The Official Captain America Box Office Thread! - Part 1

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This is a continuation thread, the old thread is 335443

[Wally West]

Obviously the cast isn't in place yet and we have limited information about the film at this point, so it's difficult to speculate how well the film might preform at the box office.

Having said that however, I can't help but wonder how successful a Captain America film will be outside the U.S

I would say that one thing the film has going for it in terms of world wide accessibility is that it's a period piece set mostly in WWII. At that point in history America was reluctant to enter into wars overseas, and did not enter the war until after the bombing of pearl harbor. I think it is considerably easier to portray America as a country who was in the right at that time, and that much of the world would probably agree.

Alot has changed over the years and America is certainly not the most popular country in many parts of the world today. So I would assume CA is not nearly as popular in many countries as other superheros.

When you consider that most american blockbusters count on the foriegn box office take for a considerable portion of the films overall gross, how much concern do you think there is that the film may not preform well outside of the U.S.?

[BigThor]

I'm kind of tired of the pissing contests; I really don't care how high Captain America box office is as long as it's enough for Marvel to Green Light Captain America 2.

I agree :woot:

[CaptainStacy]

When does Cap come out overseas?

[RedSkull]

I hope it does well, though I wont be too bummed if it doesnt...maybe Red Skull will bring it some german appeal

[Paladin-Hoss]

@ cap Stacy

Around the same time as in US.I have to say though, the whole 'Cap might not do well outside of the US, because of how the world sees US' thing might not be as bad as some people may think.

IMO you have to be reeeally 'strange' if you think that watching a movie called captain America is offensive to you.

[CaptainStacy]

@ cap Stacy

Around the same time as in US.

Well it's been out here for three days now...

[terry78]

@ cap Stacy

Around the same time as in US.I have to say though, the whole 'Cap might not do well outside of the US, because of how the world sees US' thing might not be as bad as some people may think.

IMO you have to be reeeally 'strange' if you think that watching a movie called captain America is offensive to you.

Then there are a lot of reeeally strange people on the planet then.

[Moridin]

When does Cap come out overseas?

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0458339/releaseinfo

[Whiskey Tango]

There have been questions about how Captain America will perform overseas, because of its title and bent. If the film’s opening in Italy over the weekend is any indication, the movie appears to be on solid footing.

Captain America opened to $2.8 million in Italy, 16% ahead of the first Iron Man, but slightly behind Thor.

“It played like a big tentpole in Italy, suggesting there won’t be much push back overseas,” Moore said.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-captain-america-214766

[wobbly]

When does Cap come out overseas?

Next Friday here in the UK.

[Golgo-13]

Box Office Mojo has cap at around 66 million here in the US.

[Paladin-Hoss]

Then there are a lot of reeeally strange people on the planet then.

You one of them?:oldrazz:

Anyway. i think those kind of people would stay away from pop corn/ summer block buster movies in general... so the movie will do just fine.

@ cap Stacy

It opens here in the netherland in three days.

[Liam_H]

A lot of international release dates are a week or two after the US to avoid some competition from Potter, since that has such a huge appeal overseas.

[co2]

$65.8 million!
Cap pulls ever so slightly ahead of Thor to become the U.S. comic book movie champ for 2011! Woohoo!
That makes me pretty pleased

[Marvel]

$65.8 million!
Cap pulls ever so slightly ahead of Thor to become the U.S. comic book movie champ for 2011! Woohoo!
That makes me pretty pleased

Those aren't actuals. It could be less or more but we'll know the official numbers on Monday.

[Spider-Fan]

The actuals won't be too far off. Cap's gross will give or take MAYBE .5 mil from that estimate. The actuals are usually close.

[ultimatefan]

I´m from Brazil. We tend to frown a little upon American flaggs and stuff like that in movies, but I think that if people perceive the movie as an exciting adventure they´ll overlook the americana element. Superman is largely associated with americana too, and the Donner/Lester movies were very popular overseas, even SR actually did better OS than BB.

[Marvin]

A lot of international release dates are a week or two after the US to avoid some competition from Potter, since that has such a huge appeal overseas.

Hard to get huge ww opening numbers like potter when you stagger your release in such a way.

$65.8 million!
Cap pulls ever so slightly ahead of Thor to become the U.S. comic book movie champ for 2011! Woohoo!
That makes me pretty pleased

I'd rather it get a higher total than opening to be honest.
at least before I give it such a title.

[Liam_H]

Hard to get huge ww opening numbers like potter when you stagger your release in such a way.




Well yeah Marvel/Paramount knew this when they staggered it but they also knew Potter would still be huge overseas during its 2nd week.

[BigThor]

I'd rather it get a higher total than opening to be honest.
at least before I give it such a title.

Yep, and that's definately not going to happen if your going by the worldwide gross (which you should).

[Spider-Fan]

Yep, and that's defiantely not going to happen if your going by the worldwide gross (which you should).

To be fair, time will tell on that one. I don't see why we have to have a Thor vs Cap debate, though. They share the same universe, and both being successes can only build for a better MCU post-Avengers. I understand we have our preferred character, but I didn't want Cap to open like it did just to beat Thor...I wanted it to make as much money as possible so we can get Cap 2 announced very soon (like Thor 2 was)!

Cap can finish behind Thor...it can outgross. I only care about getting a sequel and enjoying future Cap and Thor films.

[BigThor]

To be fair, time will tell on that one. I don't see why we have to have a Thor vs Cap debate, though. They share the same universe, and both being successes can only build for a better MCU post-Avengers. I understand we have our preferred character, but I didn't want Cap to open like it did just to beat Thor...I wanted it to make as much money as possible so we can get Cap 2 announced very soon (like Thor 2 was)!

Cap can finish behind Thor...it can outgross. I only care about getting a sequel and enjoying future Cap and Thor films.

I didn't start the debate and I'm not saying which one I "want" to do better I'm just saying Cap always had a better chance in the US than overseas.

[04nbod]

Obviously the cast isn't in place yet and we have limited information about the film at this point, so it's difficult to speculate how well the film might preform at the box office.

Having said that however, I can't help but wonder how successful a Captain America film will be outside the U.S

I would say that one thing the film has going for it in terms of world wide accessibility is that it's a period piece set mostly in WWII. At that point in history America was reluctant to enter into wars overseas, and did not enter the war until after the bombing of pearl harbor. I think it is considerably easier to portray America as a country who was in the right at that time, and that much of the world would probably agree.

Alot has changed over the years and America is certainly not the most popular country in many parts of the world today. So I would assume CA is not nearly as popular in many countries as other superheros.

When you consider that most american blockbusters count on the foriegn box office take for a considerable portion of the films overall gross, how much concern do you think there is that the film may not preform well outside of the U.S.?

erm...no it wasn't. Its isolation prolonged the conflict and if they had been involved earlier they could have prevented the scale of the atrocity.

@ cap Stacy

Around the same time as in US.I have to say though, the whole 'Cap might not do well outside of the US, because of how the world sees US' thing might not be as bad as some people may think.


IMO you have to be reeeally 'strange' if you think that watching a movie called captain America is offensive to you.

I think the bigger obstacle is 'Its Captain America, why should I care? Call me when its Captain Britain/Captain France/Captain Italy'

From BOM
While Captain America: The First Avenger (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=captainamerica.htm) held the top spot at the domestic box office this weekend, its only foreign debut was a respectable $2.8 million in Italy. That's up 16 percent from the first Iron Man (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=ironman.htm) but way off from Thor (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=thor.htm)'s $5.6 million. Captain expands in to 23 markets next weekend, including the U.K., Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Australia and South Korea.

[Dr. Sid Jawtug]

Hey Potter!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSet6htnVcQ

[NCXlightning]

I said ---> Lets break it down base 50 mil +10 for Avengers +5 theater activity due in part to HP, +3 added hype from other sources = 68 mil opening <----

opening estimates from BOM = Worldwide: $68,627,000

i'm feeling good folks feeling good :)

[Chewy]

There have been questions about how Captain America will perform overseas, because of its title and bent. If the film’s opening in Italy over the weekend is any indication, the movie appears to be on solid footing.

Captain America opened to $2.8 million in Italy, 16% ahead of the first Iron Man, but slightly behind Thor.

“It played like a big tentpole in Italy, suggesting there won’t be much push back overseas,” Moore said.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-captain-america-214766Good. Good.

[terry78]

Italy knows who got swag.

[CaptainCraig]

erm...no it wasn't. Its isolation prolonged the conflict and if they had been involved earlier they could have prevented the scale of the atrocity.
Whatever Mr. I Hate America
The world and it's America haters can't have it both ways.
We get proactive and preemptive and that's suddenly wrong also. :whatever:
Next 2-bit dictator wants to start crap somewhere I say let it be. I'm over trying to please the haters.


As for Captain America I'm glad it did well, not cause America is in the title, cause it was a well crafted movie. If it were a good Alpha Flight movie I'd be there. I just like it when movies I like, and are comic in nature, are embraced by the movie going public.

[hatebox]

Whatever Mr. I Hate America
The world and it's America haters can't have it both ways.
We get proactive and preemptive and that's suddenly wrong also. :whatever:


Well, Iraq was a stupid war, everyone knows that. The US also entered WW2 for selfish reasons, but the Allies wouldn't have cared about motives at the time, they were just happy to have them onside.

On topic, I do think this whole anti-American sentiment is exaggerated as far as Cap's international numbers go. The real issue is whether other countries can be bothered for the 4th superhero film of the summer. Reviews have been ok, but nothing to suggest it's a must-see, so the figures will be interesting.

[KangConquers]

I´m from Brazil. We tend to frown a little upon American flaggs and stuff like that in movies, but I think that if people perceive the movie as an exciting adventure they´ll overlook the americana element. Superman is largely associated with americana too, and the Donner/Lester movies were very popular overseas, even SR actually did better OS than BB.


Here's another thing people forget about. Your whole country doesn't have to go see it for it to be a hit; Brazil has a population of about 200 Million people, and Thor did $17 M there; I don't know how much ticket prices are in Brazil relative to the USD, but I think it's safe to say that no more than 2% of Brazil's population saw Thor.

So Cap doesn't need to win over everyone...he just needs to win over 1-3 in 100 people to be a success. When you look at it that way, Cap hitting a high WW total isn't impossible, given this is a character that has sold comic books in several countries.

So 98% of people can still have their "**** america" reaction, and this film can still be a success.

[Tony Stark]

I don't understand the whole anti-American thing, especially from people in the UK and such. Was there a single American represented in Harry Potter? Yet that did gangbuster business here. And how many Americans love James Bond?

[CaptainCraig]

I don't understand the whole anti-American thing, especially from people in the UK and such. Was there a single American represented in Harry Potter? Yet that did gangbuster business here. And how many Americans love James Bond?
...and Sherlock Holmes, Robin Hood or Doctor Who.

[Flemm]

I don't understand the whole anti-American thing, especially from people in the UK and such. Was there a single American represented in Harry Potter? Yet that did gangbuster business here. And how many Americans love James Bond?

I don't think it's really an issue of anti-american sentiment, but possibly just a relative lack of interest in a patriotic american hero that is not especially well-known. It's not as if everybody's default position is to pay money to see the movie. The audience has to feel motivated, so Captain America might just not have the draw elsewhere that he potentially has in the States. That said, I think the movie will do just fine overseas, perhaps not spectacularly well, but it should do ok.

[Bubonic]

I don't understand the whole anti-American thing, especially from people in the UK and such. Was there a single American represented in Harry Potter? Yet that did gangbuster business here. And how many Americans love James Bond?

Despite popular American belief, the rest of the world doesn't love it.
It's one of the downfalls of being the arrogant dominant world power, so any movie that might come off as being overly patriotic might irk some foreign viewers. But this isn't nearly as bad as the handful of movies where Americans took foreign war victories and made them their own.

Back to box office talk, I'm a bit worried. The movie opened up decently, but this weekend it'll have Cowboys and Aliens and the Smurfs to contend with. I'm starting to think this movie might not make more than 200 million if it is lucky.

[MessiahDecoy123]

I dunno about the anti-American sentiment hurting CA. If there was a movie called Captain China, I'd watch it if it had cool kung fu. :awesome:

[Spider-Fan]

Despite popular American belief, the rest of the world doesn't love it.
It's one of the downfalls of being the arrogant dominant world power, so any movie that might come off as being overly patriotic might irk some foreign viewers. But this isn't nearly as bad as the handful of movies where Americans took foreign war victories and made them their own.

Back to box office talk, I'm a bit worried. The movie opened up decently, but this weekend it'll have Cowboys and Aliens and the Smurfs to contend with. I'm starting to think this movie might not make more than 200 million if it is lucky.

C&A won't be that high a grosser. It will make 40 mil tops. Also, Smurfs has a different demographic.

[Spideyfan93]

I refuse to judge B.O. predictions because something tells me C&A will do better than expected if the overall consensus critically is good.

And Smurfs is a kid's comedy...it will do numbers the first weekend. These type of films always do.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Yogi Bear didn't get Chipmunk money. I don't think Smurfs will either.

[Spider-Fan]

Smurfs is for little kids. It can make money and not effect Cap. Different age group. As for C&A...it looks like it will get a mixed reception. I don't see it doing that well.

[Bubonic]

I just thought some people who might of considered taking their kids to cap, god hate them, will instead decide to bring them to the smurfs.

[Jennn]

C&A is going be a bigger hurdle to overcome than Smurfs I would think.

[Jennn]

Cap made $65.1 not $65.8. So it didn't beat Thor in the opening day box office showdown. lol I'm sure that will start some unnecessary debate.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/07/captain-america-thor.html


Still, I think that's solid. If Cap can mirror Thor's box office trajectory, fine by me. It doesn't need the biggest box office it needs to make enough for a sequel imo. That's all I really care about. ;)

[Jordanstine]

Cap made $65.1 not $65.8. So it didn't beat Thor in the opening day box office showdown. lol I'm sure that will start some unnecessary debate.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/07/captain-america-thor.html


Still, I think that's solid. If Cap can mirror Thor's box office trajectory, fine by me. It doesn't need the biggest box office it needs to make enough for a sequel imo. That's all I really care about. ;)
3D Ticket sales could be a good indicator why it didn't bring in more $$$.

Read somewhere that Cap only had 30% of it's shares in 3D, while Thor was something around 40%...

But at the same time, it somewhat could indicate that a lot more people actually saw Cap since it still brought in $65.1M despite a lower 3D count with the 2D making most of the revenue.

[Spider-Fan]

Cap had 40% roughly in 3D ticket sales...Thor had 60% in 3D. Thor also had IMAX, which Cap does not.

[Jordanstine]

Cap had 40% roughly in 3D ticket sales...Thor had 60% in 3D. Thor also had IMAX, which Cap does not.
Wow, even bigger discrepancy than I thought! That actually shows that more people might have indeed seen Cap, just that they didn't pay the premium for 3D nor IMAX.

I was surprised why Cap didn't get the IMAX treatment... my 2 theaters had Harry Potter playing in both IMAX screens.

[Bubonic]

Well... At least we'll see him in the Avengers again.
I'd be sad if that was it for Cap.

[Jennn]

I'm still glad all those "Biggest Superhero of the Summer" articles were written yesterday. lol even if it's not true (or possibly, not true YET) that's good press.

[Spider-Fan]

Wow, even bigger discrepancy than I thought! That actually shows that more people might have indeed seen Cap, just that they didn't pay the premium for 3D nor IMAX.

I was surprised why Cap didn't get the IMAX treatment... my 2 theaters had Harry Potter playing in both IMAX screens.

I was surpised too, but Potter's IMAX push was def more warranted than Cap's. But, the article I read yesterday said at the 65.8 prediction, Cap's ticket sales were up 9% from Thor's, so Cap even with the 65.1 actual would have sold more tickets.

I'm still glad all those "Biggest Superhero of the Summer" articles were written yesterday. lol even if it's not true (or possibly, not true YET) that's good press.

It sold more tickets, so still kind of true, LOL.

Well... At least we'll see him in the Avengers again.
I'd be sad if that was it for Cap.

I think we'll be getting a Cap sequel announcement fairly soon.

[flickchick85]

Cap made $65.1 not $65.8. So it didn't beat Thor in the opening day box office showdown. lol I'm sure that will start some unnecessary debate.

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2011/07/captain-america-thor.html


Still, I think that's solid. If Cap can mirror Thor's box office trajectory, fine by me. It doesn't need the biggest box office it needs to make enough for a sequel imo. That's all I really care about. ;)
Ditto. It seems like win/win for both, too, because as Box Office Mojo noted, Cap had higher attendance than Thor. So Thor can claim the opening weekend box office crown, and Cap can claim the opening weekend attendance crown - either way, Marvel Studios wins this superhero summer.

I hope Cap does well overseas. I really want my Cap sequel sooner rather than later.

[Hurm...]

Cap! Shut up and take my money!!

[ultimatefan]

Here's another thing people forget about. Your whole country doesn't have to go see it for it to be a hit; Brazil has a population of about 200 Million people, and Thor did $17 M there; I don't know how much ticket prices are in Brazil relative to the USD, but I think it's safe to say that no more than 2% of Brazil's population saw Thor.

So Cap doesn't need to win over everyone...he just needs to win over 1-3 in 100 people to be a success. When you look at it that way, Cap hitting a high WW total isn't impossible, given this is a character that has sold comic books in several countries.

So 98% of people can still have their "**** america" reaction, and this film can still be a success.

Yeah, it´s a very small amount of the overall population, and the movie was still very successful for our standards.

Anyway, let´s not turn this into a "why the world hates America" argument. That´s a complicated and delicate political debate and this is not the place for this.

I agree that it might be more of an issue of people not feeling all that motivated to see a movie whose character is so directly associated with American patriotism. But, like I said, if people think the movie´s good, they´ll see it. Steve Rogers has a compelling story of an underdog, skinny kid turned hero, and that´s a story people all over the world can relate to and enjoy.

Cap also has some advantages. Kids are out of school now, and competition next weekend looks weak. Cowboys And Aliens could be cool, but it´s not based on a well-known property and the premise may be a little tough to swallow. Smurfs is more of a kids movie, and frankly it looks awful.

[Flemm]

Ditto. It seems like win/win for both, too, because as Box Office Mojo noted, Cap had higher attendance than Thor. So Thor can claim the opening weekend box office crown, and Cap can claim the opening weekend attendance crown - either way, Marvel Studios wins this superhero summer.

Agreed. Cap and Thor are literally on the same team, so it's win/win. Personally, I'd like to see Cap overtake Thor domestically (it seems only fitting), with Thor retaining the worldwide crown for superheroes this summer. But regardless of the details, Marvel studios and its fans are the winners here. Avengers is set up beautifully. Now that movie has to raise the bar. No pressure, Whedon, no pressure :cwink:

[BigThor]

Ditto. It seems like win/win for both, too, because as Box Office Mojo noted, Cap had higher attendance than Thor. So Thor can claim the opening weekend box office crown, and Cap can claim the opening weekend attendance crown - either way, Marvel Studios wins this superhero summer.

I hope Cap does well overseas. I really want my Cap sequel sooner rather than later.

This :woot:

[04nbod]

Whatever Mr. I Hate America
The world and it's America haters can't have it both ways.
We get proactive and preemptive and that's suddenly wrong also. :whatever:
Next 2-bit dictator wants to start crap somewhere I say let it be. I'm over trying to please the haters.


Are we really going to get into an argument about a 70 year old conflict? :doh:

Lets just put this simply. When the entire world wages war and you step out despite overwhelming evidence of human rights abuses and a nation invading other nations (like Poland) its a bad thing. When you strut into another country without proper evidence and start a war likes its an old west bar fight its a bad thing. No nation is perfect, good lord I'm British and we've done some **** in years past but its not about national pride and its not as simple as 'do or do not'. I don't think anyone would complain if you invaded North Korea or Iran. ;)

And that is Miss 'I don't care about America one way or the other as long as they give me comics, music and movies' to you sir.

Anyway. Good numbers for Cap.

[kedrell]

Agreed. Cap and Thor are literally on the same team, so it's win/win. Personally, I'd like to see Cap overtake Thor domestically (it seems only fitting), with Thor retaining the worldwide crown for superheroes this summer. But regardless of the details, Marvel studios and its fans are the winners here. Avengers is set up beautifully. Now that movie has to raise the bar. No pressure, Whedon, no pressure :cwink:


It probably will. It's behind by so little and it has summer weekdays as an advantage.

[JeetKuneDo]

As a person who has traveled to Europe more than a few times, I can testify that Europeans don't hate Americans. They hate "Presidents, Congress, politicians"...but they treat Americans very well. My band was met at a German airport by some friends with a giant Texas flag. Being a musician from "America" means you are treated like star even though we aren't any different than a German musician. There was also a restaurant in Hamburg that specialized in American food and had a big Statue of Liberty mural painted on the outside.

And just about every European I've spoken too has taken a trip to the US for a vacation at least once.

The question might be if Cap is placed in the same category as Bush/Obama. I don't really think he is. I've posted it before, but I stumbled across this video a while back of this band called D.A.D. Their bass player apparently dresses up in funny outfits for every show. He chose Cap America for a show in Coppenhagen. qJXbMlSfzMA&feature=related

[KangConquers]

I can't believe people are still paranoid about this movie bombing.

It had double X-Men: First Class's opening weekend in Italy, and that movie went on to gross 200 M + Foreign.

I'd say 200 M domestic and 150-200 Million foreign is entirely possible. If that happens, expect Captain America 2 on May 2nd, 2014.

[kedrell]

I think it should definitely at least surpass XM:FC's WW total(which'll probably be around $350M). And Cap cost $20M less so I think a sequel will be coming in 2014.

Cap needs $280M WW to get in the black, I think.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

That number in italy is promising. The domestic number is solid and it's interesting that it sold more tickets than Thor but do to it not having as many people going to see it in 3D it came in with slightly lower numbers.

I just hope it has decent legs because well, I liked it. If it doesn't I won't be crying about it...too much.

[TheVileOne]

People don't want to see ****** 3D conversions. More people saw Green Lantern in 2D than fake 3D.

I'm honestly a little disappointed with these numbers. I was hoping more for $70 million or more. I am putting some of the blame on Rotten Tomatoes for cooking the scores and the reviews that were being put out first.

I am putting some of the other blame on the marketing. The campaign started way too late, it didn't build enough. There needed to be more thunder on this campaign considering how competitive this summer was.

[Marvin]

So Thor actually won after all.
go figure, there seems to always be funky early stats where cap's involved.

[Parker Wayne]

People don't want to see ****** 3D conversions. More people saw Green Lantern in 2D than fake 3D.

I'm honestly a little disappointed with these numbers. I was hoping more for $70 million or more. I am putting some of the blame on Rotten Tomatoes for cooking the scores and the reviews that were being put out first.

I am putting some of the other blame on the marketing. The campaign started way too late, it didn't build enough. There needed to be more thunder on this campaign considering how competitive this summer was.

I still say Harry Potter probably still took a chunk of those numbers. It's only 5 million short. There wasn't that much problem with the marketing.

[ciscostudent561]

Thor>>>>>

[TheVileOne]

There was a lot wrong with the marketing. It never felt like it really kicked it into high gear.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

So Thor actually won after all.
go figure, there seems to always be funky early stats where cap's involved.Alot of movies go down from estimates, it's not a big deal. And yes, Thor opened with slightly more but still sold 8% less tickets.

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think it should definitely at least surpass XM:FC's WW total(which'll probably be around $350M). And Cap cost $20M less so I think a sequel will be coming in 2014.

Cap needs $280M WW to get in the black, I think.

I'd say 400 m WW. THe studio gets half which is 200 m. 150 m of that goes toward the production budget and the other 50 m covers marketing.

180 m domestic and 220 m overseas should be enough to get us to 400 m worldwide.

[Marvin]

Alot of movies go down from estimates, it's not a big deal. And yes, Thor opened with slightly more but still sold 8% less tickets.

Potter went up if I remember correctly.

[Docker2.0]

There was a lot wrong with the marketing. It never felt like it really kicked it into high gear.

Have to agree. There were commercials but not nearly like we saw with Thor. This reminds me of the Ironman/Hulk thing when they came out. Iron Man got all the press while we didn't see a Hulk trailer until a month before the movie actually came out. I'm glad Cap is doing well but they actually promoted Thor a lot more than they did Cap.

[Parker Wayne]

I saw a hell of a lot more than Thor.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Potter went up if I remember correctly.Potter's estimate was 48.1mil and it's actual is 47.4mil. In it's first weekend, it went up, which happens sometimes.

I know you are so-so on the movie but don't let that get in the way of the fact that nothing unusual happened to it at the boxoffice. Some movies are overestimated and some aren't, it's not a big deal.

It's numbers are pretty close to Thor's so that means like Thor, it had a decent opening but nothing special. Thor also went down from estimates. I knew the studio was overestimating it anyhow so not shocking to me.

And if Thor's marketing was so much better how come it only did .6 hundered thousand more than Cap? This isn't the same thing as Iron Man and Hulk because Cap actually sold more tickets in it's opening weekend.

I don't know what Cap is going to do over all as I don't know how much people liked it but I certainly hope it doesn't have s**tty legs.

And baring some Inception style legs it interesting to note that none of these comicbook movies have really, really broken out. And by broken out I mean like a 75+mil plus opening and a 250+mil close domestically.

[Marvin]

I see what you're saying, and I'm not implying any type of agenda, I was just informed the cap outdid thor(and it should have) in this very thread. Figured I'd set the record straight. And, yea, like with the RT situation, it seems you always have to give cap a few days to get the record straight.

I think releasing at the end of july is a hell of a lot safer than the end of june. Cap will out leg the june releases for sure. And unlike thor it doesn't have a slew of major "hits" following it for the coming months. Plus potter will be dropping pretty quick.

[Rock Sexton]

I'd say 400 m WW. THe studio gets half which is 200 m. 150 m of that goes toward the production budget and the other 50 m covers marketing.

180 m domestic and 220 m overseas should be enough to get us to 400 m worldwide.

They don't get half ..... of the international BO they get roughly 12-13% which then goes towards paying marketing costs.

[kedrell]

Cap could actually pull ahead of Thor today. It's behind by so little and had summer weekdays as an advantage.

[Tony Stark]

The estimates weren't that far off, it's not a huge deal. I expect that Cap will have a good hold next weekend, and under 50% drop. I'd say look for Cap to do slightly better than Thor's 2nd weekend with around 35-37M.

[superion]

Cowboys and Aliens and Crazy Stupid Love are doing very well on Rotten Tomatoes right now. If those movies are really good they could hurt CA legs especially Cowboys and Aliens.

Marvel really screwed up when they let Favreau get away from Iron Man.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Eh I don't think that Cowboys and Aliens is going to be a huge opener. 50mil at best and right now I'm predicting 40ish.

That being said I still see Cap dropping over 50%, maybe like 55 to 57%. Baring some excellent weekdays I just think that frontloading and Cowboys and Aliens will hurt it. Crazy Stupid Love will not be a factor at all, as it will be lucky to make a little over 20mil opening weekend. It looks terrible but thats never stopped people before.

[Jennn]

Thor had a low drop its second weekend (47%) partly because it had no real competition. Bridesmaids opened but it's a completely different demographic and The Priest opened but that was always going be (and was) a box office/critical fail.

C&A is will be a much bigger draw than The Priest ever had a chance of being, no matter how good the movie is. My hope is that Cap falls less than 55%.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I hope Cap falls less than 55% too but sometimes the weekdays are so good with movies in this month that a 55% drop isn't that big of a deal provided the movie stablizes after that.

I'll be fine as long as it doesn't drop a The Incredible Hulk style 60%.

[DyeLorean]

Well... I'm from Argentina and I have really no idea how this movie is gonna perform down here (it's winter holidays, full of kids everywhere).
I'll speak for myself here, but I don't think foreign countries hate Captain America or the American flag. Is just the country is so important in the world, that people have different opinions about all the different governments, but I don't think that should stain the character.

I've been watching Cap, Thor and Hulk in those (now horrible) old cartoons since I was a kid (I'm 25) and for me is just an event. This whole Avengers thing, I'm the happiest adult/kid ever. I like the rich history of the characters, I dig them in another level now, I appreciate the little details, the influence. I really don't care if the American flag is all over the costume, that's how the character was created, and it had an historical reason for it. I know people that don't know that, or they just don't care at all. Is just happens to be american. Is like someone said up there, I'd watch Captain China if it had good kung fu :D (I liked that parallelism).
Anyway, I'm happy the movie is doing so well up there. Marvel certainly knows how to bring their characters to the big screen. I drink to that!

[Spider-Fan]

I hope Cap falls less than 55% too but sometimes the weekdays are so good with movies in this month that a 55% drop isn't that big of a deal provided the movie stablizes after that.

I'll be fine as long as it doesn't drop a The Incredible Hulk style 60%.

WOM on Cap seems to be good. I think Thor got a B+ on (Cinemascore I think it is?) from people who saw it opening weekend, and Cap apparently got an A-. Thor had good legs, so if that polling suggests people liked it more than Thor, then it should have legs too.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

^I understand what you are saying...but Cinema Score doesn't really mean anything to me because I've seen it movies with C's have good legs and movies with A's have awful legs. It's too unrealible to me.

I do hope that Cap drops under 50% today because this movie deserves to be seen by as many people as possible. It's just good old-fashion adventureous fun and we need more of that at the movies.

[Axl Van Sixx]

I don't think anyone would complain if you invaded North Korea or Iran. ;)

Yeah? How about North Koreans or Iranians?

I guess the Blitz was a reaaally long time ago, so it's easy to forget that having someone drop a ****ing bomb on your house isn't all puppies and rainbows. :whatever:

[Spider-Fan]

^I understand what you are saying...but Cinema Score doesn't really mean anything to me because I've seen it movies with C's have good legs and movies with A's have awful legs. It's too unrealible to me.

I do hope that Cap drops under 50% today because this movie deserves to be seen by as many people as possible. It's just good old-fashion adventureous fun and we need more of that at the movies.

I agree, it is not a true indicator of what Cap's legs will be, but it's really the only evidence we have of people's reactions to this film at this point, which is why I cite it. Plus, most people I know who saw it liked it, comic and non-comic fans alike, though I also hate the "my friends" test.

Let's just say my gut feeling is good legs, LOL!

[DyeLorean]

If the movie is good, people recommend it, and most do take that into account and go see it eventually. Both Thor and Green Lantern are good examples of that (in both extremes).
PS: Haven't seen GL yet

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I agree, it is not a true indicator of what Cap's legs will be, but it's really the only evidence we have of people's reactions to this film at this point, which is why I cite it. Plus, most people I know who saw it liked it, comic and non-comic fans alike, though I also hate the "my friends" test.

Let's just say my gut feeling is good legs, LOL!My gut feeling is that it's legs won't be any worse than Thor's. Obviously thats just my gut feeling. I just honestly don't know how people will feel about it overall. I don't see an under 50% drop though because thats just a rare feat with a big opening summer film because the movies have such huge weekdays to make up for what happens on the weekends.

I'm just trying to warn fans of the film that a 50+% drop isn't the end of the world in the summer movie season. District 9 dropped 51% in it's second weekend and still manged to have a 3.0 multiplier. X-Men dropped 57% and had a 2.9 multipler. It will be doing good if it has strong weekdays and drops 50 to 55% actually. Not groundbreaking numbers but decent ones...I'm crossing my fingers for under 50% though.

Ofcourse it won't do as well as Thor overseas because Thor had the advantage of sorta being a swords and sandles film and the international audiences really enjoy those films. I still won't rule out 200mil for Cap until I have to.

[Spider-Fan]

My gut feeling is that it's legs won't be any worse than Thor's. Obviously thats just my gut feeling. I just honestly don't know how people will feel about it overall. I don't see an under 50% drop though because thats just a rare feat with a big opening summer film because the movies have such huge weekdays to make up for what happens on the weekends.

I'm just trying to warn fans of the film that a 50+% drop isn't the end of the world in the summer movie season. District 9 dropped 51% in it's second weekend and still manged to have a 3.0 multiplier. X-Men dropped 57% and had a 2.9 multipler. It will be doing good if it has strong weekdays and drops 50 to 55% actually. Not groundbreaking numbers but decent ones...I'm crossing my fingers for under 50% though.

Ofcourse it won't do as well as Thor overseas because Thor had the advantage of sorta being a swords and sandles film and the international audiences really enjoy those films. I still won't rule out 200mil for Cap until I have to.

I'm hoping for an under 50% drop as well, but like you said...not the end of the world if Cap doesn't achieve that. I don't expect Cap to make Thor money in foreign markets, but Cap I expect to still do well overall. Everyone concerned about sequel or no sequel, I think a sequel is fairly safe. Time will tell, of course...but I don't see a sequel not happening, which is ultimately why I think we all care so much about Cap's BO.

[Marvel]

Marvel really screwed up when they let Favreau get away from Iron Man.

I will feel bad for all of three minutes when I buy tickets to Cap on Friday but walk in to view Cowboys & Aliens. Sorry, Favs.

[Spider-Fan]

People will get over Favs leaving IM3. Personally, Shane Black seems to be doing something interesting with IM3, so I say give him a chance. Plus, IM2 was a quality drop. We can blame Marvel all we want, but Favs wasn't innocent on that, either. IM1 was awesome. IM2 was good, not great. Let's be happy with what he did, and let him go.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I'm hoping for an under 50% drop as well, but like you said...not the end of the world if Cap doesn't achieve that. I don't expect Cap to make Thor money in foreign markets, but Cap I expect to still do well overall. Everyone concerned about sequel or no sequel, I think a sequel is fairly safe. Time will tell, of course...but I don't see a sequel not happening, which is ultimately why I think we all care so much about Cap's BO.I expect it to do well enough for a sequel. It's not like it will have the venomous word of mouth GL had. I've seen no proof of that thus far.

[EML420]

I honestly expect Cowboys and Aliens to bomb every time in theaters I see the trailer people laugh at the end when the voice over guy says Cowboys and Aliens. I think its going to be this years Scott Pilgrim.

[TheVileOne]

I'd love for Cap to do a better second weekend than Thor, I'm not expecting it though. Thor had a leg up in weekend 2 because nothing big opened that weekend as others have pointed out. Cowboys and Aliens is bigger than anything Thor faced in weekend 2.

These aren't terrible as say Green Lantern, but I'm honestly disappointed with these numbers. I feel the overall campaign for Cap was weak and there just needed to be more of everything. I think we needed more of that patriotic push as well as the early positive reviews. I'm more disappointed because for one thing the movie really is that good and it turned out so well I feel like more people should know about it. I think this is Marvel's best movie since Iron Man and it actually offers a more unique experience.

And I think part of the problem was Cap sharing a summer with Thor. Thor got the ideal placement in early May and it worked well with that. But it just felt like with the big push for Thor we weren't getting enough about Captain America. The first time we got to see anything was the Super Bowl and I believe that was too late to get started. We should've had some sort of trailer by last year. But just like with 2008, Iron Man got the lion's share of everything and Hulk almost felt like an afterthought. The marketing of Cap to me almost did come off like an afterthought.

I was personally never a fan of The First Avenger marketing. It was an obligatory title made to sell the movie internationally that it truly didn't need. Giving it a FIRST AVENGER subtitle was sort of silly like THE LAST STAND and X-MEN UNITED.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think that you are being way too harsh on these numbers. Are the great numbers? Hell, no but it did as well as Thor did and even sold more tickets. If it has legs it will be fine, if it doesn't well, it won't be. Thats just the way the boxoffice works. These numbers aren't disappointing because they are in line with what all of the other comicbook films opened with. I do agree that it was a mistake for Marvel to hold back the good reviews until Wednesday as they probably could have built up a little more hype if they released them on Monday. So many comicbook movies were released this summer that it was almost impossible for Captain America to look special enough to open to 75 to 80mil, no matter how much I hoped it would.

As for the weekend drop, it won't be as important for it to have as good a drop as Thor did in it's second weekend because it's got Summer weekdays on it's side. X-Men had a worse 2nd weekend drop than Thor and still had a better multiplier.

And comparing this to the Iron Man and TIH thing makes no since right now because Iron Man opened near 100mil and The Incredible Hulk opened with 55mil. Iron Man closed with 318mil and TIH closed with 135mil.

Thor opened with 65.7mil and Captain America opened with 65.1mil and actually sold more tickets than Thor so who's marketing sucked exactly? Thor is going to end with like 180-181mil and Captain America shouldn't have legs like GL so 150mil at least total should be in order. We will have to wait to see how Cap does overall but it's already shown that it's not going to pull a TIH and make less than half of the movie that came before it. It's a given that it won't do as well overseas and part of that is Thor has a more appealing primise to overseas audiences, Thor's 3D ticket sales are probably going to be better and Harry Potter will be stealing viewers away.

[04nbod]

Yeah? How about North Koreans or Iranians?

I guess the Blitz was a reaaally long time ago, so it's easy to forget that having someone drop a ****ing bomb on your house isn't all puppies and rainbows. :whatever:

No **** Sherlock :o
My grandfather almost died when the germans bombed the Liverpool docks. Don't come at me like I'm a fool.

[TheVileOne]

I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Thor so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.

[Docker2.0]

I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Cap so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.

Explain this. :o How can he be bigger than himself?

[TheVileOne]

I meant Thor. Call it a Freudian slip.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I never said what the legs would be but it's obvious that this movie's word of mouth isn't as bad as GL, yes it's that much is already obvious.

The first Hulk movie was the first Hulk movie in 2003 after the release of the hugely popular Spider-Man and the hit X2 so ofcourse it sold far more tickets. If it weren't for comicbook movie overload I do believe that Cap would have did at least 75mil opening weekend but unfortunately Cap wasn't in the same postion as Hulk.

It's ridiculous to say that Cap should have been competing with Transformers and Potter money, thats too high a standard for any film. These are the numbers you get when you release 4 simular movies in one summer. Again, not great numbers but decent for all the stuff it had going against it.

Attendence wise Cap sold more tickets than both First Class and Thor, not gobs more but it did. Thats just a fact. I knew this comicbook movie overload would hurt all of the films and it did. And those blasted 3D ticket sales. By the time Cap came out he no longer looked special. Also this summer as a whole has been disappointing on the domestic front so Cap's opening weekend numbers were to be expected. Hell, I would've liked Star Trek or Fast Five numbers but it was obvious that that wasn't going to happen as the week wore on. I hoped for it ofcourse but I didn't even really believe that it was going to happen.

It's too early for you to proclaim this movie a disappointment just like it's too early for anyone to claim it as a success.

I just don't know why you are picking on this movie's boxoffice when all of the comicbook movies haven't lived up to their extreme hype. No matter what the fanboys say X-Men: First Class's domestic numbers are disappointing, Thor's domestic numbers are decent but are nothing special because they are equivalent to a 150 to 160mil grosser, Green Lantern is a bomb and if Cap doesn't have really super legs it's numbers are probably not going to be anything special either.

As long as it does enough for a sequel I'm A-Okay with where it ends.

Anyways, I understand that you are upset and I don't think that Marvel/Paramount handled things perfectly (the holding out on reviews thing was just plain stupid) but I think that the market conditions hurt Cap far more than anything Paramount did.

[Spider-Fan]

I SEE SPIDEY, we really have no idea about good legs until the following two weekends, so to say so now is premature.

I SEE SPIDEY, Cap is also a much bigger and more popular character than Thor so I feel his numbers should've been a lot bigger and his campaign also should've reflected that. Cap was basically sort of lost in the big shuffle of this summer and couldn't really compare or match to big event releases like Harry Potter, Transformers, etc.

Also the only reason Cap made in the $60 million range was because of the 3D. Thor and X-Men first class attendance was about equal, but X-Men wasn't in 3D.

Even the first Hulk movie opened to $63 million in 2003 which is a lot more money 8 years ago than it is now.

Cap sold more tickets than Thor or X:FC. Cap had a bit of a 3D boost, but 60% of Thor's BO came from 3D and it had IMAX, Cap had no IMAX and had only 40% of its ticket sales from 3D.

[marcvader]

What time do the Monday numbers come out usually?

[Iron_Stark]

Marvel really screwed up when they let Favreau get away from Iron Man.


No they didn't. Two words, Shane Black.

Besides, why let someone stick around that don't want to make more of these?

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I go on the Mojo boards to see at like 2pm Columbus, Ohio time because they post them earlier than the site runner does. He sometimes waits as late as 4.30 to 5.00 o'clock to post all of the weekday numbers.

EDIT:

They hardly had any 3D showings at my theater. And Marvel sorta downplayed the 3D as the movie got closer anyhow.

And thats what I was trying to say Spider-Fan, Cap did have more eyeballs watching it this weekend that both of those films. It didn't do gangbuster numbers but it did make more money than FC and have higher attendance than both Thor and FC.

Anyway I think that it's going to have a 53 to 56% drop from Sunday to Monday.

[Shadowlord X]

People who are disappointed with CA:TFA or THOR's opening weekends need to look at box-office trends over the past 2 years.

Only ONE non-sequel has opened with > $70 million and that was Avatar with $77 million; only one other non-sequel has opened higher than THOR and that Up with $68 million.

I have to admit that I had hoped that CA:TFA would open in the 70-80 million range but the American public is just not rushing out in huge numbers for unproven franchises.

Cap probably would have opened in that way if not for the BO juggernaut that is the final HP film.

[marcvader]

If you can put a number on it, how much more would you say CA:TFA would have gotten OW had there not been HP in theaters?

[Shadowlord X]

Hard to say. I'm really guessing but I would say $10-15 million more.

Like I said, the key factor is that the American public is not rushing out for unproven franchises; they will rush out for sequels for proven ones like F&F, POTC, TF, etc. Even Inception only opened to $63 million.

People don't really appreciate how well THOR did to make >$180 million in the US in the current climate. It's a FANTASY SUPERHERO movie with an UNKNOWN in the lead!!!

I think CA:TFA will do better than THOR for several reasons:
1: It seems the majority of people consider it a better movie; it got a better Cinemascore
2: It has a patriotic factor that I think is likely to get the average joe to get out and give it a chance
3: It's an older and more known character that will bring out people in their 40's to 70's who don't typically go to the cinema alot.

Of course all this is my opinion and speculation. We'll have to wait and see.

CAPTAIN AMERICA fans need to remember that it's not about box-office rivalry with THOR or DC movies; the most important thing is that we got a GREAT CAPTAIN AMERICA MOVIE!!!!!

[MARVEL ROCKS]

CAP grossed $7.8 million on Monday. Total is 73 million.

I don't think CAP has any chance of doing 200 million domestically. It will end up between 178-183 million. Hopefully, it is the highest grossing comic book movie domestically. However, that will depend on weekdays and how it does this weekend.

[TheVileOne]

I'm glad you guys are optimistic because I hope that all works out. I still feel the movie wasn't pushed hard enough and didn't look special enough for a summer release a lot like Incredible Hulk in 2008.

It still makes me sick we couldn't get this movie on July 4 instead of Transformers.

[Spider-Fan]

I'm glad you guys are optimistic because I hope that all works out. I still feel the movie wasn't pushed hard enough and didn't look special enough for a summer release a lot like Incredible Hulk in 2008.

It still makes me sick we couldn't get this movie on July 4 instead of Transformers.

But, it did better than TIH.

[TheVileOne]

Of course it is doing better but that is in large part due to ticket price inflation and 3D money.

BOM is reporting $7.8 million estimate for Monday which I guess is good. I hope it can keep that up and break over $100 million this weekend.

[marcvader]

Man, 7.8 is kinda sucky. I was hoping at least double digits.

[hatebox]

Not a bad number but with that drop and Cowboys as direct competition I'd be surprised if this hits 200m.

[RachelDawes]

Good thing I never expected any of the superhero movies released this year to make $200 mil domestic.

[TheVileOne]

Well that's not a good thing for the movies ;) .

This genre is really starting to hit a wall and fatigue. I mean part of it is the economy, but still hopefully Avengers will do a lot better.

But yeah, $200 million is pretty much a fantasy at this point. The best we can hope for is Thor or Wolverine numbers. I mean that wouldn't be so bad because Thor did make about $450 million worldwide.

[Infinity9999x]

Well that's not a good thing for the movies ;) .

This genre is really starting to hit a wall and fatigue. I mean part of it is the economy, but still hopefully Avengers will do a lot better.

But yeah, $200 million is pretty much a fantasy at this point. The best we can hope for is Thor or Wolverine numbers. I mean that wouldn't be so bad because Thor did make about $450 million worldwide.

I think it's pretty much guaranteed that Avengers will, at the very least, open huge. There's a few factors at work here.

1.) Iron Man. He makes money. People like RDJ, and they like Iron Man. They'll turn out just for him.
2.) Cap and Thor were both successful, and the general public enjoyed them. The idea of seeing one hugely popular character along with two popular ones has never been done before on this scale.

Those combined factors will build huge hype pre-release. This thing is an event, it's something that hasn't been done before on this scale. Taking several big-budget movies and combining them all into one universe. If the movie is good, it could very well be huge. And even if it isn't, it'll still open big at the very least.

[GhostPoet]

Looks like Cap is doing great to me.

[KangConquers]

CAP grossed $7.8 million on Monday. Total is 73 million.

I don't think CAP has any chance of doing 200 million domestically. It will end up between 178-183 million. Hopefully, it is the highest grossing comic book movie domestically. However, that will depend on weekdays and how it does this weekend.

Um...Thor only did $5.4 Million it's first Monday and went onto $181 million domestic; That's only 70% of what Cap did on it's first Monday.

If anything, that shows that Cap has a VERY good chance at breaking 200 million domestic.

[kedrell]

Cap has a decent shot at $200M still. It could miss it but I'm quite confident that it'll pass Thor's $180M(which is a good # for Thor's first movie domestic). I think Cap will be at about $91M after Thursday(it's opening week total) and while I do not think it can match Thor's 2nd weekend total(more competition and this is summer where weekdays are larger but weekend drops are bigger), I do think it can maybe hold to a flat $30M weekend. At this rate I expect Cap to have domestically covered it's $140M budget by the end of it's 2nd full week in theaters.

[Spider-Fan]

Um...Thor only did $5.4 Million it's first Monday and went onto $181 million domestic; That's only 70% of what Cap did on it's first Monday.

If anything, that shows that Cap has a VERY good chance at breaking 200 million domestic.

I was curious to see what Thor did its 1st Monday in comparison to Cap. I had forgotten, lol. Looks like Cap is on a good pace then, since it did better business than Thor on its first Monday. But, ultimately whether or not it surpasses Thor domestically or breaks 200mil is yet to be seen.

[kedrell]

As expected, Cap's weekdays will beat Thor's though Thor's weekends should be higher(at least the 1st and now 2nd weekends for sure). Just a consequence of the different time of the year that they came out.

[ddddeeee]

Thor's first Monday was when schools were still in session so it's not a valid comparison. Cap's increase this Friday will be much lower than Thor's was.

[Spider-Fan]

That is probably true, but it evens out when you figure in the increased weekdays.

[KangConquers]

Thor's first Monday was when schools were still in session so it's not a valid comparison. Cap's increase this Friday will be much lower than Thor's was.

It doesn't matter. That still means that Cap has the opportunity to make more money.

I'm not trying to start a pissing contest, I just believe that Cap has a very good chance at crossing 200 Million. I wish Thor had done it too.

[JP]

Wow! Fantastic Monday. Was not expecting 7.8 mil. That more than 2 million more than every other comic book movie that opened this summer.

[TheVileOne]

I doubt Cap will have a sub-50% dropoff in its second weekend like Thor did.

[kedrell]

I doubt Cap will have a sub-50% dropoff in its second weekend like Thor did.

True, but a low 50's drop could happen. I hope it only drops no more than 53.9% to cross $30M on it's 2nd weekend.

[CaptainCraig]

Cap has a decent shot at $200M still. It could miss it but I'm quite confident that it'll pass Thor's $180M(which is a good # for Thor's first movie domestic). I think Cap will be at about $91M after Thursday(it's opening week total) and while I do not think it can match Thor's 2nd weekend total(more competition and this is summer where weekdays are larger but weekend drops are bigger), I do think it can maybe hold to a flat $30M weekend. At this rate I expect Cap to have domestically covered it's $140M budget by the end of it's 2nd full week in theaters.
We are in the ballpark of #'s which means if CA is at $90m-ish after Thursday totals and makes $26-30m it will already after 10 days be ahead of Green Lantern!!! :wow:

[BigThor]

Thor's first Monday was when schools were still in session so it's not a valid comparison. Cap's increase this Friday will be much lower than Thor's was.

Good point, I was just about to say this.

[Shadowlord X]

I've looked at BO numbers for the month of July 2010 and a 55% drop from the previous Sunday is fairly standard.

I hope MARVEL/Paramount continue their marketing push this week.

I'm confident that with good WOM and a continued strong marketing push, e.g., emphasizing the good reviews, positive character portrayal, and especially the #1 BO spot, that CAP can get a < 50% drop this weekend.

I'm not seeing hype building for C&A; incidentally hype seems to be building for Smurfs but that is not as much of a demographic overlap.

It's opening in my country tomorrow so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I'll like it.

[terry78]

Went to go see it again earlier at a 4:30 showing at the theatre in the hood. And it was about half full so people are still going to see it during the week.

[kedrell]

I've looked at BO numbers for the month of July 2010 and a 55% drop from the previous Sunday is fairly standard.

I hope MARVEL/Paramount continue their marketing push this week.

I'm confident that with good WOM and a continued strong marketing push, e.g., emphasizing the good reviews, positive character portrayal, and especially the #1 BO spot, that CAP can get a < 50% drop this weekend.

I'm not seeing hype building for C&A; incidentally hype seems to be building for Smurfs but that is not as much of a demographic overlap.

It's opening in my country tomorrow so I'm keeping my fingers crossed that I'll like it.

That's actually asking for quite a lot, even with good/great WOM considering the time of year+competition. I'll be extatic if it can pull a sub-54% drop, quite frankly.

[Shadowlord X]

I have to say I'm basing it upon the lack of buzz/hype I'm seeing online for C&A. I don't live in the US so anyone from there can correct me if I'm wrong. I percieve C&A as it's main challenger for CAP's target demographics.

The other reason I'm thinking this weekend's hold will be spectacular is the fact that many people in their 40's and 50's, who will be more familiar with CAP and be interested in seeing a movie about him don't tend to rush out opening weekend. They wait for the second and third weekends.

[ElMariachi]

Harrison Ford is the one thing that could make Cowboys and Aliens a hit. Take him out of the equation and I think C&A is more along the lines of a Super 8. I think Captain America will make it's money this weekend regardless.

[Jennn]

I have to say I'm basing it upon the lack of buzz/hype I'm seeing online for C&A. I don't live in the US so anyone from there can correct me if I'm wrong. I percieve C&A as it's main challenger for CAP's target demographics.


well, at the beginning of last week people were talking about how hype for Cap was low and it ended up doing well. But, yes, imo hype for C&A has been a bit low.

this is a cool general anticipation tracker http://nymag.com/daily/entertainment/anticipation/#movie

It's obviously no exact science but for the last 2-3 weeks (before it's release in theaters) Cap was a continuous presence in the top 10 of the movie chart in both the 7-day and 24-hour tracker. The same can be said currently for both The Smurfs AND Rise of the Planet of the Apes (they've both been high on the chart the last two weeks.) but C&A has been dragging. And while Cap was in the top 5 all of last week, and The Smurfs is in the top 5 now, C&A is #14 on the 24-hour chart and #21 on the 7-day chart.

it could mean nothing but it's interesting. C&A has been advertising for what, over a year now? maybe the buzz is low because people have been talking about it for so long? I don't know, not my area of expertise.


That being said, I still think Cap faces a tougher 2nd weekend than Thor did. The amount of buzz C&A has is still 10 times more than The Priest had. And The Smurfs has more demo overlap against Cap than Bridesmaids did against Thor.

[Shadowlord X]

I've been following things on boxoffice.com and I've noticed the same thing that Smurfs has quite a bit of buzz whilst that of C&A is very low.

I don't think CAP's buzz was ever as low as people thought.

Some people erroneously thought that it would get overshadowed by HP. CAP's trailer viewing is one of the highest of the year. It's Superbowl spot got the highest twitter count. There were many indicators that it would open decently.

Smurfs is a threat wrt to demographic overlap.

However I believe that a movies legs depend on it's quality and mass market appeal more than what the competition is. Everything so far has indicated that CAP's quality is very good to excellent, and it has good mass market appeal by being a relatable superhero and a movie style in sync with the good Indiana Jones films. I think it's going to do very well this weekend.

[The Caped Knight]

Captain America : #1 Movie In America TV Spot
YFhAp70odss

[xeno000]

Captain America : #1 Movie In America TV Spot
YFhAp70odss

I love the ad, but Fury says lines that were never in the movie. I'm not complaining because I know the scene was longer when filmed. However, I hope we get some of the deleted parts in the DVD/Blu Ray.

[WildcatNC]

I love the ad, but Fury says lines that were never in the movie. I'm not complaining because I know the scene was longer when filmed. However, I hope we get some of the deleted parts in the DVD/Blu Ray.

Yea, they should have left it in. I've hardly ever seen them put deleted footage in an "after release" TV spot. Weird.

[Surfer]

Just saw an article on Box Office Mojo predicting this upcoming weekends numbers, and they have Cowboys and Aliens in the top spot with about 44 Mil and Cap coming in at about 34 Mil. I sure hope they are wrong as I would love to see Cap# 1 a second week in a row. However either way 34 Mil is still very good for a second weekend so I would still be happy if it does earn that amount.

Surfer

[Liam_H]

^You're not talking about the derby game are you? I'd wait till they come out with an actual analysis within the next couple of days. The derby thing they have was completely wrong last week about Cap being #2 behind Potter.

[xeno000]

Yea, they should have left it in. I've hardly ever seen them put deleted footage in an "after release" TV spot. Weird.

Maybe the lines will be in The Avengers, when it picks up on Cap's part of the story. Or maybe not. However, I think they went for the emotional kick of ending with Steve mentioning his date with Peggy. Had they added much more dialog to it, that impact might have been diluted.

[kedrell]

Maybe the lines will be in The Avengers, when it picks up on Cap's part of the story. Or maybe not. However, I think they went for the emotional kick of ending with Steve mentioning his date with Peggy. Had they added much more dialog to it, that impact might have been diluted.

That's exactly why they did that, I think.

[hatebox]

Just saw an article on Box Office Mojo predicting this upcoming weekends numbers, and they have Cowboys and Aliens in the top spot with about 44 Mil and Cap coming in at about 34 Mil. I sure hope they are wrong as I would love to see Cap# 1 a second week in a row. However either way 34 Mil is still very good for a second weekend so I would still be happy if it does earn that amount.

Surfer

That's under a 50% drop for Cap, so if you're a fan of the film you should be happy with those numbers.

[Spider-Fan]

Yeah, if those predictions for the weekend happen, C&A can take the #1 spot, LOL! Cause, Cap would drop less then 50% at 34mil.

[kedrell]

If Cap makes $34M this weekend then I think $200M domestic is very likely in the bag, given how it's weekdays look to be shaping up. Even if it only makes $30M I think $200M is still a definite possibility at least.

[kedrell]

I just realized that Cap's 1st Monday is around $1M higher than even IM1's. Not that I think it's going to get a $51M 2nd weekend like IM1 did.

[Marvin]

That's an awesome TVspot.
the #1 movie in america spots usually are.

[shinlyle]

Captain America : #1 Movie In America TV Spot
YFhAp70odss

Okay, I've seen the movie, and I still get chills seeing Cap throwing that shield! I'm the same way with Spider-Man 2 when the girl yells "GO SPIDEY, GO!!". That says a lot, as SM2 is my fave movie in the universe and all surrounding parallel dimensions.

[Surfer]

^You're not talking about the derby game are you? I'd wait till they come out with an actual analysis within the next couple of days. The derby thing they have was completely wrong last week about Cap being #2 behind Potter.

I was and that is good to know. Thanks for correcting me. :yay:

Surfer

[Surfer]

That's under a 50% drop for Cap, so if you're a fan of the film you should be happy with those numbers.

I will be, hence my last comment "However either way 34 Mil is still very good for a second weekend so I would still be happy if it does earn that amount.", but I still wouldn't mind if it held #1 a second week in a row. You know for bragging rights and all. :yay:

Surfer

[Rock Sexton]

I hate how they use deleted scenes in commercials. Drives me nuts. Would've liked to have gotten that line out of Fury in the actual movie.

[Tony Stark]

Well that's not a good thing for the movies ;) .

This genre is really starting to hit a wall and fatigue. I mean part of it is the economy, but still hopefully Avengers will do a lot better.

But yeah, $200 million is pretty much a fantasy at this point. The best we can hope for is Thor or Wolverine numbers. I mean that wouldn't be so bad because Thor did make about $450 million worldwide.

It's not fantasy. Thor is already at 180M and at the end of the week, Cap will probably be about 8-10M ahead of Thor at the previous point.

The low number right now would be 190-195, 200M should be no problem.

[Tony Stark]

Just saw an article on Box Office Mojo predicting this upcoming weekends numbers, and they have Cowboys and Aliens in the top spot with about 44 Mil and Cap coming in at about 34 Mil. I sure hope they are wrong as I would love to see Cap# 1 a second week in a row. However either way 34 Mil is still very good for a second weekend so I would still be happy if it does earn that amount.

Surfer

I think 34 is a low prediction too. It's runnign ahead of Thor right now which did approx 35M in weekend 2, so I expect Cap can do 36-40M

[Superhero 101]

Cap will definitely be #2 this weekend I have been seeing nothing but Cowboys and Alien tv spots this week on tv

[kedrell]

I don't know why Paramount always takes their sweet time giving out the daily numbers. Just about everyone else in the top 10 had their Tuesday #'s into BOM an hour ago.

[Tony Stark]

7.8 M Tuesday

[Tony Stark]

It's now 4M ahead of Thor headed for the weekend. I want to wait for the weekend, but this is nearly a lock for 200M

[marcvader]

$7,831,121

[Spideyfan93]

It's doing better than I thought it would financially.

[JP]

If these numbers hold it'll be almost $10 million ahead of Thor going into the weekend . . .

[Liam_H]

This movie certainly has the advantage over Thor of nothing super big coming out after it. After the 2nd weekend being by itself it had to compete with Pirates. Sure there is C&A with Rise of the Apes to follow but generally no one is clamoring to see those. So $200 million is a definite possibility if Thor got to around $180 mllion.

[Chewy]

Since it's July the weekdays will be bigger and the weekend drops will also be bigger than a May film's. Hopefully this can still make it to 200.

It will almost certainly officially make GL the lowest grossing SH movie of the summer before the weekend's up, though.

[Figs]

When is Cap supposed to open overseas?

[flickchick85]

This movie certainly has the advantage over Thor of nothing super big coming out after it. After the 2nd weekend being by itself it had to compete with Pirates. Sure there is C&A with Rise of the Apes to follow but generally no one is clamoring to see those. So $200 million is a definite possibility if Thor got to around $180 mllion.
Yeah, but Thor had the 2nd weekend advantage of no competition. C&A may be soft competition, but it's definitely competition. Same with Planet of the Apes.

[Chewy]

When is Cap supposed to open overseas?It's staggered. It opens in some territories this weekend and in a few each weekend all through August.

[kedrell]

By the end of August it'll have opened everywhere but a few countries.

[kedrell]

I'm starting to have hope that Cap can make it to $125M by the end of this weekend.

[KangConquers]

I'm starting to have hope that Cap can make it to $125M by the end of this weekend.

I'm relieved. Cap 2 seems to be 85% a go now.

[paulogonza]

in july is the first movie dont drop on firts tuesday

[Surfer]

It actually did better on Tuesday then it did on Monday. Not by much, but still it is showing some staying power.

Surfer

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It's headed for an X-Men style drop. As long as it makes enough for a sequel I will be fine.

[Tony Stark]

No indicators that it's heading for that kind of a drop. Even a 54% at 30M, it would still be running about 5M ahead of Thor and will easily make that up in the weekday numbers.

C&A is the only strong movie coming out, and it probably won't make more than 50-55M tops, more likely it will open in the 40's.

[Hurm...]

I just want this to kick ass at the box office. Cap had the most trouble trying to sell itself to the international market, so I'm rooting for the underdog.

[Tony Stark]

I just want this to kick ass at the box office. Cap had the most trouble trying to sell itself to the international market, so I'm rooting for the underdog.

It is kicking ass, or at leas performing solidly. I don't know where all the sour grapes from some people came from. People are concentrating on the numbers, instead of tickets sold. That tells you more than anything this is kicking ass.

[marcvader]

Yeah i couldn't believe how many fewer screens Cap was being shown than HP and it still took the weekend. That has blown me away.

[JediMasterConor]

I think Captain America will be at $130,000,000 - $135,000,000 by the end of the weekend.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

No indicators that it's heading for that kind of a drop. Even a 54% at 30M, it would still be running about 5M ahead of Thor and will easily make that up in the weekday numbers.

C&A is the only strong movie coming out, and it probably won't make more than 50-55M tops, more likely it will open in the 40's.I think that Cowboys and Aliens will be number one with a 35 to 40mil opening weekend. I wouldn't be suprised if it opened with less than Super8

I think that Marvel will be just fine with an X-Men style drop. Thats par for the course really and the weekdays should help it reach slightly better numbers than Thor if all goes well. Listen, I wish it would get 30mil this weekend but I just don't see it. I see 26 to 29mil.

[TheVileOne]

The good news is that Cap had a very good performance on Tuesday. It is now at about $80 million so it should be over $90 million by weekend two, hopefully closer to $95 million. Being at $135 million after this weekend would be awesome, but I doubt it can muster that. I think it will be more around $120 million.

[KangConquers]

I'm going to predict 126 Million by the end of the weekend.

[High Voltage]

So, does anyone know Cap's current BO takings for wednesday then? I'm quite certain it'll be a smash regardless.

Also, can't wait to see this tomorrow night :)

[samsnee]

How is Crazy Stupid Love trending? I can see it sneaking in at #2. Even though there isn't huge competition this weekend, there is a variety.

There really hasn't been a romantic comedy for the older crowd out this summer (Larry Crowne was a misfire), and Crazy Stupid Love can feel that void. There also hasn't been a movie for the smaller kids (Winnie the Pooh is already out of the top 10) so Smurfs could also bring those families out.

So if enough of those other demographics give those two movies a boost, along with C&A, I can see Cap taking a fall.

[Spider-Vader]

I'm pretty sure Cars 2 is for the smaller kids. The toy sales for that franchise say alot about it.

[TheVileOne]

So, does anyone know Cap's current BO takings for wednesday then? I'm quite certain it'll be a smash regardless.

Also, can't wait to see this tomorrow night :)
No. We won't know until tomorrow. But hopefully in the realm of $7-7.5 million based on Monday and Tuesday takes.

[samsnee]

I'm pretty sure Cars 2 is for the smaller kids. The toy sales for that franchise say alot about it.

Yeah but that was over a month ago.

[TheVileOne]

Not really a bomb, but Cars 2 numbers are even pretty disappointing considering it is Pixar. And it is a $200 million movie.

[CaptainCraig]

No. We won't know until tomorrow. But hopefully in the realm of $7-7.5 million based on Monday and Tuesday takes.
Films have lately been around a 20% drop for Tue to Wed when holding #1.
I'd look for more like 6 -6.2m for tomorrow if my math is right. If it's not then whatever 20% from 7.5 is.

[Triad]

I just did my part to boost Cap's numbers today by going to see it a second time...this time with both of my kids in tow! (It turned out that were a little young for it, but they both dug it overall.)
Think I might have one more in me later this week or next when I take my 12 year old nephew.
My wife is pi$$ed that even I went the second time though...she never watches a movie in the theater more than once & doesn't understand the appeal. She feels that it is too much money at $10+/a pop. Obviously, I do not share her views! :oldrazz::hrt::cap:

[Jennn]

Captain's generated $80.6 million in five days, compared to Thor's $76.5 million, X-Men: First Class (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=xmenfirstclass.htm)'s $65.6 million and Green Lantern (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=greenlantern.htm)'s $63.3 million at the same point. So it's been a solid run for the Marvel Comics movie thus far, but it's not to be overstated: Captain's estimated five-day attendance lies slightly ahead of G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=gijoe.htm) and slightly behind The Incredible Hulk (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=incrediblehulk.htm).

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3225&p=.htm


Lol I hope Cap has stronger legs than TIH does. (also if Cap is slightly behind at this point, then Thor was too. And Thor ended up doing fine.)

Expecting 36-40M for Cap this weekend is waaaay over shooting it. If Cap has a 55% drop this weekend it will still make about 30M. but no way does it drop under 50% like Thor did.

[TheVileOne]

Yeah but Thor was number 1 for two straight weeks plus it got a bit of a boost from Memorial Day weekend. Cap won't have an advantage in weekend two because there will be much stronger competition in weekend 2. And there are no more summer holidays to give the later weekends a boost as well.

The attendance figures don't surprise me because of increase of ticket price cost AND the 3D ticket prices also cook the numbers up for both Captain America and Thor. However, I don't think Cap will drop off as badly as TIH and GI Joe did.

[Jennn]

And all of those are reasons why Cap won't do 36-40M. But somewhere around 30M is still possible.

And IA, I don't think Cap will drop as much as GI Joe or TIH (which both dropped about 60%). Or at least I really hope it doesn't.

[ThorThunderGod]

Anybody here posting in comicboards.com? I posted a topic in the thor boards, which was basically just being happy that Thor still had a better opening weekend than Cap (well, Thor is MY main character, so that's to be expected....without gloating or saying anything negative about the Cap movie), and I got a lot of flak from the thorites. As if I had broken some sort of commandment (like thou shall not be happy at the expense of cap, or something), and now I can't log in there. Sheesh. Some people huh? Well, here you guys are, comparing Cap's box office haul with Thor and other comic book movies. Nothing really wrong about that, right? As long as we keep it civil and too the point. I do not know, some people are just way too judgmental, critical and blows things way out of proportion. Anyway, the way things are going, Cap (excellent weekday gross) Cap will beat Thor's box office gross domestically (it's now up by $4M over Thor during the same period, which is pretty substantial). I know you guys will be curious with Cap's foreign haul this coming weekend. And I am of the opinion that the fact that he is Captain AMERICA won't detract too much from his target audience - fans of comic book and adventure (sci-fi) movies. A good movie, is a good movie, regardless whether it's a comic book film or from a novel. If it's good, it will appeal universally. Cap is not a political film, it's a straight action, adventure, and there are enough fans of that genre in every country.

[psylockolussus]

I can see it out-grossing Thor in domestic Box-Office!.

[Shadowlord X]

I think people are underestimating CAP this weekend and overestimating C&A.

I've been following BO indicators online and CAP's trailer views are increasing by 400,000 per day, it's twitter buzz is consistently around 10,000 daily with high +ve/-VE ratio, etc. Its viewer avrg at IMDB and RT is high and very consistent.

In contrast there is virtually no twitter buzz for C&A.

Good word on CAP is spreading. People are going to have to make a choice and I think they will go with the product that's getting both good reviews, twitter buzz, and WOM from friends and family.

I think it will be neck and neck for CAP and C&Afor the #1 spot and CAP will win!

[KangConquers]

I'm still predicting 34 million for Cap's 2nd weekend.

As for Cap tumbling in the near future, I just don't see it happening. Thor had some big tumbles due to actual blockbusters (Hangover 2, Pirates 4) coming out. Cap has B and C team Summer movies coming out in the next month as competition.

I see no reason why Cap can't hit all the same weekend numbers as Thor, with higher weekdays for a 200 M total.

[chiefchirpa]

I feel sorry for Jon Favreau and think he should be given another directorship for another Marvel character film (Machine Man? Gravity? Darkhawk?)

But I support Cap A to rule its second weekend.

[The Caped Knight]

I think based on all the positive feedback from the general audience I think Cap has the potential to be number 1 @ the box office for a second week .

[Tony Stark]

I'm still predicting 34 million for Cap's 2nd weekend.

As for Cap tumbling in the near future, I just don't see it happening. Thor had some big tumbles due to actual blockbusters (Hangover 2, Pirates 4) coming out. Cap has B and C team Summer movies coming out in the next month as competition.

I see no reason why Cap can't hit all the same weekend numbers as Thor, with higher weekdays for a 200 M total.

That's what BOM is predicting, so you're not alone there.

[Tony Stark]

Yeah but Thor was number 1 for two straight weeks plus it got a bit of a boost from Memorial Day weekend. Cap won't have an advantage in weekend two because there will be much stronger competition in weekend 2. And there are no more summer holidays to give the later weekends a boost as well.

The attendance figures don't surprise me because of increase of ticket price cost AND the 3D ticket prices also cook the numbers up for both Captain America and Thor. However, I don't think Cap will drop off as badly as TIH and GI Joe did.

Memorial day was in Thor's 4th weekend. The "boost" it got was a whopping 1.5 million dollars.

[Jennn]

Cap did $5,801,265 on Weds. That's a 26% drop from Tues. I really can't see Cap doing more than 30M this weekend.

200M seems out of reach, but Cap still has a good chance of doing Thor numbers. The international numbers for this weekend are going to be interesting.

Edit - these numbers are from boxoffice.com. I don't when BOM will update.

[ddddeeee]

Mojo up. Cap had the worst drop.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-07-26&p=.htm

[Tony Stark]

Cap did $5,801,265 on Weds. That's a 26% drop from Tues. I really can't see Cap doing more than 30M this weekend.

200M seems out of reach, but Cap still has a good chance of doing Thor numbers. The international numbers for this weekend are going to be interesting.

Edit - these numbers are from boxoffice.com. I don't when BOM will update.


And Thor had a 22% drop on the same Wednesday, and the number is about 1.7M ahead of Thor.

[ddddeeee]

And Thor was during school. It's not a valid comparison at all so I don't know why you keep using it. Friday's increase will show why.

[Jennn]

And Thor had a 22% drop on the same Wednesday, and the number is about 1.7M ahead of Thor.

Being 1.7M above Thor really isn't the point here. July weekdays are busier than May weekdays. And Caps drop is still bigger than Thor's. Not only from Tues to Weds. but from Mon to Weds as well.

I was just hoping for a Weds number at about 6M or more.

[Dr. Sid Jawtug]

Being 1.7M above Thor really isn't the point here. July weekdays are busier than May weekdays. And Caps drop is still bigger than Thor's. Not only from Tues to Weds. but from Mon to Weds as well.

I was just hoping for a Weds number at about 6M or more.


Cap is also splitting a take with Potter. Thor was the first film of the summer. Domestically Cap will make more than any CBM for sure.

[Jennn]

I hope Cap makes more domestically than any other CBM this year. But I certainly don't think Cap has it in the bag. There's no proof of that yet.

Also, Fast Five was the first movie of the summer. I think it made 85M it's opening weekend.

[Surfer]

Cap did $5,801,265 on Weds. That's a 26% drop from Tues. I really can't see Cap doing more than 30M this weekend.

200M seems out of reach, but Cap still has a good chance of doing Thor numbers. The international numbers for this weekend are going to be interesting.

Edit - these numbers are from boxoffice.com. I don't when BOM will update.

I don't know if that is true. Captain America's Wednesday take might have droped 26% from Tuesday, but that is not uncommon and it still made 1.7 Million more then Thor's 1st Wednesday. Therefore, from my perspective it appears to be on pace to beat Thor's numbers. Now with that said, I do realize there is some competition coming up with Cowboys and Aliens this upcoming weekend. However, Rotten Tomatoes is currently giving them a 43% freshness rating (which unlike Cap started high and dropped considerably) and if it does not rise again it could be an indication that the movie is not all that great. If that is the case and word gets out then it could hurt their numbers and Cap could rule the charts a 2nd weekend in a row. I guess we will have to wait and see how things play out. :yay:

Surfer

[rashad]

Doubtful.

[kedrell]

I feel sorry for Jon Favreau and think he should be given another directorship for another Marvel character film (Machine Man? Gravity? Darkhawk?)

But I support Cap A to rule its second weekend.

Honestly, I always wondered what a Favreau directed Spider-Man movie would be like.

[kedrell]

Even with Wednesday's drop(and everyone knew it was going to drop at least 20% due to discount Tuesdays+ this still being in it's opening week), 200M isn't gone at all. It very much still has a shot. Hopefully today it won't fall(yes, Thursday will also be a decrease, but much smaller) below $5.55M so it can make it to a flat $92M for it's opening week. That would be about $1M better than I predicted just after we got the weekend numbers.

[Tony Stark]

Being 1.7M above Thor really isn't the point here. July weekdays are busier than May weekdays. And Caps drop is still bigger than Thor's. Not only from Tues to Weds. but from Mon to Weds as well.

I was just hoping for a Weds number at about 6M or more.

The point is it's well in the range of a Wednesday drop especially being up on Tuesday. Unless the bottom totally falls out 30M is probably the floor not the celing.

Mon-Wed doesn't matter, Cap started with a higher number so of course the drop was bigger. Mon-Tuesday Cap was ahead of Thor. rounding off you're basically talking a difference of 2%.

People need to seriously calm down instead of freaking out about this stuff.

[Jennn]

The point is it's well in the range of a Wednesday drop especially being up on Tuesday. Unless the bottom totally falls out 30M is probably the floor not the celing.

Mon-Wed doesn't matter, Cap started with a higher number so of course the drop was bigger. Mon-Tuesday Cap was ahead of Thor. rounding off you're basically talking a difference of 2%.

People need to seriously calm down instead of freaking out about this stuff.

In no way am I saying that Cap isn't going to do well. Or has no chance of doing well. Only that it's Weds drop was bigger than I was hoping. You think I'm underestimating Cap this weekend, I think your overestimating. Believe me, I'd rather you end up being right.

And dude, this thread is VERY mild. I see no one freaking out. I've yet to see anyone declare that this movie doomed. lol

[Surfer]

Doubtful.

Maybe, but maybe not. I think most of the general audience views Cowboys and Aliens as a mismatched thrown together title by the studio, not a Comic Book Movie. Kinda like the studio said, hey I have an idea. They like Cowboys, they like Aliens what if they were thrown together in one movie. That will bring them in for sure. Now I realize it is a comic book title at its core, but it does not have the history that Captain America does, the tie ins to the Avengers that Captain America does (like it or not people want see how it all fits together) or in my opinion as strong of a story as Captain America does. Also, unlike the situation with Potter, Captain America is not extremely front loaded and I think it has a definite chance of coming in at #1 a second weekend in a row. However, only time will tell.

Surfer

[KangConquers]

If past Marvel Studios films are any indicator, what Cap has grossed by the end of Friday will serve as approximately a half way point for box office.

We'll probably know by Monday how much Captain America is going to make total, and right now, things are looking up for at or near 200 Million.

[hatebox]

With that drop I'd still be surprised if it hit 200m given the inevitable competition in the pipeline (even if Cowboys does underperform). It's performing like a standard second tier superhero movie.

[KangConquers]

With that drop I'd still be surprised if it hit 200m given the inevitable competition in the pipeline (even if Cowboys does underperform). It's performing like a standard second tier superhero movie.

So what do you see it landing at?

[hatebox]

185-190m, but it really depends how Cowboys does since it's direct competition. Maybe Cap will have great weekends...

[KangConquers]

My current math puts it at $196 Million...however, I could see Marvel pulling a WB/ Superman Returns move and leaving it in the theaters to soak up the extra 4 million.

Foreign I'm still split on, but the 2.8 Million opening in Italy implies that it's going to perform just like a normal summer movie. I'll go with $175 M to be safe.

[Spider-Fan]

My goodness, some of you are seriously panicky.

[Surfer]

With that drop I'd still be surprised if it hit 200m given the inevitable competition in the pipeline (even if Cowboys does underperform). It's performing like a standard second tier superhero movie.

I don't think I would give Cowboys and Aliens the credit of being on par with a second tier superhero movie, perhaps 3rd tier. I mean the fact is the comic was produced by Platinum Studios, which does not hold the same popularity as the Marvel or DC universe's with the general public or even the majority of comic book fans for that matter. This is not to suggest the comic is not good, but we are talking popularity. Also, if you look at other titles Platinum Studios has been involved in recently like Dylan Dog Dead of Night which got a 3% freshness rating on Rotten Tomatoes and a opening of less then 1 Million over its 1st weekend, I just don't see there being a huge public interest, especially if it is not good. Now that is not to suggest that there is not more of an interest in people seeing Cowboys and Aliens then Dylan Dog Dead of Night. I mean Cowboys and Aliens does have some things working for it, like Harrison Ford, Daniel Craig and Olivia Wilde, which is a really good cast and it is being put out by Universal Studios instead of Dylan Dogs smaller independent film companies. Still though, not sure if that is enough to take down Cap's second week. His movie is getting great word of mouth by both the general audience and critics alike, it has over 70 years of comic history and he is a symbol known around the world. So, we shall see what happens (it should be interesting), but I predict Cap stays on top.

Surfer

[TheVileOne]

After tomorrow it will be just over $91 million I'd say. Right now it will break $150 million. I'm hoping for at least $175 million which Thor did surpass. Thor is actually still tinkering on and may make as high as $182 million before it's done which is great for Thor. I want Cap to beat it but there is just too much competition even in late July in August.

[Marvel]

My current math puts it at $196 Million...however, I could see Marvel pulling a WB/ Superman Returns move and leaving it in the theaters to soak up the extra 4 million.

Foreign I'm still split on, but the 2.8 Million opening in Italy implies that it's going to perform just like a normal summer movie. I'll go with $175 M to be safe.

Thor's been out of the real cinemas for a while and it just passed Wolverine with $1 show tickets I guess.

[Mysteryman]

My goodness, some of you are seriously panicky.Man, you got that right.
I see the movie on Saturday, but some people here have already had the funeral followed quickly by the burial.
It is FAR from over.

[DarkKnight88]

Weekday numbers mean nothing. It's the weekends that will tell the story.

[JP]

My goodness, some of you are seriously panicky.
It's quite amusing.

[TheVileOne]

Weekday numbers mean nothing. It's the weekends that will tell the story.
Not really. Weekdays are really good padding. Think about it. This movie still made close to $8 million Monday and Tuesday. That counts a lot in the long run because in a few weeks it won't even be making that much on the Friday-Sunday period.

[CaptainCraig]

Weekday numbers mean nothing. It's the weekends that will tell the story.
This is just a, well, stupid comment.
Sorry, it is.

[Shadowlord X]

A stupid comment from someone with DarkKnight in their username. What a surprise.

[Randal Graves]

A stupid comment from someone with DarkKnight in their username. What a surprise.
A comment from someone who think they're better because they hate The Dark Knight.

[04nbod]

I think people are underestimating CAP this weekend and overestimating C&A.

I've been following BO indicators online and CAP's trailer views are increasing by 400,000 per day, it's twitter buzz is consistently around 10,000 daily with high +ve/-VE ratio, etc. Its viewer avrg at IMDB and RT is high and very consistent.

In contrast there is virtually no twitter buzz for C&A.

Good word on CAP is spreading. People are going to have to make a choice and I think they will go with the product that's getting both good reviews, twitter buzz, and WOM from friends and family.

I think it will be neck and neck for CAP and C&Afor the #1 spot and CAP will win!

C&A has been trending worldwide for two days.:huh:

[Shadowlord X]

Firstly I don't hate tdk, just don't care for it; I do hate annoyaing nolan-worshippers.

However, I am better (by far) than all said nolan-worshippers.

[hatebox]

A comment from someone who think they're better because they hate The Dark Knight.

Ignore him, he's a troll.

[hatebox]

My goodness, some of you are seriously panicky.

Who's panicking? We're merely discussing projections.

[hatebox]

I don't think I would give Cowboys and Aliens the credit of being on par with a second tier superhero movie


I was referring to Cap. :cwink:

[Jennn]

C&A has been trending worldwide for two days.:huh:

That's because a low percentage had been talking about C&A before the last two days. Twitter Trends don't track what's being said, they track a spike in what's being said.

ie Think about how constantly people must be talking about Harry Potter? All the time. If you look at the twitter list at boxoffice.com, DH:P2 has almost TRIPLE the amount of tweets than any other movie. It's not trending though because this has been steady. HP, The Smurfs and Cap all have more tweets than C&A. http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/analysis/twitter (http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/analysis/twitter)

Basically, twitter does this so it's harder to force trends. lol so that Justin Bieber isn't constantly trending. The trending is still good for C&A though. Once people start talking, people keep talking.


All that being said, "Capitão América" is also trending worldwide right now. Which is awesome and hilarious.

[Tony Stark]

While C&A will be getting some late positive reviews from the likes of Ebert and Roeper, it will end up being overall negative. But the ultimate critic will be the audience, and I think with Craig and Ford teaming up, along with Sam Rockwell to boot, I think this will be somewhat critic proof. however, I see it trending down and opening under 40, but should still take no. 1 spot.

But with that trending down and Cap's positive WOM, I think Cap's drop will be at 50% or better.

[shogunrua]

That's because a low percentage had been talking about C&A before the last two days. Twitter Trends don't track what's being said, they track a spike in what's being said.

ie Think about how constantly people must be talking about Harry Potter? All the time. If you look at the twitter list at boxoffice.com, DH:P2 has almost TRIPLE the amount of tweets than any other movie. It's not trending though because this has been steady. HP, The Smurfs and Cap all have more tweets than C&A. http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/analysis/twitter (http://www.boxoffice.com/statistics/analysis/twitter)

Basically, twitter does this so it's harder to force trends. lol so that Justin Bieber isn't constantly trending. The trending is still good for C&A though. Once people start talking, people keep talking.


All that being said, "Capitão América" is also trending worldwide right now. Which is awesome and hilarious.

Wow...it sounds horrible in Portuguese...

[paulogonza]

according boxofficemojo forums cap made 4.35 millio today back to 2th placce and dropped 25%, oh my god its terrible

[TheVileOne]

Not a great drop for Thursday compared to Monday and Tuesday, but let's see how it does this weekend.

EDIT,

That Thursday estimate isn't official.

[rashad]

It made $5.4 mil Thurs.

[paulogonza]

if its is true is terrible drop, not even green lantern dropped more than 6% in the first week to wednesday for thrusday, Thor droppped 6%, x-men 5%, its ridiculous if true

[TheVileOne]

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2011-07-28&p=.htm

Yeah that number was a fake lie. Made estimated $5.4 million on Thursday and is at about $92 million now. Should hopefully break about $100 million tomorrow. It needs about $8.2 million to do so.

[Tony Stark]

Not a great drop for Thursday compared to Monday and Tuesday, but let's see how it does this weekend.

EDIT,

That Thursday estimate isn't official.

It's not bad, I thought 5.5

[Tony Stark]

oh nm, you were referring to the 4.35M number. yeah sometimes on their forums, people just make crap up. Unfortunate.

Anyway I said 5.5 yesterday and it's 5.4. Pretty much right on track.

[TheVileOne]

I'm not sure where this will end up. I'm hoping it can at least match or surpass Thor's domestic take. I think $200 million is pretty much impossible. If it somehow miraculously made over $30 million this weekend, MAYBE. But I don't see that happening.

[Tony Stark]

It will easily match thor even at 29 or 30 which BOM is predicting it would still be 3M ahead of Thor on Monday. Thor had a 55% drop in week 3 and the daily numbers for Cap will continue to be higher. There's no way Thor can catch up for the weekends what Cap had gained ground on weekdays, and Cap's drops going forware will be lower than Thors because there's literally nothing coming out the rest of the year, except maybe Conan. Apes looks like a mega bomb.

[TheVileOne]

Eh, we'll see. There are still a lot of big releases coming up in C&A, Smurfs, Apes, and Conan.

I think Disney and Marvel should do a sell job here and shove it up to $200 million (theatres get more money to keep onscreen longer, et al).

[kedrell]

C&A looks like the only sizable contender. After this weekend I seriously doubt we'll see another $40M(or near) opener for months.

[TheVileOne]

I dunno, I hear Smurfs could outdo C&A.

[kedrell]

I'd be suprised. Do kids today even know who the Smurfs were? They went the way of the dinosaur back in the 1980's. And the horrible reviews it's been getting say that it's a movie made to annoy adults(even nostalgic ones).

[Mysteryman]

Deadline has given what they call "Very early estimates".
Cowboy and Aliens $40 million.
Smurfs $29 million(way to go Smurfs !)
Crazy Stupid Love $18 million.
Nothing on Cap yet.
I have a friend who amost never goes to the movies , and usualy her son and husband go before her.
But, she is going to The Smurfs today because she was a fan as a kid.
So, The Smurfs could have some staying power.

[Tony Stark]

If those numbers are correct, I think Caps in the 30's. It's way early tho, tonight we'll know better.