The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Spider-Fan]

Does TDK need to come up in EVERY discussion? Seriously, does Iron Man HAVE to be bigger than Batman? Why do we needlessly have this on going who's stick is bigger than the other's contest? Seriously, $133 mil is a GREAT opening for a character that before 2008 people probably couldn't have cared less about. Rejoice. Be happy. Stop comparing EVERYTHING to the friggin Bat! It's annoying as hell.

[dark_b]

i dont know a lot of BO. but i am suprised that it didnt make more like some expected.

[Crook]

Mac is more a comedian... not a movie star.
Neither was Heath. Are people forgetting dude was practically an indie actor after his debut with '10 Things I Hate About You'? He didn't have any big roles, unless you count Brokeback Mountain, and we all know that wasn't a film people exactly got out and went out to see.

You substitute Heath, including the passing, along with a much talked about performance, with any other young, semi-recognizable actor working in Hollywood today, I guarantee it would have been the same box office result.

It's the JOKER, folks. You won't find many fictional characters as enjoyable and popular as him. Heath's death merely supported the intrigue of this character coming back into pop culture, and the incredibly original performance that was televised everywhere only cemented the notion that you had to see this in theaters.

So was it Heath? Yes, in a way. It was Heath's acting in the role of an iconic villain that turned people's eye towards TDK. It was never, ever, Heath, the person or actor. He simply didn't have that type of clout.

[Spider-Fan]

i dont know a lot of BO. but i am suprised that it didnt make more like some expected.

I just don't see anyway at the meetings Marvel goes over the numbers for Iron Man (who few people previously cared about) and say this 133 mil opening (which by itself nearly outgrosses their last film's entire domestic gross) is a poor performance. That is good money for an up and coming studio, and Marvel/Disney will make tons off it.

[drax]

You're still not showing me any proof of what WB did in conjunction with the media's treatment of Ledger's death. It's nothing but hearsay.

WB can ask what they want for their own company, death of an actor or not.

WB are part of AOL Time Warner group, so it's lot easier for them to do that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Warner

Just an example, CNN are part of this group, so just with them, they can promote the movie how they want.

They have also Time Inc, with the famous magazine Time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Inc.

For the others media, studio need for to promote their movie, like the media need them for to have an exclusivity (trailer, interview, exclusive extract for the movie), Sony don't want to promote Jackson alive, now he is dead, every media promote his music, who ask them to do ? Sony, of course, the media can't promote something without copyright so without Sony, it's the same thing for WB and the Dark Knight, because the death can sell very well.

But I guess, we are agree to disagree.

[dark_b]

Does TDK need to come up in EVERY discussion? Seriously, does Iron Man HAVE to be bigger than Batman? Why do we needlessly have this on going who's stick is bigger than the other's contest? Seriously, $133 mil is a GREAT opening for a character that before 2008 people probably couldn't have cared less about. Rejoice. Be happy. Stop comparing EVERYTHING to the friggin Bat! It's annoying as hell.this is a BO thread.


Avatar,TDK will be mentioned in the boxoffice thread.

[Spider-Fan]

And it is totally unneccessary and annoying.

Seriously guys, TDK was 2 years ago and has NOTHING to do with Iron Man. Let the falling short of the record go, and be happy that Iron Man can even make 133 mil :im:

[Fenrir]

Probably not very accurate to compare a super hero movie that was going to make over 200 million no matter what to movies that would be lucky to make 30 million.

Oh so now it TDK being a superhero film is relevant? What happened to all the 'TDK made a billion dollars only because Heath Ledger died' crap you were spewing moments ago? :dry:

Let's face it, if it was mere morbid curiosity, the film would've lost steam after the first month at most. It would've tanked once the novelty wore off like New Moon did after its first weekend instead of staying in the number one position for 4 weeks straight and an 8 month run in theaters. TDK's strong legs, incredibly low weekend drop and repeat viewings were what carried the film to the billion dollar mark. No fascination with a dead celebrity lasts that long. And if you know that there exists a world outside the USA where people hardly keep up with celebrity gossip and an actor's death (assuming of course they know who he is to begin with) makes comparatively nowhere near as big a bearing on box office numbers, it pretty much flushes this dumb argument down the toilet.

[RoboAmish]

But every other article about its BO was as to whether or not it would beat out TDK's opening take, hence why it's been discussed. It has everything to do with TDK, IM2 was publicly going for its record

It would have been brought up even if IM2 had managed to break the record.

[FaT_tONle]

It's the JOKER, folks. You won't find many fictional characters as enjoyable and popular as him. Heath's death merely supported the intrigue of this character coming back into pop culture, and the incredibly original performance that was televised everywhere only cemented the notion that you had to see this in theaters.

Obviously, which is all you had to say. It's the performance, the passing, and the iconic role. Most people already agree with that. What we disagree with is how much you can exactly contribute all those factors to BO if you can even make such a quantization.

[Anita18]

And it is totally unneccessary and annoying.

Seriously guys, TDK was 2 years ago and has NOTHING to do with Iron Man. Let the falling short of the record go, and be happy that Iron Man can even make 133 mil :im:
And again, TDK is mentioned because tracking for IM2 showed that it was on course for a $150-160m opening where, which is right about where the record is. So the question was whether it would break the opening weekend record.

Which is held by...TDK. :oldrazz:

I think the current argument is whether a record-breaking opening was in the cards for IM2 because of the so-called Ledger tribute factor or whatnot. Maybe. :funny:

[akfj]

WB can ask what they want for their own company, death of an actor or not.

WB are part of AOL Time Warner group, so it's lot easier for them to do that.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Warner

Just an example, CNN are part of this group, so just with them, they can promote the movie how they want.

They have also Time Inc, with the famous magazine Time.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Inc.

For the others media, studio need for to promote their movie, like the media need them for to have an exclusivity (trailer, interview, exclusive extract for the movie), Sony don't want to promote Jackson alive, now he is dead, every media promote his music, who ask them to do ? Sony, of course, the media can't promote something without copyright so without Sony, it's the same thing for WB and the Dark Knight, because the death can sell very well.

You're still not showing me any explicit proof of WB's attempt to exploit the death of Ledger through the media. You're starting to sound like some kind of conspiracy theorist.

[Excelsior.]

People forget Batman Begins' massive DVD sales. It was bigger than Revenge of the Sith :wow:. That helped also.

[drax]

And it is totally unneccessary and annoying.

Seriously guys, TDK was 2 years ago and has NOTHING to do with Iron Man. Let the falling short of the record go, and be happy that Iron Man can even make 133 mil :im:

I have a serious question, I don't live in USA, and I would like to know the Iron Man popularity before the movie, not among the comicbook fans, but for the general audience.

Because it's a big surprise that these movies have some much success without the pop cultural background that the others heroes (Superman, Batman, Spider-man etc...) have, in France now everybody know Iron Man.

Thanks for advance for the answer.:cwink:

[Spider-Fan]

And again, TDK is mentioned because tracking for IM2 showed that it was on course for a $150-160m opening where, which is right about where the record is. So the question was whether it would break the opening weekend record.

Which is held by...TDK. :oldrazz:

I think the current argument is whether a record-breaking opening was in the cards for IM2 because of the so-called Ledger tribute factor or whatnot. Maybe. :funny:

I don't see why we need to discuss the death of Heath Ledger maybe or maybe not helping TDK make money in an IM2 thread. Yes, the tracking possibility that it COULD beat TDK was out there, but instead of being happy it made 133mil, everyone is making excuses and bringing up topics we DON'T need to discuss. It is annoying every thread on this site becomes did Heath Ledger boost TDK's total BO or how great is TDK. Seriously, it has been 2 years, and it has gotten old.

Discussing TDK's total being in IM's reach prior to release, I think that is fine. This current discussion on Ledger, annoying.

[Iron_Stark]

2.5 years ago, Iron Man was a C-lister, B at best. Nobody knew him.

I remember I was reading the Iron Man movie novel and a co-worker asked me if I was reading a book about the Olympics.

133.6 and getting placed at #5 is damn impressive.

[Crook]

I don't see why we need to discuss the death of Heath Ledger maybe or maybe not helping TDK make money in an IM2 thread. Yes, the tracking possibility that it COULD beat TDK was out there, but instead of being happy it made 133mil, everyone is making excuses and bringing up topics we DON'T need to discuss. It is annoying every thread on this site becomes did Heath Ledger boost TDK's total BO or how great is TDK. Seriously, it has been 2 years, and it has gotten old.

Discussing TDK's total being in IM's reach prior to release, I think that is fine. This current discussion on Ledger, annoying.
First time on a superhero board? :p

You'll notice that every time something fails to meet fan expectation, there will be dozens and dozens of theories on WHY so-and-so happened. This is a box office thread that will undoubtedly feature TDK comparisons. IM2 failed to come close to it. So WHY didn't it do it? Well, cue in the infamous "Ledger factor".

[drax]

You're still not showing me any explicit proof of WB's attempt to exploit the death of Ledger through the media. You're starting to sound like some kind of conspiracy theorist.

There are nothing to do with conspiracy (it's your words not mine), it's the common sense of a commercial aspect for the death of a star (again see the example of MJ), everybody know that there are lot of money during this moment, if it's not WB, who give the copyright to the media for the promotion ?:whatever:

The fact that Warner group own lot of media (CNN, the TIME) is not a proof too I suppose.

For example, I have learnt about his death during the promotion of TDK, not before.

I don't work for them (Sony or WB), so I can't have an "explicit" proof (it's the behind the scene stuff), but like for MJ, I'm curious how you interpret that he is now in every media, with a huge promotion like that, without new album.:whatever:

But I suppose we can agree to disagree.

[FaT_tONle]

I have a serious question, I don't live in USA, and I would like to know the Iron Man popularity before the movie, not among the comicbook fans, but for the general audience.

Because it's a big surprise that these movies have some much success without the pop cultural background that the others heroes (Superman, Batman, Spider-man etc...) have, in France now everybody know Iron Man.

Thanks for advance for the answer.:cwink:

The GA rarely read the actual comics so not many knew him from that. He had a cartoon series in the 90's, but it wasn't that great and clearly behind the cartoons of the other characters you listed. There was never a TV series to my knowledge. So he was basically behind X-Men, Spidey, and Hulk. But he was always a notch below those characters, so it's not like people had no idea who he was.

[Spider-Fan]

First time on a superhero board? :p

You'll notice that every time something fails to meet fan expectation, there will be dozens and dozens of theories on WHY so-and-so happened. This is a box office thread that will undoubtedly feature TDK comparisons. IM2 failed to come close to it. So WHY didn't it do it? Well, cue in the infamous "Ledger factor".

Because that was a Batman movie, and Batman is top dog in the superhero world right now. I think that is why. Batman more popular than Iron Man.

I'm sick and tired of the Ledger debate and TDK being praised in every thead on this site (though the Ledger debate applies to this thread, I am just saying in general)...I really am :whatever:

[akfj]

There are nothing to do with conspiracy (it's your words not mine), it's the common sense of a commercial aspect of the dead of a star (again see the example of MJ), everybody know that there are lot of money during this moment, if it's not WB, who give the copyright to the media for the promotion ?:whatever:

For example, I learn his death during the promotion of TDK, not before.

I don't work for them (Sony or WB), so I can't have an "explicit" proof (it's the behind the scene stuff), but like for MJ, I'm curious how you interpret that he is now in every media, with a huge promotion like that.:whatever:

But I suppose we can agree to disagree.

Again, WB did not have to tell the media to discuss the death of a young actor who had previously been nominated for an Oscar. WB can just step out of the way and let the media go to town on that one.

TDK's promotion started in 2007 with the viral stuff and the initial teaser trailers. So you, along with everyone else, learned of his death during the ongoing promotion of the movie.

Michael Jackson and Sony are completely unrelated to WB and Heath Ledger. You can't use one example and say that that is the way it works every time. The only Ledger-related promotion that WB did was with the character of The Joker, not the actor who portrayed him.

I have a serious question, I don't live in USA, and I would like to know the Iron Man popularity before the movie, not among the comicbook fans, but for the general audience.

Because it's a big surprise that these movies have some much success without the pop cultural background that the others heroes (Superman, Batman, Spider-man etc...) have, in France now everybody know Iron Man.

Thanks for advance for the answer.:cwink:

No one in the general audience knew who he was. There may have been a little talk about ten years ago when Tom Cruise was slated to play Iron Man, but that was because of Cruise, not the character itself.

I remember listening to a radio show just prior to the first film's release and the hosts had no idea who the character was. They associated the name "Iron Man" with the Black Sabbath song. I think any initial hype for the first movie was generated by Robert Downey, Jr., the perception that it looked like a fun movie, and that it was a Marvel movie (the same guys that brought you Spider-Man and X-Men, etc.). But before that if you were to ask anyone on the street what Iron Man is you would have probably got more responses that it's a Black Sabbath song rather than a comic book character.

[Crook]

Because that was a Batman movie, and Batman is top dog in the superhero world right now. I think that is why. Batman more popular than Iron Man.
I think it has much more to do with the hype of their respective films. IM2 was anticipated, but nowhere near as much as TDK. We'll see in the oncoming weeks whether audiences thought it was a better film.

As for the more popular superhero, well, arguably Spidey had that crown, and TDK still beat out SM3.

[drax]

Again, WB did not have to tell the media to discuss the death of a young actor who had previously been nominated for an Oscar. WB can just step out of the way and let the media go to town on that one.

It's your point of view, but it's not the professional opinion like Peter Biskind have said about the promotion and the relation between media and studio.

WB don't have talked about his death, but lot of media have said that it was the last huge role of the actor...during the promo of TDK.

TDK's promotion started in 2007 with the viral stuff and the initial teaser trailers. So you, along with everyone else, learned of his death during the ongoing promotion of the movie.The promotion have begun in 2007, but not with the same intensity that some month before the direct promotion of the movie in 2008.

Michael Jackson and Sony are completely unrelated to WB and Heath Ledger. You can't use one example and say that that is the way it works every time. The only Ledger-related promotion that WB did was with the character of The Joker, not the actor who portrayed him.There are not just MJ, he was just the most recent example, and specially the most curious because he has been boycotted, but there are also Brandon Lee with the Crow (lot of people have done a parallel with Ledger), Bruce Lee, Elvis etc...

Sony don't have talked directly in their promotion to the death of MJ too, it would be too weird, they take some other way to do their works.

[akfj]

WB don't have talked about his death, but lot of media have said that it was the last huge role of the actor...during the promo of TDK.

Well, it was an objective fact that it would be his last big role. It was also an important fact for the media to mention whenever the film came up in discussion. Normally when an upcoming film comes up in discussion some of the important points that come up are which actors are in it and what went on during the production of the movie. So, his death couldn't be avoided when the media discussed the highly-anticipated film.

[YJ1]

Anyone think that Nashville being under water and New York being jittery (they evacuate Time Square when anyone farts loud these days) has any effect on domestic box office? Just spitballing but that's two big markets effected by things not controllable.

That by no means is looking for any "excuses" because $133 million doesn't need an excuse for anything. That's an amazing number. I just wonder if it would've been slightly bigger?

[spider-neil]

I think it has much more to do with the hype of their respective films. IM2 was anticipated, but nowhere near as much as TDK. We'll see in the oncoming weeks whether audiences thought it was a better film.

As for the more popular superhero, well, arguably Spidey had that crown, and TDK still beat out SM3.

spidey made more money than TDK overseas :oldrazz:

[Crook]

spidey made more money than TDK overseas :oldrazz:
I'm sure it did better in certain states too, but I tend to go for the bigger picture rather than placing priority over an area. :p

[MoPlaYa]

I think IronMan 2 will make 250 million in the U.S and 300 million W.W, so 550 million total

[spider-neil]

Given that no one knows how the film would have done had Heath Ledger lived, no, it is not a fact. What gave Dark Knight legs and made it the biggest superhero movie of all time were repeat customers and word of mouth. That has nothing to do with Heath Ledger dying. If the movie were not as good as it was the film would have been front loaded, and would have stalled after it's first weekend. It didn't.

its more than WOM. the WOM for TF2 was disgraceful but it still did huge numbers

[Spider-Fan]

I think IronMan 2 will make 250 million in the U.S and 300 million W.W, so 550 million total

The first film grossed over 300 mil after only grossing 100 mil opening weekend. For it to crap out domestically at 250 mil, especially opening at 133, the drops would have to be rather large. I don't see that happening. It will outgross first IM, I think.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Iron Man 2 Reaches $327.6 Million Worldwide



http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/100984-iron-man-2-reaches-3276-million-worldwide

[terry78]

Not shabby. It should maintain itself for another week or so due to Robin Hood not exactly being all that fun looking.

[Golgo-13]

What was IM 1's weekend B.O?

[Spider-Fan]

About 100mil. The estimate I found from 2008 said 100.8mil.

[FaT_tONle]

It's a 33% increase from IM from last weekend. If it tracks as well as IM it will end up with 65 millish next week. Of course that is unlikely, so if that number drops to 55ish, then it could have as much as 220 by next Monday but probably falling just short of 400 depending on the tracking. It depends on the legs.

[Iceman]

I hope it makes in the region of $400m domestic. The more it makes the more chance of a decent Avengers budget :cool:

[danoyse]

Anyone think that Nashville being under water and New York being jittery (they evacuate Time Square when anyone farts loud these days) has any effect on domestic box office? Just spitballing but that's two big markets effected by things not controllable.

I'll give you Nashville, since that's underwater, but I work in New York and I can tell you that didn't stop anyone from going to the movies, or anything else for that matter. They didn't even cancel the Broadway shows on the street the car bomb was found - they just started them late and made the audience use another exit when they left.

I was there last week going to dinner and a Broadway show with a friend, and the place was just as crowded as it's always been.

There's only one movie theater in the vicinity of Times Square that is playing Iron Man 2, and the shows were sold out there over the weekend. That stuff didn't affect it at all.

[kedrell]

It's at nearly 200M OS already. The 1st film only made $266M OS. I think this'll do about a hundred million more or so OS than the 1st and $50+ million more domestic for a WW total of about $700-750M. The first made $585M WW. A healthy increase and gets it into Spider-Man territory BO-wise.

[kedrell]

Do you guys think they would have been better off keeping the original release date(4/30/10)? I've heard that school finals are going on right now which could have had an effect on the OW gross(especially the opening day). Also there's the piracy issue due to it being available elsewhere a full week/week and a half before in North America. And then there's the fact that Sunday was Mother's Day(not sure whether that helped or hurt the gross). Also, why is Marvel so damned set on May releases? Are they so nostalgic for SM1's historic outing that they blind themselves to the fact that summer weekdays are more advantageous?

[jmc]

^I'd actually like to know that for blockbuster films in general. Just out of curiosity are there school holidays over in the States this time of year?

[Anita18]

Do you guys think they would have been better off keeping the original release date(4/30/10)? I've heard that school finals are going on right now which could have had an effect on the OW gross(especially the opening day). Also there's the piracy issue due to it being available elsewhere a full week/week and a half before in North America. And then there's the fact that Sunday was Mother's Day(not sure whether that helped or hurt the gross). Also, why is Marvel so damned set on May releases? Are they so nostalgic for SM1's historic outing that they blind themselves to the fact that summer weekdays are more advantageous?
Not sure if EVERY school's finals week is this week. I have friends in law school and med school who are currently very frazzled, but I suspect high school and/or undergraduate colleges may be different....

Still, if two graduate schools on completely different sides of the country have the same finals week, it's probably pretty standard.

I think it would have dampened the midnight gross, but it shouldn't have affected the weekend that much, especially if students needed to unwind after a grueling week of finals. Maybe they all had to go home to their moms instead, who knows. :funny:

Holiday weekends like Mother's Day always experience some kind of boost. It's a good excuse to get out and see a movie with family.

^I'd actually like to know that for blockbuster films in general. Just out of curiosity are there school holidays over in the States this time of year?
No. Most schools get out in the middle of June. Late May if you're really lucky. You can see the change in the daily grosses, definitely. Weekday grosses are always a lot higher in the summer compared to the school year, but that also translates into bigger weekend-to-weekend drops because a lot of demand will have been burnt off in the weekdays.

[kedrell]

I thought Mother's Day tended to only be a help to female-oriented films rather than fanboy films like IM2.

[Anita18]

I thought Mother's Day tended to only be a help to female-oriented films rather than fanboy films like IM2.
Well, IM2 has RDJ in it. :cwink:

And Babies crashed and burned, so I dunno if that rule still applies here. :funny:

[kedrell]

Well, IM2 has RDJ in it. :cwink:

And Babies crashed and burned, so I dunno if that rule still applies here. :funny:


Well Babies was never going anywhere, no matter what. I was meaning more about female films that actually have some wide appeal like rom-coms. And RDJ not withstanding, IM2 is still a fanboy, blow-em-up movie.

[TheVileOne]

What does it matter? Iron Man 2 still made $133 million this weekend.

People are social animals that want a shared experience. Even though it was Mother's Day weekend, I went to Stadium bar on Saturday night and a ton of people were there watching the Sharks playoff game and UFC 113.

[kedrell]

I'm just trying to figure whether they could have/should have done better or not. Tracking before this weekend was around 20M higher than it ended up getting. Tracking for the 1st film was about 30M lower than it ended up getting. How these things happen interests some of us.

[TheVileOne]

kedrell:

They should've NOT released the movie overseas a week before the US release. Not just about piracy, but they should've built up to a big global release at around the same date. It's still ridiculous and pointless IMHO that they waited a week to release it here especially when all the big premieres ended up in the US anyway because of the volcanic cloud over Europe. Also $133 million is a good opening weekend number. It's already surpassed $300 million worldwide. $133 million is still above Iron Man adjusted.

[TheVileOne]

Also, next week they are going to crush the Robin Hood movie no one is going to see.

[kedrell]

I agree on all points, Vile. But I tend to think that rather than holding the OS release back a week that they should have kept the original domestic release date to achieve that same simultaneous global release. I think they at least probably would have beaten New Moon's OW then.

[TheVileOne]

Who gives a **** about New Moon, you do realize this movie will more than likely surpass New Moon domestic and foreign right? There's not going to be a 70% second weekend dropoff like New Moon.

I was by my local AMC this morning, and Sunday matinees of Iron Man 2 lines were around the block.

Only teenage girls and old ladies care about New Moon. Everybody loves Iron Man.

Also, you can't release a summer movie on April 30. For it to be officially summer it needs to open in May. It should've waited a week to open it globally so all the momentum is focused on that one release date. Opening it everywhere else first was what hurt it the most IMHO.

[hatebox]

Who gives a **** about New Moon, you do realize this movie will more than likely surpass New Moon domestic and foreign right? There's not going to be a 70% second weekend dropoff like New Moon.



I don't get it, why come to a box office thread just to say 'who cares' about this or that...:huh:

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

well it's not exactly a "box office" thread as it is an "Iron Man 2 Box Office" thread. There's a difference, and I don't give a **** about New Moon, so there :word:

[TheVileOne]

I spit on New Moon. This is the IRON MAN 2 box office thread.

[Sentinel X]

The hardcore Iron Man fans here have proven to be equals (in terms of annoyance) to the hardcore TDK fans. Seriously people are mentioning New Moon, The Dark Knight, etc because Iron Man was expected to perform very similarly for the weekend. This is a BOX OFFICE thread...comparisons will be made. And all the excuses people are pulling out of their asses "OH...well...it was finals WEEK so HA!" (Okay, Students were stressed about finals when Spider-man and Spider-man 3 and they had no problem taking OW record) or "Well TDK had Heath Ledger!!" (Really people? I mean really? Since when was Heath Ledger such a huge star while he was alive that he could bring in that much success because of his death. Also this explains why his true last film was a huge box office smash)

Bottom line is IM2 was overpredicted. Its not as big as some people think..but its still pretty damn big. 133 mil over a weekend is hardly anything to be ashamed of

[hatebox]

I've read 3 reviews for Robin Hood now that are highly positive. Keep wondering if it'll be more competetive than I gave it credit for..

[Evil Twin]

I don't know if there's much to really say. Based on the opening weekend numbers, IM2 is poised to make over $300 million domestic, although probably not $400 million. Marvel's not going to complain about that. It's not likely to take the Summer, that's probably Toy Story 3, but it will certainly end up near the top.

It does kind of suggest though that we're seeing the cap of what an Iron Man movie can do. (And perhaps a non-Spider-Man Marvel movie.) The fact that Iron Man's foes are, by and large, unknown to the general public and not that interesting, probably doesn't help. Fighting more robots and guys in power armor is probably something they'll want to move away from. It probably als suggests that The Avengers build up is going to build off Iron Man, not bring in people that weren't already seeing Iron Man in the first place.

[danoyse]

Once again cease and desist all debate and talking about TDK. This is the Iron Man box office thread. If you want to talk TDK box office go to the blasted TDK forums. Stop the freaking TDK talk.

This is about Iron man 2. Iron Man 2 was the movie released at the box office this weekend, not TDK.

I'll take that one step further: I'm deleting the TDK comments.

Take the TDK talk to the Batman forums, but turning this thread into a TDK discussion again will be considered trolling.

[hatebox]

The trouble is, TDK is, more often than not, brought up by people just to criticze it rather than use it to criticize Iron Man. I've yet to see any obvious Bat trolls come on here and start wars just for the sake of it. So it works both ways. But I welcome some moderation on this, if only for the Ledger talk.

[drax]

I don't know if there's much to really say. Based on the opening weekend numbers, IM2 is poised to make over $300 million domestic, although probably not $400 million. Marvel's not going to complain about that. It's not likely to take the Summer, that's probably Toy Story 3, but it will certainly end up near the top.

It does kind of suggest though that we're seeing the cap of what an Iron Man movie can do. (And perhaps a non-Spider-Man Marvel movie.) The fact that Iron Man's foes are, by and large, unknown to the general public and not that interesting, probably doesn't help. Fighting more robots and guys in power armor is probably something they'll want to move away from. It probably als suggests that The Avengers build up is going to build off Iron Man, not bring in people that weren't already seeing Iron Man in the first place.

I think in some way it can be see like true (except "not that interesting", but it's more a question of point of view), but it's for that I think, with Iron man 3 and the Mandarin, it will be a big surprise to the general audience, for the moment I think Favreau have done a good job to keep the surprise with this character, I really wish to see him like in the comics, just with the rings and with a minor armor, I think this surprise will have really good consequence in the BO.

I would be cool to have not always armor vilain, like Living laser, blizzard, to have some difference, but I understand this choice for Iron Man 2, with another vilain without an armor, the general audience can be lost if the next foe is too much different, unlike for comicbook fans, the concept of an armor is very news for the audience, to don't follow that can hurt the box-office.

Except that, I'm happy that Iron Man 2 make a good box-office.

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

God almighty... Is it ok to compare Iron Man 2 to Iron Man... or would that hurt peoples feelings?

Is it the posters fault that Iron Man 2 was publicly discussed as potentially besting The Dark Knight and it's record... as a result, its feasible to compare.

Please don't delete my posts for stating the obvious... when I was clearly not trolling. But whatever... crack that whip!

I didn't realise making $133 million (An amount which I praise) would make people so sensitive.

[Sentinel X]

I'll take that one step further: I'm deleting the TDK comments.

Take the TDK talk to the Batman forums, but turning this thread into a TDK discussion again will be considered trolling. Wow. Seriously? :whatever:....so because Iron Man didn't beat TDK's OW you cannot discuss it at all even though the two were highly expected to make comparable box office returns? I think people need to stop being so sensitive...its just box office and none of you are getting a penny of it. Just have fun with it. Geez :o

[Mr. Earle]

God almighty... Is it ok to compare Iron Man 2 to Iron Man... or would that hurt peoples feelings?

Is it the posters fault that Iron Man 2 was publicly discussed as potentially besting The Dark Knight and it's record... as a result, its feasible to compare.

Please don't delete my posts for stating the obvious... when I was clearly not trolling. But whatever... crack that whip!

I didn't realise making $133 million (An amount which I praise) would make people so sensitive.
http://img683.imageshack.us/img683/2883/youmadb.jpg

[ultimatefan]

It seemed for a while that IM2 could break TDK´s record. But it didn´t manage to generate quite the same buzz. It´s still a highly impressive number, and counting on the overseas take, it pretty much secures a sequel already.

[dark_b]

I'll take that one step further: I'm deleting the TDK comments.

Take the TDK talk to the Batman forums, but turning this thread into a TDK discussion again will be considered trolling.we should not talk about Ledger .

but we should be able to compare the drops with other movies.

[Tony Stark]

I don't know if there's much to really say. Based on the opening weekend numbers, IM2 is poised to make over $300 million domestic, although probably not $400 million. Marvel's not going to complain about that. It's not likely to take the Summer, that's probably Toy Story 3, but it will certainly end up near the top.

It does kind of suggest though that we're seeing the cap of what an Iron Man movie can do. (And perhaps a non-Spider-Man Marvel movie.) The fact that Iron Man's foes are, by and large, unknown to the general public and not that interesting, probably doesn't help. Fighting more robots and guys in power armor is probably something they'll want to move away from. It probably als suggests that The Avengers build up is going to build off Iron Man, not bring in people that weren't already seeing Iron Man in the first place.

It most definitely can make 400 million it all depends on week 2. It's not that far behind DMC which was well over 400 million. The only films in the top 5 opening that did not make over 400 million are New Moon and Spider-man 3. Both those films had over 50% drops in the 2nd week.

We'll see what happens next week, but if it can remain 65-75 million range, it can make it to 400 million. There's just not that much competition this summer.

[hatebox]

There isn't, but unlike DMC it's opening in early May. This summer may be about as lacklustre as any can get, but the constant battering of mid-level performing movies will have an effect. But if next week's drop can be under 55% (or even 50) that'll be encouraging.

[Abraham]

God almighty... Is it ok to compare Iron Man 2 to Iron Man... or would that hurt peoples feelings?

Is it the posters fault that Iron Man 2 was publicly discussed as potentially besting The Dark Knight and it's record... as a result, its feasible to compare.

Please don't delete my posts for stating the obvious... when I was clearly not trolling. But whatever... crack that whip!

I didn't realise making $133 million (An amount which I praise) would make people so sensitive.

Agreed, in my opinion it is all open to discussion - New Moon, TDK, IM. If we aren't gonna be allowed to talk about this films box office in relation to other films then what are we doing here.

[Immortalfire]

$133 million...good haul :up:

[Spider-Fan]

I'll take that one step further: I'm deleting the TDK comments.

Take the TDK talk to the Batman forums, but turning this thread into a TDK discussion again will be considered trolling.

Thank you! :up:

Now we can get back to Iron Man :im:

[Anita18]

I'm just trying to figure whether they could have/should have done better or not. Tracking before this weekend was around 20M higher than it ended up getting. Tracking for the 1st film was about 30M lower than it ended up getting. How these things happen interests some of us.
There's been some talk over at BOM whether IM2's OW being substantially lower than what many expected would boost the argument for all big movies being released in 3-D, and I've got to say, it's a good point. $133m with 3-D prices added in, it would have the record. It's something Paramount obviously wanted for IM2, considering the widest release record and getting more screens than TDK (I've heard it was about equal to SM3 in that regard).

So all I can say to that is :doh:

Also, you can't release a summer movie on April 30. For it to be officially summer it needs to open in May. It should've waited a week to open it globally so all the momentum is focused on that one release date. Opening it everywhere else first was what hurt it the most IMHO.
It's hard to say. The only reason I knew IM2 opened earlier in other places was because I go here. I REALLY don't think the average moviegoer knows this, nor would they care.

It does kind of suggest though that we're seeing the cap of what an Iron Man movie can do. (And perhaps a non-Spider-Man Marvel movie.) The fact that Iron Man's foes are, by and large, unknown to the general public and not that interesting, probably doesn't help. Fighting more robots and guys in power armor is probably something they'll want to move away from. It probably als suggests that The Avengers build up is going to build off Iron Man, not bring in people that weren't already seeing Iron Man in the first place.
It's curious too, since TF2's opening was huge. Does that mean TF1 had better WOM in the general public than IM1? :huh: Usually the boost in sequel box office openings mirror the kind of reception the previous film got. Hence SM3 being bigger than SM2, TDK being bigger than BB, POTC: DMC being bigger than COTBP. TF2 seemed to get a bigger boost than IM2, especially if you consider that it opened on a Wednesday. That's the part that makes me go :huh: and :doh: at the same time.

[Tony Stark]

Sorry but I totally disagree with that, you do NOT have the studio make the decision to release in 3D. That decision should ONLY be made by the director. If a film is made for 3D then release it in 3D, you don't do 3D post production , and Clash of the Titans is proof positive of that.

I don't care if it would have broken the record or not, you don't release everything in 3D. 3D is just a fad right now, because of Avatar, which was a visually stunning movie, but story wise, IMO was rather dumb.

[dark_b]

There's been some talk over at BOM whether IM2's OW being substantially lower than what many expected would boost the argument for all big movies being released in 3-D, and I've got to say, it's a good point. $133m with 3-D prices added in, it would have the record. It's something Paramount obviously wanted for IM2, considering the widest release record and getting more screens than TDK (I've heard it was about equal to SM3 in that regard).

So all I can say to that is :doh:

more 3D conversations?

noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
http://i40.tinypic.com/97o7wk.jpg

[Tony Stark]

There's another article out there, that said IM2 was the second largest bit-torrented movie, and there is speculation that may have hurt the record as well. But really who cares. The film had the 5th highest opening all time. It's a pretty damn good showing.

[Ironfan72]

I am so happy with the box office, its a great take, and guarantee's a sequal and as a Iron Man fan that is all I care about. The film rocked and I have now been able to talk to some of my co-workers who saw it over the weekend and they were gushing over how much they loved it and they are not comicbook fans, it seems to have crossed dimagraphics, which is great.
Favreau has already said Mandarin will be the villain in IM3 so I am thrilled by that :im:

[The Chris]

That's a great box office take I think for Iron Man. It was a freakin madhouse all weekend for this at work, especially in IMAX. We had to add a 4am on Saturday morning (thank god as that was the only way I was gonna see it). I hope it keeps doing well, as I think robin hood will bomb. By the way, everytime that I had to clean the theater, the audience went nuts for the after credits scene. I think Thor can do very well as well. I can't wait for this all to play out.

[danoyse]

Wow. Seriously? :whatever:....so because Iron Man didn't beat TDK's OW you cannot discuss it at all even though the two were highly expected to make comparable box office returns? I think people need to stop being so sensitive...its just box office and none of you are getting a penny of it. Just have fun with it. Geez :o

:facepalm:

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out.

[Evil Twin]

It's curious too, since TF2's opening was huge. Does that mean TF1 had better WOM in the general public than IM1? :huh: Usually the boost in sequel box office openings mirror the kind of reception the previous film got. Hence SM3 being bigger than SM2, TDK being bigger than BB, POTC: DMC being bigger than COTBP. TF2 seemed to get a bigger boost than IM2, especially if you consider that it opened on a Wednesday. That's the part that makes me go :huh: and :doh: at the same time.

I suppose it's at least possible that RDJ's appeal skews older than the teenagers that MUST get out on the first weekend and that's going to mitigate week to week dropoffs as the older crowd comes out. I've no read on Robin Hood, although I expect it will do better than Speed Racer two years ago in a similar spot, and it might appeal to the older crowd that remembers Gladiator fondly.

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.

[Sentinel X]

:facepalm:

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out. How is that facepalm worthy when you're the one who said you were deleting TDK comments instead of saying you'd delete comments talking about Heath's death. Those are two complete different things. :dry:

Anyways back to IM2 BO, I think its going to end up doing roughly 350 million domestically...which is still spectacular imo

[hatebox]

I imagine $400m domestic is the absolute ceiling for this film. Lukewarm reviews and an early May release date suggest a x3 multiplyer is the best it can get after a $100m+ opening, and I'm just not convinced it'll have great word of mouth. If it performs beyond that it'll be because other films severely underperformed.

[Anita18]

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.
That's definitely fair.

[Tony Stark]

I suppose it's at least possible that RDJ's appeal skews older than the teenagers that MUST get out on the first weekend and that's going to mitigate week to week dropoffs as the older crowd comes out. I've no read on Robin Hood, although I expect it will do better than Speed Racer two years ago in a similar spot, and it might appeal to the older crowd that remembers Gladiator fondly.

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.

Considering the first film did 318 on a 100 million dollar opening, it's not out of the ordiary to say this film could do 400. We won't know until week 2. I don't expect a 60% plus drop like Spider-man 2 and New Moon had. In fact the user reviews on RT are at 89%, so the whole "weak reception" is something the haters are just trying to pile on, and it's complete BS. Spider-man 3 had a 59% user review, and New Moon had 53%.

I can't predict the future, but I'd be shocked if there was a 60% drop next week.

The word of mouth on this film is excellent, and most of the people I've talked to love this movie far more than the critcs, and RT's user reviews seem to reflect that.

I agree that anything this film does should not be viewed as dissapointing. Star Trek last year only did something like 240 million, but I thought it was a huge success, and I thought it should have gotten an oscar bid over Avatar, as it was much better writing/acting.

[BenReilly]

Weekend actuals are in:

IRON MAN 2's official domestic opening came in at $128,122,480--about $5 million less than estimated.

http://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/13744502595

[hatebox]

Hmm, $5m is quite a big margin of error even if it was a big amount...

[Evil Twin]

Considering the first film did 318 on a 100 million dollar opening, it's not out of the ordiary to say this film could do 400. We won't know until week 2. I don't expect a 60% plus drop like Spider-man 2 and New Moon had. In fact the user reviews on RT are at 89%, so the whole "weak reception" is something the haters are just trying to pile on, and it's complete BS. Spider-man 3 had a 59% user review, and New Moon had 53%.

I can't predict the future, but I'd be shocked if there was a 60% drop next week.

The word of mouth on this film is excellent, and most of the people I've talked to love this movie far more than the critcs, and RT's user reviews seem to reflect that.

I agree that anything this film does should not be viewed as dissapointing. Star Trek last year only did something like 240 million, but I thought it was a huge success, and I thought it should have gotten an oscar bid over Avatar, as it was much better writing/acting.

Actually, the multiplier for the original Iron Man is out of the ordinary. Likewise for TDK and Avatar. 2.5 to 3X is the ordinary range for a summer blockbuster.

IM2 is doing fine at the box office. It's going to make more than $300 million domestic. But, there's not a thing out there that indicates it's doing anything special for a blockbuster. The fact that it fell below the estimates indicates that real world WOM is worse than internet WOM.

But, competition looks weak and we'll see what the 2nd weekend dropoff is. It's no failure in any sense of the word, even if it likely doesn't make $400 million domestic.

[Tony Stark]

Actually, the multiplier for the original Iron Man is out of the ordinary. Likewise for TDK and Avatar. 2.5 to 3X is the ordinary range for a summer blockbuster.

IM2 is doing fine at the box office. It's going to make more than $300 million domestic. But, there's not a thing out there that indicates it's doing anything special for a blockbuster. The fact that it fell below the estimates indicates that real world WOM is worse than internet WOM.

But, competition looks weak and we'll see what the 2nd weekend dropoff is. It's no failure in any sense of the word, even if it likely doesn't make $400 million domestic.

The multiplier for IM1 was 2.6, the multiplier for IM2 with the actuals in is 2.5, but I agree it's a success nomatter what the final tally.

[Anita18]

Hmm, $5m is quite a big margin of error even if it was a big amount...
It is, hence the additional :doh: on BOM and WoKJ. :funny:

It is what it is, though. It'll make money, that's a good thing.

[Tony Stark]

It is, hence the additional :doh: on BOM and WoKJ. :funny:

It is what it is, though. It'll make money, that's a good thing.

You mean the forums? Those are a joke to listen to, the biggest fanboy jerkoff boards I've ever read in my life. It's not the first time a studio has over estimated a film. The first IM was overestimated by I think 2.5 million.

It's still the 5th largest opening weekend. and Marvel's 2nd largest opening behind Spider-man. Only the fanboys on BOM would call it an "epic fail".

[Evil Twin]

The multiplier for IM1 was 2.6, the multiplier for IM2 with the actuals in is 2.5, but I agree it's a success nomatter what the final tally.

I'm talking total gross vs. opening weekend gross. IM had an opening weekend gross of $102 million and finished at $318 million. A multiplier of 3.1.

We'll see where IM2 ends up, but based on it's new number of $128 million, a range of $320 million to $384 million (2.5-3 times opening weekend) domestic seems likely. Call it $350 million as a likely number and that's a big success no matter how it's spun.

[hatebox]

It didn't occur to me before but the first film actually had quite a clear run before it got some real competition: Speed Racer and Prince Caspian bombed in the month after it was released.

Paramount/Marvel seem to have a knack for picking good slots.

[Anita18]

You mean the forums? Those are a joke to listen to, the biggest fanboy jerkoff boards I've ever read in my life. It's not the first time a studio has over estimated a film. The first IM was overestimated by I think 2.5 million.

It's still the 5th largest opening weekend. and Marvel's 2nd largest opening behind Spider-man. Only the fanboys on BOM would call it an "epic fail".
BOM is a little more "loonie" than WoKJ, which actually have posters who are pretty knowledgeable. I think some of them can get very fanboyish in their support of a particular film (and it's pretty obvious which ones if you start reading them) but it's all tongue-in-cheek, as far as I can tell.

And sure, lots of films get overestimated. But it's still a pretty rare occurrence that a film get overestimated from "official" estimates by $5 million. That's kind of a lot.

[Tony Stark]

I'm talking total gross vs. opening weekend gross. IM had an opening weekend gross of $102 million and finished at $318 million. A multiplier of 3.1.

We'll see where IM2 ends up, but based on it's new number of $128 million, a range of $320 million to $384 million (2.5-3 times opening weekend) domestic seems likely. Call it $350 million as a likely number and that's a big success no matter how it's spun.

OK gotcha, yeah we've yet to see about that, but overall I agree with your point.

[Raiden]

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M domestically, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.

[Doctor Jones]

I think it will do fine. Robin Hood could either flop or be a considerable hit. But IM faced the same problems in May two years ago and that did fine.

[Tony Stark]

Highest prediction I've seen for Robin Hood so far is 35 million or so. It's only set for 3500 theaters, so for a limited release, that number sounds about right.

Should IM2 hold form to it's predecessor, the number will be in the low 60's or so.

I'm not good at predicting these things, but we'll see how it turns out.

[JeetKuneDo]

Anyways back to IM2 BO, I think its going to end up doing roughly 350 million domestically...which is still spectacular imo

Apparently not.

Our standard for "successful" is beyond belief these days. I can't believe this movie just grossed 128 million in its opening weekend (top 10 adjusted all time) and some are attempting to claim this is some kind of "failure". Really? Holy smokes....it's almost impossible to be successful. What has Avatar done to us?

My real measure of success is that they managed to top the first one...which I really didn't expect to be honest.

[danoyse]

Highest prediction I've seen for Robin Hood so far is 35 million or so. It's only set for 3500 theaters, so for a limited release, that number sounds about right.

I wouldn't call 3500 theaters a "limited" release.

[Tony Stark]

Apparently not.

Our standard for "successful" is beyond belief these days. I can't believe this movie just grossed 128 million in its opening weekend (top 10 adjusted all time) and some are attempting to claim this is some kind of "failure". Really? Holy smokes....it's almost impossible to be successful. What has Avatar done to us?

My real measure of success is that they managed to top the first one...which I really didn't expect to be honest.

Only the numbskulls on the BOM boards are claiming that. The posters on those forums are about as bad as the idiots who watch the NFL draft and boo their teams selections.

The movie is a huge success, wheather or not it really was going to break TDK's record, who knows. There was 1000 point drop in the Dow at one point last week, durring all the crap that was happening in Greece, so the economy is very unstable now. That alone could have prompted people to stay home who might have gone. I have no clue.

[Tony Stark]

I wouldn't call 3500 theaters a "limited" release.

Sorry, I should refrase. I don't think it will be on enough screens to really compete this week, so 30 mil or so seems about right.

[DW4]

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M WW, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.

LOL. You couldn't be anymore wrong.

Through 3 days it made almost $130 domestically and it already at $322 million WW . Do you really think the movie is going to die down that much?

It will probably make another $8-10 million each weekday and make around 50-80 million during the weekend.

I'm pulling for Robin Hood as I enjoy Russell Crowe and Mark Strong but it might be a flop unfortunately domestically.

[dark_b]

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M WW, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.but the first movie made 580 WW.

you think IM2 will make less? :wow:

[hatebox]

I assume he meant domestic.

[rashad]

He probably meant 400M Domestic. If that's the case then yeah I can see it coming up well short.

[TheVileOne]

A lot of people said there was no way it would surpass $300 million in 2008 for Iron Man. It ended up edging out Indy 4's domestic take.

[drax]

:facepalm:

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out.

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

[hatebox]

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

I think Ledger's death is miniscule as a reason compared to him being great as the Joker and the Joker actually being in the film in the first place, but the point is the disucssion goes nowhere. We'll believe whatever we want to believe and just go round in circles.

[drax]

I think Ledger's death is miniscule as a reason compared to him being great as the Joker and the Joker actually being in the film in the first place, but the point is the disucssion goes nowhere. We'll believe whatever we want to believe and just go round in circles.

Okay, thank you for the answer, hatebox.:yay:

[Spider-Fan]

Drax, let it go. I am a poster tired of the Ledger debate, and I am rather glad the moderation is making that topic off limits here. It comes up in EVERY forum, and I am tired of it.

You have the bat forum. Go there for that subject. Leave people like me who want to discuss Iron Man 2's BO without the every post whining about Ledger's death in peace. Seriously, I'm tired of it.

[drax]

Okay Spider-Fan, I'm sorry for this question.

For Iron Man 2 box-office, I would like to know the reason that this movie have been released later in USA ?

Do you think, for box-office point of view, it was a good marketing move from Marvel ?

I can tell you that sadly lot of times, there are a big difference between the USA and the Europe for to have the same movies in cinema (sometimes 1 month or two), I think in some way it was a good move from Marvel for to fight against the piracy for this movie.

[FaT_tONle]

He probably meant 400M Domestic. If that's the case then yeah I can see it coming up well short.

Yeah man... it's a flop. Got to call it like it is. TF2 will end up out grossing it... :csad:

[Evil Twin]

IM2 was released earlier in Europe, Marvel has staked out the first weekend in May in the US for awhile now, due to several films moving up to avoid the World Cup next month. Obviously IM2 wasn't going to directly conflict with it, but other films moved up and potentially would have stepped on IM2's theater count and legs.

I doubt the early release in Europe had much effect other than some reviews came in sort of mixed.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah man... it's a flop. Got to call it like it is. TF2 will end up out grossing it... :csad:


It's not a flop by any means. It's definitely on its way to being a nice success for Paramount/Marvel. But it's hard not to laugh at my own prediction. I thought it would sell a similar number of tickets to SM3/TDK over opening weekend, which would be around $170-175m in 2010 dollars. And I figured after that huge opening it would cruise to around $450m domestic. I was way off. Way, way off. :hehe:

Hopefully it can at least reach $350m. That Sunday drop is not a good sign though. Mother's Day isn't a good excuse either because Star Trek had to deal with the same thing last year and had a 10% lower drop. Spidey 3 even managed a Sunday drop in the low-20's before its lousy word-of-mouth began kicking in. 32% is pretty steep for IM2. :csad:

[Raiden]

LOL. You couldn't be anymore wrong.

Through 3 days it made almost $130 domestically and it already at $322 million WW . Do you really think the movie is going to die down that much?

It will probably make another $8-10 million each weekday and make around 50-80 million during the weekend.

I'm pulling for Robin Hood as I enjoy Russell Crowe and Mark Strong but it might be a flop unfortunately domestically.

Sorry, I meant to say domestic, not WW. I've edited my post to mark the correction.

[Tony Stark]

Okay Spider-Fan, I'm sorry for this question.

For Iron Man 2 box-office, I would like to know the reason that this movie have been released later in USA ?

Do you think, for box-office point of view, it was a good marketing move from Marvel ?

I can tell you that sadly lot of times, there are a big difference between the USA and the Europe for to have the same movies in cinema (sometimes 1 month or two), I think in some way it was a good move from Marvel for to fight against the piracy for this movie.


What happened was originally the film was supposed to release WW on Apr 30th. Then the Chronicles of Narnia was pushed back to November, so Paramount decided to push up the North American release to Narnia's slot.

[Tony Stark]

It's not a flop by any means. It's definitely on its way to being a nice success for Paramount/Marvel. But it's hard not to laugh at my own prediction. I thought it would sell a similar number of tickets to SM3/TDK over opening weekend, which would be around $170-175m in 2010 dollars. And I figured after that huge opening it would cruise to around $450m domestic. I was way off. Way, way off. :hehe:

Hopefully it can at least reach $350m. That Sunday drop is not a good sign though. Mother's Day isn't a good excuse either because Star Trek had to deal with the same thing last year and had a 10% lower drop. Spidey 3 even managed a Sunday drop in the low-20's before its lousy word-of-mouth began kicking in. 32% is pretty steep for IM2. :csad:

I don't buy the Sunday Drop. IM1 had a 30% drop on Sunday. Spider-man 1 had a 27% Sunday drop on it's opening wekend. X2 had a 30% drop on it's first Sunday.

I'll admit I'm no BO expert, but I'm pretty good at math, and statistically there's no evidence that the Sunday drop has any effect on the longevity of the movie. Spider-man 3 only had a 22% Sunday drop and it tanked the next week.

As far as people's preditions, well there was a 1000 point drop in the Stock market on Wednesday, who knows how that effected peoples decisions to go to the movie.

[hatebox]

There are a million variables that determine peoples' decision to go to the movies, but time and again we've seen that recession has no effect on cinema attendence. In fact during the Great Depression it went up, people craved escapism.

[DW4]

Sorry, I meant to say domestic, not WW. I've edited my post to mark the correction.

Ah, simple mistake no biggie.

I might agree with you then. It is definitely too early to tell but this is the Summer Season so I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't.

I don't see Robin Hood beating it, I don't see Shrek beating it(people are getting sick of it) but I feel like PoP might be a surprise hit.

It really all depends how much it makes this weekend. As of right now it already made a lot of money. Those who are calling it a flop are fools that need to understand the box office.

[Tony Stark]

Let me state it another way, do I think that 20 million dollars worth of tickets just walked away this weekend? No I don't. In fact I looked around and I've seen some sites predicting 130 for this movie, including movie web:

http://www.movieweb.com/news/NEK4yRMR79TGOO

The whole "tracking at 150 million" seems to come from alot of fanboys on these BO forums.

It's sort of like people who think John Kerry won the 2004 election based on exit polling. It's the actual votes that count, not the exit polling.

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.

[redfirebird2008]

It's sort of like people who think John Kerry won the 2004 election based on exit polling. It's the actual votes that count, not the exit polling.

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.


It's not the fault of fanboys that the tracking services overestimated it by $20-30m. That's the fault of the tracking service. Now it is definitely our fault for not being more skeptical about those tracking numbers. My prediction for the movie wasn't just based on tracking, it was based on the situations with Pirates and Transformers. Iron Man had similar success to them. I will admit that the DVD sales were probably a good indicator that it would not increase as much as those sequels. It had good DVD sales, but Pirates and Transformers had excellent DVD sales. I knew it, but I kind of ignored it and let the fanboy take over I guess. :hehe:

[Tony Stark]

No, I understand, and my own prediction was pretty high based on that as well. In fact when I heard that early sales on movietickets.com were outgunning the original by 5 to 1, I was wondering if this could get close to 200. Seems pretty silly now, but my inner fanboy broke in as well.

What I am seeing now though is that several tracking reports, and the one I listed at movie web, had the film at 130 million, which is almost dead on. So I think the tracking services that were polling 150 or higher were smoking crack, as that's way outside the margin of error.

So my basic point was, you either have to believe that their tracking methods were flawed, or that 20 million dollars worth of business just stayed home this weekend. considering how much of a jump this film was over the same weekend last year, I can only conclude that it was the former.

[redfirebird2008]

No, I understand, and my own prediction was pretty high based on that as well. In fact when I heard that early sales on movietickets.com were outgunning the original by 5 to 1, I was wondering if this could get close to 200. Seems pretty silly now, but my inner fanboy broke in as well.

What I am seeing now though is that several tracking reports, and the one I listed at movie web, had the film at 130 million, which is almost dead on. So I think the tracking services that were polling 150 or higher were smoking crack, as that's way outside the margin of error.

So my basic point was, you either have to believe that their tracking methods were flawed, or that 20 million dollars worth of business just stayed home this weekend. considering how much of a jump this film was over the same weekend last year, I can only conclude that it was the former.

Definitely. There have been plenty of examples where they screwed up. One of the tracking services had Terminator Salvation at $100m for its 5-day opening. It made $65m. :doh: :hehe:

[danoyse]

I would like to know how you can compare both box-office without try to explain the reason of their respective success ?
Lot of us think that the success of TDK was, for a big part, caused by the death of Heath Ledger, we can't make a real comparaison without to talk about what there are around these movies, during the production and the promotion (sorry for my english).

Thank for advance for the answer.

The in-depth discussion about Heath Ledger's death affecting TDK's box office belongs in the Batman forum. What we had was nearly an entire page of posts discussing that subject without a single mention of Iron Man, which is what this thread is supposed to be about. Instead, the thread was dragged entirely off-topic by the billionth Heath Ledger box office discussion.

You can compare TDK vs. Iron Man all you want - just don't make this a TDK thread.

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah I think we all got a little wrapped up in that 400 mark. You see films like DMC and TF2 edging that mark and more and it gets under the skin. Shrek 2 was at least decent, but we saw the drop off when you put out a mediocre film. Same with Spidey. I still can't decide on what the consensus is for the GA, but if it's rated slightly less than the first, it's pretty much going to do the same business as the first. I still thought a good 380 was a lock, with 400 being the cherry on the top. Now those numbers are in jeopardy. It's nothing more than greed, but we are fanboys so...

[Anita18]

I think the whole 150 million, going to challenge the Dark Knight, was pure media hype, and unfortunately I bought some of that myself.
It was definitely media hype, and it was everywhere. Media hype does that. :funny:

[solidsnake86]

I rarely get involved with box office discussions because frankly, I just don't care and its not my money that I'm making. The only thing thats important is that if you liked the film that it makes a profit in order to gaurantee another sequel. Hoping that a movie breaks records is just extra. You can't really predict these things at all, when you look at iron man 1 all in all that was a fluke and it did more then anyone could have expected with a b-rate character. On top of all that 128 million opening weekend isn't easy to achieve, I find it funny that people just brush that aside as if its nothing.

[hatebox]

It's certainly not 'nothing', but we live in a day and age where records are being broken so frequently they're almost irrelevent, much less openings that don't break records.

[dark_b]

well i hope IM3 will happen. of course RDJ will be to old. but f... it.

[Tony Stark]

Monday numbers are at 9.4 million, which is only a 69% drop from Sunday, and lower than the first films Monday drop off.

[redfirebird2008]

Monday numbers are at 9.4 million, which is only a 69% drop from Sunday, and lower than the first films Monday drop off.

Star Trek is probably a better comparison because it also came out on Mother's Day weekend, unlike Iron Man. I think the Mother's Day "holiday" hurt IM2's gross on Sunday. This leads to a stronger than expected hold on Monday, which then leads to a weaker than expected hold on Tuesday. And finally by Wednesday some of the volatility will be gone. Take a look at Star Trek's drops:

Monday - 64%...people were predicting $300+ million for it based on this drop because it was a really great hold.

Tuesday - 13% drop. The first Iron Man dropped just 6% on its first Tuesday.

Wednesday - 11% drop. This is equal to the first Iron Man's drop, which shows signs of leveling out from the Mother's Day effect.


Based on this, I'm expecting around a 12-15% drop for IM2 on Tuesday, followed by a better hold on Wednesday.

[FaT_tONle]

Crunched some numbers real quick, if the legs are as good as IM overall, it will barely eclipse 400. Really depends on the competition. Robinhood/Shrek/Persia vs SR/Narnia/Indy.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

if that SR is for Superman Returns, I'm almost positive it wasn't in the same run as Narnia, Indy and Iron Man, if that's what you're trying to say

[hatebox]

Jeez, I didn't even realise there was another Narnia film coming out. Says a lot for its chances.

[FaT_tONle]

My bad... I meant Persia. Not Narnia, which was 08. SR is Speed Racer, which bombed. Robinhood should do a lot better.

[hatebox]

Apparenlty the next Narnia film is this winter. They learnt their lesson from '08 it seems.

Robin Hood won't be a threat, but Persia could prove to be big, dumb summer fun for a lot of viewers. That will be real competition I think, even if reviews are bad.

[Tony Stark]

Jeez, I didn't even realise there was another Narnia film coming out. Says a lot for its chances.

Well the popularity of that series was in TLTWATW, the other books were much less popular.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Well the popularity of that series was in TLTWATW, the other books were much less popular.

I remember we had to read that back in middle school. Of course I didn't as that's not my type of fiction, so obviously I'm skipping on the movies

[Iceman]

Edit - responding to old post

[DW4]

well i hope IM3 will happen. of course RDJ will be to old. but f... it.

It will. Also RDJ isn't really that old, he's only 45 and for Tony Stark that could be old but the 40's are the new 30's. Also Avengers comes out in 2 years and they'll be filming next year when he's 46 and then possibly Iron Man 3 in 2013 which means he'll be filming when he's 47. If nothing drastic happens he can pull off the role in his early 50's if needed.

I see him doing Avengers, IM3 and MAYBE one more Tony Stark role.

[kedrell]

I think IM3 after the Avengers will be his finale for the role, as well as Favreau's. After that it'll be time to take a breather for the character while newer franchises fill the void and then maybe a new director/cast's take on the Iron Man franchise towards the end of the decade.

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

[Tony Stark]

It will. Also RDJ isn't really that old, he's only 45 and for Tony Stark that could be old but the 40's are the new 30's. Also Avengers comes out in 2 years and they'll be filming next year when he's 46 and then possibly Iron Man 3 in 2013 which means he'll be filming when he's 47. If nothing drastic happens he can pull off the role in his early 50's if needed.

I see him doing Avengers, IM3 and MAYBE one more Tony Stark role.

Considering Brosnan played Bond until he was nearly 50, I don't think it's a problem for Robert playing Tony Stark the same number of years.

[YJ1]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

Interesting point but Cap 2 can work as a flashback as well. Even after Avengers, if you want to go back and tell a great WWII story setting up Bucky/Winter Soldier that would work great.

You also know that Avengers 3D is going to be a mega-huge film. I'm, talking Avatar huge. So, the pressure to announce Avengers 2 will happen fast and they'll throw the bank at Downey at that point.

[Tony Stark]

Yeah it will be interesting to see who takes up the mantle. The Marvel Universe will have to go without Stark for a very long time. I mean the suits will pretty much be a common place 5-10 years from the present continuity so the legacy will be finished. I don't think Cap will be the go to guy either. Cap needs to be used selectively and not shoe-horned into every Marvel film. It will get old fast. That's why I am hoping Marvel can re-acquire the rights to their bigger characters because their A-listers will be exhausted very soon.

I think Disney/Marvel need to work on getting all the properties back in-house, and release any future films under Disney Pictures. I just think that makes the most financial sense, unless it is cheaper for them to use another studio for distribution.

I really think Marvel should try and kill this Spider-man reboot. He's their flagship character, and considering how Sony has screwed them in the past on rights, they need to get him back in house.

Now that Marvel has the backing of Disney, who have an aresenal of lawyers on retainer, they can get their characters back in house where they belong.

[kedrell]

I think Dr. Strange is almost certainly going to be the one next at bat after the current crop is done.

[FaT_tONle]

I think Disney/Marvel need to work on getting all the properties back in-house, and release any future films under Disney Pictures. I just think that makes the most financial sense, unless it is cheaper for them to use another studio for distribution.

I really think Marvel should try and kill this Spider-man reboot. He's their flagship character, and considering how Sony has screwed them in the past on rights, they need to get him back in house.

Now that Marvel has the backing of Disney, who have an aresenal of lawyers on retainer, they can get their characters back in house where they belong.

As long as Sony is sticking with high school, Marvel can just pick up where Peter Parker leaves off as a young adult. Sony probably won't get past SM6 either. Marvel may not have to completely abandon that continuity, whatever it ends up being. But DD should have already reverted and they should definitely kill FF. Fox has had X-Men since 93 so I don't think mutants will show up any time soon.

As for Stark, I could see RDJ returning to the role in his mid 50's or something if he gets bored with his other roles in the meantime. But he will be pretty grey by then. Once he does quit, I don't want to see Stark ever return unless they abandon the present continuity. Just invent another younger Stark cousin or someone else to take up the mantle.

[kedrell]

You can't have Iron Man without Tony Stark. Recastings are inevitable and people are just gonna have to deal with it. These characters are going to far outlast the original actors who play them. Now if later on down the line they want to do something like Iron Man: The End type of film and bring RDJ back for it, then fine by me.

[FaT_tONle]

Not unless they reboot. Unlike Wolverine, these characters have to age. You can't progress the current universe ten years and have a younger guy playing Stark. Now you could make an IM movie twenty years down the line that takes place several months after IM3, but as far as moving the timeline forward, why would they revisit that period? Unless Kang was time traveling back to that point or some ****, it wouldn't make sense.

[kedrell]

I don't think you need to reboot just to have a new cast. James Bond didn't need to reboot everytime he got a new actor. But if they do reboot, I've already thought of a way that I think would be kinda cool. Make the reboot a What If? type scenario. Like "What if Tony Stark had not revealed to the world that he is Iron Man?" and then do films from there.

[FaT_tONle]

The Bond movies had nothing to do with one another, even ones with the same actors. They weren't all sequels to each other. So yeah you can constantly re-imagine the character, but if you do that, you have to constantly re-imagine everything else in the universe. There would be no continuity.

[kedrell]

Fair enough about Bond but I still don't see how recasting the franchise necessarily means disregarding pre-existing continuity. I don't see why they can't just pick up where the others left off.

[FaT_tONle]

Fair enough about Bond but I still don't see how recasting the franchise necessarily means disregarding pre-existing continuity. I don't see why they can't just pick up where the others left off.

I guess you could recast, but it has to fit the years the Marvel universe has progressed. Stark can't still be 40 if 5-10 years go by in the Marvel time line. Keep in mind, WB chose not to abandon the Donner universe in SR, which was almost almost 30 years after Superman 2. IF SR had been a hit, we'd still be in the Donnerverse. Point being, if the movies worked then, they are not going to abandon it, and future films will be in line with that time line.

[Pfeiffer-Pfan]

I guess you could recast, but it has to fit the years the Marvel universe has progressed. Stark can't still be 40 if 5-10 years go by in the Marvel time line. Keep in mind, WB chose not to abandon the Donner universe in SR, which was almost almost 30 years after Superman 2. IF SR had been a hit, we'd still be in the Donnerverse. Point being, if the movies worked then, they are not going to abandon it, and future films will be in line with that time line.

The Donnerverse inclusion was no doubt more Singer's idea than WB... and it failed badly.

Studios have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to reboots and re-introductions now... If it aint fresh, why bother...

[Tony Stark]

The Donnerverse inclusion was no doubt more Singer's idea than WB... and it failed badly.

Studios have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to reboots and re-introductions now... If it aint fresh, why bother...

Well that's what they get for hiring a guy who admittedly never knew anything about the comics.

Considering what Abrams did with Star Trek, WB must be kicking themselves for not going after him. Yes his script did take some liberties with the mythos, but it was only a preliminary draft. You go back to him and say "we like this, but we want a more traditional Luthor." etc, etc.

[FaT_tONle]

Studios have an itchy trigger finger when it comes to reboots and re-introductions now... If it aint fresh, why bother...

I am not saying they don't, but honestly what are they going to do with Stark that will be such a re-imagination to the current series? Lemme guess... high school Stark for the pre-teens like the cartoon. There is pretty much no good reason whatsoever to abandon this cannon, until it is time to re-introduce it to the next generation. Or at least until they put out some B & R type films. Same goes for the Nolan cannon. We won't see a Batman year one (unless they decide to adapt that specific comic for whatever reason) for another 30 years... at least. No reason to rehash that history, because it was done as well as it will ever be done.

[Mr. Earle]

Well that's what they get for hiring a guy who admittedly never knew anything about the comics.

Considering what Abrams did with Star Trek, WB must be kicking themselves for not going after him. Yes his script did take some liberties with the mythos, but it was only a preliminary draft. You go back to him and say "we like this, but we want a more traditional Luthor." etc, etc.
A few liberties? More like a million liberties! Abraams' script was a pile of ****!

[redfirebird2008]

IM2 made around $8.4 million on Tuesday. This is a drop of around 10.3%, which is an excellent hold. Star Trek dropped more than 13% on the same Tuesday following Mother's Day last year. IM2 has also pulled ahead of SM3 in daily numbers. SM3 made $8 million on its first Tuesday with a drop of nearly 22%.

This movie should have pretty good legs IMHO, relatively speaking of course. Legs for sequels have to be taken into perspective because there is more frontloading with sequels. I think this movie has a good shot at $375 million or higher right now.

[kedrell]

A few liberties? More like a million liberties! Abraams' script was a pile of ****!

Which is why he probably shouldn't write it but I'm fully convinced that he could be an awesome director for a Supes movie, if ST is any indication.

[kedrell]

IM2 made around $8.4 million on Tuesday. This is a drop of around 10.3%, which is an excellent hold. Star Trek dropped more than 13% on the same Tuesday following Mother's Day last year. IM2 has also pulled ahead of SM3 in daily numbers. SM3 made $8 million on its first Tuesday with a drop of nearly 22%.

This movie should have pretty good legs IMHO, relatively speaking of course. Legs for sequels have to be taken into perspective because there is more frontloading with sequels. I think this movie has a good shot at $375 million or higher right now.

Excellent! I was hoping for around eight and a half million and that's what we got. I think we're going to be looking at a $60-66M second weekend. I think Iron Man's legs will become clearly more extended than the usual type of blockbuster superhero film due to it's demographic skewing older than something like Spider-Man. IM2 was about $26M ahead of IM1 after the OW. By the end of the 2nd weekend I think it'll be close to 50M ahead.

[Tony Stark]

Great numbers for Tuesday. I think the unusually cold weather across the midwest may be drawing more people to the theater.

Hopefully we'll see a good weekend. Robin Hood is getting very tepid reviews, so far, but still alot to go. Could be another Kingdom of Heaven for Ridley Scott. Doesn't seem like a Gladiator for sure.

[Tony Stark]

A few liberties? More like a million liberties! Abraams' script was a pile of ****!

It was a very early draft, and unfortunately got leaked out, and the fan community panned it before it could ever be corrected. You can thank Harry Knowles for that.

J.J. is an excellent script writer, and had he the chance to correct some of those things, I think you'd have an awesome script. He is good friends with Kevin Smith, so you bring him in on the writing staff, like he was originally supposed to be, and you go from there.

He would have been a much better choice than Singer.

[Spider-Fan]

you could always have Rhodey be Iron Man in Avengers sequels if RDJ doesn't want to come back. It's been done before.

[Figs]

Just checked Boxofficemojo for the first time since this was released. Looking at the numbers this movie is going to blow the first one out of the water. I guess it will make up for the less than great gross TIH had. Marvel/Disney should be very happy right now.

[kedrell]

I'm sure they are. It'll improve upon the 1st's gross WW by $150-200M.

[FaT_tONle]

Yeah that's a good number. Should bode well. Anything over 60 is solid as hell this weekend. Then again this may all be front loaded and we may see massive dropoffs in three weeks. We'll see what Shrek and MacGruber have to say about it.

[kedrell]

If it drops the same as the 2nd weekend of IM1 then we'd be looking at a $66M second weekend. I think it'll be a little bit less with $63-64M weekend. Stilll really good at a 50-51% drop for a large blockbuster. $400M isn't dead yet. It can just squeak by like SM1 or TF2.

[Raiden]

If it drops the same as the 2nd weekend of IM1 then we'd be looking at a $66M second weekend. I think it'll be a little bit less with $63-64M weekend. Stilll really good at a 50-51% drop for a large blockbuster. $400M isn't dead yet. It can just squeak by like SM1 or TF2.

I really hope IM2 will crack 400M, because it is now apparent that Iron Man is Marvel Studio's tentpole franchise and it is crucial that it will be perceived as a big success after the lukewarm reception of TIH. I think IM2's success will also give Marvel some momentum as it will premiere two superhero movies in the summer of 2011 (with Fox adding a third).

[kedrell]

Which Fox movie comes out next year?

[DW4]

X-Men: First Class is supposed to be released next year.


They are rushing it BIG time. They don't even have actors and I don't even know if the script is finish yet.

[kedrell]

Yeah, that's a train wreck in the making. And even though I think Vaughn is a brilliant filmmaker, he can't work miracles.

[DW4]

Agreed. Personally I feel(I'm sure a lot of people feel the same) it should be rebooted.

Unlike Spider-Man it's about time for the X-Men reboot. Enough about that though.


I also feel like Macgruber will be a huge box office flop. That doesn't look good at all. I see IM2 doing very well until PoP which like I said before might be hit.

[kedrell]

I don't think PoP will be much of a hit, but beyond the usual box office for a videogame movie. Probably Terminator: Salvation numbers.

[Anita18]

Yeah, that's a train wreck in the making. And even though I think Vaughn is a brilliant filmmaker, he can't work miracles.
I feel that they're further than they let on. I mean, Vaughn didn't put up with Fox's crap once, I don't think he'd suddenly change his mind on that sort of thing.

But yeah, boo Fox. :down:

[Microchip]

I don't think PoP will be much of a hit, but beyond the usual box office for a videogame movie. Probably Terminator: Salvation numbers.
No doubt. Prince of Persia could do well, but I think that'd be a big surprise. I get a Scorpian King vibe from it, which probably could go either way Box Office-wise.

[dark_b]

I feel that they're further than they let on. I mean, Vaughn didn't put up with Fox's crap once, I don't think he'd suddenly change his mind on that sort of thing.

But yeah, boo Fox. :down:i think the script is finished.

they dont have the full cast signed. no way. there is no way that they would have casted everyone without any leaks.

so IMO script is fininshed,all actors are not cast and not even close to filming.:woot:

[dark_b]

No doubt. Prince of Persia could do well, but I think that'd be a big surprise. I get a Scorpian King vibe from it, which probably could go either way Box Office-wise.Bruckheimer doesnt make cheap videogames and Scorpion KIng type of movies.

will it make POTC numbers? who knows. but i dont think POP will be a bomb.

[topdog1]

Great numbers for Tuesday. I think the unusually cold weather across the midwest may be drawing more people to the theater.

Hopefully we'll see a good weekend. Robin Hood is getting very tepid reviews, so far, but still alot to go. Could be another Kingdom of Heaven for Ridley Scott. Doesn't seem like a Gladiator for sure.

Robin Hood is getting beat up by some big guns. Total Film is literally calling it as bad as Battlefield Earth. Ebert and AICN absolutely hate it.

Good sign for Iron Man but bad sign for movie fans. I was hoping it was pretty good because I'm going to see it anyway. As a true fan, I'm going to buy a ticket to IM2 and walk in to see Robin Hood. So, my money is going to the right place regardless.

[rashad]

No doubt. Prince of Persia could do well, but I think that'd be a big surprise. I get a Scorpian King vibe from it, which probably could go either way Box Office-wise.

Scorpion King? That's a poor comparison imo. I think it has the potential to challenge Tomb Raider's $131M domestic gross.
http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=videogameadaptation.htm

[kedrell]

I feel that they're further than they let on. I mean, Vaughn didn't put up with Fox's crap once, I don't think he'd suddenly change his mind on that sort of thing.

But yeah, boo Fox. :down:

Yeah, him coming on board has been a serious WTF? moment for me given the past relations.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

As a true fan, I'm going to buy a ticket to IM2 and walk in to see Robin Hood. So, my money is going to the right place regardless.


^good man

[kedrell]

Scorpion King? That's a poor comparison imo. I think it has the potential to challenge Tomb Raider's $131M domestic gross.
http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=videogameadaptation.htm


That's about the best scenario for it that I can see happening. As I said, TS numbers.

[kedrell]

Bruckheimer doesnt make cheap videogames and Scorpion KIng type of movies.

will it make POTC numbers? who knows. but i dont think POP will be a bomb.


No but he does make junk food cinema. Probably why he works with Bay a lot.

[kedrell]

Robin Hood is getting beat up by some big guns. Total Film is literally calling it as bad as Battlefield Earth. Ebert and AICN absolutely hate it.

Good sign for Iron Man but bad sign for movie fans. I was hoping it was pretty good because I'm going to see it anyway. As a true fan, I'm going to buy a ticket to IM2 and walk in to see Robin Hood. So, my money is going to the right place regardless.

Nice.:woot: I'll be doing the same except I'll be bypassing the Robin Hood door and seeing IM2 again since RH hasn't all the uninteresting trailers haven't given me one reason to go see it.

[rashad]

$7 million Wednesday. It'll make somewhere in the $50-55M range this weekend.

[Tony Stark]

$7 million Wednesday. It'll make somewhere in the $50-55M range this weekend.

I don't see that happening unless Robin hood had smash success, and right now it's getting panned by the critics.

[kedrell]

$7 million Wednesday. It'll make somewhere in the $50-55M range this weekend.

It;s not great nor bad. It's just an average drop. Most people(BO analysts) were expecting this drop Tuesday and a stabilization yesterday. It ended up flipping it but still no big deal. Today's drop will be much lower, probably to around 6.5M. $60M or more is still very much in play for this weekend.

[Figs]

Something tells me that Robin Hood isn't going to hurt Iron Man's box office take. I wouldn't be surprised at all if(more like when)IM2 stays at #1.

[Tony Stark]

I think Robin Hood will be this years Kingdom of Heaven. It's getting panned by the critics, and I think it was never expected to compete for no 1, so if it ends up on the low end of expectations (under 20 mil) theres a chance some of that business could go back to IM2.

[kedrell]

I'd say KoH actually looked more interesting than RH. At least it was set during a period/place that we didn't usually get to see(the crusades in palestine). But this just looks like another Robin Hood movie like the Kevin Costner film that seems to morph into a war movie. When I think Robin Hood, I don't think war movie. Just seems kinda uninspired which is too bad since Crowe & Blanchette are good actors and Scott is a good director. But it just seems to lack a unique hook or draw factor. Seems like a very by-the-numbers historical film. I may rent it.

[Anita18]

Robin Hood is getting beat up by some big guns. Total Film is literally calling it as bad as Battlefield Earth. Ebert and AICN absolutely hate it.

Good sign for Iron Man but bad sign for movie fans. I was hoping it was pretty good because I'm going to see it anyway. As a true fan, I'm going to buy a ticket to IM2 and walk in to see Robin Hood. So, my money is going to the right place regardless.
Bad sign for Ridley Scott too. What happened to the guy who did Blade Runner and Alien? :waa:

[rashad]

Actuals for Wed.
$6,951,326 -17.1%

[hatebox]

Bad sign for Ridley Scott too. What happened to the guy who did Blade Runner and Alien? :waa:

Scott's always been a very tasteful filmmaker - the only time he's every really given into popularism/commercialism was with Gladiator. He's almost too tasteful for his own good. The trouble is his recent blockbusters like Kingdom of Heaven and Robin Hood don't really offer anything new like BR or Alien did, so all that's left is for them is to be fun and spectacular. Which, from the sounds of it, they aren't.

Robin Hood will be very lucky to get over $40m this weekend. If it had had great reviews it might have been the surprise hit of the summer, but surely not now.

IM2 seems to be holding well and will enjoy another good weekend. Nothing amazing, but the studio will be perfectly satisfied.

[Raiden]

I think Robin Hood will be this years Kingdom of Heaven. It's getting panned by the critics, and I think it was never expected to compete for no 1, so if it ends up on the low end of expectations (under 20 mil) theres a chance some of that business could go back to IM2.

I just read Harry's review for Robin Hood at AICN, and while I don't usually care about his opinion, his review does seemed to portray the movie as dready, dull, and not very Robin Hood-centric. And since the critics are trashing RH left and right, I too doubt that it will mount a serious competition to IM2. I'm beginning to worry about Ridley Scott's upcoming reboot of Alien movie that he did almost 30 years ago.

[kedrell]

Scott's always been a very tasteful filmmaker - the only time he's every really given into popularism/commercialism was with Gladiator. He's almost too tasteful for his own good. The trouble is his recent blockbusters like Kingdom of Heaven and Robin Hood don't really offer anything new like BR or Alien did, so all that's left is for them is to be fun and spectacular. Which, from the sounds of it, they aren't.

I actually could appreciate KoH. At least it showed us a period and place that most historical movies don't. RH really doesn't have that going for it.

[DW4]

I actually could appreciate KoH. At least it showed us a period and place that most historical movies don't. RH really doesn't have that going for it.

The original theatrical cut for KoH was pretty bad.

...but the Extended edition was BRILLIANT. I can't believe how much they left out. If they stuck with the Extended edition and edited some things around this could of been one of the best(box office wise as well) historical movies ever.

[TheVileOne]

Iron Man 2 will beat the DOA Robin Hood this weekend. It will also get a nice boost from Memorial Day weekend.

[Agent Orange]

I can't believe that Ridley Scott thought that it was a good idea to re-visit Robin Hood today and make it deadly serious in the process.

Iron Man has this weekend.

[hatebox]

The original theatrical cut for KoH was pretty bad.

...but the Extended edition was BRILLIANT. I can't believe how much they left out. If they stuck with the Extended edition and edited some things around this could of been one of the best(box office wise as well) historical movies ever.

It's sort of Scott's own fault - he's obsessed with recutting his movies after release.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

I can't believe that Ridley Scott thought that it was a good idea to re-visit Robin Hood today and make it deadly serious in the process.

Iron Man has this weekend.

I'll take a serious Robin Hood movie any day of the week, it's the casting, image, and lack of action that I have a problem with and helped me reach the conclusion that I'll be skipping this all together.

you know I saw him shoot 1 freaking arrow in the trailers, ONE!!!!!!! :doh:

[Marvin]

like in 2008 it looks like Ironman will coast past a few weekends due to duds being released.

[kedrell]

The original theatrical cut for KoH was pretty bad.

...but the Extended edition was BRILLIANT. I can't believe how much they left out. If they stuck with the Extended edition and edited some things around this could of been one of the best(box office wise as well) historical movies ever.

I only saw the theatrical cut. Even so, the time/place aspect was enough to pique my curiosity since I couldn't remember seeing a film about the crusades before. But I had no desire to see it anymore after I had seen it once, unlike movies like Braveheart which have more re-watchability.

[chiefchirpa]

Marvel should release Thor full pic this week or the next.

That should boost some Iron Man 2 interest again before POP comes in.

[TheVileOne]

It's at close to $160 million now before the second weekend. So it's pretty much guaranteed to break $200 million next weekend. It should do a solid Memorial Day as well which always gives movies a boost at the BO.

[rashad]

That much is obvious.

[TheVileOne]

I mean that I think $400 million domestic is not outside the realm of possibility.

Why? The competition coming up is weak as **** and there's a holiday weekend coming up.

Just remember, Iron man outgrossed Indy 4 at domestic box office ;) .

[kedrell]

It'll fall in the $350-400M range domestic. I'm splitting the difference and guessing $375M but I hope for $400M. It's at $159M so far as of yesterday. It also(since Tuesday) has been making $200-400K more everyday than SM3's same weekdays and SM3 made $58.1M on it's 2nd weekend. I don't see why IM2 doesn't have a shot at a $60M weekend for a 53.1% drop...which is damn decent. That would put it at around $219-220M after this weekend. SM3 was at $240M at the same time but I think IM2 is going to continue to catch up pretty quickly, despite opening to $23M less. I give it 2 weeks from now and it will have out paced SM3 completely.

[kedrell]

The main thing SM3 has in it's favor that IM2 doesn't was that on it's 2nd weekend the #2 movie behind it didn't even crack $10M. RH is guaranteed to surpass that at least, probably by 3 times.

[Spider-Vader]

I mean that I think $400 million domestic is not outside the realm of possibility.

Why? The competition coming up is weak as **** and there's a holiday weekend coming up.

Just remember, Iron man outgrossed Indy 4 at domestic box office ;) .

I have a feeling IM2 could stay at #1 until Shrek 4 opens.

[rashad]

Early numbers $16M Friday
Estimated Weekend: IM2 - 53M Robin Hood - 40M
http://www.deadline.com/hollywood/

About what I estimated a few pages back.

[TheVileOne]

We'll see. I'll wait until Sunday or Monday. Sometimes those estimates are wrong as last weekend proves since they overestimated Iron man 2's opening weekend.

[hatebox]

If it gets $53m that's a 59% drop - not a massive amount but more than the studio would have hoped for. I personally thought it would be no more than 55%. These are of course very early estimates so we'll see.

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.

[chiefchirpa]

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.

225m? That's just crazy. If the subject material is original it might gain slightly more interest. But it's Robin Hood. It's been done to death in past cinema.

Avengers should be 250m if Robbie H takes 225m to make.

[kedrell]

16M? Yep, like I said in my last post, RH took a bite out of the friday number. I thought it would stay ahead of SM3 otherwise. I do expect that Friday will be the day hardest hit and IM2's saturday increase will likely seem higher than expected with RH's Saturday dropping off. I think Friday will end up being RH's largest single day. I thought IM2 could do 18M or so at best with a 25-26M Saturday. I still think a 24-25M Saturday is likely for IM2 with a 13M Saturday for RH. But $60M hopes are now likely gone for IM2's 2nd weekend, but hopefully it can stay above $55M.

[Doctor Jones]

I still see IM2 to do well out of all of this. It could dwindle in the last part of this month but will still survive I think.

I really want POP to do well, so I'm not worried about this film breaking even.

[FaT_tONle]

These legs are nowhere near as good as the first one. Should still outgross IM, but not by much. Not to be a party pooper, but it just seems the WOM and reviews are cutting its business well short of the lofty expectations they had. Shrek 4 should still be huge, because its 3-D. PoP is a wild card although I can't expect huge numbers there.

[Mr. Earle]

So how is IM2 doing? How much money did it make in its first weekend and where does that put it in comparison to other comic book movies?

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

I'd like to know the concensus as well, how's it doing compared to last week and the first installment around this time as well as over all. Is it looking like it's going to stay another couple of weeks, another month? ............

[kedrell]

It's only behind TDK & SM3 at this point. It'll outgross SM3 I'm pretty confident(at least domestic) and come in probably around SM2 numbers, give or take 10-15M or so. 3rd or 4th highest grossing superhero movie of all time, most likely. Unadjusted, of course.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil. Anyway that drop looks okay to me but unless the movie goes up huge on saturday I seriously doubt that it has a shot at 400mil. Right now, I'm thinking 345 to 365mil. It's international numbers aren't all that special so it should do less overseas.

[superion]

Damn I wanted this to do at least as well as the other metal movie Transformers 2. I can't believe it will lose out to that crap movie.

[hatebox]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil.

With less numbers they can usually be more accurate, and I suspect the studio will have learnt its lesson from last week.

Still, if the figure is anything under $51m that'll be more than a 60% drop, which is quite a bit.

[kedrell]

There's no way it'll be under 51M. I have no doubt of that.

[ddddeeee]

Friday was overestimated, now Hollywood Reporter claims it's a 14M Friday. This is dropping a good bit over 60% and it won't pass SM3. :csad:

[FaT_tONle]

If Iron Man can't floor it overseas, can't imagine how bad Cap is going to do.

[hatebox]

Can't see Captain America being overly popular in Europe or elsewhere - we rarely love superhero films as it is!

[hatebox]

Friday was overestimated, now Hollywood Reporter claims it's a 14M Friday. This is dropping a good bit over 60% and it won't pass SM3. :csad:

Link? Their article says 'roughly' $15m from what I can see.

[ddddeeee]

Link? Their article says 'roughly' $15m from what I can see.

http://hollywoodinsider.ew.com/2010/05/15/box-office-update-iron-man-2-robin-hood-friday/

[hatebox]

Well, that's EW rather than the HW, but ok.

[kedrell]

I think friday's number isn't indicative of the whole weekend in this case. RH probably took it's biggest chunk out of IM2's gross on that day.

[Iron_Stark]

Well this blows, I wanted it to make at least $1 more than the f'n Transformers 2 movie.

[Blade X]

Damn I wanted this to do at least as well as the other metal movie Transformers 2. I can't believe it will lose out to that crap movie.

I feel your pain.

That all being said, as crappy as TRANSFORMERS:ROTF was, it had the one thing that IM2 was lacking, lot's of cool and lengthy fight/action scenes. I strongly believe that if IM2 had a lot more (and lengthy) fight/action scenes this movie might have easily out grossed TF:ROTF.

[rashad]

BOM Friday Estimate $15,075,000

[Anita18]

If Robin Hood gets as much as $40m which Deadline suggests I'll be surprised. Can't believe its budget was $225m - talk about relying on the international market.
Bwuh? :wow:

BOM Actuals $15,075,000
Interesting - they usually come up with actuals the Monday after.

[Bruce Malone]

I feel your pain.

That all being said, as crappy as TRANSFORMERS:ROTF was, it had the one thing that IM2 was lacking, lot's of cool and lengthy fight/action scenes. I strongly believe that if IM2 had a lot more (and lengthy) fight/action scenes this movie might have easily out grossed TF:ROTF.

You know what? i think that's actually very indicative of the foreign BO. If you think about it spider-man 3 is the top grossing superhero movie in pure overseas grosses i mean despite being way behind in critical success it made more than TDK or Iron Man 1 or any of the other spider mans.

It had a lot of action.

[rashad]

Scratch that. I meant to put estimate instead of actuals.. lol

[topdog1]

Well this blows, I wanted it to make at least $1 more than the f'n Transformers 2 movie.

I was going to spend $10 on dinner tonight but instead, I'm going hungry to pad IM2 numbers. I'd rather buy another ticket then see Robin Hood win this race and eat.

[Iron_Stark]

Yeah, I'm going again tomorrow to see the movie again.

[hatebox]

You know what? i think that's actually very indicative of the foreign BO. If you think about it spider-man 3 is the top grossing superhero movie in pure overseas grosses i mean despite being way behind in critical success it made more than TDK or Iron Man 1 or any of the other spider mans.

It had a lot of action.

Obviously the international market is made up of many, many countries so it's wrong to generalize, but my theory is it simply takes longer for franchises and brands to take hold out there, it's almost like they're a sequel/installment behind the US. But when they do take hold they're even more critic and word-of-mouth proof. I wouldn't be surprised if the TDK sequel makes as much internationally as TDK did (although I obviously hope it's a good film anyway).

[hatebox]

I was going to spend $10 on dinner tonight but instead, I'm going hungry to pad IM2 numbers. I'd rather buy another ticket then see Robin Hood win this race and eat.

Shoulda just eaten - Robin Hood wouldn't have won anyway.

[Tony Stark]

It will be interesting to see the rest of the numbers. comic book movies are usually front loaded, but if it ends up being 52, that will be under 60%, barely.

Personally, I'm wondering if Paramount is lowballing the estimates considering what happened last weekend. I would not be suprised if this ends up being the 55M weekend they suspected.

As for Robin Hood, I'm not convinced until tomorrow. Never underestimate the "Renessaince Faire" factor. That is people who will go see anything with a medevil theme on opening night, just so they can dress up in their tights and lederhosen.

If it does make 40 million, apparently crap reviews don't mean anything for box office take.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

well that's a complete shocker, I definitley was not expecting this type of reception for this particular movie. Go back in time and ask me last year or earlier this year, and I would've sworn it was gonna be the biggest superhero film next to TDK.

[Bruce Malone]

Obviously the international market is made up of many, many countries so it's wrong to generalize, but my theory is it simply takes longer for franchises and brands to take hold out there, it's almost like they're a sequel/installment behind the US. But when they do take hold they're even more critic and word-of-mouth proof. I wouldn't be surprised if the TDK sequel makes as much internationally as TDK did (although I obviously hope it's a good film anyway).

I think its a couple things. Lack of an established fan base. Comic books and super-heroes mainly are not as popular overseas i believe, another things may be the language barrier. Films with simpler plot line and dialogue are easier to translate to other languages while heavy action needs no translation (Take avatar's success for example).

I gotta believe it can't be too easy to accurately capture all of tony starks quips in another language.

[Spider-Fan]

Dropping 59% percent is not terrible, but also not good. I agree, 400 mil domestic is a longshot. However, I think that was asking a lot of it in the first place. I still think this has to go down as a success for Marvel, even if it craps out around 350mil.

As for the point on Captain America, I don't think we can compare Cap's BO to IM's. They have different appeal, style, Cap's not a sequel, and come out at different points in the year. Thor is more similar in comparison due to the weekend date, but still not a good comparison (given that is not a sequel and a different style entirely).

As far as international numbers go, really only the Spidey films and TDK have been huge internationally. Most comic films don't do that well overseas. Superheroes are a primarily American phenomenon.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope the studio doesn't overestimate this weekend by 5.5mil. Anyway that drop looks okay to me but unless the movie goes up huge on saturday I seriously doubt that it has a shot at 400mil. Right now, I'm thinking 345 to 365mil. It's international numbers aren't all that special so it should do less overseas.What was I thinking with this post?

The first one did a 14.9mil friday and this has only done 15.1mil. Even if it had done that 16mil it was still going to drop pretty hard and considering it didn't open too much higher than the first one. I'd say these aren't okay numbers. They aren't Wolverine or X3 style numbers but they are pretty disappointing.

I'm thinking 52mil right now for a slightly under 60percent drop. It really is all going to depend on the saturday numbers so it could do better than I'm thinking but right now I wouldn't be surprised if it went under 50mil. I personally don't think that the WOM on this movie is very good but we'll have wait for the third weekend to be sure.

I now predict that the movie ends with about 315 to 340mil.

[FaT_tONle]

You know what... **** TF2 and **** 400 million. It's a number... nothing more. We'll get over it. If anything it keeps Marvel hungry. If they continue to be conservative and not take chances, settle for mediocrity or what has worked in the past, their numbers will level off. Easy money should no longer apply to CB movies. People are well past that. Go out there and earn it.

[rashad]

What was I thinking with this post?

The first one did a 14.9mil friday and this has only done 15.1mil. Even if it had done that 16mil it was still going to drop pretty hard and considering it didn't open too much higher than the first one. I'd say these aren't okay numbers. They aren't Wolverine or X3 style numbers but they are pretty disappointing.

I'm thinking 52mil right now for a slightly under 60percent drop. It really is all going to depend on the saturday numbers so it could do better than I'm thinking but right now I wouldn't be surprised if it went under 50mil. I personally don't think that the WOM on this movie is very good but we'll have wait for the third weekend to be sure.

I now predict that the movie ends with about 315 to 340mil.

It loses IMAX theaters after this weekend too.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I just hope that Captain America and Thor are better than Iron Man 2 and I hope that they are not just a build up to the Avengers movie.

If Iron Man 2 was a great movie to me and was doing these numbers I'd mostly only care about me loving the film. Marvel has only had one good movie out of three as far as I'm concerned and that is not a good track record...To be fair I've only liked the Nolan Batman movies and Watchmen out of all the big DC/WB comicbook movies so their track record is even worse IMHO. I realize that I'm in the minority regarding that opinion but whocares?

It loses IMAX theaters after this weekend too.Thats going to hurt it too. I think that it will make more but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it did less than the first. If it stays above 300mil thats not going to be awful or anything but I expected better considering the first movie didn't make 400mil.

[Anita18]

I just hope that Captain America and Thor are better than Iron Man 2 and I hope that they are not just a build up to the Avengers movie.
Something tells me Captain America won't do too hot overseas....:o

[rashad]

Deadline Hollywood Estimates.
Friday $15.2M (-70%), Saturday $21M, Weekend $49M, Cume $208.5M

[hatebox]

If it's $49m that's a 62% drop, which is bordering on 'quite a steep drop' territory. Marvel will definitely be disappointed if this movie doesn't make more than the first domestically, IMO.

[jmc]

^ Surely that won't happen.

[hatebox]

It's unlikely, but it depends on future drops. If this weekend estimate holds it'll be $24m ahead of where its predecessor was at the same point, but if the drops remain near the 60% range that could even out.

I still expect it to make more, but not a lot more it seems. At this rate if it cracks $350m I'll be surprised.