Re: DOFP vs other 2014 ComicsMovies Thread [Buzz, BoxOffice and more]
Honestly if Superman is doing $650mil there is no way Xmen can do better. The Wolverine is probably gonna end up close to $400mil, and I imagine DOFP will do only $450mil to $500mil (which I dont really see happening). Hype from the fans that were gonna watch the movie anyway doesn't really mean much. If another studio did the same viral ads for a movie with a "geeky" audience they would probably see the same results.
The cast coming back will probably not pay a huge factor. The last film with the old cast came out 8 years ago, and with the Xmen franchise not having that insane-mega franchise vibe, missing out on Merchandise tie ins and TV cartoon shows over the past couple years, kids and possibly teenagers under the age of 16 just wont give a damn that Anna Paquin is playing Rogue again, and the people that do were probably already invested in the franchise anyway.
The Xmen characters just dont have the popularity they once did, and with Fox not being allowed to have Cartoons and merchandise ads play on kids TV constantly to promote the movie (i still see iron man ads when my kid watches nickelodeon), as well as build familiarity with the characters, the studio that allowed Thor to out gross Wolverine are will probably for the next Captain America to out gross their Xmen film.
Also the US have some movies coming out the week later that could really slow momentum, a Pixar movie would likely take away the family audience and the Seth Macfarlane comedy (considering how well his last film did) could take away young adults and some teens. I just dont see how DOFP, financially, could be the summer mega hit Fans want. It will do good though but it just wont re-position the franchise into that Summer-Juggernaut area that Pixar, Marvel, Transformers and even Fast and Furious are currently in. I imagine Fox would want that if they plan on expanding their X universe.