I personally liked Origins, but I agree (with most people if not all) that it could've been much much better. I'm a Gambit fan, so naturally I was really happy he appeared (okay okay, I almost squealed), though he had nothing to do in the movie and was put down too much by Wolverine. I think Gambit is smarter than Wolverine. But anyways, that's not the point. I'll get there hopefully.
First, I think the costumes as in the comics just don't work in the movies. They're just too abstract and will make it a freak show, if you ask me. So, the costumes in the X-movies were sort of the line. Whoever walks in bright yellow while infiltrating the enemy's hideout.
I though Origins was a bit of a soft movie. It should've had a higher rating, more blood and Wolverine's animalistic nature. Even Sabretooth was not as animalistic as he should've been. Though I think the actor that played Sabretooth in the X-trilogy was ****, he was more animalistic (and dumb too!) than in Origins. I think they should've mixed the two and made it a more realistic character. Though I think Liev did a good job. It's all about the writers and the directors how a character will turn out and an actor can only so much to influence that.
I think in theory the new movie can be an improvement, provided that they raise the rating, show more of Wolverine's (and Sabretooth's) animalistic nature, and the struggle against it. Also Wolvie's lack of memory could present a good opportunity to address this struggle.
I'm not familiar with Aronofski's work, so I can't say a thing about it. But if he is as good as you say he is he should be able to deliver a quality movie and I have a little hope of that. I will go see it, though Wolverine is not nearly my favourite character. And unlike many fans, I believe Hugh Jackman is the right man for the job. He can do it, but he's also bound by the writers' and director's wishes.
So, there we have it, and I think I did make my point.