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Old 04-05-2013, 01:59 PM   #166
Willie Lumpkin
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Default Re: The "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) thread

Originally Posted by Zarex View Post
Come on now - remember the title of this forum thread!

The thing I keep coming back to is the following -I don't see the potential revenues from this project being worth the enormous risk for FOX.

ROTSS grossed $289 million worldwide (per Box Office Mojo). Given the results of the recent reboots of Spider-man and X-Men, the reboot will likely struggle to reach this amount. But let's say, despite opening up just 56 days before Avengers 2 and disappointing many fans who want to see the team in the MCU, Trank's film sees a slight boost to $300 million.

I managed a movie theater about a million years ago, but at the time the studios kept 90% of proceeds from opening week, and the percentages dropped for each following week. From what I have heard, the splits going to the theaters are much more generous in overseas markets. But let's say in total FOX realizes about 65% of the gross, or $195 million.

The first two films looked as though they were cheaply made despite decent budgets, but if Trank, Millar and company are going to show us the negative zone and a fully CGI Thing, the budget will need a boost. ROTSS cost (again, per Box Office Mojo) $130 million. With four characters (at least) requiring expensive special effects, I am estimating a $50 million boost to $180 million.

On to merchandise and other ancillary revenue - unfortunately for FOX, there isn't any. Perouse Marvel 10Ks prior to the Disney buy out and you will see that despite giving away the house on film rights, Marvel maintained a majority interest in merchandise rights for licensed characters and control over their usage. And I don't think Disney is going to clear Avengers, Spider-man and Star Wars toys off the shelves to make room for stretchable Mr. Fantastics and Thing hands.

So in what I see as a best case scenario, FOX is looking at a $15 million return on an $180 million budget. And that's assuming their very green (though talented) director can keep the film's costs under control and Disney/Marvel doesn't do something wacky like release The Incredibles 3D in the same time frame.

There is a reason FOX nixed a third FF film despite receiving ancillary revenue from the sale of backpacks, toys and t-shirts. And why they have waited so long to put a reboot into production. Keep Hope Alive!
A lot of interesting information there, but one area you don't mention (unless it's included in the other areas and I'm not aware) is DVD's and Blu-Rays. With improved TV's, sound systems etc. and people creating their own home theaters, a big chunk of box office revenues have given way to DVD/Blu-Ray sales and rentals. Does Fox get the bulk of that money? If so, I can imagine them doing pretty well just on that.

Also, one disappointing thing about the FF was that there was very little quality supporting merchandise such as toys, books etc. The contract details you mention may touch on the reason why and if so, that is another strong reason Marvel should control everything.

But as I say, I'm resigned to my fate, so I'm not going to spend a lot of time thinking about what might have been.

Check out my Fantasy/Sci-Fi novel: Land of Nod, The Artifact

Last edited by Willie Lumpkin; 04-05-2013 at 02:04 PM.
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