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Old 03-08-2013, 11:54 PM   #109
Mr. Dent
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Default Re: MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter View Post
I disagree that Captain America was one of the less memorable characters in Avengers. He had the most screen time (Yes, even more than RDJ), was the first Avenger shown, gave everyone their orders in the final battle and had a lot of meaningful and memorable scenes. I also disagree that Cap 2 has less to offer than the other phase 2 films. That's like saying a Batman movie has less to offer than a Superman/Flash/GL/WW movie, and even if that's true, the general audience and studio execs haven't seen it that way thus far. I'd bet money that Captain America will gross 500M+ and more than GotG, especially if the movie looks action packed. This is coming from someone who's looking forward to GotG than most people on this board.
Whenever I listen to podcasts or talk with people I know about the Avengers they always bring up Hulk, Iron Man, Black Widow, and to a lesser extent Loki, as the headlines of the Avengers, everyone else is an afterthought. Yes, Cap gave out orders and had very slightly more screentime than every one else (not so much so that it was noticeable though) he didn't have as many memorable moments as IM and Hulk, or even Black Widow. His most memorable moment in the film was the first confrontation with Loki and when he told the cops to set up a perimeter and after seeing his skills they did it. Other than that, his scenes were pretty cut and dry and didn't leave as much of an impact as the others I mentioned.

I'm not knocking Cap or anything, but it's hard to argue that him and even Thor had more memorable roles/moments in the film than Iron Man, Hulk, Black Widow, or Loki.

Your comparison of Cap to Batman is really reaching as well. They're two completely different types of characters and Batman is the most popular superhero period. He's on another level than Cap in more ways than one.

Also, I'd wager a friendly bet going the exact opposite way regarding GotG and Cap. It can go along with IM and Cap showing up in SHIELD.

The First Avenger made $15m more oversees than it did domestically, and typically franchise sequels tend to go up higher oversees than they do domestically. Iron Man to Iron Man 2 for example. or TDK to TDKR. Both of those sequels made less domestically than their predicessors and still made more worldwide due to a big overseas boost. But even if you simply keep the ratio the same rather than factoring in the inevitable big oversees rise, and add the incalculable but certainly guessable Avengers boost (Which in my opinion is about $100m both domestically and overseas) that should put it well over $450m anyway. At LEAST $500m (That is if doesn't suck). If you factor in the modern setting, multiple returning Avengers characters, and the mere awesomeness of the Winter Soldier story line however, it could potentially go even higher.
Your $100m swing on the domestic side is really high for this. I don't see it doing much more than $200m domestically and maybe $250m overseas. Of course Cao grossed more overseas. I never said it was unpopular overseas, just that it wasn't and won't be as popular as IM or Thor overseas. It just does not have the same marketing appeal as those two let alone Guardians.

Again, I'm not knocking Cap, I'm giving him his just do. I will even go so far as to say I can agree that this film can hit $500m, though I won't go much higher than that. I'm still saying Cap is a bonafide blockbuster and hit but a political thriller with heightened action and a naturally pro-American leaning can only go so far against something like Guardians, which has the potential to be absolutely huge.

Don't get me wrong, if Guardians is done badly then it will flop hard but if it knocks it out of the park it has a higher ceiling than Cap.

Originally Posted by kedrell View Post
$200M is quite a bit higher than usual for such an unknown quantity like GotG. Most initial efforts come in around $150M to start and then get bigger if the initial attempt succeeds. Marvel Studios is very well known for their frugality.
Yes, but this movie is completely different than anything they've done so far. They will need at least $175m to be able to afford all the effects for this movie and it can easily end up being upwards of $200m.

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