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Old 12-11-2012, 03:39 PM   #144
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Default Re: Man of Steel - worried about Star Trek 2, Iron Man 3, and The Wolverine?

Quote:
Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie View Post
I have no doubt this is going to be a huge hit domestic. Highest-grossing reboot even.

But to say its going to trump big sure-thing sequels like Despicable Me 2 and Star Trek Into Darkness is fanboy blubbering. Not happening.
I've followed, analyzed, and predicted the box office every weekend for 9 years. Not that what you say is silly, but a few things merit discussion.

1. Star Trek 2 will be much more Iron Man 2 than The Dark Knight. Just as Iron Man 2 barely increased over Iron Man 1, look for the same deal. Star Trek inflates to 84/275. Look for an opening weekend around 120 million, and a finish around 300-315 million. Not too far ahead of your own Man of Steel prediction.

2. Despicable Me 2 is a huge wild card. The lasts one 50/256 gross is outstanding. The only thing I dislike about it is Competition. Monsters University is going to do something like 70-75/250-260ish. This will prevent DM2 from doing, say, 120/450 or something. DM2 will increase significantly over the first one, but it's potential is capped. A 5 day gross of 125 and total around 350 are what I see for it.

3. Iron Man- though the character is popular, it is worth noting that this si 4 Iron Man films in 6 summers. Though Avengers was beloved, Iron Man 2 was hardly overly popular. 4 films is just a lot of one character, espec. back to back summers. Something like 145/325 seems right for it. Iron Mans on the down trend.

Man Of Steel should have no trouble topping 300 million if the footage continues to look good. Superman Returns inflates to 245 million. with 3 D and expanded Imax, like MOS will have, that is right around 280 million. MOS looks far more appealing than SR, and has no Pirates 2. At the very least, I expected a 10% admissions increase over SR for MOS, which put it around $310 million. That is really the tip of the ice berg.

Personally, I am envisioning something like this next June, assuming things go as planned.

-10 millionish in midnights
-50 million Friday = 60 million Opening day
-50 million Saturday
-35 million Sunday = 145 million opening weekend. Easily the biggest June weekend on record. Factoring in 3D and inflation, it is not that far ahead of Toy Story 3.

Good legs. 145/425. My faith in the product & marketing have exploded.

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