Wolverine will probably outgross FC for different reasons, not just because its Wolverine.
after the great critics and reception of FC, general audience and comic fans could be a bit more interested on x-men movies now (and many cinema lovers know Fox is on a great track now, with FC, Planet of the apes, Prometheus, etc.)
- then we have the 3D, since The Wolverine will be the very first xmen proyect on 3D.
- then we have normal tickets prize, which isnt the same as on 2009
- and finally its an adaptation of the long awaited Japan storyarc, and visually if will be totally different from the other x-men movies
- and we shouldnt leave out the director, is a respected one from many critics, thanks to a few of his movies, like 3:10 to Yuma, between them.
ALL these factors will make it a successful movie, along with Hugh, but not just because of his name alone or the character. But of course, now some fans will say this is a success because its a Wolverine movie, plain and simple. Tell that to anybody else, thanks.