Originally Posted by Anno_Domini
Imo, it is when the films simply haven't been seen to already say they can win just like that. Things can very well surprise you, or they may not even be in the running for Best Picture as well.
I'm not saying they are for sure, but I'm making an EDUCATED GUESS. A film written and directed by a guy who has been nominated TWICE for Best Director and Best film who the Academy seems to like seems to be a better educated guess and more possible outcome than a film in a genre the Academy has a bias against, and a director who, beloved and well received, has yet to receive much from the Academy. Same goes for a film in the same series that has won 17 Academy Awards and is directed by a Best Director and Best Picture winner.
I'm not saying The Hobbit and Django Unchained are DEFINITELY going to be better received by the Academy than TDKR. I'm simply making an EDUCATED GUESS on what the Academy most likely will think. Its ridiculous to see this is as silly. Is it silly to say The Patriots, with a three-time Super Bowl winning QB and coach has a better shot at winning the Super Bowl NEXT year than the Browns who suck this year even though no games have been played by the 2013 squads? NO, its an educated guess. TDKR isn't the Browns of the Academy Awards(though the Superhero genre might be), but the same concept can be applied. Also, I've personally seen the rest of those films on that list and while TDKR is my personal choice over a few of them, I think almost all of them are much more what the Academy looks for.