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Old 04-04-2013, 12:49 PM   #532
Kelly
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Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
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Default Re: The North Korean Situation II

Quote:
Originally Posted by JJJ's Ulcer View Post
Here's the reason I've gone from being a skeptic to slightly (but still only slightly) worried about a conflict exploding on the peninsula; the closing of the Kaesong industrial joint zone. That is an industrial park located in Kaesong, North Korea where South Korean companies run plants that have both North Korean and South Korean workers working together. It is one of the biggest and only remaining cooperative projects between SK and NK and greatly helps NK's economy. It would also be one of the major road-blocks to a conflict between the two nations (much moreso than a hotline). If NK is willing to sacrifice THAT, things are getting serious. Add to that the re-opening of the Yongbyon nuke plant, the beefing up of military defenses in Guam and warships moving to the area and things are getting worse indeed. So now I'd put the chances of war breaking out at about 5% instead of 0.1%. But I still think things will calm back down just before they reach the boiling point. Thundercrack was right that the the son is much more unpredictable and reckless than his father (which is a big disappointment, since I initially thought he might be a reformer). Or the generals have completely usurped his control and are acting and speaking for him. That's another possibility.
That is certainly cause for alarm....also, as we all know (the fact that Bush had to write a special letter to the President of China in order to get our people out of China when their reconnaissance plane crashed back in 2000 so China could save face to the world...) tells us how much "saving face" means to these guys. So the fact that the "boy wonder" is shooting his mouth off all over the place, means he is at some point going to have to back it up in order to "save face"....I'm a little worried "when" and "how" he plans on doing that...

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