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Old 03-20-2013, 08:23 AM   #266
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
I think people are greatly underestimating MOS.
MOS is the *real* Superman reboot. It's the movie that will make Superman Returns vanish into the dustbin of film history, where it belongs.
Supes has a lot more baggage than just SR. He's got a decades long perception attached to him & that perception is widely seen as a negative - "lame, goody two shoes, uninteresting, overpowered, outdated".

Sure they'll pimp Nolan's name out as much as possible but how much will that off set the negative perception?

Also, while SR managed $200m US it only squeaked $191m OS. OS very often doesn't catch on until a sequel rolls around, & OS is essential if you want to hit 1bn.

I have high hopes for Thor, too, but I really don't see it getting as big a post-Avenger boost as IM3.
It only needs a bump of $250m to cross $700m, quite achievable. If Taylor & crew deliver in a big way it could easily go higher.

Hemsworth's name still hasn't translated to box office gold for either Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and the boffo box office for TA1 and SWATH are far more likely to be attributable to his co-stars.
Do you think Cavill is a bigger name than Hemsworth, then?

Depp's name didn't translate to BO gold for Dark Shadows or the Tourist. Not to put Hemsworth on Depp's level but you get my point. Type & quality of the movie need to taken into account.

Thor is what we're talking about, not Cabin or Dawn, and Hemsworth's Thor just had a huge amount of positive (that's crucial) exposure in TA.

I still see 3 movies fighting for the billion-dollar club this year. Supes, Shellhead, and Preciousssssss.
And I still don't see any reason, other than fan wishing, to put Supes in that company. He has far too much of a mountain to climb.

Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:

The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63
I'm 99% sure that's just for the US.

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