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Old 10-23-2012, 09:16 PM   #50
Tony Stark
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by JKKS085 View Post
362/365 is actually what IM2's numbers would roughly translate into with ticket price inflation and 3D boost (if you go by the 15% thumb rule).

Now, even if I think that the 400M mark is far from being impossible to reach, there are several things that should be taken into consideration.
First and foremost IM3 will come after a movie that already sold 5 million less tickets in the domestic market than its predecessor wich is widely considered as the weak link of the MCU Phase 1 movies. In addition, the alleged "Avengers boost" on solo franchises is not at all certain at this time and even if it plays a role, in the end, it'll be no more than a marginal boost to the OWE numbers ,after wich the movie will have to perform on its own merits.

Just to get things straight, I don't say that 400M domestically won't happen, just that I think it's a mistake to take for granted that a sequel will necessarily make more than the previous installement in the franchise. To reach the 400M mark, IM3 will have to get back to a 2008 Iron Man like attendance wich is, on a decaying market (if you reason in terms of tickets sold), a challenge of its own kind.
And 362/365 is between 350-385 right?

There is no "alleged Avengers boost" Avengers is the top grossing movie of 2012 and no. 3 all time. Robert Downey Jr. was no. 1 on the billboard of that movie, even if he shared screen time with all the actors.

Again, I don't take anything for granted, my prediction is based on this trailer raising the stakes in a way that we may have not seen in any Marvel film, including Avengers. However the film has to live up to the hype. Avengers lived up to the hype and it paid off. This film has to as well.

1B WW is not a rediculous prediction, in fact I'd say 1B is what 800M used to be 4-5 years ago.

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Last edited by Tony Stark; 10-23-2012 at 09:20 PM.
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