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Old 03-20-2013, 06:14 AM   #264
xeno000
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
Star Trek is hardly a shoo-in for a billion. The 2009 movie made only $127M OS, a very anemic total that STD is sure to top but the increase won't be enough to put it over the billion dollar mark. Some are predicting a $400M domestic haul for it, which I personally doubt, but even at that it would have to make north of $600M OS to get there. Unfortunately for Trek, it simply isn't very popular in overseas markets. The addition of 3D will help some, but it won't be a nearly $500M boost in ticket sales, IMO.

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