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Old 10-23-2012, 05:53 PM   #39
JKKS085
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tony Stark View Post
Sorry but 350-385M domestic is basically IM2 with inflation and 3D boost. 400M is the floor for this film, you can quote me on that, and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

I'm not saying this will be the next Avengers movie, but it is currently the front runner for biggest summer film of 2013.
362/365 is actually what IM2's numbers would roughly translate into with ticket price inflation and 3D boost (if you go by the 15% thumb rule).

Now, even if I think that the 400M mark is far from being impossible to reach, there are several things that should be taken into consideration.
First and foremost IM3 will come after a movie that already sold 5 million less tickets in the domestic market than its predecessor wich is widely considered as the weak link of the MCU Phase 1 movies. In addition, the alleged "Avengers boost" on solo franchises is not at all certain at this time and even if it plays a role, in the end, it'll be no more than a marginal boost to the OWE numbers ,after wich the movie will have to perform on its own merits.

Just to get things straight, I don't say that 400M domestically won't happen, just that I think it's a mistake to take for granted that a sequel will necessarily make more than the previous installement in the franchise. To reach the 400M mark, IM3 will have to get back to a 2008 Iron Man like attendance wich is, on a decaying market (if you reason in terms of tickets sold), a challenge of its own kind.

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