Originally Posted by neemer5
Are there still going to be ten Best Picture nominees? If so, TDKR HAS to be nominated. It won't win. Nor should it. But keeping politics in mind, the reason they went with ten Best Picture nominees is because TDK didn't get the nom. In an ideal world, in addition to the technical/fx awards, there would be a nom for Ann Hathaway, Christopher Nolan and maybe even Michael Cain. None of those will happen. Anyone thinking that Cotillard or Hardy deserves noms is just nuts. Like a reviewer said: Vin Diesel may as well have been Bane. And I'm sorry, but Cotillard was the weakest part of the film.
The biggest unknown is how the Colorado shootings will affect the awards show and TDKR's chances. It's a tragedy with some unfortunate ripples.
The Best Picture field will be anywhere from 5-10 films and depends on a percentage of votes from the voters to "stay alive" for nomination... It's a long, convoluted process.
I agree that if the field is expanded to 8-10 then The Dark Knight Rises
should get a nomination as it was its predecessor that changed the way the Academy nominated Best Pictures as well as it being a fine film.
As far as Hathaway -- she'll be fine taking home her gold statue for her work on Les Miserables
. Michael Caine did wonderful work in this film -- but just as with The Dark Knight
in which Oldman as well as Eckhart gave powerhouse performances... he will go unreconized. I don't foresee a Nick Nolte from Warrior
type of surprise here (I totally would be for it, as I was with Nolte).
As far as Hardy as Bane. Seriously, guy? I agree, it's not near nomination level work, especially in an acting year this deep, but it is far from a standard performance. He's not simply a guy with a mask that anyone could have done. Outside of the physicality, Hardy brought a very
interesting pattern of speech to the character, and intensity to his eyes as well as complete expressiveness through his eyes. He developed a phenomenal cadence to his voice and walk that were all choices that another actor (especially a Vin Diesel) wouldn't or couldn't have made. It's a special performance.
Marion, again, they are only "for your consideration"ing her for the sake of appearance. You can't push the whole cast and omit your only supporting female. Her death was bad. I'll give that to you, hands down. But there was really nothing about her acting in the rest of the film that was anything short of solid. You may not have liked her character, but on the whole, she did well with the part that was written for her, maybe even elevating it.
As far as Colorado -- this country is stupid. They have the shortest attention span on the planet. I say this as a very patriotic American. But -- remember when catching Kony was all of the rage? Then The Hunger Games
came into theaters and everyone forgot. Then the Colorado Shooting happened... But then there was a Hurricane, an Election, a World Series and a few Lohan arrests and this country just forgets these things that they cared SO MUCH ABOUT on the day that it happened, and lets it slip into history. I'm glad that YOU are worried about what effect it will have on the minds of the voters -- because it shows that there are people out there who have kept it in their thoughts... but for many it's like "oh man, I remember that! That feels like so long ago," when it was an event that rattled them less than six months ago. Sad.
But as far as the film goes. I think it will be nominated for the technical awards it deserves. No acting awards. It should nab a cinematography nomination. It has a slim chance at a Best Score nomination and an even slimmer chance at a Best Director nod (tough class with Ang Lee, Ben Affleck, Tom Hooper, Steven Spielberg, Kathryn Bigelow, David O. Russell, Quentin Tarantino, and Paul Thomas Anderson) for an acknowledgement of the whole trilogy for Nolan. However, if Memento
, The Prestige
, The Dark Knight
, or Inception
didn't get him a nod -- I don't think anything
could. Depending on the Best Picture field, it could eek out a nod there, which would be like winning.