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Old 07-21-2012, 07:54 PM   #41
El Payaso
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Default Re: The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

Originally Posted by atomicbattery View Post
This is completely wrong.
Today's Wall Street Journal already sites anectdotal evidence of the negative effect on attendance ('Film Studio Faces Delicate Balance', page one).
Also, Warners has suspended advertising. The entire marketing machine has gone silent. Avengers opening weekend was attended by immersive advertising, including non-stop promotion on the Disney affiliates (that Friday, ESPN radio was nearly as much about going to see Avengers- and how much the various hosts' wives also wanted to see it- as it was about sports).
This tragedy has absolutely had a negative effect on box-office.
Totally. People won't just shake this off and say, 'okay, so let's go and enjoy.' Now, how many will refrain from going, how many will wait untill watching in the safety of their homes and how many will think this movie is cursed is impossible to calculate.

Originally Posted by Juicy J View Post
Look I concede to the point that this has negatively effected the box office, but not by a huge margin. Anyone who was already going to see the movie this weekend to begin with won't be put off by the shootings. I don't know a single person who says that the shootings even remotely affected their decision to turn out this weekend.
Granted I'm sure there are some out there but not enough to put a big, serious dent in the BO returns.
And until I see anyone around me skip out on going to the movie because of the tragedy, I'm sticking to that.
With all due rerspoect, if what you get to see right next to you is the only reality you concede to exist, then this is not a really valid evidence of anything.

We don't have one single clue as to how to calculate what's the effect of this, just that there is one.

Originally Posted by warriorking View Post
Also keep in mind all the news channels are talking about nothing but TDKR which includes snipets of the film, In no way has Warner lost out on free advertising for the movie....To say they lost 5 to 10 million due to pulling the TV spots or the shooting is wishful thinking.
Anyone who was going to the TDKR has gone or will be going regardless.
As for the Wall street article I take that with a grain of salt, most of their numbers are pulled out of thin air or their butt...As for the TA word of mouth was the major factor in its huge success and explosion during its opening weekend...not 30sec TV spots...
So, channels talking of the tragedy equals great advertising for the movie? That's like saying showing shots of a country in war might favour tourism. Probably people will get more impact from the scope of the tragedy than how cool the images are.

Originally Posted by samsnee View Post
Trying to guess how much money TDKR has lost due to the tragic events is like trying to guess how much money TDK gained because of Heath Ledger's death.
That's right. We can only know there is an effect but not how deep it is or it is not.

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