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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-08-2013, 07:34 PM   #1
Mr. Dent
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Default Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Really eager to discuss this. No trailer yet and what not, but we have Redford on the cast and tons of other info. For now I'm predicting:

OW: $85m
DOM: $235m
INT: $310m
WW: $545m

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:54 PM   #2
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I'll be conservative, and predict about 500M WW. Comfortably ahead of what the first movie did, but not vastly so.

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:58 PM   #3
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

500 million worldwide at least, maybe 600-650 million at most.

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Old 04-09-2013, 06:06 PM   #4
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Opening Weekend: It really depends on how well Iron Man 3/Thor 2 are received. I'm gonna say $85M
Domestic: $270
Oversees: $350
Worldwide: $620M

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Old 04-17-2013, 02:51 PM   #5
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I'd say 200 M Dom
and maybe 300 Over

500 WW

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Old 04-17-2013, 03:11 PM   #6
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

500m

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Old 04-17-2013, 03:20 PM   #7
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
Really eager to discuss this. No trailer yet and what not, but we have Redford on the cast and tons of other info. For now I'm predicting:

OW: $85m
DOM: $235m
INT: $310m
WW: $545m
If it can make that, it's a huge success.

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Old 04-19-2013, 10:49 PM   #8
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

510m ww

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Old 04-19-2013, 11:18 PM   #9
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495m ww.

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Old 04-19-2013, 11:43 PM   #10
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Right now, without having seen how any post-Avengers solo flicks perform OR any footage from the film, I'm gonna say...

Opening Weekend: $80M

Domestic Take: $230m

International Take: $260m

Worldwide: $490m

And I predict this prediction will change quite a bit by the time we get to next year, lol.

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Old 04-20-2013, 12:55 AM   #11
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.

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Old 04-20-2013, 04:21 AM   #12
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.
I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.

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Old 04-20-2013, 07:06 PM   #13
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by flickchick85 View Post
I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.
Yeah, it's all but guaranteed to make at LEAST $200M domestically.

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Old 04-24-2013, 11:21 PM   #14
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by flickchick85 View Post
I think it's highly unlikely to do WORSE domestically than the first one. After the Avengers? With Black Widow, Nick Fury and SHIELD on board this time around? And being the first superhero movie out of the gate this time? No way it goes below $180m domestically.
I think it will perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of Marvel Cinematic Universe. But the April release date isn't gonna help it cross the $200 million mark at the domestic box-office. The only movie that was released in April to gross more than $200 million (domestically) is Fast Five.

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Hell, forget Disney, just look at Inception. If a new franchise is pushed by the studio hard and it is really good then it can blow up.
Well Inception was directed by Christopher Nolan and Leonardo DiCaprio was the lead actor. I don't think you can compare that to Guardians of the Galaxy.

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Old 04-25-2013, 12:18 AM   #15
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
I think it will perform like G.I. Joe Retaliation but about 30 to 50% better because its part of Marvel Cinematic Universe. But the April release date isn't gonna help it cross the $200 million mark at the domestic box-office. The only movie that was released in April to gross more than $200 million (domestically) is Fast Five.
I think the April release date is going to help it more than hurt it. April '14 is essentially going to be the month of Captain America, and if it ends up getting good word of mouth, it'll steamroll everything in its path until TASM 2 comes out in May. I mean Iron Man 3 has The Great Gatsby and Star Trek Into Darkness to worry about. Thor 2 has Catching Fire to worry about. The only thing Cap 2 has to worry about is Rio 2. April 4th 2014 is a very favorable release date.

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Old 04-25-2013, 03:10 AM   #16
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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I think the April release date is going to help it more than hurt it. April '14 is essentially going to be the month of Captain America, and if it ends up getting good word of mouth, it'll steamroll everything in its path until TASM 2 comes out in May. I mean Iron Man 3 has The Great Gatsby and Star Trek Into Darkness to worry about. Thor 2 has Catching Fire to worry about. The only thing Cap 2 has to worry about is Rio 2. April 4th 2014 is a very favorable release date.
April is still a quiet month compare to the summer season. Just look at Oblivion's performance this month. Captain America 2 has to be really good to set records in April.

And competition doesn't matter that much to sure-fire blockbuster movie franchises such as Iron Man, Batman, etc. Some movies opened in a very crowded month/weekend and still managed to gross more than 200 to 300 million. Captain America is not even a big movie franchise yet. Its probably going to do decent business, but as far as setting records, earning more than 200 million with an April release date, I'm not sure if this movie achieve that.

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Old 04-26-2013, 10:02 AM   #17
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.
I actually disagree. I think the fact that it isn't coming out in Summer will give it more money than it usually would have gotten.

If you look at the month of April 2014, it's almost dead. Captain America will be #1 for at least 2-3 weeks. This is basically in the Hunger Games spot, and I'm expecting big money from it, especially if it's good. The first Captain America would've done better if it wasn't buried in a sea of similar movies fighting for the same demographic.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Repulsor Blast View Post
why did TFA so poorly in america? you guys are pretty patriotic after all.
July to August 2011 was an oddly competitive time in box office, with Planet of the Apes outperforming expectations.

The film also lacked the big budget advertising push required for a true break out hit. CA: TWS will have neither of these problems against it, and with the Avengers boost that is currently seeing Iron Man match the Avengers in some foreign markets, and blow past it's predecessor, we will see Cap show similar growth.

I'm going with

Domestic- $200-250 M
Foreign- $350-450 M
Worldwide- $550-650 M

I'll probably be adjusting that based on Iron Man 3 and Thor: The Dark World's performances. But I can't imagine 3 of the 4 stars of the biggest non-James Cameron movie of all time not receiving a huge boost in returns.

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Old 11-10-2013, 10:41 AM   #18
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.
So you're predicting a domestic drop after Cap was in the #3 highest grossing movie of all time!? really!?

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Old 11-10-2013, 09:43 PM   #19
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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So you're predicting a domestic drop after Cap was in the #3 highest grossing movie of all time!? really!?
Obviously I like to give my predictions with the lowest/highest number (worst/best scenario) that the film could get.

With Thor: TDW opening less than 100 million in the U.S. and it probably won't gross more than 800 million, I'm curious what impact would Captain America get from this. The Avengers boost is not over 50% for TDW. A couple of people here predicted that TDW would open over 90 to 100 million then 800 million worldwide.

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Old 11-11-2013, 05:09 AM   #20
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Obviously I like to give my predictions with the lowest/highest number (worst/best scenario) that the film could get.

With Thor: TDW opening less than 100 million in the U.S. and it probably won't gross more than 800 million, I'm curious what impact would Captain America get from this. The Avengers boost is not over 50% for TDW. A couple of people here predicted that TDW would open over 90 to 100 million then 800 million worldwide.

The US reviews may have dropped TDW's opening weekend take here. If TWS is better reviewed it might do better in the US.

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Old 11-12-2013, 01:45 AM   #21
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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The US reviews may have dropped TDW's opening weekend take here. If TWS is better reviewed it might do better in the US.
I doubt a lot of people didn't watch TDW because of bad/mixed online reviews.

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Old 04-20-2013, 02:28 AM   #22
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

570-610 million.

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Old 04-20-2013, 05:14 AM   #23
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

600 million. no less.


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Old 04-21-2013, 10:01 AM   #24
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I think Domestically 300 mill

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Old 04-21-2013, 12:19 PM   #25
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Marvel/Disney was very shrewd in choosing to release Captain America: The Winter Soldier in April instead during the much more crowded summer months. Other films have reached blockbuster status by releasing in late winter/spring when there is less competition. Although CA is facing a real contender in Denzel Washington's The Equalizer* in its second weekend, I think that it stands a great chance of opening big and then holding on for a less than 60% drop.

Domestically, TWS could make $250 million or more if it is well received by the public and has the sort of marketing behind it that IM3 has had. In the overseas market it could easily do $400 million+ since TFA took in a better than expected $191M OS. With a boost from TA, Marvel's Chinese marketing partnership and the inclusion of Jackson, Johansson and Redford, this could break out in a big way. My prediction is $650M WW but I rounded up to $700M. In for a penny, in for a pound, right?

* The Equalizer is a remake of the TV show from the 1980s that featured Edward Woodward as a mercenary who switched to protecting ordinary people who were being victimized by criminals. The production has been in some turmoil as the first director suddenly dropped it and filming was postponed. I haven't heard what the status is since then.

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