Originally Posted by Mr. Dent
475m is too high. It'll be on the lower end of 400m.
Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.
Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Captain America- 2.715
That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.
The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.