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Old 10-24-2012, 12:46 PM   #66
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Yeah, but there's a *much* bigger difference between a movie going from *one* superhero to *six,* as opposed to *six* superheroes going down to *one.* That's too big an assumption that people who went to Avengers to see Hulk or Cap or Thor or even Widow or Hawkeye --- or better yet the team dynamic altogether --- are going to be equally (or more) invested now in just one of those heroes.
I don't think anyone's suggested this will be as big as Avengers? But you should see a similar audience to IM2 domestically, which with 3D will take it up to ~350. And that's assuming the audience hasn't expanded, which seems counter-intuitive.

And you're going to see a HUGE jump overseas from IM2, 3D and market expansion and expanded exposure to the character in a ton of markets, yada yada yada. I have a hard time picturing it doing less than 500M OS.

So that puts it at ~850M WW. I think it has 1B potential, but it needs to be really, really good and catch on with audiences in a big way.

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