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Old 03-19-2014, 11:49 AM   #109
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Originally Posted by EssayM View Post
Okay. Here's what I think the thought process was...

The year was 2012. Fox noticed that they'd been having success with their X-Men franchise, remembered that they still owned the rights to another lucrative Marvel franchise (the Story films, for all their faults, did do well financially), and decided to give it an Ultimates-based reboot a la the then-recent success The Amazing Spider-Man (likely unaware of UFF's negative reputation). They brought in Josh Trank, fresh off his success with Chronicle, another movie about teenage superheroes that had been a box-office success on a small budget (a big plus in this economy). Add a cast of up-and-coming young actors with a lot of buzz around them (one of them already acquainted with the up-and-coming director), and it's not unreasonable to think that Fox would expect a good return on this.

With all of that, the better question would be, "Why are they trying to kill it?" (If they actually are.)
That's an interesting take. Here is what I think happened.

After experiencing over a $40M drop at the box with the ROTSS sequel, the series was cancelled by FOX. FOX likely would have let the rights slip away, if not for a few key factors:

2007 - Marvel and FOX stopped playing nice - Feige and Story have confirmed that the character Andre Braugher played in the sequel was going to be Nick Fury, but Feige turned FOX down. With their own studio to build, Marvel was no longer bending over backwards to accomodate their licensees. I'm certain that Marvel asked for, and were denied immediate reversion after the FOX series was cancelled. With a studio to build, FOX knew the the rights held value to Marvel.

2009 - Disney buyout - By announcing the FF reboot one day after the Disney buyout, it appeared as though FOX was hoping a large chunk of cash would fall into their collective laps. That didn't happen, so FOX was faced with actually putting a movie into production or simply let the rights revert.

2011 - Marvel building momentum - In an upset, both Thor and Cap outgrossed the favored and well reviewed XM:FC at the box office. FF rights reversion would only strengthen a studio that had begun to dominate the competition. But faced with increased competition, a failed prior duology, no licensing revenue, and a character family that is very expense to commit to film, how could FOX get the financing to work?

2012 - Chronicle 2 - Josh Trank's critically and financially successful film on just a $12M budget shows FOX the template -Low budget, star free, grounded, youth appeal. The team may not resemble the 616 version - or the Ultimate version, for that matter. But superhero movies are riding a wave right now, and FOX may be able to squeak out a modest return on the reboot while keeping the rights away from the MCU juggernaut.

2014 - Backlash - It turns out that a lot of people care about Marvel's First Family. I mean really, really care about them. And putting out a version of the team that includes three male leads born within one year of each other, a twenty something Reed, an African American Johnny and a slightly built Ben...that's a big problem. And with FOX's second most expensive film opening within a few months, fanboy backlash is something of which the studio should be very concerned.

2015 - End Result - We shall see.

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