Originally Posted by Bruce Malone
If anything people should see how with SITD over-expectations in Box office are very possible.
That's a lesson for MOS, i wonder if WB is going to temper their OW predictions for MOS? Paramout was originally predicting over a $100m weekend than dropped it down quickly to the mid-80's when the friday results came in.
I'd say STID actually had the advantage over MOS in that it was coming off a sucessful well received predecessor.
I feel there are good reasons to believe that MOS will perform better than STID:
1) MOS will have less competition. It really will have the first weekend all to itself. STID is really being hurt by the overperformances of IM3 and TGG. I read somewhere that TGG's success is taking away some female moviegoers who may else have seen STID.
2) MOS is opening Father's Day weekend which should boost the box office.
3) Superman has more wider appeal than Star Trek.
4) The marketing of STID was terrible with boring trailers and they moved it up a day at the last minute so that probably confused audiences.
5) The marketing for MOS is impressive. Great action packed trailers and the collaboration with Wal-Mart. If MOS underperforms I do not think anybody can claim that it is because no one knew about it or the trailers did not reveal it's awesomeness.
6) STID has no big stars and I think it has hurt it. I read when they were developing the first ST that they wanted Matt Damon and Adrien Brody. Now I am not saying it would make all the difference in world, but when regular moviegoers see known actors in a trailer it makes you notice it more at least so I think it does matter. MOS has Russell Crowe, Amy Adams, Kevin Costner, and Diane Lane. They all may not be the biggest drawers in Hollywood, but it does give a film certain prestige that makes people stand up and take notice.
7) Though I have not yet seen STID I must say that I can undertand why fans are divided and this may have affected WOM even during the first weekend. First of all many are saying that it is just a remake of TWOK. Also, I hear there is an anti-Bush political message. Now if you want a movie to have mass appeal you just do NOT include a political message that you know will offend half the country! This should be filmmaking 101.
I am not a blind optimist, but I really think MOS will easily reach 100 million in it's first weekend.