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Old 05-04-2013, 11:08 PM   #30
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Join Date: Dec 2005
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.

The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.
It might be useful to look at 2nd sequel multipliers as they're usually more front ended & most of those MCU films that did well are origin films. Avengers' multiplier of 3 was great for something opening that large so it would do well to get near that but I wouldn't expect it to.

Still a huge success story though. $300m would have been fine. $400m is amazing really for a film based on the Iron Man character and it could go a fair amount higher. Also now that the international audience have caught on I expect the future Avengers films BO to get even more crazy. Those guys love their big explosive sequels and once they're on board they stay on board even when the films start losing it totally (Pirates 3 & 4!).

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