Originally Posted by Visiting Arkham
This year's nominees:
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Suthern Wild
This is 40
The Promised Land
These are all films that will make it before The Dark Knight Rises, so I would ask that everyone keep their expectations low for a Best Picture Nod. Like, under the foundations of the southeast corner low. Look to the technical awards, which will be difficult enough with juggernauts like The Hobbit and Les Mis in the field.
I think The Hobbit is going to see a major backlash. It might be good, but I bet it is received as apathetically as King Kong and The Lovely Bones were considering it's going to be a 3 hour movie that only makes up A THIRD
of an adaptation of a 400-page book (i.e. incredibly overbloated and self-indulgent).
Also, TDKR has a far better shot than Looper and Cloud Atlas, the former of which wasn't received nearly as positively (nor has the taint of "snub" from a previous entry) and the latter of which flopped at the box office and got 50/50 reviews from critics who are more inclined to embrace that sort of unstructured film than Academy voters.
I have no idea what the hype is like for This is 40, but I would be stunned if an Apatow film is ever nominated for a major award. I do agree, TDKR is a long shot, but some of your "underdogs" are more like "underants." I am serious.