The 'Transformers 3' Box Office Prediction Thread

[Chris B]

It's early, but I figured since there's a thread like this in the Cap, GL, and Thor forums, it'd be worth having one like this here.

So what kind of box office numbers do you think TF3 will make?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the final domestic gross will fall somewhere into the $350-375 million range. Its biggest hinderance will of course be the mixed/less than stellar reaction to ROTF. I also don't think the absence of Megan Fox will have that much of an impact as suggested in some places.

[S.A.A.D.]

Domestic:$417 million.

[WarBlade]

I figured since there's a thread like this in the Cap, GL, and Thor forums, it'd be worth having one like this here.

Nah, you're flat out wrong with that guess. :oldrazz:

[Marvin]

400 mill on the dot

unlike some films it will have to deal with a stacked summer, however not as stacked as 2012.

the absence of fox will play well imo, for this is a franchise that needs more of the same but also needs something fresh. and the trailers will look somewhat fresh with a new love interest as opposed to another glamour shot of fox(who isn't so popular anymore) plus I'm looking forward to seeing how bay shoots chicago.

[chaseter]

It will make less than the second movie.

I will guess $350 domestic. This thread should have a poll:o

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's obviously not going to make as much as the second film but thats not a problem because it will still be huge. I'm thinking 300 to 350mil.

[dark_b]

dont forget that TF3 will be in 3D and is using 3D cameras.

[chaseter]

Yes but couple in the second one leaving a bad taste and the really full 2011 summer.

[dark_b]

so even if it sells less tickets then Tf2 then with 3D it could come close to Tf2 numbers.

right?

[Marvin]

actually due to ticket sale inflation, this movies gross will be propotionately larger than the last, but that mostly depends on if reviewers bash the 3d or not.

[chaseter]

so even if it sells less tickets then Tf2 then with 3D it could come close to Tf2 numbers.

right?

I took into account 3D sales for my prediction. Next summer is jam packed full of big movies:

May 6 - Thor
Pirates 4 - May 20
Hangover 2 - May 26
Kung fu Panda 2 - May 26
X-Men Prequel - June 3
Green Lantern - June 17
Cars 2 - June 24
Transformers 3 - July 1

and here is the thing that is going to kill Transformers dead in the water

***Harry Potter - July 15
Captain America - July 22

That gives Transformers 2 weeks to haul in about $350 million if it is going to surpass the second and I just don't see it doing that...I am being nice and thinking it will make about $70 million after those two weeks...very nice.

[dark_b]

Captain America? ;)

[chaseter]

Harry Potter will kill everything still in theatres when it opens.

[matrix_ghost]

I really don't see why everyone is thinking that potter will cause problems for tf 3 when the first and second tf movie also opened a week or two before a potter movie.
Yes worldwide potter outgrossed tf , but domestic tf won
2007:
tf1 319 million
hp ootp 292 million

2009
tf2 402 million
hp hbp 301 million

[chaseter]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take!

[MessiahDecoy123]

But Wolverine sucked. It didn't deserve to make as much as X2.

a better example would be The Incredible Hulk because it was a fairly decent movie that followed a movie that was unpopular with the public.

[MessiahDecoy123]

I need to see a trailer before I predict TF3's gross.

[chaseter]

But Wolverine sucked. It didn't deserve to make as much as X2.

a better example would be The Incredible Hulk because it was a fairly decent movie that followed a movie that was unpopular with the public.

Revenge of the Fallen sucked and as you can see by these boards, people are weary to come back to get kicked in the balls again. Even if a movie sucks, see Spider-Man 3 for example, people will go out in droves because they think the movie is going to be awesome because the last film was awesome. This movie isn't coming off of an amazing second movie to get people hyped for the third film. So, my Wolverine example holds. The Spider-Man reboot won't make as much as SM2 or SM3 made because it is coming off of SM3.

[Figs]

Yes but couple in the second one leaving a bad taste and the really full 2011 summer.

How were the DVD/Blu-ray sales for it?

I'm just wondering how many people that make up the GA actually hated it compared to movie geeks like us.

[Jake Cassidy]

It was the highest selling dvd of 2009.

That, obviously, means that the majority hated it.

[Jake Cassidy]

edit

[MessiahDecoy123]

How many dvds did TF2 sell compared to TF1?

[chaseter]

It was the highest selling dvd of 2009.

That, obviously, means that the majority hated it.

No it wasn't, Twilight was...by a million units.

[chaseter]

How many dvds did TF2 sell compared to TF1?

Transformers sold over 13 million copies and Revenge of the Fallen sold just over 9 million. This is by year. In 2008 Transformers sold another 1.5 million copies. This year, Revenge of the Fallen isn't even in the top 50 selling dvds.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Actually I found this list.

Top 100 DVD Sales Of All Time

* as of 10 January 2010


1 1 FINDING NEMO Animated 23.600.000
2 2 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: THE CURSE OF THE BLACK PEARL J. Depp 21.500.000
3 3 SHREK 2 Animated 20.400.000
4 5 THE DARK KNIGHT Christian Bale, Michael Caine 18.793.000
5 6 TRANSFORMERS Shia LaBoeuf, Tyrese Gibson 18.270.000
6 4 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST Johnny Depp 17.383.000
7 9 CARS Animated 16.185.000
8 7 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE FELLOWSHIP OF THE RING Elijah Wood 16.000.000
9 8 THE INCREDIBLES Animated 15.600.000
10 10 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE TWO TOWERS Elijah Wood 14.930.000
11 11 SPIDER-MAN Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 14.769.000
12 12 THE CHRONICLES OF NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH.. Georgie Henley 14.725.000
13 13 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Johnny Depp 14.197.000
14 18 HAPPY FEET Animated 14.180.000
15 21 THE POLAR EXPRESS Tom Hanks 13.932.000
16 14 300 Gerard Butler, Lena Headey 13.900.000
17 15 THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING Elijah Wood 13.800.000
18 16 RATATOUILLE Animated 13.500.000
19 17 SHREK Animated 13.500.000
20 20 IRON MAN Robert Downey Jr, Terrence Howard 13.300.000
21 23 MONSTERS, INC. Animated 13.272.000
22 19 MADAGASCAR Animated 13.200.000
23 22 SHREK THE THIRD Animated 12.700.000
24 24 HARRY POTTER AND THE GOBLET OF FIRE Daniel Radcliffe 12.600.000
25 26 HARRY POTTER AND THE SORCERER'S STONE Daniel Radcliffe 12.400.000
26 25 THE PASSION OF THE CHRIST Jim Caviezel, Luca Lionello 12.040.000
27 27 SPIDER-MAN 2 Tobey Maguire, Kirsten Dunst 11.723.000
28 30 HARRY POTTER AND THE ORDER OF PHOENIX Daniel Radcliffe 11.637.000
29 28 HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN Daniel Radcliffe 11.600.000
30 51 TWILIGHT Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson 11.588.000
31 NE TRANSFORMERS: REVENGE OF THE FALLEN Shia LaBeouf, Megan Fox 11.520.000
32 29 THE MATRIX Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 11.000.000
33 31 HARRY POTTER AND THE CHAMBER OF SECRETS Daniel Radcliffe 10.900.000
34 32 BATMAN BEGINS Christian Bale, Liam Neeson 10.810.000
35 35 THE NOTEBOOK Ryan Gosling, Rachel McAdams 10.680.000
36 33 STAR WARS: EPISODE II - ATTACK OF THE CLONES Ewan McGregor 10.500.000
37 34 WALL-E Animated 10.400.000
38 36 STAR WARS: EPISODE III - REVENGE OF THE SITH Hayden Christensen 9.850.000
39 37 ICE AGE Animated 9.500.000
40 48 MY BIG FAT GREEK WEDDING Nia Vardalos, John Corbett 9.470.000
41 NE UP Animated 9.433.000
42 38 PEARL HARBOR Ben Affleck, Kate Beckinsale 9.400.000
43 39 SHARK TALE Animated 9.400.000
44 40 KUNG FU PANDA Animated 9.335.000
45 41 NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM Ben Stiller, Carla Gugino 9.300.000
46 44 ICE AGE 2: THE MELTDOWN Animated 9.289.000
47 NE THE HANGOVER Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms 9.121.000
48 42 NATIONAL TREASURE Nicolas Cage, Jon Voight 8.960.000
49 43 THE DEPARTED Leonardo DiCaprio, Matt Damon 8.940.000
50 45 THE MATRIX RELOADED Keanu Reeves, Laurence Fishburne 8.800.000

[MessiahDecoy123]

So TF2 sold much less dvds than TF1.

That doesn't bode well for the TF3.

[Jake Cassidy]

I don't even know why I'm here. I don't really care how much money a movie makes. :woot:

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yes you do.

You know you want to use ever increasing box office figures to defend Bay's movies. :o

[Jake Cassidy]

I don't defend Bay's movies. I just happen to like some of them. I never followed who directed what until I came here. I didn't even know that Bay directed Bad Boys and The Rock at the time I saw them. I never used to care. I still don't that much. I don't see movies based on who the director is. :yay:

[S.A.A.D.]

So TF2 sold much less dvds than TF1.

That doesn't bode well for the TF3.

I sort of disagree,it only sold 7 million dvd copies less compared to Transformers 1. 11 is pretty close 18,it could have been much worse. :o

[MessiahDecoy123]

A 40% drop in dvd sales is still a bad sign.

[chaseter]

The first movie had good word of mouth...the second one not so much.

[Jake Cassidy]

What about blu-ray?

[S.A.A.D.]

I would also like to point out that some people give things a second chance,so there will be some who will give TF 3 a second chance,even if they like the trailer for it but were iffy about the movie.

[<(o_o)>]

500,000,000,000:woot:

[Jake Cassidy]

^ Yeah. :woot:

**** you James Cameron!!!

[chaseter]

They are using James' 3D cameras so no **** James Cameron.

[Weadazoid]

I don't know the last one had to leave a bad taste.... it just kinda gave me a headache...

I am guessing it scales back to 250 domestic

[chaseter]

It left a bad taste...look at this ghost town of a forum for example. This place was bustling this time 2 years ago. The critics and fans both panned Revenge of the Fallen. It was mediocre at best.

[Weadazoid]

Much like PotC and the Matrix 3rd movies this one just may fall on the sword left by the ill fated 2nd movie.

[chaseter]

Well POTC3 and Matrix 3 were mediocre as well. I hope this film can at least match or top the first film.

[matrix_ghost]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take!

Should've replied earlier.
Even with the last Potter movie , i still think that TF will perform well. SPiderman 3 and X3 are always used as examples of movies where the BO sales aren't spectacular due to the reception they got. Spiderman 3 managed to hit 338 million domestc and X3 234 million ( i think).
But the 400 million gross of ROTF is amazing. I have my problems with ROTF but i doubt the movie really is that badly received as people make it out to be.

As for WOlverine , that really was a combination of things that ultimately led to it's failure
1) of course X3 and following months of more and more info being known of what Rothman really was up to
2) Wolverine didn't have the best marketing nor was it's trailers jawdropping like ROTF. The moment we saw the giant unicycle decepticon destroying everything and Optimus clinging on it , people were like "YEAH ! I need to see this". Wolverine at its best was just meh
3) Don't forget that the movie was leaked online and that really spread the word on just how much it sucked.

If the movie is good , i think that people will come.
Look at the SW prequels. The 3rd movie is the best of prequels and while it may not have made more then the first , it definately made more then the 2nd.

[chaseter]

SM3 and X3 did good because SM2 and X2 were great movies. When you have a great previous movie and a great marketing campaign for the sequel, then the sequel is going to rack in huge numbers despite the quality.

When a sequel is coming off a mediocre/hideous previous movie, no matter what the marketing is, the movie isn't going to do as well because people are more cautious.

I don't see this passing 300 million and I see Potter passing 300 million so I think that is where we will part ways. But yes, 400 million for ROTF was amazing but the majority of fans and critics panned it and I lay much of that box office success on as my first paragraph described, a highly liked first movie and great marketing.

[Weadazoid]

SM3 and X3 did good because SM2 and X2 were great movies. When you have a great previous movie and a great marketing campaign for the sequel, then the sequel is going to rack in huge numbers despite the quality.

When a sequel is coming off a mediocre/hideous previous movie, no matter what the marketing is, the movie isn't going to do as well because people are more cautious.

I don't see this passing 300 million and I see Potter passing 300 million so I think that is where we will part ways. But yes, 400 million for ROTF was amazing but the majority of fans and critics panned it and I lay much of that box office success on as my first paragraph described, a highly liked first movie and great marketing.




Also face it as far as eye candy goes, it did have some pretty fantastic fight sequences.

Prime taking on Black out Megatron and Star Scream in the forest still goes down as one of my favorite well done fight sequences in a movie ever.


That being said, the plot was TERRIBLE it was disjointed and the end was so....... CRAP.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

3D is not going to suddenly add 100mil on the next Transformers total. People are already getting tired of 3D, they are tired of paying more money for bad movies. Shrek 4 was in 3D and it didn't make as much as the first or second or third movie. Transformers 3 will still be a big hit but it's a 3rd movie coming off of a sequel that wasn't even well recieved by it's hardcore fans. If it doesn't fall off from the 2nd and potentionally the 1st I will be shocked.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Franchises known for eye candy get a 3-D boost.

So it's possible TF3 will get a boost.

[Sentinel X]

1) This is the last book of the Potter franchise.
2) Revenge of the Fallen will have left a bad taste in people's mouths, see Wolverine. Everyone hated X3 and Wolverine suffered for it. Wolverine barely beat X1's domestic take! Didn't wolverine pull in an 87 million dollar opening weekend? That sounds pretty damn good to me. I don't think Wolverine suffered much from X3...it suffered from bad WOM.

I actually don't think TF3 will do significantly worse than TF2. It'll probably make anywhere from 360 -400 million. I dont expect it to make more than TF2...but who knows

[Marvin]

as bad as tf2 "was" it still somehow just kept on trucking in the money and that opening was in reach of dark knight...the point being people just can't resist seeing it in theaters. even the talkbackers that are dedidcated haters just have to see.

If TF2 was as good as it could have been it probably would have made about another 150 mill.

anyways I think it will make about 50mill less than the previous one even though it will be much better and due to the inflated 3D price tag it will match if not surpass the previous installment.
especially with every commercial demanding we go see the spectacle with camerons camras.

[chaseter]

Didn't wolverine pull in an 87 million dollar opening weekend? That sounds pretty damn good to me. I don't think Wolverine suffered much from X3...it suffered from bad WOM.

I actually don't think TF3 will do significantly worse than TF2. It'll probably make anywhere from 360 -400 million. I dont expect it to make more than TF2...but who knows

Yes and it ended up making....drum roll.....$179 million.:doh: It made $22 million more than X1 and adjusted for inflation, it made less.

Sure $87 million opening is good, but TLS made $102 and X2 made $85 million opening weekend. If X3 was a great movie, I guarantee you that Wolverine would have made more than $87 million opening weekend. Plus, a lot of people just didn't go see it because of course, WOM, and how much they hated X3. WOM didn't hurt Revenge of the Fallen and critics and fans seemed to pan it. It did good because the GA loved the first one and flocked out to see this one.

I don't think this is going to get near $400 million. We will see. This thread needs a poll!

[Weadazoid]

X3 was HIGHLY ANTICIPATED... and because that summer opened crappily with the Poisiedon Adventure and MI2 Everyone was all about seeing the new X men movie.


It was really...very bad... everyhting including the effects just kind of fell appart towards the end...it was rushed and it felt rushed and we should all blame fox for settling for low grade stuff like X3 and FF2.... they ruined franchises and now both are going to have to start over.

[chaseter]

I remember going to the midnight showing of X3. Everyone was excited, people were dressed up, and then the movie started. When the credits rolled it was dead silent and everyone walking out were talking about how much it sucked. Same with Revenge of the Fallen and same with SM3.

I am going to be skeptical about this film and I think most people are also doing the same.

[Theweepeople]

I remember going to the midnight showing of X3. Everyone was excited, people were dressed up, and then the movie started. When the credits rolled it was dead silent and everyone walking out were talking about how much it sucked. Same with Revenge of the Fallen and same with SM3.

I am going to be skeptical about this film and I think most people are also doing the same.

I had similar experiences with both movies except I don't remember anyone dressing up. The audience I saw X3 with never really got into the film. It was dead silent after we all left the theater. As for Spider-man 3 everyone was into the film until Peter Parker started dancing. The second time Parker started dancing some people got up and started leaving the theater.:oldrazz:

[Hound89]

I had similar experiences with both movies except I don't remember anyone dressing up. The audience I saw X3 with never really got into the film. It was dead silent after we all left the theater. As for Spider-man 3 everyone was into the film until Peter Parker started dancing. The second time Parker started dancing some people got up and started leaving the theater.:oldrazz:
Exact opposite for my theater we all thought it was funny

[chaseter]

You thought "Dig on thisssssss..." was funny???

[Hound89]

You thought "Dig on thisssssss..." was funny???
how was it not?

[chaseter]

Maybe if Roger Rabbit did it.

[Hound89]

Maybe if Roger Rabbit did it.

Roger rabbit is significantly more hip then Peter Parker is thogh

Or did u forget that Parker is a Dork, who thinks The Human Spider is a better name then Spider-man, wears cloths that ask him to get beaten up, and in genral, [even in the comics] is portrayed as the biggest dork imaginable?

that's why i liked the dance scenes cause it showed even as a jack ass Parker is a Dork

[chaseter]

If I wanted to watch two 5 minute segments of a dork dancing to terrible music I would watch Dancing With the Stars. Raimi did it perfectly in SM2 with Raindrops. This one he went way overboard...over the starboard bow overboard and then into the propeller. Scratch that, there were three music dancing scenes...one was with Harry and MJ.

[Hound89]

If I wanted to watch two 5 minute segments of a dork dancing to terrible music I would watch Dancing With the Stars. Raimi did it perfectly in SM2 with Raindrops. This one he went way overboard...over the starboard bow overboard and then into the propeller. Scratch that, there were three music dancing scenes...one was with Harry and MJ.

none of them were there for the hell of it, they all moved the story froward,

but this isn't the right thread to argue about this

[chaseter]

They did not move the story forward. You can take them out and it is a better movie. There are fan edits that are one thousand times better than the actual movie. If you use that logic then the autobots urinating and farting also move the story forward in Transformers...:dry: The Twins fighting and being stupid then also move the story forward. Yet if you remove those idiotic moments, they do not change the plot and they actually improve the movie. Raimi went way overboard and so did Bay.

[Hound89]

They did not move the story forward. You can take them out and it is a better movie. There are fan edits that are one thousand times better than the actual movie. If you use that logic then the autobots urinating and farting also move the story forward in Transformers...:dry: The Twins fighting and being stupid then also move the story forward. Yet if you remove those idiotic moments, they do not change the plot and they actually improve the movie. Raimi went way overboard and so did Bay.

The twins did move the plot forward, thats how they found the cave

The Dance scene in the club was Specifically to make Mary jane jealous and to show how much of a douche peter was being

a movie with out humor is not a better movie by default ether

[chaseter]

Take the part out with the twins fighting. Sam walks in, sees a hole, Bumblebee shoots it, voila. Once again, with that logic then every single thing in every single movie ever made is crucial to the movie.

Who said humor makes a movie bad? Farts, pee, and 3 cheesy dancing scenes make a movie bad.

[Hound89]

Take the part out with the twins fighting. Sam walks in, sees a hole, Bumblebee shoots it, voila. Once again, with that logic then every single thing in every single movie ever made is crucial to the movie. sept there wasn't a hole yet, and just walking in and seeing a hole is pretty fricking boring

Who said humor makes a movie bad? Farts, pee, and 3 cheesy dancing scenes make a movie bad.

Any one who thinks the dance scenes actually hurt the movie needs to take the stick out of there ass

[chaseter]

Then the majority of critics, fans, and the GA have a stick up there. That is a lot of sticks!

[Hound89]

Then the majority of critics, fans, and the GA have a stick up there. That is a lot of sticks!
spider-man three got plenty of good reviews, with was really only the fan boys that *****ed, its rated to high and made to much money to be considered "bad"

As for TF it got panned by the critics, but again made tons of money and the Masses loved it, so you cant callt that a bad movie ether

[chaseter]

SM3 has a 63% on RT. Once again, that is mediocre. It isn't awful but it isn't good nor is it great. To have 89% for SM1 and 93% for SM2 and then suddenly drop to 63% means that the movie wasn't good...it was mediocre.

Same for Transformers that had a 57% and then dropped to 20%. Michael Bay needs to get his act together and I think he realized all of the cheesy and idiotic crap he had in the second movie should have been gone just like Sam Raimi realized he went overboard.

SM3, X3, and TF2 all made more money than they should have. The reason they made as much as they did is because they were coming off of extremely loved and highly rated previous films. That is why Wolverine made so little money, because the movie sucked and X3 was mediocre. TF3 will make a lot less money because TF2 was awful. This Spider-Man reboot will make a lot less money also because it is coming off of SM3.

[chaseter]

SM3 has a 63% on RT. Once again, that is mediocre. It isn't awful but it isn't good nor is it great. To have 89% for SM1 and 93% for SM2 and then suddenly drop to 63% means that the movie wasn't good...it was mediocre.

Same for Transformers that had a 57% and then dropped to 20%. Michael Bay needs to get his act together and I think he realized all of the cheesy and idiotic crap he had in the second movie should have been gone just like Sam Raimi realized he went overboard.

SM3, X3, and TF2 all made more money than they should have. The reason they made as much as they did is because they were coming off of extremely loved and highly rated previous films. That is why Wolverine made so little money, because the movie sucked and X3 was mediocre. TF3 will make a lot less money because TF2 was awful. This Spider-Man reboot will make a lot less money also because it is coming off of SM3.

[Hound89]

SM3 has a 63% on RT. Once again, that is mediocre. It isn't awful but it isn't good nor is it great. To have 89% for SM1 and 93% for SM2 and then suddenly drop to 63% means that the movie wasn't good...it was mediocre.

Same for Transformers that had a 57% and then dropped to 20%. Michael Bay needs to get his act together and I think he realized all of the cheesy and idiotic crap he had in the second movie should have been gone just like Sam Raimi realized he went overboard.

SM3, X3, and TF2 all made more money than they should have. The reason they made as much as they did is because they were coming off of extremely loved and highly rated previous films. That is why Wolverine made so little money, because the movie sucked and X3 was mediocre. TF3 will make a lot less money because TF2 was awful. This Spider-Man reboot will make a lot less money also because it is coming off of SM3.


TF3 will make tons of money because The Audience Loved it and its Giant Robots

i cant talk about the Reboot because its a reboot, the previous movies dont matter all that much

U think the new superman movie will tank cause returns was crap?

[SM1 doesn't deserve a 91% imo that movie was boring]

[sto_vo_kor_2000]

TF3 will make tons of money because The Audience Loved it and its Giant Robots

Do you realize your mistake here???

"Loved" means past tense.

How can it be said that the Audience "loved" a film that hasnt been released yet???

Thou I do think your prediction will be right.

[Hound89]

Do you realize your mistake here???

"Loved" means past tense.

How can it be said that the Audience "loved" a film that hasnt been released yet???

Thou I do think your prediction will be right.

when i said "loved it" was referring to revenge of the fallen my bad for not clarifying

[sto_vo_kor_2000]

when i said "loved it" was referring to revenge of the fallen my bad for not clarifying

No biggie.

[chaseter]

TF3 will make tons of money because The Audience Loved it and its Giant Robots

i cant talk about the Reboot because its a reboot, the previous movies dont matter all that much

U think the new superman movie will tank cause returns was crap?

[SM1 doesn't deserve a 91% imo that movie was boring]

It will still make tons of money. It won't however make as much as the second. Go back in here and read what I predicted this will make.

I have not once said in here that a movie will tank. Go back and read. I am saying that they will make considerably less than their previous counterparts. Wolverine made less than 20 million more than X1. Adjusted for inflation, it made less. What does that tell you? Superman Returns made 200 million domestic. That is sad for a big budget superhero movie. I see the new movie making around the same. Now if Superman Returns was an amazing movie, it would have obviously made more. Now what do you think the effect would be on the box office of the upcoming movie? This is really rather simple and straight forward.

[Ock]

The box office will recieve a used condom and 3 game tokens from chuck e cheese, officialy breaking the box office record set by the recent Twilight movie

[ChicageauxTiger]

Prediction:
Transformers 3 surprisingly does best of the 3 movies,
prompting studio to beg Bay to come back for 4th film.

[Marvin]

Prediction

380 mill domestic
900 mill world wide

and more depending on how good subsequent releases are
not all films can have the clear forcast lame summers movies like iron man tend to get.

[Marvin]

Deadline reports that Paramount's pre-cogs see TF opening with 150 over 5 days.
which means a 3 day in really low hundreds if they're lucky.

a so so number given the franchise.

Maybe the haters have been right, maybe a lot of people have been turned sour or have been told to turn sour by way of public conversation, but I'm very curious to finally see these numbers. It would be interesting if the best of the trilogy performs the worst.

I do think the marketing isn't doing anything for already jaded and a 5 day opening does nothing but diffuse your number especially if your not the sort of franchise that has people dress up and camp out side for days in advance. I think like Dark Kinght, they should have put everything they had into a 3 day weekend and let word of mouth carry out the rest of the five days. And their marketing should have been showing what's new about this installment as opposed to the bigger (clearer) but familiar spectacle.

ie a good chunk of the potential audience don't even know about the sentinel prime character voiced by nimoy, they don't know about Dylan...What they are being told is that chicago is ground zero and there's a ship of dead robots on the moon.

What I do anticipate is that word of mouth is going to be golden, for no other reason than this being better than the last as well as all the stuff the trailer didn't mention. That being said I do think Paramount is setting themselves up for a so so opening.

What I also know is that every time this trailer plays, a new convert is found, it's very grabbing and given the other june(and may) releases, this might just be the ticket the audience needs to bring them back to exciting times, especially if the 3D is zeitgeist levels of good.

I'm very curious indeed.

[OoAnd1]

390 mil domestic. Book it.

[roach]

Looks like the movie picked up some steam
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-transformers-dark-207921

Box Office Report: 'Transformers: Dark of the Moon' Lights Up the Sky with Best July 4th Opening of All Time

[Tony Stark]

Well, I'm just dumbfounded at what people will pay for at the box office. They reject an equally crappy movie in Green Lantern, yet pay through the nose to sit through this.

Here's hoping Transformers 4 comes with a new director and a reboot.

[roach]

it will......both Bay and Shia said this is their last one

[def28]

Most people who dont know Green Lantern thought the movie just looked stupid and lame by the trailers. Transformers on the other hand especially with their trailers had everyone going that looks awesome. Plus Transformers is already proven with the previous two with being accepted by audiences. Green Lantern wasnt. It was a gamble. I really think the marketing killed it for GL and then the low reviews and word of mouth confirmed people suspicions.

[roach]

I hope this movie makes all the money in the world so the haters will shut the hell up

[OoAnd1]

Well, I'm just dumbfounded at what people will pay for at the box office. They reject an equally crappy movie in Green Lantern, yet pay through the nose to sit through this.

Here's hoping Transformers 4 comes with a new director and a reboot.

I didn't go watch Green Lantern because it's more of the same. Another damn Superhero film. The average movie-goer can only see so many of these films a year.. and you have to be special to make the cut.

On the other hand, Transformers is a very unique experience. There aren't too many 25-foot robots fighting on screen and then transforming into vehicles.. flawlessly.

Obviously the general audience agrees with me on both points.

[roach]

I saw both and was entertained by TF3....Green Lantern could have used another draft on the script

[OoAnd1]

I hope this movie makes all the money in the world so the haters will shut the hell up

Well I hope it makes a lot of money so Paramount is forced to make a TF4.

We're going to get a Bay-less and Shia-less Transformers movie regardless. But I'd prefer it be in the same continuity as the first 3. Even if it's completely different in every other way.

[roach]

Oh there will be a TF4

[Liam_H]

I hope this movie makes all the money in the world so the haters will shut the hell up

I'm not sure what your point is, BO is never an indication of the quality of a film. Everyone already knew this was gonna make a sizeable amount of money, regardless of how good it is.

[roach]

to further showcase the disconnect between the reviewers and the General Audience

[Liam_H]

Domestically I don't see DOTM making as much as ROTF, could be wrong but I don't see it happening.

[def28]

416 million worldwide in its first week. 181 Domestic. Bring on Transformers 4!

[Ajendo]

416 million worldwide in its first week. 181 Domestic. Bring on Transformers 4!

That's crazy!

[Tony Stark]

I'm not sure what your point is, BO is never an indication of the quality of a film. Everyone already knew this was gonna make a sizeable amount of money, regardless of how good it is.

Very true, and while this one had a huge jump start, I expect a 60-65% dropoff to week 2.

[chaseter]

But a 60% dropoff from $181 is still big cash. It's second weekend it will still be making more than most of the films this summer opened with.

[Zant]

looks like another billion dollar movie.That will make 3 this year,not bad

[Hotwire]

416 million worldwide in its first week. 181 Domestic. Bring on Transformers 4!

I'm certain there are meetings being held between Hasbro and Paramount as we speak. And they start with, "To Hell with Bay and Shia, we can find someone else."

[chaseter]

I bet they offer Bay and Shia a deal in which they won't refuse. If they do, then I will be shocked. The next movie may take 3 years instead of 2 but I bet Bay and Shia come back. I will be wholly shocked if they don't.

[dark_b]

the paycheck got Bay to make a 3D movie when he didnt care about 3D in 2009. so if money can get Bay to make a a movie with a DIGITAL camera then i think they can pay him to direct the fourth movie. but i hope that Paramount understands that a cheaper director would be the best for the fourth movie. i think you can not have worse editing then in TF3 and TF2. so a cheaper director would be the best for teh fans and Paramount.

[chaseter]

Neil Blomkamp for TF4.

[OoAnd1]

Neil Blomkamp for TF4.

Imagine what he could do with a 200 million dollar budget! But I think Blomkamp wants to "create" his own movie-verses.

Jon Favreau, tho, isn't a bad choice to continue the series. His IronMan movies had a similar tone/look to the Transformers trilogy.

[Nathan]

I really hope they go with a new director. I'd like to watch a non-action scene without going "WTF?" the entire time.

[dark_b]

I'd like to watch a non-action scene without going "WTF?" the entire time.there was a point in the battle where a human is falling down. and Bay goes from the soldier to a slow motion shot of a chair falling next to Shockwave. WTF was created for this movie. the battle editing and narrative is the definition of WTF.

[OoAnd1]

there was a point in the battle where a human is falling down. and Bay goes from the soldier to a slow motion shot of a chair falling next to Shockwave. WTF was created for this movie. the battle editing and narrative is the definition of WTF.

What was WTF about that? Did you want to see the guy go splat in a PG-13 movie?

The point was that Shockwave noticed there that soldiers were in the building.

[dark_b]

What was WTF about that? Did you want to see the guy go splat in a PG-13 movie?

The point was that Shockwave noticed there that soldiers were in the building.
Bay is that you? a slow motion shot of a chair ? thats the shot you cut from the soldier?

dear lord.

[OoAnd1]

Bay is that you? a slow motion shot of a chair ? thats the shot you cut from the soldier?

dear lord.

Haha, no. But it wasn't a cut if I remember correctly. It was one shot following the soldier then before he falls the camera turns away from him going splat and focuses at the rest of the debris that falls.

And it turned into slow-motion to illustrate Shockwave's acknowledgement of the soldiers.

[Liam_H]

But a 60% dropoff from $181 is still big cash. It's second weekend it will still be making more than most of the films this summer opened with.

He meant 60% drop from 3-Day weekend. That $181 million is from 6 days. While I don't think its gonna drop that much because there is no comp for its audience next week. I see it coming in around $50 million during its 2nd week.

[OoAnd1]

He meant 60% drop from 3-Day weekend. That $181 million is from 6 days. While I don't think its gonna drop that much because there is no comp for its audience next week. I see it coming in around $50 million during its 2nd week.

Even so, a 60% drop from 3-Day weekend will also be connected to a 60% drop for it's 2nd full week. If it made 180 week 1, it should make about 100 million in week 2.

Totaling, 280 million by the end of week 2.

[Liam_H]

Even so, a 60% drop from 3-Day weekend will also be connected to a 60% drop for it's 2nd full week. If it made 180 week 1, it should make about 100 million in week 2.

Totaling, 280 million by the end of week 2.

Maybe but its entire 2nd week will not have the great scheduling of the first week opening on Wednesday, so that slightly inflates its numbers. But there is no competition for this movie during the 2nd weekend so that'll balance it out.

[OoAnd1]

Maybe but its entire 2nd week will not have the great scheduling of the first week opening on Wednesday, so that slightly inflates its numbers. But there is no competition for this movie during the 2nd weekend so that'll balance it out.

Yea, by the end of this weekend (12 days), it should take over the number 1 spot at the box office for the entire year.

That's significant. People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it.

[Liam_H]

Yea, by the end of this weekend (12 days), it should take over the number 1 spot at the box office for the entire year.

That's significant. People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it.

LOL, I'm gonna have to stop agreeing with you there. Besides a few set pieces that were fun to watch in 3D, this was not a good movie. I personally would not recommend it to most of the people I know. Much better options in the theater right now.

[MistaBinks]

I don't know if it has been discussed in this thread already but TF3D reportedly cost 5 million dollars less to make than Green Lantern. Say what you want about Bay but he gets far more out his budget dollars than any other director.

[OoAnd1]

LOL, I'm gonna have to stop agreeing with you there. Besides a few set pieces that were fun to watch in 3D, this was not a good movie. I personally would not recommend it to most of the people I know. Much better options in the theater right now.

But come on, which other movies? Another friends-comedy (Hangover, Bridesmaids, Hall Pass), or rom-com (Just Go With It, No Strings) or superhero movie (Thor, Green Lantern, X-Men) or another family-CGI film (Rio, Rango, Cars)?

The only real successful movies this year have been sequels, it's just a matter of people in line asking "Eh, how about that other Fast/Furious movie, or Pirates movie or Hangover movie?"

Transformers is the only movie this year that has made the masses plan to go to the theaters just to watch it. Robots fighting hasn't been played-out yet. It's an experience, not a movie.

[OoAnd1]

I don't know if it has been discussed in this thread already but TF3D reportedly cost 5 million dollars less to make than Green Lantern. Say what you want about Bay but he gets far more out his budget dollars than any other director.

True. But District 9 looked like an efficient-150 million dollar movie. And it cost just a quarter of that. Blomkamp gets the award here.

[Liam_H]

But come on, which other movies? Another friends-comedy (Hangover, Bridesmaids, Hall Pass), or rom-com (Just Go With It, No Strings) or superhero movie (Thor, Green Lantern, X-Men) or another family-CGI film (Rio, Rango, Cars)?

The only real successful movies this year have been sequels, it's just a matter of people in line asking "Eh, how about that other Fast/Furious movie, or Pirates movie or Hangover movie?"

Transformers is the only movie this year that has made the masses plan to go to the theaters just to watch it. Robots fighting hasn't been played-out yet. It's an experience, not a movie.

In terms of what has been released this summer: Thor, First Class, Bridesmaids, Kung-Fu Panda 2, Super 8(despite a good amount of flaws) are far better movies overall. For the smaller movies, Midnight in Paris is a great choice too.

Disagree heavily that Transformers is an experience. All this movie has to offer is robots fighting as you say, nothing else of substance. If you don't see this movie you are not missing out on anything. Avatar despite its heavy flaws was more of an experience. In a few years this movie/trilogy will just be any other regular blockbuster. I'm glad I only paid $10 for my ticket(3D).

[OoAnd1]

In terms of what has been released this summer: Thor, First Class, Bridesmaids, Kung-Fu Panda 2, Super 8(despite a good amount of flaws) are far better movies overall. For the smaller movies, Midnight in Paris is a great choice too.

Disagree heavily that Transformers is an experience. All this movie has to offer is robots fighting as you say, nothing else of substance. If you don't see this movie you are not missing out on anything. Avatar despite its heavy flaws was more of an experience. In a few years this movie/trilogy will just be any other regular blockbuster. I'm glad I only paid $10 for my ticket(3D).

It's an experience because it's still a unique spectacle to watch. And there is some heart in these movies.. many people I've talked to admitted to tearing up in a few scenes.

I saw First Class and loved it, but it's "X-Men 5" and "Superhero Movie 34", Thor being "Superhero Movie 35", it's hard to argue those are movies people will rush to see. And the BO proved that.

Like I said, "People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it."

I'm not sure how you disagreed with that.

[Liam_H]

It's an experience because it's still a unique spectacle to watch. And there is some heart in these movies.. many people I've talked to admitted to tearing up in a few scenes.

I saw First Class and loved it, but it's "X-Men 5" and "Superhero Movie 34", Thor being "Superhero Movie 35", it's hard to argue those are movies people will rush to see. And the BO proved that.

Like I said, "People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it."

I'm not sure how you disagreed with that.

We'll have to disagree that this movie was unique spectacle because to me it is not. If a person does not see it then it's not a big deal, IMO. Avatar is the only movie in recent memory that even comes close to what you call an experience, its advancement in FX, 3D, motion capture etc. was the reason to see it. Evident by the astounding legs that it had, impressive considering the type of BO we have today.

[OoAnd1]

We'll have to disagree that this movie was unique spectacle because to me it is not. If a person does not see it then it's not a big deal, IMO. Avatar is the only movie in recent memory that even comes close to what you call an experience, its advancement in FX, 3D, motion capture etc. was the reason to see it. Evident by the astounding legs that it had, impressive considering the type of BO we have today.

Haha, okay. But not a good movie, not an experience, and not even a unique spectacle? I'm just trying to label that which allows this movie to become number 1 of the year in just 12 days.

Maybe people simply gravitate towards fighting robots? TF1-3, IronMan1,2 all made 300+ million. If Real Steel reaches 300... they'll green-light Voltron this year!

[Liam_H]

Haha, okay. But not a good movie, not an experience, and not even a unique spectacle? I'm just trying to label that which allows this movie to become number 1 of the year in just 12 days.

Maybe people simply gravitate towards fighting robots? TF1-3, IronMan1,2 all made 300+ million. If Real Steel reaches 300... they'll green-light Voltron this year!

As I said earlier, I simply see it as a movie with decent set pieces enhanced by 3D. Yes this movie will be #1 domestically by the end of the week but I believe HP7.2 will give it some competition.

[OoAnd1]

As I said earlier, I simply see it as a movie with decent set pieces enhanced by 3D. Yes this movie will be #1 domestically by the end of the week but I believe HP7.2 will give it some competition.

I gotta say you're wrong there. Having "decent set pieces enhanced by 3D" is not responsible for an inevitable 300+ million dollar box office. Battle LA had, truly, decent set pieces and it barely reached 80 million total, and 3D would have not made up much more.

There's so much more to this film/franchise that you're not giving credit to.

[Liam_H]

I gotta say you're wrong there. Having "decent set pieces enhanced by 3D" is not responsible for an inevitable 300+ million dollar box office. Battle LA had, truly, decent set pieces and it barely reached 80 million total, and 3D would have not made up much more.

There's so much more to this film/franchise that you're not giving credit to.

Like many people the best movie in this franchise was the first one and it was an enjoyable summer movie. There were many flaws but I was able to overlook them. To me if I never saw DOTM again I'd be completely fine. These last two movies are just FX nothing else interesting to go back and visit. Seeing how we can create these giant robots makes me sad that its wasted on such a poor story. I don't really see what else these films have to offer besides giant robots battling each other.

Box Office is not indicative of the quality of a film. Twilight franchise makes tons of money but its films are not good. The last three pirates movies are mediocre at best but they still gross a ton.

[OoAnd1]

Like many people the best movie in this franchise was the first one and it was an enjoyable summer movie. There were many flaws but I was able to overlook them. To me if I never saw DOTM again I'd be completely fine. These last two movies are just FX nothing else interesting to go back and visit. Seeing how we can create these giant robots makes me sad that its wasted on such a poor story. I don't really see what else these films have to offer besides giant robots battling each other.

Box Office is not indicative of the quality of a film. Twilight franchise makes tons of money but its films are not good. The last three pirates movies are mediocre at best but they still gross a ton.

Not quality of art, but quality of enjoyment. No one goes to the movies to have a bad time.

People REALLY enjoy Transformers 3. It's understood now that you didn't like it.. continuing with your example, I saw Twilight 1, 2 and stopped there.

I still give Twilight credit, people rush to see those movies over almost everything else. I wont be.. but I still understand there's much more to those movies than what it is I see.

[Liam_H]

Not quality of art, but quality of enjoyment. No one goes to the movies to have a bad time.

People REALLY enjoy Transformers 3. It's understood now that you didn't like it.. continuing with your example, I saw Twilight 1, 2 and stopped there.

I still give Twilight credit, people rush to see those movies over almost everything else. I wont be.. but I still understand there's much more to those movies than what it is I see.

Well going back all the way to the beginning of this debate; I believe there is far more enjoyment to be had at other movies this summer. Will it have as much spectacle? No, because you can do much more with giant robots. But it seems you find far more enjoyment out of these movies than I ever will.

Also the only thing Twilight really offers, is a Harlequin romance for the female fantasy. I actually read the books to see what the big deal was. Nothing, the message those books send are deplorable. Subsequently the films aren't any better. Transformers at least doesn't send such terrible messages out.

[OoAnd1]

Well going back all the way to the beginning of this debate; I believe there is far more enjoyment to be had at other movies this summer. Will it have as much spectacle? No, because you can do much more with giant robots. But it seems you find far more enjoyment out of these movies than I ever will.

Also the only thing Twilight really offers, is a Harlequin romance for the female fantasy. I actually read the books to see what the big deal was. Nothing, the message those books send are deplorable. Subsequently the films aren't any better. Transformers at least doesn't send such terrible messages out.

Fair enough.

[warhorse78]

My question is, since The Green Lantern bombed, and Transformers is Paramount's golden boy, you think their next endeavor they could just give Transformers 4 a 300 to 400 million dollar budget, to at least include decent Transformers time, and maybe entice some good quality writers?

[Marvin]

My question is, since TF3 is making a ridiculous amount of money after coming off of 2 of the worst films ever made, how come people say Xmen first class only suffered because it came off bad sequels?

fastest film ever to hit half a million here we come.

[roach]

I wouldnt call TF and TF2 the worst films ever made

[Marvin]

I wouldnt call TF and TF2 the worst films ever made

some would,
some do,
some will.

[S.A.A.D.]

Domestic=$228,895,000 (estimate)
Foreign=$297,084,874

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=transformers3.htm

[roach]

some would,
some do,
some will.

some wouldnt
some dont
some wont:woot:

[Tony Stark]

I wouldnt call TF and TF2 the worst films ever made

The first one? no, the second one? well it's definitely in the top 5 or bottom 5 depending on how you look at it.

[Tony Stark]

I would say all of these movies are the worst financially successful films ever made. Usually crappy films don't make money, but these movies are like crack cocaine, it's bad for you, but once you've tried it you can't stop yourself from wanting more.

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think a better analogy would be crystal meth, same target demographic.

[The Caped Knight]

Once again The Transformers are making a serious killing at the box office despite the critics reviews .

TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON REACHES $645 MILLION WORLDWIDE

ComingSoon.net has posted the weekend box office estimates. You can read their update on Transformers: Dark of the Moon below:

Michael Bay's Transformers: Dark of the Moon continued its worldwide box office domination this weekend, adding another $47 million domestically and $93 million overseas. In North America, the Paramount Pictures release has earned $261 million and internationally it is up to $384 million, for a massive worldwide total of $645 million after less than two weeks in theaters. The sequel, which cost a reported $195 million to make, has passed up The Hangover Part II ($250.8 million) to become the top grossing domestic film so far this year.

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/167803-transformers-dark-of-the-moon-reaches-645-million-worldwide

[Weadazoid]

um............ it's a spectacle of a movie....... the story as always is sub par, though less disjointed then RotF but not as good as the Original.

[OoAnd1]

My question is, since TF3 is making a ridiculous amount of money after coming off of 2 of the worst films ever made, how come people say Xmen first class only suffered because it came off bad sequels?

fastest film ever to hit half a million here we come.

I enjoyed X3, Wolverine, TF1 and TF2. When it comes to fantasy films, I don't have very high standards.

Regardless, the X-Men franchise is very different from the Transformers one. X-Men is part of a very crowded movie-genre-- Superheros.

Transformers is its own beast. They don't have Voltron or Gundam movies competing with them.

[UltimateJustin]

Once again The Transformers are making a serious killing at the box office despite the critics reviews .

TRANSFORMERS: DARK OF THE MOON REACHES $645 MILLION WORLDWIDE

ComingSoon.net has posted the weekend box office estimates. You can read their update on Transformers: Dark of the Moon below:

Michael Bay's Transformers: Dark of the Moon continued its worldwide box office domination this weekend, adding another $47 million domestically and $93 million overseas. In North America, the Paramount Pictures release has earned $261 million and internationally it is up to $384 million, for a massive worldwide total of $645 million after less than two weeks in theaters. The sequel, which cost a reported $195 million to make, has passed up The Hangover Part II ($250.8 million) to become the top grossing domestic film so far this year.

http://www.superherohype.com/news/articles/167803-transformers-dark-of-the-moon-reaches-645-million-worldwide
Good... goood.

[Raiden]

The first one? no, the second one? well it's definitely in the top 5 or bottom 5 depending on how you look at it.

The first TF movie actually good and I even purchased its DVD and probably watched it several times. But the second one can burn in cinema hell along with other turds like Batman & Robin, Speed 2, and The Happening.

[Quasimod0]

I hate to say it but anthony anderson was my favorite part of the first one. Honestly, they shouldve kept the blonde australian smart girl for the other movies. She was the best female. And actually did something

[OoAnd1]

390 mil domestic. Book it.

At 327. Feels like it slowed. At this point it'd be lucky to reach 350.

Either way, even with inflation in mind, it's going to be about equal to TF1-- so you can't really say it's lost any fans since the first one. That's always great for a franchise.

[Marvin]

Just read this is the franchise high grosser...excellent.
Who know it would still make money after the "the most anticipated film of the past few years" opened up after it and stole all the buzz and now it's competing with a film designed for it's audience from it's own studio.

370 will probably be the resting spot.
And it will enter the 1billion club this year.

Openings usually speak for how people felt about the last film and I think it made it's point concerning the sour taste left last time. Legs speak for word of mouth and repeat viewing and it looks like it's one of the highest grossers this year.
congrads.

It's actually on the same pace as ROTF, but with a slower start so it's lagging by 25 or so.