View Single Post
Old 07-29-2014, 11:06 AM   #401
Marvin's Avatar
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Toronto
Posts: 19,612
Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

Originally Posted by JOE View Post
CBM to hit 1B:

The Dark Knight- Arguably the best CBM of all time. Heath Ledger's death.
The Avengers- 6 year build up. Payoff of Marvel cinematic universe. Revolutionary.
The Dark Knight Rises- Sequel to best CBM of all time. Excellent marketing, conclusion to Nolan's trilogy.
Iron Man 3- Avengers spinoff to highest grossing CBM of all time, Iron Man was on top of the world. RDJ.

Why is 1B considered a "lock" just because it's Batman and Superman. This isn't Nolan's Batman, this is Snyder's. I don't see that justifying this movie joining the company of what 4 other movies have only been able to accomplish. The Avengers 2 is the only movie worthy and deserving of being a lock for 1B as far as I'm concerned. I'm not a Marvel fanboy, I'm just trying to be grounded. As far as a lock, I'd say this movie is at 750M. No, that doesn't mean I think this movie will make 750M WW, I'm saying it definitely will not make less than that. I'm predicting around 850-900M.
Originally Posted by JOE View Post
People waited years to see Superman on the big screen throw a punch and have a real fight scene. That didn't bring in a billion, even with one of the most visually talented directors money can buy. It's more than just bringing them together on screen, it's what they do with them. I have zero confidence in Snyder after MOS. I fear he's going to replicate that same feeling in this movie for me.
That's great that people waited years to see him 'throw a punch'! Just how many more people is that than the people that simply waited to see him on screen? Superman Returns wass superman's big return to the big screen and it makes like 400mill but a superman movie in which he throws a punch and all of a sudden you are given grounds to assert that it was 'supposed' to do a whole lot more? And then you patronize Synder visual talents(when convenient of course but belittle him on the opposite occasion of sequel potential). Singer made his superman movie with the superman brand and the advantage of actually being the 20 year return and it truly 'under performed'. Synder came in and used the same brand but without the advantage of being the 20 year return but rather the follow up to something young people really think is lamer than the rest of the bunch and did great numbers(especially domestically)? MOS opened big domestically and it went on to do great numbers domestically. All that with real competition to boot. For more of an excuse than any domestic performer this year anyways.

Till then, I get that you and yours didn't like MOS but it landed and it landed very solidly. I get(assume) that you and yours probably don't like the transformers films and they keep over performing in this regard. Wanna figure why that is? It usually has something to do with how the GA works. Also, when something has Alist momentum it's no longer a matter of 'Snyder/Bay hasn't earned my trust yet'.

Further, I have a major problem with your categorizing. For example, instead of maybe listing the 4 cbm that have hit a billion and how hard it seemingly is for them to do so, hows about we instead list the amount of films that have hit a billion and look at this next installment in that regard?

I also think one needs to start appreciating just what a zeitgeist is. I keep coming back to just how much of this same rhetoric was thrown at Avengers prior to going in. People(and analysts) had it doing less than TDK numbers because the mcu films weren't actually all that big(or all that good imo) leading in, though history has kinda been re-written. The film broke records even before the more tangible word of mouth gave it the legs. That wasn't simply cause Whedon made the greatest film ever, alot of that had to do with film goer's interest in being a part of an event. Just how much less would that film have made if it wasn't as good? Less than a billion? That didn't seem to stop IM3....a film that wasn't as good a avengers. The point is that of zeitgeist and momentum.

And yes, the last two batman films have hit a billion without 3D, this is the next film to have his name in the title. Take that with whatever grain of salt you prefer and spread it out over the established foreign market for that character. Just what was MOS' foreign market share potential going in? Pay attention to how much ground had to be covered between the subsequent TDKT releases in the foreign markets. Pay attention to what the MCU has done in this same regard. The same thing will most likely happen with the new superman brand and when it does...the WW advantage the mcu films had(See Cap2) will decline. That is, had MOS done as well internationally as the follow ups to the Avengers we'd be looking at a different WW figure today. How you do this is by establishing something for those markets to get behind as TF and the MCU films have done.

Lastly, You're right, Snyder isn't Nolan(in branding), just because TDK made a billion that doesn't automatically mean Snyders stand alone batman film would stand to make as much. Just how much would Snyder's stand alone batman film make today? Whilst you think about that, think about the fact that Snyder isn't making his stand alone batman film.
Think of it this way. If snyder made an Ironman film right now, it may not do as well as the genius that was Shane Blacks film(for arguments sake). But what would happen if right now Snyder made a film starring Ironman and The Hulk(with the promise of a Hulk Buster fight and bro-science) in an established continuity? Would all this Snyder sucks crap even matter or would the actual momentum of the event shine through the discussion? I would argue the latter and call it a day.

I have never felt more certain that 1 billion a lock for a film than I have this(and a few others obviously). I for one feel I'm one of the few that is contextualizing the MOS' numbers properly given it's actual circumstance. A film does great and better than most other films that supposedly do great and it's endlessly under played due to some fickle proclamation that it was supposed to do more. I think the film would have to seriously suck for it to not strive off of the event alone(Wonder Woman debut at that), and whether fanboys want to admit it or not, even MOS didn't suck as bad as this film would need to.

"I care because filmmakers now make films under crippling security because of parasitic gossip. makes movies worse"
-James Mangold.
Marvin is offline