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-   -   The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1 (http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=457245)

Thread Manager 05-04-2013 01:52 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
This is a continuation thread, the old thread is Here

eddy 05-04-2013 01:53 PM

The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
How much is this puppy going to make?

I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

I'm trying to make this a poll but I'm not sure how to add the options.

Never mind. Figured it out.

jacobed 05-04-2013 01:53 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
It'll be a huge issue

Lightsplasher 05-04-2013 02:02 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by eddy (Post 25762731)
How much is this puppy going to make?

I say 400 millionish domestic. 900 millionish worldwide.

900 millions worldwide would be great but Avengers final worldwide gross is of something like 888 millions . So I'll say it can earn at least 600 millions worldwide . But who knows , everything is possible :whatever:

redfirebird2008 05-04-2013 02:07 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.

Liam_H 05-04-2013 02:08 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
Edit: nvm, forgot what happens when new threads start.

KangConquers 05-04-2013 03:13 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008 (Post 25762861)
Should make $375m or more in the domestic market and probably $800m overseas. It has a pretty good chance at $1.2 billion worldwide.

Probably more like $475 M.

Paladin-Hoss 05-04-2013 04:21 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
How do you guys figure that IM3 is gonna match Avengers foreign gross? not trolling, just curious..

Hell, i want this movie to be a huge success, but matching TA box office seems like a tall order...for any movie

Liam_H 05-04-2013 04:26 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.

xeno000 05-04-2013 04:29 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jacobed (Post 25762733)
It'll be a huge issue

Wishing doesn't make things so.

Paladin-Hoss 05-04-2013 04:40 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Liam_H (Post 25763883)
Because of its current performance right now. Its not gonna match TA in overseas or WW gross but it is on track to hit $700-800 million leading to $1.1-1.2 billion WW.

Ah, i see!...so, a promising start for marvel's second phase then:yay:

Financially...AND critically!

Mr. Dent 05-04-2013 05:11 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by KangConquers (Post 25763307)
Probably more like $475 M.

475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.

KangConquers 05-04-2013 05:40 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent (Post 25764229)
475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.

Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.

darthcoolness3 05-04-2013 05:46 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

KangConquers 05-04-2013 05:54 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by darthcoolness3 (Post 25764407)
I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

It will outgross Iron Man 2 worldwide tomorrow.

Mr. Dent 05-04-2013 06:09 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by KangConquers (Post 25764385)
Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.

Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.

Quote:

Originally Posted by darthcoolness3 (Post 25764407)
I am thinking it will do worst than Avengers and Iron Man 2 since it has a new director and everything.

These comments are always funny.

KangConquers 05-04-2013 06:25 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent (Post 25764563)
Hmm, $475 just sounds really high. I'd say $435m.


These comments are always funny.

Well, when you have the second highest opening ever, "really high" isn't out of the question.

MessiahDecoy123 05-04-2013 06:27 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
I think IM3 will be a little more front loaded than Thor since it's a sequel.

Should still cross 400 m domestic though.

I SEE SPIDEY 05-04-2013 06:59 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
It depends on how it holds up this weekend. I'm not predicting a final number until I get those weekend numbers. For all we know it dropped hard today.

No matter what the word of mouth is I don't see it doing much better than Iron Man 2 legs wise because it is a second sequel.

Still the movie is a raving success and it's going to do better than the last film.

redfirebird2008 05-04-2013 07:05 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by KangConquers (Post 25763307)
Probably more like $475 M.

Not likely unless it has WOM on par with Avengers. We will find out soon enough whether that is the case. I put $375m because a $170m opening should lock it for $375m, but there is no guarantee above that. It has a TON of competition coming up over the next month and a half. A lot more competition than IM2 dealt with. A lot more competition than the Avengers dealt with. And it is extremely flawed logic to compare a second sequel with franchise starters in terms of multipliers. Franchise starters are pretty much always less frontloaded than sequels.

I SEE SPIDEY 05-04-2013 07:26 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.

redfirebird2008 05-04-2013 07:36 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY (Post 25764949)
The movie isn't a lock to do 170mil. I could see it going under 160mil if it plays out a certain way. If I had to make a guess I'd say 161-164mil.

I hope Deadline has some early Saturday numbers but when movies open this well those numbers aren't as accurate.

Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.

Iceman 05-04-2013 07:41 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Wow, I would have been really impressed with $400m a few weeks ago! Hope the other Phase 2 films can see a good boost too.

I SEE SPIDEY 05-04-2013 08:19 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008 (Post 25764997)
Rth at BO.com will have the most accurate number, but he waits to post until very late at night when all the West Coast shows have already been accounted for.

Oh really? I'll check on that site then.

Liam_H 05-04-2013 08:37 PM

Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1
 
Who here has the over under on DH2 opening. Could be close.


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