Re: The Avengers vs The Dark Knight Rises - Part 1
My own predictions:
-Avengers: 800M+. Take Iron Man 2 gross as a benchmark. Factor in the additional audience gained from Thor and Captain America ( there is overlap, yes, but its not 100% ), 3D bump, and strong positioning. That should be enough to raise it to 800M, easy.
-Dark Knight Rises: 900M+. Dark Knight broke records, and the new movie has the hype from Dark Knight, Nolan's greater name value, and the growing international market. However, what it doesn't have is the Ledger Factor: its villain is not the iconic Joker, said villain is not being played by a teen heart throb, said heart throb is not providing an Oscar caliber performance, and said heart throb hasn't died before release giving tons of free publicity. All told, I think the positives won't fully outweigh the negatives, and TDKR will "only" make in the 900s.
-Amazing Spider-Man: 600M+. TASM is going to suffer the "Batman Begins" effect- popular character, rebooted years after a poor performance. The performance wasn't as bad as Batman & Robin, and the character has stronger appeal in the international market than Batman, so it'll do a lot better than Batman Begins. However, it won't make Raimi numbers.
Note that these are just estimates, I assume a certain amount of leeway ( give or take 50M ) on all of them. I can also see various ways they could go way high or way low. Obviously, a lousy movie will tank performance in any of the cases. As for going stronger than expected. . . okay, if the "Michael Bay" audience goes for the spectacle in Avengers big time, it could easily break 1B, given its positioning. If TDKR has another Oscar-worthy performance, it could easily break 1B. If all the Raimi Spider-fans come out in support of TASM, even it might be able to hit 1B. However, I can't see both TDKR and TASM breaking 1B. If one does, the other won't.