GL more known than Superman?

[Spider-Fan]

I don't know how anyone could be happy about the movie making alot of money just because one expired. If that happened, to me it would indicate that the movie it's self wasn't that damn good, it would be pretty sad and pathetic imo. As a Captain America fan, it would trouble me. I still think that the movie will make around $400 million worldwide.

:huh:

[S.A.A.D.]

Which proves exactly nothing. Unless you think it means GL is more known than the FF(which after the FF already had two summer movies..can't possibly be true). In fact, according to the google stats, GL has more search results than Spider-man. Does that mean GL is more known than Spider-Man? GL's search #'s also trumps Superman completely. Is GL more known than Superman?

No, Green Lantern isn't completely more known than Superman. Is Green Lantern more known than the Fantastic Four? I don't know, it made sense at the time.

[S.A.A.D.]

:huh:

What's confusing about what I said?

[Spider-Fan]

I don't know what you were trying to say.

[S.A.A.D.]

I don't know what you were trying to say.

Oh, I was trying to say that it would be bad if The First Avenger made alot of money because of the death of Osama, and not because it's good.

[Spider-Fan]

NOW I get it :up:

[Spider-Vader]

GL is no more 'known' than Iron Man or Thor were. Cap is slightly above all of them.

Nah, I think the character's appearance in the various cartoons makes him well known. Right now, I'd rank him behind Supers, Bats & Wonder Woman in how well known he is. That might change after this summer.

[kedrell]

Nah, I think the character's appearance in the various cartoons makes him well known. Right now, I'd rank him behind Supers, Bats & Wonder Woman in how well known he is. That might change after this summer.

Well the thing is, most of those GL's in animation weren't Hal Jordan.

[KangConquers]

People who are under the impression that the cartoon really matters to adults are sorely mistaken.

Green Lantern is same level as Iron Man (pre-movie). Slightly above Thor, slightly below Cap and Hulk.

[KangConquers]

GL is no more 'known' than Iron Man or Thor were. Cap is slightly above all of them.

Sadly, Cap used to be just "Slightly" below Spider-Man. Now he's barely above Thor.

I think people are underestimating the 25 and up age bracket's effect on these movies. Thor had a huge percentage of 25+ adults. To people in their 30s and 40s, Cap is a HUGE name. He started to phase out in the 90s, which is why most people here don't remember him as having gigantic name recognition. But the people who were alive when he was an instantly recognizable name are still alive, and still going to movies.

[Vartha]

Well My Dad used to read the ORIGINAL Cap comics in the 40's, but he really doesn't liked any kind of Fantasy films. He's more a Cowboy/Western Film fan when he DOES see movies.

By the way Kang, I'm 50, and a fan. :D

[Spider-Vader]

I guess when it comes to GL, I'm mainly thinking about the teen age group since that's the one I'm in. I do think that character is pretty recognizable for people my age. It'll be interesting to see how both that film & Cap do.

I'd hang out in the GL forum, but alas I don't know crap about DC since I'm a super casual DC fan.

[flickchick85]

I'm a little worried that Cap won't make as much as people are expecting domestically just because A.) like so many this summer, it's sandwiched between two other blockbusters, one of which could be the biggest of the year, and B.) It's the last of the superheroes, which means IF people start feeling superhero fatigue as the season goes on, Cap is the one that's gonna suffer from it the most.

I still think it will at least do well enough to warrant a sequel (say, $160-$190m domestic), but it might not do as well as the others. Of course, I'd be thrilled to be wrong, because I think it looks great. And that said, I think it will do BETTER than many are expecting overseas. If an American-ized take on WWII like Inglourious Basterds can make $200m overseas alone, then I think a WWII-set blockbuster like Cap, even an "America-slanted" one, could at least pull in $200-240m overseas as well. So while I agree with the predictions of $400m worldwide, I think a lower percentage of that will come from the domestic returns than many people are predicting.

[kedrell]

Cap's budget is also $10M less than Thor's. Less to make up. Honestly, anything $350M+ WW gets you a sequel for sure.

[kedrell]

BOM seems to think Cap'll do $270M OS.

http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3161&p=.htm

I think that's a bit optimistic. That's very near where Thor's going to end up($275M-$300M). But I'd love it if they are right.

[KangConquers]

BOM seems to think Cap'll do $270M OS.

http://admin.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3161&p=.htm

I think that's a bit optimistic. That's very near where Thor's going to end up($275M-$300M). But I'd love it if they are right.

I was just to post that. It was kind of shocking to see a major publication say that. At first I thought they meant total, but then I realized it was sans-North America.

After The Hulk movies, I am always very skeptical about new comic book characters chances; Hulk has huge name recognition, and failed to garner enough money to warrant a direct sequel either time.

Captain America, in my eyes, has a lot of stigma attached to him. Everyone knows who he is, but a lot of people think the idea is "dorky" compared to "cool" superheroes like Wolverine, Iron Man, and Batman. And that's within his own country!

I want Cap to be huge; he's my favorite superhero of all time. But on the flipside, I want to be realistic. I still think 350 million worldwide is a fair estimate, and will likely result in more Captain America movies. The 520-550 million that would result from Cap making 270 OS would be nice, but I just don't want to set myself up for disappointment.

[Spider-Fan]

I was just to post that. It was kind of shocking to see a major publication say that. At first I thought they meant total, but then I realized it was sans-North America.

After The Hulk movies, I am always very skeptical about new comic book characters chances; Hulk has huge name recognition, and failed to garner enough money to warrant a direct sequel either time.

Captain America, in my eyes, has a lot of stigma attached to him. Everyone knows who he is, but a lot of people think the idea is "dorky" compared to "cool" superheroes like Wolverine, Iron Man, and Batman. And that's within his own country!

I want Cap to be huge; he's my favorite superhero of all time. But on the flipside, I want to be realistic. I still think 350 million worldwide is a fair estimate, and will likely result in more Captain America movies. The 520-550 million that would result from Cap making 270 OS would be nice, but I just don't want to set myself up for disappointment.

The Hulk is a less engaging concept for the average movie goer than Cap is. The Hulk is a CGI monster, and it has hurt people in caring about Hulk as a character. Money can't keep Hulk on screen long enough for us to connect with him. Cap is always human and has an ugly duckling story that is more relatable.

[moe]

the thing about CAP in over-seas markets is that it isn't fantastical or cgi heavy to drag in the viewers that pay for that... nor is it a historic epic (medivel war)... its kinda in between and that doesn't work... its gonna be tough... domestically it can do solid... and will depend on word of mouth to carry it.

[marcvader]

I'm hoping for a upper 300's run. The release date worries me though.

[kedrell]

And considering the unusual baggage that the Hulk has(in live action films) I'd say it's not a good idea to use him in any way as a measuring bar for other heroes. If TIH had been the debut movie instead of Anghulk then he'd probably have a pretty decent sized franchise by now. of course then that would've meant that Universal would likely have never given him up.

[DieSmiling]

I'm hoping for a upper 300's run. The release date worries me though.

Yeah, domestically my biggest worry is the release date. One week after HP is a bit scary -- I think the final Potter is going to be a juggernaut.

I think Thor benefited from it's release date and I think Cap might be hurt by it.

[marcvader]

I think Cap would have made more than what Thor is making right now had it been released in May

[Superhero 101]

As long as Cap makes 400 million i am going to be happy!

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Cap would have made more than what Thor is making right now had it been released in MayI've been pondering that idea too. I haven't firmly come down on one side but I've been thinking about it.

[Spider-Vader]

I think HP should of been released in November. Perhaps on November 16, since that's the day that Sorcerer's Stone was released a decade ago. Oh well, too late now.

[KangConquers]

Box Office Mojo is predicting a 470 total gross for Cap.

[Spider-Vader]

Sounds good! Is that higher than what the predicted outcome for Thor will be?

[Tony Stark]

I think HP should of been released in November. Perhaps on November 16, since that's the day that Sorcerer's Stone was released a decade ago. Oh well, too late now.

They should have all been released in November, but greedy WB was trying to make more money. HP works best in the States as a holiday movie and always has.

[KangConquers]

Sounds good! Is that higher than what the predicted outcome for Thor will be?

They predicted basically the same. Thor making more abroad, Cap making more domestically.

[The Morningstar]

I think 400 mill would be a great number for Cap. Harry Potter will be a bit of a problem though.

[Whiskey Tango]

This is me in the Green Lantern thread trying to be optimistic about Cap's chances during week 2 of the last Harry Squatter, The Boy Who Pees Sitting Down movie

Potter will make obscene amounts of money it's first week and then calm his bespectacled ass down for week 2, which is when Cap comes out. Not saying Harry won't be a greasy leech but he won't be the curbstomp you DC tools are praying for either. The kids'll flood theaters in week 1 and be done with it.

I like to think Cap can hold his own but Potter is certain to be monstrous. I have heard about how the Potter movies are really front loaded that first weekend but is there truth to that? Is there any hope for Cap? Make me feel better, eh?

[KangConquers]

This is me in the Green Lantern thread trying to be optimistic about Cap's chances during week 2 of the last Harry Squatter, The Boy Who Pees Sitting Down movie



I like to think Cap can hold his own but Potter is certain to be monstrous. I have heard about how the Potter movies are really front loaded that first weekend but is there truth to that? Is there any hope for Cap? Make me feel better, eh?

Green Lantern fans are just envious because their Ryan Reynolds starring crapfest is inevitably going to be the dud of 2011.

[Doctor Jones]

How do we know it's going to be a crapfest? I'm sure you have a crystal ball somewhere to give us proof of that. If you do I will completely believe you.

[moe]

oops.. said 100-199.. though it was just overseas... but world wide.. should be over 400 hopefully.

[Dwarf Slayer]

I like to think Cap can hold his own but Potter is certain to be monstrous. I have heard about how the Potter movies are really front loaded that first weekend but is there truth to that? Is there any hope for Cap? Make me feel better, eh?

Captain America is going to be significantly hurt going up against Potter. Deathly Hallows Part 1 is the 10th highest grossing movie of all time. Marvel's biggest success (Iron Man) doesn't even break the top 50. Not to mention that TDH pt 1 was also the second highest grossing of the franchise, only second to the first movie.

On an international level, it's almost certain that Cap will be slaughtered by Potter. Domestically, it might fare a little bit better. That said, this is the last installment of Potter and there is definitely a curiosity factor. Deathly Hallows Pt 1 has already shown that people already more interested in this last installment than they have been in previous movies. Expect Potter to break a lot of records and destroy anything in its path.

Both Cap and GL fans need to prepare themselves for the worst. I don't think both films will be outright flops, but they won't make nearly as much as they need to. GL is definitely the worst off. GL needs to show Warner Bros that DC properties can succeed outside of Batman and Superman. Captain America at least has The Avengers to fall back on. GL can fall back on the international box office though, it has more chances of succeeding there than Captain America does.

[CaptainStacy]

Captain America is going to be significantly hurt going up against Potter. Deathly Hallows Part 1 is the 10th highest grossing movie of all time. Marvel's biggest success (Iron Man) doesn't even break the top 50. Not to mention that TDH pt 1 was also the second highest grossing of the franchise, only second to the first movie.

On an international level, it's almost certain that Cap will be slaughtered by Potter. Domestically, it might fare a little bit better. That said, this is the last installment of Potter and there is definitely a curiosity factor. Deathly Hallows Pt 1 has already shown that people already more interested in this last installment than they have been in previous movies. Expect Potter to break a lot of records and destroy anything in its path.

Both Cap and GL fans need to prepare themselves for the worst. I don't think both films will be outright flops, but they won't make nearly as much as they need to. GL is definitely the worst off. GL needs to show Warner Bros that DC properties can succeed outside of Batman and Superman. Captain America at least has The Avengers to fall back on. GL can fall back on the international box office though, it has more chances of succeeding there than Captain America does.

Very true!

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Captain America and Harry Potter can both succeed. People often overstate the competition thing. All films have competition, thats what summer is about but alot of them succeed regardless. Spider-Man and Star Wars made 400 and 300mil respectively and came out within two weeks of eachother. Despite Avatar being on it's way to 750mil, Sherklock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks managed to make over 200mil in the winter months.

The Hangover 2 was a monster and direct competition for BridesMaids and yet that film still had a great drop this pass weekend and will sail pass 100mil overall. If people want to see Captain America they will go see it. Even if Potter makes 350mil, Cap can still do over 200mil.

[Spider-Fan]

Agreed. It may hurt Cap's opening, but that doesn't mean the Potter crowd won't drop and not see Cap. Cap just needs good WOM.

[monnie]

They have changed the released for the Green lantern in Australia to the 4 August and we get cap on the 28th july so it well be interesting to see which one does the best.

[Whiskey Tango]

Captain America and Harry Potter can both succeed. People often overstate the competition thing. All films have competition, thats what summer is about but alot of them succeed regardless. Spider-Man and Star Wars made 400 and 300mil respectively and came out within two weeks of eachother. Despite Avatar being on it's way to 750mil, Sherklock Holmes and Alvin and the Chipmunks manged to make over 200mil.

The Hangover 2 was a monster and direct competition for BridesMaids and yet that film still had a great drop this pass weekend and sail pass 100mil overall. If people want to see Captain America they will go see it. Even if Potter makes 350mil, Cap can still do over 200mil.

This is a good point & one that I haven't considered.

[Green Day]

165m domestically
155m overseas
320m worldwide

[Spider-Vader]

I think Cap will do atleast 200 million domestically.

[Marvel]

Green Lantern fans are just envious because their Ryan Reynolds starring crapfest is inevitably going to be the dud of 2011.

I really really hope Green Lantern flops or at least underperforms. It's not an anti-DC thing, it's an anti cheesy CGI video game movie thing. I hate to see mixed messages sent to hollywood at this point. The genre needs to see more First Class efforts and less Jonah Hex Green Lantern cheese.

I have to have faith in audiences that they'll ignore Green Lantern in droves.

[Whiskey Tango]

I don't wish ill on any film, especially supers movies. GL looks pretty awesome to me. Certainly nowhere near Jonah Hex territory.

[marcvader]

Never wish anything bad for a hero flick only the best. Keep em coming Hollywood.

[The Morningstar]

I don't hope GL fails. But if it does, I wouldn't be able to help myself from laughing at the raging DC fanboys on the GL forum. I'm sure I don't need to mention their names.

[Bruce_Begins]

I really really hope Green Lantern flops or at least underperforms. It's not an anti-DC thing, it's an anti cheesy CGI video game movie thing. I hate to see mixed messages sent to hollywood at this point. The genre needs to see more First Class efforts and less Jonah Hex Green Lantern cheese.

I have to have faith in audiences that they'll ignore Green Lantern in droves.

I don't hope GL fails. But if it does, I wouldn't be able to help myself from laughing at the raging DC fanboys on the GL forum. I'm sure I don't need to mention their names.

I have watched almost all the Marvel movie till now. including Thor (which was good.) but I really hate such comments, the GL movie does not look like Video game CGI, and it is different type of a Superhero movie but I think that it looks good and I wish it all the success.

You two are doing great job of alienating DC fans, from watching Cap. America movie. :whatever:

[The Morningstar]

Wha...? Our comments are gonna stop people watching Cap? If so, those people need to sort themselves out.

And I just said I hope GL doesn't fail. Going from the last 2 trailers, I think it's looks pretty awesome.

But, if it does fail, I'll laugh at the raging DC fanboys that frequent the GL forum, who regularly stir up DC vs Marvel crap. I won't mention their names, anyone with half a brain can figure out who i'm talking about. Rest assured, you're not one of them Bruce Begins.

As far as i'm concerned, the whole DC vs Marvel thing is pathetic. People shouldn't pick one COMPANY over the other. Because that is what they are really, just companies that gobble our money up. Why show loyalty to corporations that don't really give a **** about their customers other than seeing them as a source of monetary gain? People should read books based on whether they are good books or not. Not read books based on what company they are from.

DC fans or Marvel fans? No, such people shouldn't exist as far as i'm concerned. It should just be comic book fans.

[Green Day]

I agree the moringstar
I not big comic book fan. I never read a comic book but I am planning to buy a couple of graphic novels soon
Anways to people who hate DC characters because the DC or hate Marvel characters because they are Marvel. It is stupid. Stan Lee and Bob Kane were good friends and enjoy each other comics. Most people who work for comic book over the years enjoy the other comic book characters as well.
This whole DC versus Marvel thing would be like I like harry potter therefore I have to hate lord of the rings.
If you guys are true comic book fans would want comic book movies from both companies to be well received and do good at the box office because it helps out the industry

[Spider-Vader]

I really hope Green Lantern doesn't fail. If it does DC/WB will hide behind Batman & Superman for another 20 years. Those two companies are like turtles, they're just now peaking out of their shells. If GL fails, DC fans are doomed. Plus I want my damn Flash movie, if Reynolds played a DC hero it should have been Wally.

[The Morningstar]

Wally wouldn't be the Flash in the Flash movie anyway. Geoff Johns wouldn't allow it.

[Spider-Vader]

Stop ruining my dreams. :(

:oldrazz:

[ultimatefan]

Im rooting for GL to do well, but I suspect more and more CA may be the big champ of this year´s comic book movies - I don´t count Transformers, as far as I´m concerned they´re a toy movie.

[captainrogers]

I hope both GL and Cap do well. I have my reservations about GL, but I hope it surprises me like First Class did. I'd love to go Four for Four in superhero flicks this year.

[Doctor Jones]

GL needs to succeed. For the love of God, it does. Because this movie is expensive. And a sequel would be even more expensive. You can't cut the budget back on a sequel to GL.

I'm alot less woried for Cap. Sure it has its release a week after but it pretty much has the next weeks to itself. C&A won't do so well, with Conan, the same.

It just needs to get a good opening weekend off from HP, and hopefully it's good so WOM can spread and people will see it during August as well.

[Spider-Fan]

I have reservations about GL also, but I do hope it is great. I've been happy with Thor and XFC, and I had absolutely NO hype for XFC. I hope the trend continues and we get 2 more great comic films! Plus, I want a DC film not about Batman or Superman to succeed. So we get some movies about new characters.

[Spider-Vader]

I'll probably support GL unless the early WOM is horrendous. I don't see it getting horrible WOM though, at worst it'll be the worst reviewed superhero movie of the year. Perhaps in the low '70s?

[Spider-Fan]

I think GL at worst will be considered just okay or average. I don't see critics hating it.

[JB-the-Hunter]

When Evans came out to present whatever he presented at the Twilight Awards, he was referred to as Captain America and got a reasonably big applause. That's a good sign.

[Raiden]

I have reservations about GL also, but I do hope it is great. I've been happy with Thor and XFC, and I had absolutely NO hype for XFC. I hope the trend continues and we get 2 more great comic films! Plus, I want a DC film not about Batman or Superman to succeed. So we get some movies about new characters.

I'm a Marvel fan, but I also watch DC movies and I hope GL will succeed. Right now the superhero genre needs to show that movies from this genre are still moneymakers, thus will ensure more movies greenlighted for the future. And because DC/WB is so gun-shy about any movies not based on Batman and Superman, if GL tanks or fell below expectation I doubt they would ever make a Flash or any other movies. It's kind of funny to see movies already made for superheroes like Punisher, Ghost Rider, and Elektra and yet the more famous characters like Wonder Woman and Flash still waiting for their big break.

[Spider-Vader]

That's all DC right there. DC/WB seem not to like to take chances, though it's clearly working for Marvel.

[SurfinBird]

My 2 Cents -

Opening Weekend: 70Million
Domestic Total: 230Million
Foreign: 280Million
World Wide Total: 510Million

[Excelsior.]

That's all DC right there. DC/WB seem not to like to take chances, though it's clearly working for Marvel.
That is all MARVEL studios makes. WB makes other films so they don't have (need) to focus all their creative energy on comic films.

[flickchick85]

I don't know, I think handing the guy who made Memento and Insomnia, two little crime/mystery stories, the reigns to your most gigantic superhero franchise seems like kind of a big risk.

[Excelsior.]

I don't know, I think handing the guy who made Memento and Insomnia, two little crime/mystery stories, the reigns to your most gigantic superhero franchise seems like kind of a big risk.
Hiring talented up and comers is standard practice for franchise films now.

[The Morningstar]

My 2 Cents -

Opening Weekend: 70Million
Domestic Total: 230Million
Foreign: 280Million
World Wide Total: 510Million

No way in hell this movie makes more internationally than US.

I think it'll make well over 200 million the US. Maybe like, 150 million international.

World wide something liike 500 million, give or take.

[DarkKnight88]

Hiring talented up and comers is standard practice for franchise films now.

It always was. Richard Donner and Tim Burton weren't blockbuster directors when they were hired for their respective superhero films. In fact, Burton was a huge gamble at the time.

[flickchick85]

It's not "standard" to take a risk on up-and-coming indie directors, it's just a bit more common now. Choosing guys like Martin Campbell for GL, Bryan Singer for Superman, McG for Terminator, Michael Bay for Transformers, Chris Columbus for Harry Potter, etc. were textbook "playing it safe" type of choices. Those choices tend to produce some not-awful-but-underwhelming results (we'll soon find out on GL). Snyder on MoS kinda falls into that category too, even though he seems a riskier choice now than any "unproven" up-and-comer would be, imo.

Marvel has only been 50/50 with those types of risks, imo. Branagh and Favreau were definitely gambles (though Branagh was still a well-established talent), but Leterrier was a very generic "action director" choice for TIH, imo. And Johnston, while I think he'll do a good job, is a pretty "safe and dependable" type of choice too...who just happens to excel at period adventure stuff.

Other than maybe Singer with X-Men, I haven't seen such a big gamble as Nolan - who had never written or directed anything other than small psychological crime stories - taken in quite some time. Even Joss Whedon at least has experience with genre stuff, Donner had done a supernatural thriller that was the 4th highest-grossing film of its year pre-Superman, and and Burton had done decent-sized studio fantasies with Pee Wee and Beetlejuice.

[Doctor Jones]

Singer did The Usual Suspects and another film before doing X-Men. He was good with ensembles and I think that's one of the reasons he was picked. And he must have been cheap at the time. I'd say that was a gamble too.

Non superhero related, but Peter Jackson was a huge gamble for LOTR. A guy who made dirt budget gross out horror films? Peter who?

[Marvel]

I'm a Marvel fan, but I also watch DC movies and I hope GL will succeed. Right now the superhero genre needs to show that movies from this genre are still moneymakers, thus will ensure more movies greenlighted for the future. And because DC/WB is so gun-shy about any movies not based on Batman and Superman, if GL tanks or fell below expectation I doubt they would ever make a Flash or any other movies. It's kind of funny to see movies already made for superheroes like Punisher, Ghost Rider, and Elektra and yet the more famous characters like Wonder Woman and Flash still waiting for their big break.

AGAIN, it's not a DC thing but a BAD movie thing. Green Lantern looks like absolute crap. Maybe I'm wrong but there's not one thing in the trailers that doesn't look like video game cheese. THAT is why we need it to underperform. FF: Rise of the Silver Surfer was cheesy crap and Fox did NOT push through another effort but is going to reboot it right. Why would anyone want Green Lantern to make money if it's going to promote more over-the-top fare that will return comic based films back to the Shumacher Batman days or give us light GI Joe level garbage???

[cryptic name]

I think Green Lantern looks great and hope it does good business. I'd like more comic adaptations with the balls to embrace everything about the source material like GL seems to to.

[Marvel]

I think Green Lantern looks great and hope it does good business. I'd like more comic adaptations with the balls to embrace everything about the source material like GL seems to to.

http://www.observer.com/2011/06/the-green-lantern-is-a-blockbuster-bust/

Other critics that are fans are saying...

"Fails on so many levels, both as a movie and as a comics adaptation, that it's easily one of the bigger disappointments of the summer."

That's what I'm talking about. Not a DC thing.

[Tony Stark]

It's really sad they screwed that up. GL could have been DC/Warner's Iron Man, instead he turns up as their Fantastic Four.

In any case, I hope that Cap works where GL failed. With Iron Man and Thor being great films, if Cap succeeds, it will make it much easier for Avengers.

[Vartha]

I've yet to see GL, so I can't judge, tho in an odd way I was hoping it was ok just for DC/WB to somehow pull out of their Superhero movie slump.
I have yet to hear what my bud from the Kubert School thought of GL and he's a GL fan.

[Infinity9999x]

I'm really hoping it ends up at least all right, simply because I want to see comic films succeed. If it's on the level of X1 then I'd be happy. That film got lukewarm reviews but was pretty well received by the general public. What's worrying me is that many of the main complaints seem to be with the writing. It's one thing if the SPX aren't quite up to par but the story isn't bad. If the story's bad...then you're in trouble.

Still, I've had a better feeling about Cap for a while now, and I'm really hoping he does well. Especially since this movie will have a direct effect on the Avengers. If Cap ends up being close to the popularity the first Iron Man film had, then the Avengers is going to be huge. Heck, even if he hits the same level as Thor (still popular, but not quite as big as IM) then it's going to be big.

But Cap can't be received lukewarm or poorly, especially since he's the leader of the group.

[Whiskey Tango]

That's what I'm talking about. Not a DC thing.

You don't like it. You want it to flop. We get it. It's crystal clear. Ok?

[Yellow Cyclone]

hopefully GL getting crapped on doesn't cause a backlash against cap

[HaloCod27]

I have this feeling it will actually open second, with Harry Potter still being first.

The person who scheduled Cap after Harry Potter is asking to get fired...:doh:

It would have been a perfect November film.

[Spider-Fan]

It's a crowded summer. Only other options were put it in June, where it would drop more quickly ala TIH, put it out with bad effects before Thor, or...put it after Potter and hope it has legs. The Potter option of the 3 is the best one.

[Ponyboy]

I'm guessing about $325 million worldwide. If the least people outside of America will go see it to take the piss out of it... And then find that they like it. ;)

[Marvel]

hopefully GL getting crapped on doesn't cause a backlash against cap

That's my whole point here. I'm not over on the Green Lantern board saying this trying to tick people off or try to rain on their parade. I'm saying it on the Cap board because the sooner GL is gone from public consciousness the better for everyone.

I see Rex Reed say this about GL... "In the brainless world of cinematic comic books gone bad, it's as bad as it gets" all that does is give ALL comic book films a bad name. I'm SO glad Cap is not coming out July 4th after all. The more time between the two the better.

[Spider-Fan]

GL's bad press wouldn't effect Cap. Cap is another entity, and I don't think GL failing will hurt Cap. It is not like it is a DC movie or anything. It is Marvel, and the Marvel name is riding high after Thor.

[Tony Stark]

GL's bad press wouldn't effect Cap. Cap is another entity, and I don't think GL failing will hurt Cap. It is not like it is a DC movie or anything. It is Marvel, and the Marvel name is riding high after Thor.

If anything GL being a stinker lowers the bar so hopefully Cap shines in comparison. Although I hope Cap is good in it's own right.

[Doctor Jones]

I do believe the GA love that first trailer. As Jamie mentioned. I keep hearing good stuff in the theater like, "That looks awesome!" and such. I think the WWII setting helps a lot.

[Spider-Vader]

Supposedly the a preview of the film got great feedback with some saying it's better than Iron Man 1. That'll definitely help this movie out in the box office. The main reason Iron Man did so well is because of it's WOM.

Man, it's a great year to be a Marvel fan. DC, not so much. But hey, atleast Batman: Arkham City comes out this year for any comic fans/gamers like myself.

[S.A.A.D.]

^What film got good feedback? The First Avenger: Captain America?! :huh:

[Whiskey Tango]

^What film got good feedback? The First Avenger: Captain America?! :huh:

That's what this thread is about, yeah.

[Kokomo29]

I have a feeling there is going to be a lot of good press about Evans' performance. I have a good feeling that he's really gonna nail the role perfectly.

[Doctor Jones]

I do feel he will be the one who gets more criticism than Hemsworth and RDJ for his portrayal. But I hope he nails it too.

[Chewy]

I do feel he will be the one who gets more criticism than Hemsworth and RDJ for his portrayal. But I hope he nails it too.He's going to knock it out of the park.

[Doctor Jones]

That would be ideal. Three leads all exceptionally cast? Man, if that happens, you know Marvel is doing something right.

[Marvin]

I assume he won't be playing himself in this, that always helps reviews.
For that it will stand out from past marvel films.

[KangConquers]

Does anyone think Captain America can have the break out that the other three major superhero movies have failed to have?

Thor failed to break 200 M domestic, and I doubt that either X-Men or Green Lantern will. It'd be nice to see Captain America break into the big time. He's definitely a more famous character than Iron Man was before 2008 (though I understand fully why Iron Man was a break out hit.)

I'd love to see Captain America do a quarter billion domestic, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Matt]

Not with Potter right in front of it, I'm afraid.

[HaloCod27]

Anything big coming after Cap? If not, it can have good legs if the movie succeeds. I'm actually expecting it to open second, but maybe become first after a while?

[Matt]

Anything big coming after Cap? If not, it can have good legs if the movie succeeds. I'm actually expecting it to open second, but maybe become first after a while?

Cowboys and Aliens comes the following weekend. That is the wild card. Some analysts are predicting it could be like the original Pirates of the Caribbean, others are predicting it will bomb. It all depends on how Universal markets it and what kind of word of mouth it gets.

Regardless, I can't see Cap going from second to first in its second or third weekend. Potter will have good legs as it is the final installation of the franchise. I think Marvel made a huge mistake in trying to take on Potter. They would've been better off releasing on July 4th. Granted, it is a Monday, but it is a holiday Monday. Aside from the symbollic nature of it, it would be five days away from Transformers and two weeks before Potter. I think it would fare far better being after Transformers than Potter.

Hell, Marvel may have been smart to have even gone as far as November for Thanksgiving weekend. Granted, they'd be competing with Twilight but it could've been the perfect counter-programming.

I can't shake the feeling that Marvel made a huge mistake in picking the release date that they did.

[Spider-Vader]

If everyone else agrees that Cap is just as good as Iron Man, I think it will do fine. I love the Potter series & have no doubt that it'll be huge (with it being the biggest film of the year worldwide & possibly domestically), but I think in the US it'll be like the other Potter films where it has a huge opening weekend & it'll go to second the following weekend.

[Spider-Fan]

Cowboys and Aliens comes the following weekend. That is the wild card. Some analysts are predicting it could be like the original Pirates of the Caribbean, others are predicting it will bomb. It all depends on how Universal markets it and what kind of word of mouth it gets.

Regardless, I can't see Cap going from second to first in its second or third weekend. Potter will have good legs as it is the final installation of the franchise. I think Marvel made a huge mistake in trying to take on Potter. They would've been better off releasing on July 4th. Granted, it is a Monday, but it is a holiday Monday. Aside from the symbollic nature of it, it would be five days away from Transformers and two weeks before Potter. I think it would fare far better being after Transformers than Potter.

Hell, Marvel may have been smart to have even gone as far as November for Thanksgiving weekend. Granted, they'd be competing with Twilight but it could've been the perfect counter-programming.

I can't shake the feeling that Marvel made a huge mistake in picking the release date that they did.

I don't think Potter will kill Cap. If Cap is getting WOM like it is from the test screens, it will be fine. Plus, it will have a new trailer with TF3, which will be the 2nd or 3rd biggest film of the summer. I think Cap will perform better than people here expect it to. BO experts are tracking it as making about what Thor will make WW. I agree with those predictions, in which case, Cap will make decent money!

[EML420]

Im worried I really want this movie to be huge but TF3 and Potter are big competiton but arent the crowds different Potter fans are all over in a sense but. TF3 and Cap are more or less shooting for the same audience. And Cowboys and Aliens every time there is trailer for it in the theater people always laugh when the name is said Ive seen the trailer a few times been going to the movies a lot this summer and the people who laugh are the older crowd. I plan on seeing this movie twice for sure once with little brother then with my friends.

[Marvel]

I don't think Potter will kill Cap. If Cap is getting WOM like it is from the test screens, it will be fine. Plus, it will have a new trailer with TF3, which will be the 2nd or 3rd biggest film of the summer. I think Cap will perform better than people here expect it to. BO experts are tracking it as making about what Thor will make WW. I agree with those predictions, in which case, Cap will make decent money!

I'd much rather take on Potter week two than TF3. Potter has a huge following but nothing is as front loaded as that franchise. If you haven't seen the other Potter films, you will NOT see this one. There is absolutely no possibility for growth, not that it needs it. It's a known commodity.

Plus, you'd have to deal with BOTH releasing on July 4th and have to overcome a bit of the Green Lantern taint. Now, there's room to breath and Cowboys & Aliens WILL underperform. I'll bet Cap week two takes a tight box office battle from week one C & A.

[SPIDERMAN117]

I say, this will be the first comic book movie this summer to break make triple digit numbers opening weekend.

[Bruce Malone]

^^^

Not a chance. No one marvel including is expecting this movies to open bigger than Iron-man 1 did.

I think domestically it will make similar money to thor but i don't see its international numbers being as good.

[KangConquers]

If they'd given Captain America the kick-off summer date, it would've done a quarter billion domestic, guaranteed.

Spider-Fan, what are these early screenings I keep hearing about? Can anyone provide evidence that these screenings have been going that well?

[JB-the-Hunter]

It's far off from what you guys are assuming, but it's my opinion, so whatever.
I strongly believe it'll do much better at the foreign box office than you guys are expecting.

Domestic: 310mil
Foreign: 350mil
Worldwide: 660mil

[Raiden]

So the opening weekend is as followed:

Thor: 65 mil
X-Men First Class: 55 mil
Green Lantern: 52 mil

Looks like a steady drop in terms of OW for movies of this genre, but I think Capt. America will reverse the trend. I'm expecting Cap to get around 60-70 mil for its OW. What do you think?

Btw, what is the reaction from the test screening? I'd like to know.

[kedrell]

Cap should at least be able to match Thor's OW domestically, even with Potter on it's back.

[Fanticon]

cap just might save the superhero genre this summer. not that its going anywhere i know, but as far as this summer is concerned, superheroes are limping with battered egos on their way to dvd/bluray. I think it has great potential and would love for it to atleast crack 200m.

[Spider-Vader]

I still think if Cap gets the WOM that Iron Man did, it will become a huge hit. Possibly even breaking 300 million domestically. Cap is a much more accessible hero than Thor & the movie isn't tainted by two crappy predecessors (like First Class) & hopefully it won't have a horrible critical response like GL.

[KangConquers]

I still think if Cap gets the WOM that Iron Man did, it will become a huge hit. Possibly even breaking 300 million domestically. Cap is a much more accessible hero than Thor & the movie isn't tainted by two crappy predecessors (like First Class) & hopefully it won't have a horrible critical response like GL.

Cap has the benefit of being grounded in reality in a summer of Norse Gods who live on a Rainbow, Blue midgets who harness the power of will, giant cgi robots, and wizards. He's also a bigger name than Thor and Green Lantern.

[Chewy]

cap just might save the superhero genre this summer. not that its going anywhere i know, but as far as this summer is concerned, superheroes are limping with battered egos on their way to dvd/bluray. I think it has great potential and would love for it to atleast crack 200m.
Thor did well for itself. I have a sneaking suspicion Cap will as well.

Then next summer these characters go from the superhero B-list to the A-list alongside Iron Man.

[Spideyfan93]

Captain America is a B Lister? I could understand Thor and Iron Man before their respected films, but hasn't Cap been one of the more popular superheroes?

Everyone knows Cap one way or another...whether it be as a hero or as a symbol of America.

[Chewy]

It depends how you define the A/B list split.

I think the only true A-listers are Superman, Batman, Spider-Man, and Wolverine.

Cap is basically Marvel's Wonder Woman, in that everyone knows who he is and what his costume looks like but not much else about him.

[Spideyfan93]

Cap is basically Marvel's Wonder Woman, in that everyone knows who he is and what his costume looks like but not much else about him.


Yeah, you nailed it haha!

[Spider-Fan]

If they'd given Captain America the kick-off summer date, it would've done a quarter billion domestic, guaranteed.

Spider-Fan, what are these early screenings I keep hearing about? Can anyone provide evidence that these screenings have been going that well?

They've been mentioned on twitter and such from people, and early buzz is good. However, I have no links.

[Spider-Fan]

So the opening weekend is as followed:

Thor: 65 mil
X-Men First Class: 55 mil
Green Lantern: 52 mil

Looks like a steady drop in terms of OW for movies of this genre, but I think Capt. America will reverse the trend. I'm expecting Cap to get around 60-70 mil for its OW. What do you think?

Btw, what is the reaction from the test screening? I'd like to know.

I'm thinking 75 if I had to guess right now is my prediction.

[Guerrilla]

what did ironman earn OW? I would assume captain america will perform at least as well as thor and more than likely equal or surpass ironman. Plus, I think he is the more recognized character. Im going to guess 78 million opening weekend (domestic). I know personally I will be seeing it at least twice, and I will be advising friends to do the same.

[Spider-Fan]

Iron Man made 98mil (just under 100 mil) and IM2 made 128mil OW. Cap will not do that, LOL! I think 75 is a very reasonable prediction. Iron Man is an anamoly. It won't happen for Marvel again until Avengers.

[Guerrilla]

Woah! 98 million! Okay, maybe not as good as ironman but still better than thor.

[Spider-Fan]

I think so, too. Iron Man is an anamoly. No one expected it to be that big, and it did it in May when those type of numbers are easier to achieve than Cap's July date will be. If Cap were to make 100 mil, it would have to on Potter weekend 2. I think Cap can top Potter opening weekend, but near 100mil would be SHOCKING.

[Suzanne78]

As of now, unless someone has better numbers, boxoffice.com has Cap tracking at $47mil. However, the marketing blitz has yet to kick in, so we'll see if the promotion can get the numbers up to at least Thor levels.

It seems that the site primarily tracks buzz in terms of trailer viewings, Twitter/Facebook posts...etc. I'd personally like to see at least $70-75mil the first weekend, but I'm thinking it'll be closer to $65-70.

[howler]

The hype that Cap has had in the U.S. should cause it to open at 1 here. By that weekend all of the Potter fans will have seen Harry three times and ready for something different.

[Chewy]

That's not tracking, it is a *guess*. It doesn't really carry any more weight than me saying it'll open to 12m (i'm not actually saying that, just illustrating my point)

Tracking will start to show up next weekend, when the movie is 4 weeks out. :yay:

[Suzanne78]

To be honest, I wasn't sure exactly how "official" their numbers were. I know when I talk about Captain America on Twitter, I don't necessarily use consistent terms like #captainamerica or #firstavenger. So good that it's really mostly guesswork at this point!

I'm of the mind that HP7 open the week before might not outright hurt Captain America. As was stated, HP's legs are notoriously bad, pretty much averaging out to be about 60% or greater in its second week. It might be a tight race, since HP is looking to shatter records the week before, but I'm optimistic about Cap's shot at debuting inthe top spot.

A lot of it will depend on how Paramount promotes it too...

[Spider-Fan]

New trailer with TF3 will help. TF3 will be a beast.

[Chewy]

I think how Paramount will promote is fairly evident at this point. Based on the early screening reactions I will assume they believe they have a quality film. So they'll attach trailer 2 to Transformers, allow reviews to be posted within a week or two of the start of July, and throw posters up everywhere while playing TV spots as frequently as possible.

In terms of *official* tracking, i'd check the site geekweek.com on Thursdays for his tracking report (Cap won't show up there until next Thursday, ie June 30, but it'll be there each Thursday afterwards) and check the hsx.com "Movie" forums on Sundays starting that same week (July 3, and again, it'll be there every Sunday afterwards). The first is a report on studio tracking that measures public awareness, public interest, etc. The second is a report based on estimates of the opening weekend put out by theater owners.

[Frodo]

Hopefully , if the film is good, they won't try to hide the positive early word. I'm a bit concerned that in the wake of GH, Thor, XFC and GL, that these films may have reached a saturation point, and the more audiences know that Cap is a quality film with a fresh story, the better I think its chances will be to hook people into the thearters. I think this is no time to play things close to the chest when it comes to displaying the postive buzz over the film.

[Spider-Fan]

There will be reviews posted before it comes out. I am sure the TV spots prior to the film will share critics glowing praise if it gets that kind of praise.

[Hurm...]

If Cap has a great word of mouth, I think it will be a monster at the box office like Iron Man.

[Tony Stark]

The bar has been lowered to the floor with GL boming, so I hope Cap freaking knocks it out of the park. Now it's got some stiff competition being meshed inbetween Potter and C&A, but I'm really hoping this will be Marvel's biggest grossing hit to date. I know it may face some problem internationally, but there's no reason this can't be a huge hit in the States. It's Captain FREAKING America!!!!

[Spideyfan93]

I think this tagline in commercials:

Better than Iron Man

would do it best. And it is going to be awesomely nerve racking and fun watching Harry Potter, Cap, Cowboys&Aliens, duking it out.

[Spider-Fan]

I think Potter will make it unable to outgross IM1 or IM2, but I think it might do better than predicted by the time its run is over.

[Suzanne78]

I think Potter will make it unable to outgross IM1 or IM2, but I think it might do better than predicted by the time its run is over.

I want this flick to gross a gazillion bucks... Actually I think I'd be happy with a $170-225mil gross by the end of Cap's run. Like people are saying, it's definitely a crowded summer, and if you're not part of a franchise that's a proven moneymaker, anything over $200mil seems like it's not guaranteed.

[EML420]

What is Marvel shooting for has for has OW?
Oh and what were they expecting Iron Man to do no one could have predicted its huge numbers?

[Spider-Fan]

If Cap netted $225mil domestically, that would be a great run for Cap. It doesn't need IM money to be big. $225 is a strong start for a new franchise, and would make it top grossing comic film of the year. Which no doubt would have Marvel looking toward a sequel sooner than later! Which is mostly why I want Cap to be huge.

I'm not sure it will top out quite at $225. I think your 175-225 range is pretty accurate. I'm just saying if that is the ceiling, it's quite good :cap:

[Marvel]

The bar has been lowered to the floor with GL boming, so I hope Cap freaking knocks it out of the park. Now it's got some stiff competition being meshed inbetween Potter and C&A, but I'm really hoping this will be Marvel's biggest grossing hit to date. I know it may face some problem internationally, but there's no reason this can't be a huge hit in the States. It's Captain FREAKING America!!!!

Green Lantern is fast becoming the butt of jokes like I predicted...

http://www.toplessrobot.com/2011/06/topless_robot_presents_the_best_scenes_from_the_gr .php (http://www.toplessrobot.com/2011/06/topless_robot_presents_the_best_scenes_from_the_gr .php)

Hope that doesn't hurt Cap.

Anyone worried that even though Paramount gets a percentage as distributor that they may phone in the marketing on Cap??? This is their LAST film with Marvel and starting with Avengers, Disney will distribute and market. So, if Cap does Iron Man business that does nothing but promote Avengers and future Disney films which will be Paramount's competition in the future. Will they take the "lose money today to make money tomorrow" approach?!?!?

[flickchick85]

Cap's got the lowest budget of all the Marvel movies, right? That means it really doesn't need to make as much as the others, either, and I certainly don't expect it to do Iron Man numbers. I'd be thrilled if it did Thor numbers, tbh.

[DavidRocky]

As of now, unless someone has better numbers, boxoffice.com has Cap tracking at $47mil. However, the marketing blitz has yet to kick in, so we'll see if the promotion can get the numbers up to at least Thor levels.

It seems that the site primarily tracks buzz in terms of trailer viewings, Twitter/Facebook posts...etc. I'd personally like to see at least $70-75mil the first weekend, but I'm thinking it'll be closer to $65-70.

What??.Cap opening lower than GL?.There is no way!!!.The buzz is much higher.Have you seen the comingsoon Poll?:Cap is the movie people want to see the most on July even beating HP in the poll!!.Im shocked by this!!.:wow::wow:.

[J.Howlett]

Well considering that this is the last Potter film, don't think that the expect Potter drop off the following weekend is going to happen.

If this were any other Potter film, Captain America would be fine opening the following weekend. But on the heels of the last Potter film, there might be a shootout for number 1 the weekend Captain America gets released.

From a PR standpoint, it would be bad if Captain America didn't open number 1.

But again, don't underestimate the fact that this is the last Potter film. All theories go out the window, as far as I'm concerned.

[the fixer]

Actually, that is the only good thing about Cap being released only the 17th of August out here in Belgium...
He won't have any competition with Harry Potter. :)

[J.Howlett]

Potter's going to be a beast. There's no way around this final Potter film. It's going to be huge and I just don't know how much it's going to hurt America.

I think it's going to be a photo finish to first on the weekend of the 22nd.

[Docker2.0]

I'm going to say it opens up to between $65-72M domestically. I think it's total domestic run will be around $185M and WW around $330M. I think Thor coming out this year will help it's run as well. This summer is really loaded but tying the Marvel movies together will definetly help it's box office run. Hate to say this but if WB had GL with TDK.......................well.................... ...:O

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think Potter is being overpredicted again. It's going to be huge but people are acting like it's going to put up TDK domestic numbers just because it's the last one. It will do over 1bil worldwide and over 300mil domestically but I'm not willing to go higher than 360mil at this point. If I'm wrong so be it but I believe that Potter will have short legs once again and that their is room for Captain America, provided it it doesn't get GL level bad reviews and buzz.

It's marketing has been the best of all of the comicbook movies IMHO. If it's actually good I think that it will do 200 to 250mil total. I'll wait till it gets a little closer before I give it final prediction.

[Liam_H]

Well Potter will effect Cap's BO; we just don't know to what extent yet. Maybe a little or a decent amount; it'll be more clear when we get closer to release.

It a wonder why this movie isn't released over July 4th weekend. I'm not saying to go up against Transformers because that would be a huge gamble but Paramount is distributing both movies. At this point the Transformers franchise is a lock for $100+ million opening no matter what so opening it on July 22nd wouldn't have lost that much business. But Captain America would've received a pretty good boost if it was in Transformers slot right now.

On a side note, Transformers coming right after Potter would've been very interesting to see Box Office wise.

[Marvin]

Rest assured GL's performance is going to help Cap.

Cap really should have been the may release though, it would have assuredly done IM numbers or close to them. Especially with all the flops that followed. It's current slot alone will prevent that from happening.

[marcvader]

In turn, Thor probably wouldn't have done as well.

[Whiskey Tango]

LOL I just noticed TheMayor voted for the 1 Billion+ option. How are they suppose to make that much with no marketing and no trailers?!?

[ElMariachi]

I think this movie has the possbility of doing big numbers, especially in the U.S. Here is why.

1)If this trailer is released before Transformers 3, that's a ton of eyes seeing the quality of Cap weeks before it's release. The buzz for this could be incredible.

2)Hayley Atwell's prominence in the trailer. There has never been a superhero movie with a female lead as strong and as likeable in my opinion. She isn't a damsel in distress and I think that will play with women. Just look at the under the radar, box office smash Bridesmaids. A female comedy that is owning Green Lantern at the BO, beating XFC domestically, and not that far away from Thor at the domestic BO. When you can draw in the women, your movie is going to do well.

3)This isn't 2007. The world has moved on from the Iraq War and their obssession with Bush. I understand that they will always hate us to some degree (as we are the sole superpower) but I think things have lightened up. These non-Americans have been seeing American movies with American characters for the entire decade. The quasi American military recruitment film, Transformers, didn't stop the sequel from blowing up overseas. If Captain America is good, people will go.

4)Harry Potter is top heavy on it's first weekend and these movies don't really make THAT much money in the U.S. considering their hype. It will clean up overseas but lets not forget that only one Harry Potter movie (the first one) made as much money as Iron Man 2 in the U.S. Iron Man 2 beat Deathly Hollows at the domestic box office last year by like $17 million dollars.

5)Americans are very patriotic people and are tired of seeing Hollywood liberalism eroding the image of this country. There is a reason why anti-American movies like Green Zone bomb in this country. Captain America might not be the most well known American hero but he is surely one of the most iconic. If this movie gets great reviews like Iron Man or TDK off the bat, it could blow up.

6)Steve Rodgers looks like a compelling, interesting character. He is different from the douchey, cocky Tony Stark and ripoff Tony Stark now appearing in theaters. Different from the moody Bruce Wayne and charming hunk Thor.

7)The movie looks awesome. The action, design, humour, and acting looks excellent.

8)World War 2 is popular. It's a popular subject and seeing a superhero movie in this era is unique. It is the last war that was seen as a 'good war' where we all (aside from the losers) have pride in. Russians, Americans, Brits, Canadians, Australians, French, etc. World War II, after 60 + years, is still a very important event. WWII movies also do ok at the box office.

9)After Captain America comes out, the competition is light. Cowboys and Aliens could do well but after that there isn't much. I don't think Conan, Smurfs, Apes, Final Destination 5, Fright Night, and Spy Kids are going to put up much competition. Planet of the Apes is the only one that I see making decent money. Then again, Alvin in the Chipmunks made bank, so that awful Smurfs flick might do ok.

10)The movie is directly tied into Thor, Iron Man, and The Avengers. Iron Man 1/2 were successful and Thor is the biggest superhero movie of the year. Avengers is probally one of the most anticipated movies in a long time along with TDKR. People have bought into the Marvel Universe and they will want to see Captain America.

[Marvin]

I think this movie has the possbility of doing big numbers, especially in the U.S. Here is why.

2)Hayley Atwell's prominence in the trailer. There has never been a superhero movie with a female lead as strong and as likeable in my opinion. She isn't a damsel in distress and I think that will play with women. Just look at the under the radar, box office smash Bridesmaids. A female comedy that is owning Green Lantern at the BO, beating XFC domestically, and not that far away from Thor at the domestic BO. When you can draw in the women, your movie is going to do well.

Maybe she'll be the new generations Lois Lane...maybe not, maybe Paltrow already is...
point being, aren't we jumping the gun a little, it's a well cut trailer featuring a glorified bond girl.

Bridesmaids is a strong underrated comedy that no one has any reason to hate(ie hangover). It's beating out GL and Xmen cause it's been out longer than those two films have alot of issues of their own no one can deny. Maybe if it was beating out strongly received films...


3)This isn't 2007. The world has moved on from the Iraq War and their obssession with Bush. I understand that they will always hate us to some degree (as we are the sole superpower) but I think things have lightened up. These non-Americans have been seeing American movies with American characters for the entire decade. The quasi American military recruitment film, Transformers, didn't stop the sequel from blowing up overseas. If Captain America is good, people will go.

The one people couldn't shut up about...it's a double edged sword.

4)Harry Potter is top heavy on it's first weekend and these movies don't really make THAT much money in the U.S. considering their hype. It will clean up overseas but lets not forget that only one Harry Potter movie (the first one) made as much money as Iron Man 2 in the U.S. Iron Man 2 beat Deathly Hollows at the domestic box office last year by like $17 million dollars.

On average they don't do insanely well domestically, but they also don't do poorly. People are acting like Potter is going to pull a green lantern in its second week.
5)Americans are very patriotic people and are tired of seeing Hollywood liberalism eroding the image of this country. There is a reason why anti-American movies like Green Zone bomb in this country. Captain America might not be the most well known American hero but he is surely one of the most iconic. If this movie gets great reviews like Iron Man or TDK off the bat, it could blow up
Gotta admit, the film really is going for it.
6)Steve Rodgers looks like a compelling, interesting character. He is different from the douchey, cocky Tony Stark and ripoff Tony Stark now appearing in theaters. Different from the moody Bruce Wayne and charming hunk Thor.
Unlike almost every hero put to screen so far with the exception of many lol, he is one of few that doesn't start out as a irresponsible douche

7)The movie looks awesome. The action, design, humour, and acting looks excellent.

Depends what you're into. The average person may find it looks like any other marvel film but with a period vibe. How much better was this trailer than say IM2

8)World War 2 is popular. It's a popular subject and seeing a superhero movie in this era is unique. It is the last war that was seen as a 'good war' where we all (aside from the losers) have pride in. Russians, Americans, Brits, Canadians, Australians, French, etc. World War II, after 60 + years, is still a very important event. WWII movies also do ok at the box office.
The last period comic film isn't doing too well. And the last time the audience seen ww2 and superhero's in the marketing was Wolverine.
9)After Captain America comes out, the competition is light. Cowboys and Aliens could do well but after that there isn't much. I don't think Conan, Smurfs, Apes, Final Destination 5, Fright Night, and Spy Kids are going to put up much competition. Planet of the Apes is the only one that I see making decent money. Then again, Alvin in the Chipmunks made bank, so that awful Smurfs flick might do ok.
Makes you wonder they all studios don't just release closer to the end of the summer...or does it.
10)The movie is directly tied into Thor, Iron Man, and The Avengers. Iron Man 1/2 were successful and Thor is the biggest superhero movie of the year. Avengers is probally one of the most anticipated movies in a long time along with TDKR. People have bought into the Marvel Universe and they will want to see Captain America.

that's saying something about the times and audience interest if you ask me.

[ElMariachi]

Maybe she'll be the new generations Lois Lane...maybe not, maybe Paltrow already is...
point being, aren't we jumping the gun a little, it's a well cut trailer featuring a glorified bond girl.


I don't think so. What other female lead in a comic book movie can you think of that has been this interesting? I can't think of many at all. Also, she isn't a damsel in distress like pretty much every other female character. Non-damsel female characters in comic book movies suck or are complete camp---Poison Ivy, Catwoman (both times), Silk Spectre, Storm, Rouge, Elektra, etc. I suppose Hit Girl was cool and Sif wasn't too bad, although she didn't get much screen time.



Bridesmaids is a strong underrated comedy that no one has any reason to hate(ie hangover). It's beating out GL and Xmen cause it's been out longer than those two films have alot of issues of their own no one can deny. Maybe if it was beating out strongly received films...

It's beating those movies out because it's a well done female comedy that goes away from the cliches. Most female comedies are romantic drivel, this looks different. Sure, it's been out longer but it's made twice as much as GL domestically. I have doubts that GL can close that gap.




On average they don't do insanely well domestically, but they also don't do poorly. People are acting like Potter is going to pull a green lantern in its second week.


I dont' think anybody is saying it will bomb, but people are talking about this last Harry Potter as if it's TDK. Even the Mummy 3 and a few comedies made their money during TDK's beat down at the box office.



Depends what you're into. The average person may find it looks like any other marvel film but with a period vibe. How much better was this trailer than say IM2


Marvel's style has done well at the box office, so I don't see why this wouldn't. This trailer was much better than Iron Man 2 in my opinion. There is a sense of adventure with this movie that lacks in conflicted hero movies like Iron Man, Batman, and Spider-Man.


The last period comic film isn't doing too well. And the last time the audience seen ww2 and superhero's in the marketing was Wolverine.


It's doing ok, although not as great as it could be because the X-Men movies have put a bad taste in people's mouths. Wolverine did pretty well at the box office too. It wasn't sold as a WWII movie though.



that's saying something about the times and audience interest if you ask me.


Why? Thor was a good, fun movie with a charming lead. Why do movies like TDK get a pass in regards to being a popcorn movie? Nobody questioned our culture on that movies success, even though it about a guy in a rubber suit fighting a clown. I don't see the difference really between that and a Norse god fighting a metallic suit of armor.

[04nbod]

I expect it to do Thor numbers worldwide only the Domestic and International percentages will switch.

Rest assured GL's performance is going to help Cap.

Cap really should have been the may release though, it would have assuredly done IM numbers or close to them. Especially with all the flops that followed. It's current slot alone will prevent that from happening.

No. They pitched it almost perfectly. Thor had to open the summer away from the big competition because its the first major foray into other media and the public conscience for the character. Also, considering its so tied to the Avengers Marvel has to make sure its seen.

Cap ideally would have opened around July 4th, but I think they will use that for a massive marketing boost.

[Chewy]

I expect it to do Thor numbers worldwide only the Domestic and International percentages will switch.Ditto.

[Marvin]

I don't think so. What other female lead in a comic book movie can you think of that has been this interesting? I can't think of many at all. Also, she isn't a damsel in distress like pretty much every other female character. Non-damsel female characters in comic book movies suck or are complete camp---Poison Ivy, Catwoman (both times), Silk Spectre, Storm, Rouge, Elektra, etc. I suppose Hit Girl was cool and Sif wasn't too bad, although she didn't get much screen time.

Nah, the modern superhero love interest is very much empowered, they may not be pulling out machine guns but pepper pots and batmans lawer chick and the X women and even elektra stand up for themselves in very much the say way this new love interest does. Lois lane started this trend. Not that they don't need rescuing every now and again.

Personally I've seen this paradigm of a woman that leads the armed tech team, makes a super/gadget man out of a wimp and them goes off on adventures with him, I just can't put my finger on where exactly. But hey does feel different than the usual stuff.

It's beating those movies out because it's a well done female comedy that goes away from the cliches. Most female comedies are romantic drivel, this looks different. Sure, it's been out longer but it's made twice as much as GL domestically. I have doubts that GL can close that gap.


It's a pretty good movie(oscars?), GL isn't, I just think it's a weak point to compare the two.

I dont' think anybody is saying it will bomb, but people are talking about this last Harry Potter as if it's TDK. Even the Mummy 3 and a few comedies made their money during TDK's beat down at the box office.

As much as I agree that HP is overrated, and it won't do TDK numbers unless maybe one of it's cast members get in car accident or something. The Mummy three didn't open in TDK's second week out. That would have been silly...and I'm sure you would agree.

Marvel's style has done well at the box office, so I don't see why this wouldn't. This trailer was much better than Iron Man 2 in my opinion. There is a sense of adventure with this movie that lacks in conflicted hero movies like Iron Man, Batman, and Spider-Man.

I think it will do as well as a good Joe Johnson adventure movie could under the marvel brand. The thing is what I just outlined doesn't exactly scream box office smashing gold.

Why? Thor was a good, fun movie with a charming lead. Why do movies like TDK get a pass in regards to being a popcorn movie? Nobody questioned our culture on that movies success, even though it about a guy in a rubber suit fighting a clown. I don't see the difference really between that and a Norse god fighting a metallic suit of armor.

You missed my point, I said it was a sign of the times that the biggest comic book film of the year (so far) is doing just ok.
that doesn't bode so well for cap..or maybe it does who's to say.

[Marvin]

I expect it to do Thor numbers worldwide only the Domestic and International percentages will switch.



No. They pitched it almost perfectly. Thor had to open the summer away from the big competition because its the first major foray into other media and the public conscience for the character. Also, considering its so tied to the Avengers Marvel has to make sure its seen.

Cap ideally would have opened around July 4th, but I think they will use that for a massive marketing boost.

yes, good for thor, no doubt.
would have been even better for Cap.

the fact of the matter is cap doesn't even get to open on the national holiday. it's fickle planning by paramount who actually distribute the film they are opening on the "fourth of july"
(i love it because they aren't even doing that)

[sgaana]

yes, good for thor, no doubt.
would have been even better for Cap.

From Marvel's perspective, though, I imagine they always thought Thor was going to be the harder sell. (The already-much-discussed first foray into the more mystical, out-there parts of the comic-book universe.) With that in mind, two things:

* It was a good idea to open it at a time when it had the least amount of competition, and the least number of other movies to be compared to. Opening first, they could hope that audiences wouldn't be fatigued yet by movie-going and choosing which to go to more carefully.

* If Thor had not been received as warmly as it was, then getting it out of the way first, but following it up with the more-exciting Cap, would have been very smart. It just sort of seems like Marvel had a bit more faith in Cap's reception, and they wanted to end the summer with the film they thought more likely to be better-received. (I don't think they are at all worried about Cap bombing the way GL has.)

They're thinking ahead to creating buzz for The Avengers, obviously.

Scenario 1 -- Thor goes first, but does poorly, or its reception is lukewarm. Well, it's out of the way, and Marvel then would have had a couple of months to really hype Cap as a way to replace the "meh" feeling of Thor with excitement after people see Cap. Summer ends with people anticipating The Avengers with the excitement they felt after Cap.

Scenario 2 -- Cap goes first, it's great, everyone is excited coming out of it. Thor comes second... does poorly and has a "meh" reception. Summer ends with people's last impression of the Marvel Film Universe being "meh".

Fortunately, #1 didn't actually happen. But if you're the studio and you're at all worried about Thor's performance, you don't want to risk #2.

As it is, Marvel has the best of both options: Thor goes first, is quite warmly received, does quite good business, and gets people excited for The Avengers while also building excitement towards the release of Cap... which, if it is as great as it looks, will only multiply that excitement. Summer ends with The Avengers very highly anticipated.

[Marvin]

There was no reason for thor to be meh
even though it was.

It's interesting how how all this dancing about would be rectified if they just made a smash every time.

[Chewy]

Obviously launching Thor and Cap were equally important to Marvel.

If the Avengers is as big as we all expect all three (including IM in there) will be huge brands in their own rights very soon.

[Chewy]

There was no reason for thor to be meh
even though it was.

It's interesting how how all this dancing about would be rectified if they just made a smash every time.No one is dancing around.

Thor was a good movie and was very warmly received by audiences.

Sorry that you don't share their sentiments but you are in a small minority.

[Raiden]

yes, good for thor, no doubt.
would have been even better for Cap.

the fact of the matter is cap doesn't even get to open on the national holiday. it's fickle planning by paramount who actually distribute the film they are opening on the "fourth of july"
(i love it because they aren't even doing that)

I agree. Capt. America is the movie that was MADE for 4th of July; he's wearing the Star Spangled Banner for cryin' out loud. Unfortunately, Paramount distributes both movies and they have more faith on TF3, not to mention that both Bay and Spielberg are attached to that movie.

[Chewy]

I agree. Capt. America is the movie that was MADE for 4th of July; he's wearing the Star Spangled Banner for cryin' out loud. Unfortunately, Paramount distributes both movies and they have more faith on TF3, not to mention that both Bay and Spielberg are attached to that movie.Faith is not really the issue, it's that they get only a small portion of Cap's gross whereas TF is their baby

[sgaana]

There was no reason for thor to be meh
even though it was.

I was more trying to say that I could see Marvel worrying that Thor's reception would be meh, when looking ahead. I'm not saying that Marvel didn't think they were making a good movie. They certainly didn't intend NOT to make a good movie. But I could see them worrying about how the whole Asgard/gods thing would be received.

I don't think you can argue that it actually got a meh reception, though. It was actually received quite warmly by critics and audiences.

*shrug* On a personal level, I also didn't think it was meh. I enjoyed the hell out of it. I'm thinking that Cap looks really, really good, and Evans' performance (and others') is really appealing to me, but I sort of expect to come out of this summer with Thor having been the movie I enjoyed more. (Which is not meant to be a comment on which film is objectively "better", or even which film is likely to be more popular, but just on what works for me. And Thor really, really worked for me. I've seen it multiple times now, and it just makes me so darned happy, each time.)

I'm thrilled that Cap looks as great as it does and I'm really hoping that our raised expectations continue to be met -- I hope the film's great, I hope it gets great critical and audience response, and I hope it does great box office. I couldn't be happier with the way both Thor and Cap are creating excitement for The Avengers. It's just so much fun.

[Liam_H]

Faith is not really the issue, it's that they get only a small portion of Cap's gross whereas TF is their baby

Agree that faith isn't the issue but do we know that they receive a significant more percentage of the gross from TF compared to Cap?

[Chewy]

Agree that faith isn't the issue but do we know that they receive a significant more percentage of the gross from TF compared to Cap?Yes. As they were not involved in the film's production and merely distribute the film to theaters Paramount only receives a small-ish distribution fee for Cap, the rest of the money is Marvel's aka Disney's. They produced and distributed TF as a joint venture with Dreamworks so all of the profit is theirs'/split with Dreamworks.

[josh8]

This movie is going to have to do it's bulk in the States, so in that sense I'm a little disappointed with the trailers. The latest one had the tagline of heroes being made in America. Well then make me feel it!!

I'm not liking the way they cut the footage and the music choice making it look run-of-the-mill action. Cap should get the kind of trailer that makes you get a chill at least during some point while watching it. And the frenetic/action trailer is not good for a WWII movie. It is very DANGEROUS to make a WWII movie seem light and fun.

[Dwarf Slayer]

It is very DANGEROUS to make a WWII movie seem light and fun.

Indiana Jones says hello.

[josh8]

Indiana Jones says hello.

Meh. Never liked those kinds of films anyways and modern filmmaking is very different in terms of how much cheese you can allow.

[Whiskey Tango]

Meh. Never liked those kinds of films anyways

Lol the Indy films were huge hits. They laugh at you and your haterade. That's not dangerous at all, it's good competent filmmaking.

and modern filmmaking is very different in terms of how much cheese you can allow.

Are you one of those who defines the humor present in 95% of action-adventure movies as cheese? Because that's not what cheese is.

[Marvin]

No one is dancing around.

Thor was a good movie and was very warmly received by audiences.

Sorry that you don't share their sentiments but you are in a small minority.

I may be in the minority but it's not a small one.
Even in the thor thread there is talk of the scope issues and the town and what not. I liked the movie meh may be the wrong word but no one said such things about say TDK in terms of the meh factor.

If they made a spiderman movie with him spending 60 plus percent of the film in a small town in new mexico, I'd say that was meh even if he fought the insidious 6, based on principle alone....it would be more awesome if you take the same plot, spend some money and put him somewhere relevant...but I digress.

When I said dancing, I mean Paramount having to shift their releases around based on things properties they feel won't do well.

[Chewy]

The scope issue discussions in the Thor threads are mostly by a few users. And even if every single user on the Hype had an issue with it it would still be a very small minority of those who saw the movie.

The idea that the New Mexico setting was irrelevant seems silly. It was a barren desert; nothing to do, nowhere to go. It was the exact opposite of the setting Thor was used to.

If Spider-Man spent 60% of his movie in a desert it wouldn't be the same as it wouldn't connect to his story. Spider-Man feeling trapped and useless and empty in a foreign location is not the crux of his origin.

[Raiden]

Meh. Never liked those kinds of films anyways and modern filmmaking is very different in terms of how much cheese you can allow.

You don't like Indiana Jones movies? Even the crappy Crystal Skull made alot of money. And Joe Johnson clearly shot Capt. America to be an adventurous movie, like Indiana Jones and his own Rocketeer.