Originally Posted by Mr. Dent
There's really no basis for this. No X-Men film has grossed more than $460m and the last one didn't even outgross Cap. I'd say both Cap 2 and GotG have a good chance of outgrossing this.
I respect your cautiousness in not just assuming DOFP to be a sure-fire hit (I, on the other hand, have a hard time restraining my optimism), but I think you're stretching your optimism for Cap 2 and GotG quite a bit.
Yes, Cap 1 outgrossed First Class. But you're comparing Cap to the lowest buzzed X-Men movie in franchise history that had no recognizable anchor for it's marketing. Audiences probably saw it as an X-Men spinoff and kind of ignored it.
A movie that Cap did not outgross was... X-Men Origins: Wolverine. It was a $h*tty movie with only brand and actor recognition. Wolverine will now be front and center in the marketing for DOFP along with a whole bunch of other recognizable comic book names and actors in a full-fledged X-Men movie. DOFP is going to have a lot more going for it than First Class had. My gut says that it will outgross X3 domestically. And seeing as how First Class made more in the foreign market than it did in the domestic, then it's foreign gross will also outgross X3 by plenty.
Cap 2 will probably show some growth, but there is a definite ceiling to where its grosses can go. It's just not the type of franchise that's ever going to blow up like Iron Man, Batman, or Spider-man. The Captain America character just doesn't have the cool factor of Iron Man (and the insanely popular RDJ) or the pop culture importance of Batman or Spider-man.
GotG is a complete unknown. If the movie is really well done and super fun, I can see it being VERY successful on its own merits and with the Marvel name. I really just can't tell yet. It could also be a total bomb. But just as you say you wouldn't label DOFP an event movie, I wouldn't place any bets on GotG just yet either.