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Old 03-21-2013, 10:17 PM   #33
Ash Talon
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 210
Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by DieSmiling View Post
Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.

I think $200mm is the mark for success domestically -- anything less than that would be very disappointing. I think anything over $225 is a very good success -- $250mm is probably the most realistic goal, I have a hard time seeing the movie go much bigger than that.

Internationally is tougher to gauge -- overseas popularity of 3D and continued international expansion keeps driving up the overseas takes of mega blockbusters. I'd guess $350mm, maybe $400.

Prediction:
Domestic: $210mm
International: $360mm
WW: $570mm
Very well put. I think your predictions are very reasonable and possible. I don't think Thor 2 will get a huge boost from Avengers, but it will get some kind of boost.

Obviously, IM3 will do rather well. How much of a post-Avengers boost it gets will be interesting. It'll be more interesting to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 perform. Will the uber-success of Avengers spill back into the solo adventure movies? I'm curious to see how it all plays out.

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