Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread
To be fair, I think the only YA novel-based films that have done over 100mil on OW are the Harry Potter movies, Hunger Games movies and Twilight. While… less said about Twilight the better, Harry Potter and Hunger Games/Catching Fire have huge fanbases plus the benefit of legitimately amazing reviews for the product that helped drive OW grosses up for those movies. The recent spate of YA films based on "popular" series (Mortal Instruments, Vampire Academy, Percy Jackson, Cirque duFreak, The Host…) have basically bombed and bombed hard at the box office.
Ideally, I'd absolutely love for Cap to join their ranks but I do think it would have to be a perfect storm of great buzz following the fan screenings/overseas premieres and positive reviews to get a huge OW and to ensure second week legs are strong, because CBMs drop hard typically that second week.
"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled."