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Old 02-02-2013, 03:10 PM   #50
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Default Re: MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

Here's my take:

Iron Man 3
First MCU flick after the Avengers, I expect some of the glow of that movie to rub off on this, particularly in the foreign market.

Budget: $200M
Domestic: $320M
Foreign Gross: $450M
Worldwide: $770M

Thor: The Dark World
The previous installment had the benefit of the May sweet spot, but people seemed to like it, and considering Thor probably had the least amount of screentime of the Big 4 in the Avengers, I think people are still hungry to see more of him and his world.

Budget: $200 M
Domestic: $230 M
Foreign: $320 M
Worldwide: $550M

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

With the combination of this being Cap's first solo installment set in modern times AND being the only Phase II movie that heavily features SHIELD AND another Avenger (Black Widow), I think the marketing for this will likely remind people of Avengers more than the other solo ventures. As a bonus, by the time this movie comes around, SHIELD itself will probably be more popular than ever thanks to the TV show. Thus, I think this is the franchise might be the one to benefit most from the "Avengers glow" effect.

Budget: $185M (Wild guess. I know it'll get a boost over that of the 1st one. Just how big is the question.)
Domestic: $215M
Foreign: $240M
Worldwide: $455M

Guardians of the Galaxy
Marvel's biggest gamble yet, and I think it will pay off somewhat modestly. Some people are gonna be turned off by a talking raccoon, and the lack of resemblance to or characters from Avengers (other than Thanos). BUT I think the whole space adventure aspect, when Star Wars hype is in full swing, will work to its advantage. This movie should look pretty darn epic in the marketing. It doesn't have the best release date, though.

Budget: $200M
Domestic: $180M
Foreign: $220M
Worldwide: $400M

Avengers 2

There's really nothing to say except, this will be huge.

Budget: $285M (though I totally agree that it will probably be closer to $300M whether Marvel admits it or not)
Domestic: $610M
Foreign: $1B
Worldwide Gross: $1.6B

Feige recently talked about Ant-Man being part of Phase III, so I'm not including that here.

Phase II totals:

Budget costs: ~ $1.1B
Domestic: $1.55B
Foreign: $2.23B
Worldwide: $3.78B

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Last edited by flickchick85; 02-02-2013 at 03:15 PM.
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