Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY
I wouldn't be surprised if SkyFall got a token nom over the other comicbook movies. It's got a director the academy loves and it's been very well reviewed. Plus Bardem. Yes the Academy gave Ledger one and obviously liked Bale enough to give him one but I just don't see the same amount of love surrounding Rises, I see love from some ciricles but it doesn't have the near universal praise that TDK got. Crazier things have happened but if the never nominated for best film Harry Potter didn't a pity nom for the last flick why expect this one to?
The only major difference between Nolan's trilogy and Harry Potter is that whether overt or implicit, Nolan's trilogy has had an impact on the "upper" awards at the Academy before in a previous entry. Heath Ledger won a Best Supporting Actor Oscar which was deserved (even if we want to get into the politics of why he actually got it) and was an explicit nod to the film/trilogy. They then changed their format in 2009 to include 10 nominees because of the monumental backlash for snubbing TDK in 2008 from a BP nomination (especially when it was more worthy than at least three of the films nominated). There is the implicit history. Harry Potter was never once recognized or famously snubbed in such a way.
However, I do agree that this by no means improves TDKR. At the end of the day, I don't think any of the fanboy films this year (TDKR, Skyfall and especially Avengers) will get nominated. I'm just saying why I thought TDKR has a better chance than the other two. Anyway, all three are vastly superior to Avatar. If that can get a nomination, any of these three should. And that's coming from someone who doesn't think Avengers should be nominated.
Just my speculation.