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Old 11-10-2013, 11:56 AM   #752
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
It depends how you look at it. In many ways, Iron Man 3 functioned as a sequel to the Avengers at the box office.

If you look at Thor in terms of growth from Thor 1 to Thor 2? The opening is successful. If you look at it in terms of "% of people who saw Avengers, and decided Thor was a character they liked enough to give another shot at the box office" it's kind of pitiful. Where as Iron Man 3 retained 83% of the Avengers opening weekend crowd, Thor failed to retain even half.

It just shows what a large gap there is between Downey's Iron Man and everyone else, and that Marvel Studios is not quite as synonymous with Box office smashes as I hoped.

Maybe I'm extrapolating too much from this, but I see Thor as the MCU's safe #2 character. If Thor: The Dark World caps out at about $600 M, that in my mind "caps" most of the non-Iron Man MCU.

If Thor can't do $700-750 M, can Cap still do $500 M? Will Guardians of the Galaxy have a TIH, or worse, Green Lanternesque performance? I guess I saw a true blockbuster Thor performance ($250 M domestic, $500 M foreign) as indicative of a safety net for other Marvel properties.
It could actually do 500mil overseas and for all we know 250mil domestically. I'm not predicting 250mil, I'm thinking 230-240mil right now. That's close enough though. Captain America: Winter Soldier is not going to do Thor: The Dark World numbers internationally but I think it could do just as well as Thor domestically.

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