Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread
I still think people are underpredicting this movie. If the reviews are good, this is going to be at least 900M WW, and likely 1B. No it's not another Avengers, and it doesn't have to be, but predictions of 750M or 800M, when completely average films like Madagascar 3, and Ice Age are able to make that much shows that people are being too conservative.
Again, if the reviews are terrible, then those numbers may be accurate, as it will still open big, but have a bigger decline. However there's not much competition and Star Trek screwed up by really capitalizing on the first movie, by waiting way too long to release the second movie. I suspect Star Trek will finish about where the first one did.
I predict the top two grossing movies of the summer will be Iron Man 3 and Fast 6. Monsters U and Despicable Me 2 may come in second, but will definitely be no. 3/4 and either of the two will have a chance to be the highest grossing animated movie of the summer.
I think that Star Trek, MoS, Wolverine and Lone Ranger will duke it out for 5-8, Star Trek may do significantly better if it's a huge improvement over the first film, and gets positive reviews. MoS might be a great film but it's in a horrible place in the summer. June releases typically never come out on top. Warner really screwed up the release date here, and should have learend from Green Lantern. Coming out a week before Monster U, MoS will only be in the no. 1 spot for a week.
There's going to be a billion dollar movie this summer, and looking at the competition IM3 has the best shot of the non animated movies. Fast 5 made 600M WW, don't see how the 6th movie is going to top it. Star Trek does not have the international audience. MoS is too new and will be hurt by it's June placement domestically, Lone Ranger might have potential with Jonny Depp, but Armie Hammer is not a well known star, and it's hard to say how this will play internationally.
Sorry for the detractors, but the stars are alligned for IM3. I would not be saying this if Avengers hadn't raised the bar, but the Marvel brand is now THE brand in comics. They've established their dominace and IM3 will reap the rewards.
Bombs of the summer will be Great Gatsby, Kick Ass 2, Hangover III (this could be big based on the others, but I'm going on the 'one too many times' theory), and Percy Jackson 2 for waiting too long between films and for the first one not gathering an audience, and deviating from the book far too much.
"If you step out that door, you're an Avenger" - Hawkeye
Last edited by Tony Stark; 11-13-2012 at 12:19 PM.