Re: Do you think Marvel will EVER get the film rights to Spider-Man?
Though Sony may want to reboot the Spider-man franchise for a third time within two decades after Garfield hangs up the tights, box office results may convince them otherwise. Though still extremely profitable, The Amazing Spider-man saw a 16% drop in worldwide box office from the awful finale of Raimi's trilogy, and I can't see the next reboot reversing the trend. With the character's merchandise and animation rights firmly under Disney/Marvel's control, Sony is going to have to do something different in order to keep their gravy train rolling.
My wild speculation? The next iteration of Spider-man will be Michael Morales, whose first appearance will come in Avengers 3 as a Fury recruit to replace whoever Whedon gets the green light to kill. This will come subsequent to the Amazing Spider-man 3's release in 2016 and effectively serve as the third reboot of the character. This will be followed by a Sony/Marvel joint release with Morales fully integrated into the MCU, perhaps serving as a SHIELD trainee as in the well rated but poorly received Ultimate Spider-man cartoon. The change in ethnicity and environment may be enough to goose future box office revenues and motivate Sony and Marvel to make an arrangement that can benefit both parties.