Join Date: Feb 2005
Re: Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread
This movie has more variables than usual to take into the equation.
Let me start by saying the folks saying it could have used a fight or two, or that it looks too serious, etc perhaps have a point. But, all trailers are not created equal, especially for a Superman movie. For example, STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS's teaser might get people more excited than MAN OF STEELs does, which I suppose is the point, right? In this instance, not exactly.
Everyone needs to know thing: the most important piece of marketing for a sequel is the film which precedes. If that film sucks, and the trailer rocks, it can offset it somewhat. But it is a rule of thumb - the preceding film is the most important piece. The approach to making a trailer for a sequel is entirely different than it is for making a trailer for a film which is a franchise beginner. The trailers fundamentally need to accomplish different things in order to generate excitement.
This is the best teaser for this kind of film I can recall. It it not being fanboyish, either (though obviously that side of me is excited). The movies which Man of Steel wants to compare 'favorably' with in terms of marketing material effectiveness are Transformers, Iron Man, Spider-man (2002), Star Trek, Batman Begins, Casino Royale, The Amazing Spider-man, etc. It is a moot point to compare the trailer with sequels, simply because there are no established characters here- everything is introductory. For Star Trek 2, the Batman sequels, the Iron Man sequels, etc - the strongest piece of marketing is the film preceding it, not the trailers. Superman has no previous film, rather it is starting from scratch. There are pre-set expectations that a film will be any good, for example, like there were with the Batman sequels, the Spider-man sequels (not so much the recent reboot), or Iron Man 2.
Therefore, making the film appear as one of quality & integrity, and one with interesting characters & storylines are the primary goals so that it is taken seriously. While Star Trek Into Darkness can just show money shot after money shot while only hinting at the characters because it knows it will be taken seriously instantly due to the popularity of the first film, it is *critical* for Man of Steels trailers to establish these foundation points before veering off more heavily into the story & action (which are easier sells in their own right as well).
Understand there will be nitpickers everywhere. If MOS advertised itself as all action with little story; if the recent trailer was more like a Spider-man trailer - it would have excited some people. But these people will get excited by 30 second tv spots. It would have generated plenty of criticism for not looking serious enough, or good enough. It is important for the marketers to satisfy this crowd - the quality judging crowd - before the satisfy the action junkie. Ones enthusiasm will lead to the other in this manner, but that does not happen if it goes the other way. One would ALWAYS prefer having people complain it looks too serious than saying it looks too silly.
I would say Man Of Steel has the, easily, the most well-made introductory trailer of any of those films. Star Trek & Transformers had all time great final theatrical trailers, but their winter-released trailers do not compare with Man Of Steels. Batman Begins trailer, which aired with Oceans 12 in winter 2004 (it was the one that ended in "WHERE ARE YOU!?"-"HERE") was decent, but nothing special. Casino Royales was all action, little substance.Spider-man winter 2001 trailer, which aired with The Fellowship Of The ring, is the one of truly comparable quality. That was quite different - Spider-man was sold as a popcorny crowd pleasing blockbuster, while Superman looks more like an Oscar worthy epic. But in terms of effectiveness, they are the best.
I've been in this a while. I am not as steady of a predictor as some here, but over the 6-7 years, nobody on the major box office predicting web sites as he's predicted more break outs & flops than myself. Try and remember how 'out there' these prediction seemed at the time they were made:
-Iron Man 300 million club - established July, 2007
-Transformers 250 million call - November 2006
-Pirates 3 - sub 300m club -winter 2006
-Narnia 2 under 200 million club - Winter 2007
-The Dark Knight over Indiana Jones - summer 2007
-American Gangster breaking out big - summer 2007
-Skyfall over 300 million, September, 2012
-Iron Man 2 under Iron Man, Sring 2010
-Inception > 250 million, spring 2010
Not bragging, I just have a decent eye for break outs. Man Of Steel is going to be the latest. If it had Iron Mans release date, I would be saying Superman will do 150/500+. This is going to be the Superman movie everyone has been waiting for. In June, I would stunned at under 120m/350/ if the marketing continues to impress. Frankly, it could go much higher.
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