Originally Posted by Tony Stark
That wasn't the basis of my argument. The point is two very average to below average movies made between 700M and 900M WW. Everyone underestimating IM3's performance is doing so based on the first two films. Avengers changed that dynamic. I'm not saying it's going to do Avengers type buisness, but it's certainly capable of making a billion WW.
Again if you take IM1 and 2's ticket sales with inflation and 3D boost, that would get you somewhere in the neighborhood of 375-380M.
The film will be a lock to open in the 150's, and from there, as long as it holds well when Star Trek is released, 400 is very doable.
I think your fault is your starting point: that Ice Age and Madagascar can be discarded as "average to below average." In terms of quality, that may well be true. . . but they are entries in successful franchises that are specifically targeted at kids and families. That's a recipe for higher gross numbers, because of all the kids who will drag their parents to the movie ( and vice versa ) based on prior exposure to the franchise.