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Old 03-08-2013, 02:33 PM   #106
Mr. Dent
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Default Re: MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter View Post
I honestly don't understand why some people think GotG will make more than Captain America 2. Cap is one of Marvel's biggest characters and his movie will potentially be the first blockbuster of 2014. Not to mention the fact that 4, maybe even 6 (Cap, Fury, Widow, Hill, Hawkeye? Coulson?) characters from The Avengers are returning in this one.

GotG on the other hand is a completely unknown property. I don't think it will bomb, but I think it will be the lowest grossing phase 2 movie. Probably around $300M-$400M world wide.
I think it will gross more than Cap because the potential for a high-concept space opera has a higher ceiling than a, as Feige called it, 70s political-thriller masquerading as a superhero film. I agree with most of lozzy.94's predictions, but I don't think Cap will gross much more than $450m unless it is universally acclaimed. You say he's one of their biggest characters, but that doesn't necessarily translate to BO numbers. Cap's first movie made $386m at the box office, which is respectable, and I believe all phase 2 films will see a boost on their gross because of the Avengers and the fact I believe they will be better films than their phase 1 counterparts. However, Cap was one of the less memorable characters in the Avengers, his movie doesn't have as much to offer as Thor's 9 realm hopping adventure, and overseas he's just not going to be as popular as Iron Man or Thor, which makes me think his second movie will do at most $450m, which is still a bonafide blockbuster.

Again, Cap is one of Marvel's most recognizable characters but that does not mean his BO numbers are going to do better than a film that, if done right, will have much more of a broad appeal.

Also, you say Guardians is an unknown property, but it is still going to be marketed as being tied into The Avengers and the MCU and will have Disney backing it as well. Just look what Disney was able to do with Oz, which has absolutely no precedent other than Disney marketing and it is going to open at $80-100m over the weekend. With all that backing Guardians it has a much better chance than a simple "unknown property".

Last edited by Mr. Dent; 03-08-2013 at 02:38 PM.
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