Early box-office predictions

[mclay18]

I know it's little under a year until Thor: The Dark World hits theaters, but might as well begin early predictions/speculation about how it'll perform come November 8, 2013.

I think Disney and Marvel were smart to pick that date. The goodwill carried over from The Avengers (and presumably IM3), should give Thor 2 a boost. If the marketing and word-of-mouth is good too, I expect numbers like these:

Opening weekend: $75M-80M
Domestic gross: $230M-$250M
Worldwide gross: $600M-$700M

I don't expect those numbers to be higher, unless Thor 2 really blows people away.

[Raoul Duke]

i think after avengers all the solo films will have a slight jump in box office. thor in particular. i think it will make around the same amount as iron man 2.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by Raoul Duke

i think after avengers all the solo films will have a slight jump in box office. thor in particular. i think it will make around the same amount as iron man 2.

This, basically.

[Godzilla2000]

I am going to astoundingly predict that it's too early to predict how much money this movie is going to make.

[elizah72]

Originally Posted by Godzilla2000

I am going to astoundingly predict that it's too early to predict how much money this movie is going to make.

and I predict your prediction is highly predictable.

[Neo_3]

Originally Posted by Godzilla2000

I am going to astoundingly predict that it's too early to predict how much money this movie is going to make.

Why to early?

[Godzilla2000]

Yep, that's it. You guys have got to name me the most informative poster in this forum.

[American Maid]

Originally Posted by Godzilla2000

Yep, that's it. You guys have got to name me the most informative poster in this forum.

There *is* the "Most Helpful" category in the SuperheroHype awards. . . .

[Neo_3]

ow: 111m
dom: 309m
os: 415m
ww: 724m

[Liam_H]

This movie should get a boost from Avengers but unsure how much until we see how Iron Man 3 does. Plus depending on how Ender's Game is received it could cut into Thor's opening while Catching Fire diminishes its legs two weeks later.

[xeno000]

In order to make realistic predictions*, we really need to see more footage from the film. After they release at least a teaser trailer, which should hit at Super Bowl time, we'll get a firmer idea of the film's plot, appeal and overall quality.


Having said that, I would guess that TDW will make at least TASM numbers WW. Thor is coming off major exposure in his own film and The Avengers, and Chris Hemsworth has also had a stellar couple of years which will continue next year with a few more films before TDW comes out. Who knows, maybe the after-credits scene in Iron Man 3 might be used to promote TDW, too. Marvel has developed a very slick co-marketing strategy that establishes synergy across its shared universe, with each movie serving to promote the others. The MCU is roaring down the tracks like a runaway freight train, gathering momentum with each new film. With a good push from IM3 and excellent marketing, Thor:TDW could barrel through the cineplexes raking in the dough.


* Yes, I know it's all still wild-ass guessing no matter how much information we have. But the more we know, the less wild it becomes. I think.

[Duran Man]

Ww: $600m+

[cherokeesam]

Still waiting on Hemsworth's star to rise. At this point, he's still just Thor to most moviegoers. His marquee value sure didn't help Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and I'd ascribe whatever box office success SWATH had to Kristen more than Chris. I'm hoping Rush will turn into a breakout role for him, but I kinda suspect that movie, unfortunately, is a little too niche to appeal to broader audiences.

I hope TDW does boffo box office, but I'm not making any real predictions until Sep-Oct 2013, after we see how Rush helps Hemsworth's star power.

[Superhero 101]

I think Thor II will make between 600-700 million easily

[Heat Vision]

I see it doing between 650-700M, and I think it will do considerably better than captain america's sequel, for example.
From phase II, it's the movie I'm mostly looking forward by far!

[Kal-E]

OW 110-130m
DOM 350-430m
OS 550-800m

People love Thor and Loki this gonna be huge!!!

[T"Challa]

Basically Im2 numbers..between 620-650 mill ww.

[Lady Marion]

between 600 - 700 mill ww

[Mr. Dent]

OW: $90M
Domestic: $250M
International: $450M
WW: $700M

[Donar]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

OW: $90M
Domestic: $250M
International: $450M
WW: $700M

I think it's a reasonable prediction, and I have the feeling it can make that much.

[BigThor]

I say about 700-800 million, but if it does more then more power to them.

[BigThor]

^ I've upped my max prediction range from 750 M to 800 M.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by BigThor

^ I've upped my max prediction range from 750 M to 800 M.

Why? Nothing significant has really happened.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Why? Nothing significant has really happened.

I know I just been thinking about how much more star powers Hemsworth has nowdays than he did for Thor 1.

Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the 3rd biggest film of all time, that may not translate to Chris' other roles but it will translate for Thor. Plus Thor:TDW will be coming directly off the heels of IM3 another guranteed billion dollar movie.

[DieSmiling]

Originally Posted by BigThor

I know I just been thinking about how much more star powers Hemsworth has nowdays than he did for Thor 1.

Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the 3rd biggest film of all time, that may not translate to Chris' other roles but it will translate for Thor. Plus Thor:TDW will be coming directly off the heels of IM3 another guranteed billion dollar movie.

Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.

I think $200mm is the mark for success domestically -- anything less than that would be very disappointing. I think anything over $225 is a very good success -- $250mm is probably the most realistic goal, I have a hard time seeing the movie go much bigger than that.

Internationally is tougher to gauge -- overseas popularity of 3D and continued international expansion keeps driving up the overseas takes of mega blockbusters. I'd guess $350mm, maybe $400.

Prediction:
Domestic: $210mm
International: $360mm
WW: $570mm