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Old 03-09-2013, 12:16 PM   #117
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Default Re: MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Whenever I listen to podcasts or talk with people I know about the Avengers they always bring up Hulk, Iron Man, Black Widow, and to a lesser extent Loki, as the headlines of the Avengers, everyone else is an afterthought. Yes, Cap gave out orders and had very slightly more screentime than every one else (not so much so that it was noticeable though) he didn't have as many memorable moments as IM and Hulk, or even Black Widow. His most memorable moment in the film was the first confrontation with Loki and when he told the cops to set up a perimeter and after seeing his skills they did it. Other than that, his scenes were pretty cut and dry and didn't leave as much of an impact as the others I mentioned.
Funny you should mention Black Widow, who happens to be in Captain America 2. Also, if you can use podcasts as an example I can go ahead and use tumblr. Captain America might be one of the single most popular characters on there period. He's just as popular as Iron Man (Well not at this moment since Iron Man 3 is on the verge of coming out, but rather around the time of The Avengers release) and more popular than Bruce/Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye. Nobody's more popular than Loki though.
Also there's this:
1) comic book movie .com/fansites/rorschachsrants/polls/?poll=4295&view=results (3rd favorite character behind Hulk and Loki according to voters)

2) (Generated the most applause from the audience)

3) (Not exactly the best indication, but still. 3rd favorite character behind Iron Man and Loki)

4) (2nd behind Iron Man)

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is despite your opinion about Captain America, the rest of the world loved him in The Avengers.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
I'm not knocking Cap or anything, but it's hard to argue that him and even Thor had more memorable roles/moments in the film than Iron Man, Hulk, Black Widow, or Loki.
Once again, Black Widow is in Captain America 2. Also, it's not hard to argue at all. It's really not.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Your comparison of Cap to Batman is really reaching as well. They're two completely different types of characters and Batman is the most popular superhero period. He's on another level than Cap in more ways than one.
I'm not saying Captain America is as popular as Batman, I'm saying the same principles apply. Batman for all intents and purposes should never gross as much as it does if we use your logic. Especially because the action in those films are minimal and Nolan's Batman isn't even half as cool as his comic version. Also by your logic, The First Avenger shouldn't have done as well as First Class, and it ended up doing better.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Also, I'd wager a friendly bet going the exact opposite way regarding GotG and Cap. It can go along with IM and Cap showing up in SHIELD.
I'd bet the first one, not the second.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Your $100m swing on the domestic side is really high for this. I don't see it doing much more than $200m domestically and maybe $250m overseas. Of course Cap grossed more overseas. I never said it was unpopular overseas, just that it wasn't and won't be as popular as IM or Thor overseas. It just does not have the same marketing appeal as those two let alone Guardians.
I don't believe my $100m swing is too big at all. Especially if the film is as good as the comic storyline. Did you hear the applause from the comic con audience when they saw "The Winter Soldier" pop up on the screen? That was insane. Besides $100m would put it at $276m and I fully expect it to do around that number. You are extremely underestimating the appeal that Captain America has. Thanks to The Avengers people are beginning to understand how important he is to the Marvel universe. This is coming from one of the few people who predicted The Avengers would have the success it had when people thought you had to be dumb to think so.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Again, I'm not knocking Cap, I'm giving him his just do. I will even go so far as to say I can agree that this film can hit $500m, though I won't go much higher than that. I'm still saying Cap is a bonafide blockbuster and hit but a political thriller with heightened action and a naturally pro-American leaning can only go so far against something like Guardians, which has the potential to be absolutely huge.
Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Don't get me wrong, if Guardians is done badly then it will flop hard but if it knocks it out of the park it has a higher ceiling than Cap.
It as a higher ceiling thematically and visually. That really doesn't have a lot to do with box office. The fact that Captain America grossed more than Star Trek oversees should tell you something. The logic you're using is based around the idea that despite the fact that Captain America is guaranteed to be in The Avengers 2 (which on its own will drive people to the theaters) and the Guardians are not, people will look past that because they'll automatically know that GotG has a higher ceiling... As a Guardians fan, I know that GotG has potential, but even if the trailers make it look epic Captain America is much more proven and will be the character most connected to The Avengers.

Natasha Romanoff - "Are you boys really that naive? S.H.I.E.L.D. monitors potential threats."

Bruce Banner - "Captain America is on threat watch?"

Natasha Romanoff - "We all are."

Last edited by JB-the-Hunter; 03-09-2013 at 12:55 PM.
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