...seems to be very heavy. The case could be made that it's based more off of that story arc than the Winter Soldier. For those who don't know:
Several characters and concepts that were introduced in that arc are also appearing here, namely Alexander Pierce, Jasper Sitwell, Jack Rollins, and the World Security Council (or the S.H.I.E.L.D. Board of Directors as it was known there).
Going by the trailer and other things, I can surmise that:
Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
We can supplant AIM with HYDRA as the organization that infiltrates S.H.I.E.L.D. Alexander Pierce, certain members of the WSC, and Jasper Sitwell are all HYDRA and Jack Rollins and Brock Rumlow will likely be converted if they're not already HYDRA operatives. Using the influence that they've incurred over the years, the HYDRA agents are using the Battle of New York as an opportunity to have S.H.I.E.L.D. become more militant and build tons of war machines. Nick Fury finds out about the infiltration, Alexander Pierce hires the Winter Soldier to assassinate Nick Fury and brands Cap, Widow, and Falcon as traitors and blacklists them.
Also, it's possible that in the MCU the Russians who were using Winter Soldier during the Cold War were actually HYDRA agents using him to influence the war in their favor, which is why Pierce knows of him and explains his line in the trailer of "you've helped shape the century" - if he's talking to Winter Soldier.
Also, Pierce probably assigns Sharon Carter to keep an eye on Cap at the start of the movie.
All this basically sets up HYDRA as a Patriots (Illuminati) type organization in the MCU, to use a MGS comparison since this movie is probably the closest thing we'll ever get to a MGS movie, that has been in the shadows of society ever since the end of WWII and has included powerful individuals across the world at all levels of government.
As a side note, I really like just how much this movie is taking elements from all kinds of Cap and SHIELD stories and mashing them all together here in one coherent movie (...hopefully). We've got the Agent Rogers costume which matches with him being a SHIELD agents, we've got the Triskelion, we've got the Winter Soldier and Nick Fury vs. S.H.I.E.L.D. storylines, Crossbones, Sharon Carter, Falcon, Batroc. It's unbelievable that we're able to get this much Captain America lore in a blockbuster movie. Thought it would never happen.